MLB Weekly Preview: 8/21 – 8/27

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: The Fantasy Baseball Playoffs are only three short weeks away, and for some of you, they have already begun. Alas, for us NFBCers, they started March 30 and go to October 1! While last week was full of tremendous calls offensively and favored the hitters, we saw our SPs take on more water than the Titanic. Things level off this week as not a single game is being played at either Coors Field or Great American Ball Park. However, only one of those hometown teams makes for a good road warrior. Limited teams (7) once again play seven games this week, but the vast majority (22) see six games in ballparks favoring hurlers (See Important Park Factors). And as we see below, our beloved Brew Crew draw the short end of the stick.

Five-Game Week: MIL (MIN – 2, SDP – 3)

In the immortal words of Al Bundy…

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

The Red-headed Stepchildren of Pennsylvania
The other team from Pennsylvania is a worthwhile target this week! PNC Park has been a doubles haven for the Pirates (STL – 3, CHC – 4). While their lineup has been up and down all season long since their torrid start to begin the year, the last 14 days have resembled that beginning. Pittsburgh has hit an impressive 20 home runs during this latest stretch, tied for sixth-best in baseball. The batting average has been – ok. However, their .724 OPS is in the top half of the league thanks to the doubles. Finally, when you look at the opposition on the mound, that’s when things get juicy!

• Drew Rom (Spot start, MLB debut, not a high prospect)
• Adam Wainwright (8.42 ERA, 7.70 xERA)
• Matthew Liberatore (Dead to me and shaking off minor back pain.)
• Justin Steele (Ok, he’s pretty good. Take a moment to thank Mr. Flowers for him!)
• Kyle Hendricks (Effective, but are you scared?)
• Javier Assad (We will discuss him later.)
• Drew Smyly/Hayden Wesneski (Hot Garbage)

Some good arms for the Cubbies, but they are still a staff overall that has allowed a 5.41 ERA in August. The Buccos can take advantage of the matchups this week! 

Two hitters who could be available in your leagues are Ke’Bryan Hayes (52% rostered in Yahoo, 19% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Liover Peguero (3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 21% Fantrax). Both are great streaming options this week. For starters, these righty bats will see up to three starting Southpaws above. I’ve discussed Peguero previously, but to recap ICYMI, he’s a solid source of power and speed. In 76 minor league games this year, he had 13 HR and 21 SB. He smacks around lefties (.807 OPS) but handles his own against righties (.762 OPS). Lastly, Hayes’ OPS has jumped 62 points from 2022 to .721, and his 92.7 MPH average exit velocity puts him in the 94th percentile. His August has been even more impressive. In 13 games, he has 7 XBH, a .934 OPS, and has struck out less than 14% of the time.

Great American Road Warriors
The Reds (@LAA – 3, @ARI – 4) hit the road this week, and you may be thinking to yourself, time to sit your Redleg hitters. Not so fast! Despite being away from Great American Ball Park all week, Angel Stadium and Chase Field are not too shabby and above league average in Statcast Park Factors (SPF). LA is good for homers as we discussed, and Chase Field creates many extra-base hits (XBH). Furthermore, Cincy’s lineup will face six right-handers in their seven contests. Only lefty Reid Detmers takes the mound against them, and he had been taking on water himself before tossing a gem against the Rangers in Arlington. #baseball Otherwise, the other pitching matchups are hit or miss, with Shohei Ohtani taking the mound for the first time in 14 days and a potential return of punching bag and regular pitcher to target, Zach Davies^IL. 

In terms of hitters to target, lefties at the top of the order take the cake. 

TJ Friedl (59% Yahoo, 22% ESPN, 81% Fantrax) is a category stuffer. Will Benson (11% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 43% Fantrax) should see the lion’s share of starts in the outfield. And recent call-up Noelvi Marte (9% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 44% Fantrax; MLB No. 24 prospect / CIN No. 1) can be just the shot of life your team needs even from the right side of the dish. In 47 games this season in the minors against RHP (150 AB), he is slashing .273/.339/.473. By comparison, in 24 games against lefties (46 AB), his slash line is .304/.407/.435. In the limited sample, his plus power tool has been more effective against fellow righties. Either way, his OPS is north of .812, and he’s a great fill-in for the hot corner in shallow leagues while being a dynasty asset.

Quick Hitters…

• BOS (@HOU – 4, LAD – 3): I’ll take Fenway for half the week! Some formidable arms are in opposition, but runs will be scored in these two series. And with six RH starters in seven games, I’d expect Alex Verdugo to be back atop the order and raking, along with fellow basher of baseballs, Rafael Devers. Gotta love this left-hand-laden lineup. Fuck, that’s a tongue twister!
• MIN (@MIL – 2, TEX – 4): Target Field maintains top-10 hitters status with its 102 SPF (114 2B, 129 3B, 111 HR). Beginning their week, American Family Field may be down in overall SPF, but the HR park factor is a robust 109. 
• LAA (CIN – 3, @NYM – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Halos are in a sneaky spot to hit some Hail Marys. Dude, that pun is a stretch, even for me, but you gotta love the triple meaning with football on the horizon. Anyway, while Angel Stadium and Citi Field’s SPFs are fairly neutral, both diamonds lose their fair share of rawhides. There, is that better?
• TEX (@ARI – 2, @MIN – 4): The Rangers get a negative park shift on the road this week, but both parks still play up to the hitters. Texas bats will face six righty starters this week, making it a prime opportunity for Corey Seager and Nate Lowe. 
• HOU (BOS – 4, @DET – 3): Full systems go for your Houston bats!
• PHI (SFG – 3, STL – 3): While Citizens Bank Park may be low in overall park factors, allow me to highlight one special one: 106 HRPF. I can see Nick Castellanos belting a few this week at home vs. suspect pitching staffs. 
• CHC (@DET – 3, @PIT – 4; 2 L / 5 R): Might as well put it on a tee for Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently hot again Seiya Suzuki (47% Yahoo, 44% ESPN, 78% Fantrax), who is hitting .333 over the last two weeks with 4 XBH and 2 HR.
• ARI (TEX – 2, CIN – 4): Lastly, the D-backs are out in the desert all week. Playing against two lively offenses where getting on base and creating plays will be paramount, I like my Arizona hitters this week, especially Tommy Pham (24% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 55% Fantrax)! Plus future studs Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo^IL are just getting their feet wet from time on the shelf. See Chase Field above.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Take advantage of bad teams in good situations! We established last week how the common fantasy manager ignores players from teams down in the standings. That is a mistake, and we saw so with DJ Stewart (3 HR), Daniel Vogelbach (2-for-7, HR, 2 R, 4 BB, 2 K) and main stars Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil and Lindor. This week, the Chicago White Sox (SEA – 3, OAK – 4) are the quintessential example of a BTGS (bad team / good situation). First, they have volume of games on their side with seven. Second, Guaranteed Rate Field checks in as the 11th-best hitters’ park (100 SPF, 106 HR, 103 1B, 103 xBACON – BACON means batting average on contact and includes home runs). Finally, while Seattle poses a threat with Luis Castillo and George Kirby scheduled to pitch, Oakland hurlers do not, possibly minus Paul Blackburn (more on him later).

Hitting leadoff, I love the prospectus of Elvis Andrus (14% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 25% Fantrax) this week. Over the last 14 days, Andrus has hit .326 with 9 RBI and 2 SB. Furthermore, he’s been better in his career against lefties with a .273 BA and .335 OBP. Andrew Vaughn (73% Yahoo, 67% ESPN, 95% Fantrax) has been a disappointment for me, as I saw better things with his full-time move to first base. But the tides are turning. Vaughn has been batting .286 over his previous 14 days with two long flies. We’ve also had a Luis Robert Jr. sighting, as the 26-year-old center fielder continues his impressive campaign. Robert is batting .276 over his last nine games (29 AB) with 4 XBH, 3 HR and 2 SB. The good times roll this week for Robert, the lone shining star in an otherwise dismal season for the Pale Hose. 

See also Athletics, Oakland (KCR – 3, @CHW – 4; 2 L / 5 R). Even at the bottom of the barrel, we can find some gems. Believe it or not, the A’s have the 19th-best OPS, 14th-best xRC+ and 18th-best wOBA in the second half of the season! Not earth-shattering numbers, but there are usable pieces here to plug holes. Especially this week, when they face KC and Chicago staffs that carry ERAs in the bottom third of the league. In August, Kansas City has the 10th-worst ERA in baseball (5.01). Chicago has a better ERA, but their 4.76 xFIP shows the luck. There are plenty of bats to stream here, but the top of my list is Seth Brown (15% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 44% Fantrax).

Places to Avoid

The Kansas City Royals (@OAK – 3, @SEA – 3) offense has been humming as their football counterparts warm their engines. However, not even Patrick Mahomes could throw a football out of Oakland Coliseum. Could he? I digress. The Royals have crappy SPFs this week in Oakland and Seattle. While we have been starting/streaming their hitters during this run, this week is the time to get off the bus. 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 8/19/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Luis Castillo⁶ (@CHW, KCR) ⬅️ The plan was to move to a six-man rotation for Week 22, but Emerson Hancock came out after only two innings on 8/20 with a right shoulder strain. This unfortunately puts the kibosh on SEA’s plans, but Castillo owners around the world could be heard rejoicing! He will likely grab a second trip to the bump this week.
2. Zac Gallen⁷ (TEX, CIN) ⬅️ Arizona will keep Slade Cecconi (SP/RP Bulk) in their rotation for a second start on 8/27, keeping Gallen in turn for five days rest on 8/28 @LAD. Surprising, but I guess this makes sense based on matchup and Cecconi’s recent success despite woeful Triple-A numbers. He has a 6.38 ERA (5.93 FIP) in 103 IP for the Reno Aces.
3. Justin Verlander¹⁸ (BOS, @DET) ⬅️ Astros like fucking with my head; JV takes Cristian Javier’s second start after it was originally José Urquidy. Oh, they joys of being deep in pitching!
4. Aaron Nola²¹ (SFG, STL)
5. Jordan Montgomery³⁰ (@ARI, @MIN)
6. Bailey Ober³⁵ (@MIL, TEX)
7. James Paxton⁴⁵ (@HOU, LAD) ⬅️ There is a slight chance this two-step goes to a returning Tanner Houck^IL (Facial Fracture) if Houck starts on 8/21. In my opinion, it would be best to have Houck go on 8/22. This way you break up lefties Paxton and Chris Sale in the rotation and do not push Houck too hard too quickly. Continue to monitor probable pitchers. UPDATE: It worked out as expected, with JP pitching 8/21 & Houck 8/22. However, Houck will gain a second start since BOS is using Nick Pivetta out of the bullpen. Again, it would probably be best for them to ease in Houck. Maybe Pivetta still works a bulk role this weekend vs. LAD or relieves Houck in a tandem game.
8. Grayson Rodriguez⁵⁹ (TOR, COL) ⬅️ Jack Flaherty (DTD, “General Soreness”) has been cleared to start on 8/27, sending Rodriguez to next week. Grayson is 53 innings over his 2022 total, so Flaherty’s good health is benefical to both!
9. Bobby Miller⁶³ (@CLE, @BOS) ⬅️ Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Ryan Pepiot could be recalled to start on 8/24 @CLE. (He was.) This pushes Lance Lynn to 8/25 @BOS (makes sense) and rest of staff gets an extra day. Miller would have still lined up to pitch on normal rest 8/27, but he will get pushed again to save on his workload.
10. Yusei Kikuchi⁶⁹ (@BAL, CLE)

*Fewer options with teams rolling more six-man rotations, trying to get through the dog days of summer. Also due to some guys returning from the IL, extending rotations.

Other Options: Graham Ashcraft⁷⁰ (@LAA, @ARI), Carlos Rodón⁸⁴ (WSH, @TBR), Mike Clevinger⁹⁰ (SEA, OAK) POV SPECIAL, Michael Wacha¹²¹ (MIA, @MIL), Paul Blackburn¹²⁵ (KCR, @CHW) POV SPECIAL, Johan Oviedo¹²⁶ (STL, CHC), Johnny Cueto^IL (@SDP, WSH)*

*Ryan Weathers subbed for Cueto on 8/21, who hits the IL with an illness. Jesús Luzardo could pick up Cueto’s second start against WSH on normal rest, unless MIA utilizes Weathers or Byran Hoeing again. MIA has JT Chargois listed as the probale pitcher for 8/27 (as of 9pm 8/26). Luzardo should start again on 8/29 (6 days rest). And in the same game, SDP opted to throw Michael Wacha rather than Blake Snell, so Wacha gets the second start. Oviedo loses second start with Luis Ortiz spot start on 8/23.

Danger Zone: Zack Littell^NR (COL, NYY) POV SPECIAL, Javier Assad^NR (@DET, @PIT) POV SPECIAL, Bailey Falter^NR (STL, CHC), Touki Toussaint^NR (SEA, OAK), Ty Blach^NR (@TBR, @BAL), Kyle Muller^NR (KCR, @CHW), David Peterson^NR (@ATL, LAA), Alec Marsh^NR (@OAK, @SEA) BULK GUY, Alex Faedo^NR (CHC, HOU), Noah Syndergaard^NR (LAD, @TOR), Drew Rom^NR (@PIT, @PHI), Allan Winans^AAA (NYM, @SFG) Jared Schuster recalled, and if not used out of the pen, he will start on 8/27 @SFG.

*Along with Assad, either Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski or both in tandem will get two stints on the mound this week. I’m not interested in either, but if Cubs determine that Wesneski will piggyback Smyly, I’m up for starting Wesneski as an RP for cheap-win potential.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUG 21 – 27

“MUST SEE TV!”

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Friday, August 25 – 7:15 PM PT
Spencer Strider vs. Logan Webb
Good thing it’s Nurses Appreciation Night at Oracle Park
cause someone is getting their feelings hurt ?

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays – DTD, Left Middle Finger Discomfort

Vlad Jr. was knocked out of the series finale against Cincinnati. He lost his bat on a big swing against Hunter Greene in the top of the fourth inning. He finished that at bat and took a walk. But when the Blue Jays ran out for the bottom half of the inning, Cavan Biggio took Guerrero’s place at first. With an off day on 8/21, this could all be precautionary to give Vlad the most time for treatment. Continue to monitor.

Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers – 15-day IL, Right Forearm Inflammation (Could be Done for Season)

Gonsolin was placed on the IL with right forearm inflammation, and there’s a chance his season could be over. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tony G will require more than the minimum 15 days and that it’s likely he is done for the season. Apparently, Gonsolin had been experiencing discomfort for about six weeks, but the pitcher and club alike thought pitching through it would do no harm. Imaging this week will reveal the extent of the damage. With the team down multiple starters, Tony tried to be a gamer. After missing time in 2022 for the same issue, Tommy John could be on the horizon. 

Michael Harris, Braves – DTD, Foot Contusion

Harris was scratched from the lineup for the series finale against the Giants after he fouled a pitch off his right foot during an at-bat on 8/19. However, he said after the game that he expects to be back in the lineup on 8/21. Luckily, we won’t have to wait long for confirmation, as Atlanta plays in the first set of games this week. If Harris should miss any time, Kevin Pillar could pick up the scraps.

Ranger Suárez, Phillies – 15-day IL, Right Hamstring Strain (Retro 8/16)

Suárez was scheduled to start the Little League Classic, but he will miss the assignment due to a bout of right hamstring soreness, which cropped up this week in Toronto. The Phillies hoped he would be able to rejoin the rotation during this upcoming week when they decided to skip his scheduled start Sunday, but now that won’t occur. The artificial turf strikes again – please, get rid of it! Phillies already have an in-house replacement, as Taijuan Walker will return from his sabbatical on 8/22. Phillies were operating a six-man rotation so will bump down to five while Suárez hopefully misses only the minimum. 

Anthony Santander, Orioles – DTD, Back Soreness

Santander left his game on 8/18 in the fifth inning with what Orioles manager Brandon Hyde described as “general soreness.” He was out of the starting lineup for the remainder of the weekend. According to MLB.com’s Sonja Chen, the body ailment has been identified to the back. The team hopes Santander will be able to go after receiving treatment and the team’s off day on 8/21. However, have a backup plan intact with the Orioles Tuesday start to the week.

Medical Updates…

• Joe Ryan, Twins: Ryan (left groin strain) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on 8/18, throwing 71 pitches in four innings of one-hit ball while striking out seven and walking two. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli did not commit to whether Ryan would need only one rehab start before returning to the Majors, but he looks likely for activation on 8/26. Otherwise, it will be Dallas Keuchel, who flirted with perfection for six innings last time out. Swan Song?
• Carlos Rodón, Yankees: Rodón (left hamstring strain) will start against the Nationals on 8/22. He threw five simulated innings at the Yankees’ complex on 8/16. Yankees manager Aaron Boone reported that the club was encouraged by how it went.
• Bryan Woo, Mariners: Woo, who first experienced soreness after a bullpen session following his start on 8/3, will start in Seattle’s series in Chicago (proj. 8/23), Mariners manager Scott Servais said.
• Nick Lodolo, Reds: Lodolo made his third rehab start on 8/20 for Triple-A Louisville. His pitch count goal was 60-75 pitches, and he did reach that mark with 61 (34 strikes). That is about all that went well. After tossing three scoreless, hitless innings with six strikeouts and two walks in his second rehab, he dropped down to 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K. Reports are he came out of the start feeling good. The plan had been for activation on 8/26 @ARI, but now we are not quite sure. UPDATE…

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Mike Clevinger⁹⁰, RH CHW (SEA, OAK; 29% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 65% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Clevinger is throwing the ball real well right now. Over his last 23 innings, he has a 1.57 ERA with 18 strikeouts. Now, he has been insanely lucky with a 3% HR/FB rate and a .250 BABIP. But the results have been there. He gets an atrocious A’s squad at the back end of the week. This stream hedges our bets of anyone who is streaming Oakland hitters (See Desperation List above). But strong starts vs. SEA and OAK plus the latter’s hitters doing well are not mutually exclusive.

Honorable Mention: Paul Blackburn¹²⁵, RH OAK (KCR, @CHW; 8% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 37% Fantrax), Zack Littell^NR, RH TBR (COL, NYY; 14% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 29% Fantrax), Javier Assad^NR, RH CHC (@DET, @PIT; 11% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 24% Fantrax) – I’m giving a bevy of two-steppers I like since there isn’t a one-start streamer who I want to point out. Plus, in this day and age, any one of these guys could turn into a one-start pitcher, but hopefully not! Beginning with Blackburn, the matchups are nice, and he’s been pitching well of late. While his win potential is lower than others, he makes up for it in the way he can aid your ratios and strikeout totals.

As for Littell (not Little… not Litrel), he has done a good job of getting weak contact and doing enough to win games. Let’s face facts. Littell is a fill-in for a fill-in, but he gets a sweet two-step this week vs. road Rockies and a struggling Yankees’ squad. Lastly, Assad is pitching very well as he fills in the Cubs’ rotation. Assad hasn’t gotten many strikeouts at the major-league level but has shown the ability to get strikeouts in the minor leagues and as a reliever. He gets two great matchups that also hedge some of our bets. And if Assad finds his strikeout touch, the upside is huge.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!