MLB Weekly Preview: 8/14 – 8/20

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: We are nearing the end, folks. Many have checked out and are gearing up for their fantasy football drafts. But if you are still here with me, well, pat yourself on the back. We’ve had our challenges, handled our injury problems, and are still atop our leaderboards. However, let’s not get too cocky. This week may be our greatest challenge yet! Only six teams play seven games this week, and the same number of teams get the short end of the stick with five due to oodles of Interleague matchups. With such few seven-game weeks, we need to identify edges between six-game options, of which we have a whopping 18. So, let’s get our thinking caps on and hope to God we can access our NFBC teams by 6:40 pm ET come Monday! ??

In the immortal words of Al Bundy…

Five-Game Week: TOR (PHI – 2, @CIN – 3; shame only five games, but GABP keeps studs in play), CHW (@CHC – 2, @COL – 3; same could be said of CHW in Coors if their hitters ever feel like – ya know – hitting), MIN (DET – 2, PIT – 3), PHI (@TOR – 2, @WSH – 3), CIN (CLE – 2, TOR – 3), CHC (CHW – 2, KCR – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Take Advantage of Bad Teams in Good Situations
If you have been following my work over the years, you are familiar with this doctrine of mine. If you are new, let me catch you up; it’s really quite simple. The common fantasy manager is going to ignore players from teams down in the standings. That is a mistake. When a team is at its most vulnerable and is dead in the water, they finally come through while in favorable situations. There is ALWAYS something to play for, and that’s where we find the New York Mets (PIT – 3, @STL – 4). 

Baby Mets Francisco Alvarez (63% rostered in Yahoo, 33% in ESPN, 89% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Mark Vientos (1% Yahoo, 0% ESPN, 26% Fantrax) are playing to show they belong for 2024. Conversely, aging vets like Daniel Vogelbach (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 12% Fantrax) and DJ Stewart (<1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 1% Fantrax) are playing for a spot next season. Meanwhile, guys like Carlos Carrasco are fighting their baseball mortality, but we’ll touch upon pitchers later.

So how favorable is New York’s schedule this week? First, Statcast Park Factors (SPF) favor their hitters. While just past this week for second-best pitchers’ park in the league behind Progressive Field, Citi Field has a 104 HR park factor, 102 Hard-Hit mark and 108 for walks, which put it ahead of the Guardians home ballfield. Maybe we are splitting hairs here, but after the three-game set against Pittsburgh, the Mets travel to St. Louis for four games. Busch Stadium is rocking a 104 SPF, good for fifth-highest hitters’ park. Then, we look at the potential pitching matchups.

• Quinn Priester (RH)
• Bailey Falter (LH)
• Johan Oviedo (RH)
• Adam Wainwright (RH)
• Steven Matz (LH)!
• Miles Mikolas (RH)
• Dakota Hudson (RH)

Do any of those names scare you? Yeah, me neither, but watch Waino spin a rare gem, MF! Play your Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor as usual. And look to stream the guys above who may be available in your league. Ok, maybe not Vogey or DJ in weekly leagues due to two LHPs, but you could use either in a daily H2H and/or deep leagues of 15 or more. Better yet, check out Danny Mendick (<1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 2% Fantrax). All of these streams are to avoid zeros for your home stretch or early playoffs.

Free Eugenio
Alright, it would have been cool if Eugenio Suárez’ (63% Yahoo, 22% ESPN, 89% Fantrax) middle name was Willy. But I checked; it’s not. His middle name is Alejandro in case you were wondering. Either way, Suárez and his battery mates will be free of T-Mobile Park and its pitcher-friendly ways. The Mariners take on the Royals at Kauffman Stadium (103 SPF, t-6th and ahead of GABP) for four games and then wrap the week at Minute Maid Park (99 SPF, t-16th which is still better than T-Mobile’s 96) in a three-game battle with the Astros. Seattle could face up to six righty starters/primary pitchers this week with some openers. And they are rolling right now! Since 7/16, Seattle is sixth in HR (35), eighth in runs (111) and sixth in OPS (.787). Coincidentally, they are winners in 11 of 12 games going into 8/13.

Back to Alejandro… Suárez has been hitting .257 with four doubles, seven home runs, and 23 RBI since 7/6. That includes a stretch of 10 straight games where he drove in a run. Now he’s set to face up to six right-handers, and Suarez mashes right-handed pitching. This season, 15 of his 16 home runs have come against righties, and his .730 OPS is 85 points higher than it is against lefties. He’s hitting up in the top three of a hot Mariners lineup and should continue to rake. Often following Suárez in the order is switch-hitting C/DH Cal Raleigh (65% Yahoo, 31% ESPN, 89% Fantrax). Cal can drain the ole batting average with the best of catchers, but he has the power stroke you may desire. Plus, he generates more power against right-handers. Bold Prediction: Murdered baseballs everywhere and multi-home-run week for Cal!

Quick Hitters…

• NYY (@ATL – 3, BOS – 3; 1 L / 5 R): Aaron Judge is looking like himself over the previous week and will benefit from Truist Park’s hitter-friendly ways! Plus, we’ve seen his mammoth home runs at Yankee Stadium vs. Boston (127 HRPF). If DJ LeMahieu (Sore Right Calf) remains out of the lineup with an IL trip, Oswaldo Cabrera (2% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 30% Fantrax) could gain some traction as a streamer. 
• LAA (@TEX – 3, TBR – 3; 1 L / 5 R): All night games at Globe Life Field (105 SPF, t-3rd) bode well for the roof being open. Also, Angel Stadium has elevated triple and home-run park factors, mostly due to one dude. Yet, Mike Moustakas (17% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 28% Fantrax) continues to be a bright spot and supporting character for our streaming ways. Moose has hit .270 with 14 XBH, seven home runs and 23 RBI since 6/26.
• TEX (LAA – 3, MIL – 3: 2 L / 4 R): Rangers at GLF all week! They do have some stiff pitching matchups, however. 
• ATL (NYY – 3, SFG – 3): Braves home at Truist Park all week? Yeah, sign me up! Both opposing staffs are in shambles, minus their aces, Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb. Atlanta will miss Cole but should see Webb and up to five righties. 
• STL (OAK – 3, NYM – 4): Much like the Mets, St. Louie is a bad team in a great situation this week. While New York is hosting Pittsburgh, the Cards will be at Busch Stadium hosting the listless A’s. They are probably a better option than the Mets this week and could have been written up above, but streaming options are fewer. 
• MIL (@LAD – 3, @TEX – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Great Hitting SPF at Dodger Stadium (101 SPF, t-9th) and GLF.
• LAD (MIL – 3, MIA – 3; 2 L / 4 R)
• COL (ARI – 3, CHW – 3): COORS WEEK with a six-pack of righty opposing starters! Hopefully, this favorable schedule can help jumpstart a struggling Ryan McMahon, who is two for his last 28 at the plate. A mental break on 8/13 helps too. On the flip side, Nolan Jones (30% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 63% Fantrax) has been simmering again with six XBH and a two-home-run game in his previous ten games. He could be another good power source similar to Cal Raleigh above.
• ARI (@COL – 3, @SDP – 4): Will see three LH starters, which means good times for the heart of the order – Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Christian Walker and Tommy Pham (11% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 46% Fantrax). Pham has been finding his groove out in the desert!

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
You can keep the Royals (SEA – 4, @CHC – 3) hitters I recommended last week, or go get them now. Maikel Garcia (38% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 58% Fantrax) is dealing with an upper-body injury. Is this hockey? So, we’ll have to see what happens there, but Garcia is ultimately expendable. However, Michael Massey (3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 30% Fantrax) and MJ Melendez (59% Yahoo, 52% ESPN, 87% Fantrax) are not. Last week, MJ went nine for 22 with hits in every game, including four XBH and three HR. For August, he’s hitting .286 with four HR and eight runs scored already. He chases too much, which could be a problem against Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby, who he is set to face. However, all of these pitchers can pound the strike zone too much, feeding into MJ’s strength. 

As for Massey, he only went six for 25 last week but had three XBH with a home run. He garners buzz in the fantasy industry due to the uptick in power. In his last 16 starts, he’s hitting .281 with 10 XBH and 14 RBI. He’s swiped some bags as well to provide that nice power/speed combo. The K rate has been coming down thanks to an awesome yet unsustainable 7.9% rate these past 16 contests. With an 8.6% barrel rate, his production can and will increase. 

This week KC gets seven games to play with, and volume is king, especially in a H2H playoff. Both Kauffman Stadium and Wrigley Field rank in Statcast’s top 10 park factors for hitters. While the pitching will be stiff from Seattle, the Cubs offer a lesser challenge. There are hits to be found again here! KC will see six righty starters, making Massey and Melendez all the more delectable. 

Places to Avoid

CIN (CLE – 2, TOR – 3): Some tough sits here with all games at Great American Ball Park. You may be tempted to say screw it and play TJ Friedl (56% Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 79% Fantrax), who has been red hot of late. He should see two fellow lefties on the bump yet has handled them well in limited ABs (59). I’m ok with this. But bear in mind, the pitching matchups are stiff with the likes of Logan Allen, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt among the five games. There are better options this week.

Also, I wouldn’t necessarily avoid San Diego (BAL – 3, ARI – 4) with their seven games and the scarcity of such this week. However, we should temper expectations despite the volume. We know Petco Park favors the pitcher, and the arms facing the Friars don’t need the help! At the very least, lefty bats should get base knocks facing seven righty starters this week!

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 8/12/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Zack Wheeler⁹ (@TOR, @WSH) ⬅️ Wheels picks up another start in Washington due to Ranger Suarez hitting the IL.
2. Max Scherzer¹¹ (LAA, MIL)
3. Logan Gilbert¹² (@KCR, @HOU)
4. Tyler Glasnow¹⁵ (@SFG, @LAA)
5. Merrill Kelly²³ (@COL, @SDP) ⬅️ Monitor health as Kelly is still DTD from a right leg cramp. He is likely to take his next turn, but it was the same leg he had issues with last month.
6. Yu Darvish²⁵ (BAL, ARI)
7. Max Fried²⁹ (NYY, SFG)
8. Bailey Ober³¹ (DET, PIT) ⬅️ There is a slight chance Ober could lose his second start if Joe Ryan (Groin Strain) returns for the IL. Ryan is eligible on 8/18 and could return at any point during the PIT series to replace the defunct Dallas Keuchel. MIN sticking with Keuchel for one more start as he keeps Ryan’s seat warm. Super Joe completed a successful rehab on 8/17 (71 PIT) and would lineup for a start with the Twins next week.
9. Nick Pivetta³⁷ (@WSH, @NYY) ⬅️ Big gap in two-steppers after Pivetta!
10. Patrick Sandoval⁵⁹ (@TEX, TBR) ⬅️ Sandoval will pick up a second start this weekend with LAA throwing Chase Silseth on 8/19, leaving 8/20 up for grabs. We will see how things take shape once Ohtani re-enters rotation next week and whether Silseth or Griffin Canning will occupy a rotation spot.
11. Miles Mikolas⁶¹ (OAK, NYM) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL
12. Brady Singer⁶³ (SEA, @CHC) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL

*If Hunter Brown is used out of the bullpen during the Astros’ series in Miami, Houston could revert to a five-man with the off day on 8/17. As a result, Framber Valdez¹¹ (@MIA, SEA) would get a second start. Something to monitor early week for your mid-week changes in NFBC. Brown is three innings away from his 2022 total, so this is a means to an end. Houston’s next off day does not come until 8/31, so Brown should be right back in the rotation if he does not start on 8/18 (seven days rest). Otherwise, we have a shorter list with fewer games this week.

UPDATE: Brown pitched in relief on 8/15 (2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 29 PIT, 15 STK) behind another poor Cristian Javier performance. According to HOU’s plans (as laid out above), Brown’s turn in the rotation will be skipped in favor of J.P. France, and Valdez should gain the second start vs. SEA. UPDATE #2: Brown will start on 8/20 instead of skipping a full turn. As a result, José Urquidy instead will skip to next week, and Valdez will still see second start this week… as of now lol

Other Options: Bobby Miller⁶⁴ (MIL, MIA) POV SPECIAL, Braxton Garrett⁶⁵ (HOU, @LAD), JP Sears⁷⁴ (@STL, BAL), Kyle Hendricks⁷⁹ (CHW, KCR), Logan Allen⁸⁴ (@CIN, DET), Clarke Schmidt⁸⁶ (@ATL, BOS)

Danger Zone: Michael Wacha¹²⁰ (BAL, ARI), Jordan Lyles¹⁴⁸ (SEA, @CHC), Alex Faedo¹⁴⁹ (@MIN, @CLE), Dakota Hudson^NR (OAK, NYM), Emerson Hancock^NR (@KCR, @HOU?)*, Chris Flexen^NR (ARI, CHW), Carlos Carrasco^NR & David Peterson^NR (PIT, @STL), Adrian Houser^NR (@LAD, @TEX)

*Up from Double-A and past his 2022 IP total, Hancock could be sent back down after the first start and getting his cup of coffee. Bryan Woo^IL is eligible on 8/20 to face Houston yet is also above his 2022 IP total. UPDATES: Houser and Wade Miley switch spots in the rotation to give the latter seven days rest. Also, there is some speculation that Mets will call up Joey Lucchesi for a spot start on 8/18 @STL to give Kodai Senga an extra day rest. If so, Peterson will get extra rest too, which he needs lol. I will be streaming Lucchesi in a desperate spot.

MORE UPDATES: Due to 8/17 PPD, DET opts to use a 27th man in 8/18 DH, extending the rest of rotation and pushing Faedo’s next start to next week in case you are using him. Also, Wacha’s & Miller’s second start is lost from MLB moving up their 8/20 contest to 8/19 due to Hurricane Hilary. Garrett will be able to move up on normal rest. In Week 1, we discussed how the new schedule can benefit us when trying to get those games in before teams leave town. But here is an example of how it also can hurt us by squashing some two-steppers. The Rays/Angels series will also conclude with a doubleheader on 8/19. The SPs will remain the same with Glasnow & Sandoval able to move up on regular rest.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUG 14 – 20

“MUST SEE TV!”

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, August 16 – 7:07 PM ET
Aaron Nola vs. Kevin Gausman
If the Real Slim Shady (aka Nola) stands up, this will be a humdinger ??

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Shohei Ohtani, Angels – DTD as SP, Arm Fatigue

Ohtani will be skipped this week as per Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register. This was bound to happen sooner or later. He’s not Superman. As great as Ohtani is, comics are make-believe. Luckily, we still get his bat. Maybe comics are real after all lol. The team hopes he can instead take the ball again on 8/23 vs. CIN in Week 22. Griffin Canning, who is back from the IL, is a candidate to take Ohtani’s start this week. Canning could remain or head to the bullpen if the Halos opt to keep Chase Silseth in the rotation. Silseth has been nasty over his last four starts. Shit, Detmers could be the odd man out. #GoodProblems

Nestor Cortes, Yankees – 15-day IL, Left Rotator Cuff Strain (Retro 8/8)

Less than a week after returning from the IL with a left rotator cuff strain, Cortes lands back on the list with the same ailment. In his return on 8/5, the lefty tossed four innings of one-run ball, fanning eight. While he looked good, remember something. He was supposed to throw one more rehab before his return, but he had to come back early due to Domingo German leaving the team for rehabilitation. Cortes will not throw for at least three weeks, making it unlikely that the 28-year-old can return before the end of the regular season. As a result, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez will see opportunities for the Yankees.

Matt Chapman, Blue Jays – DTD, Right Middle Finger Inflammation

Chapman was removed from the lineup just over an hour before first pitch on 8/13 due to right middle finger inflammation. Chapman was putting a dumbbell back in the weight room and pinched his middle finger between the weight and the rack. The injury doesn’t sound too serious according to reports, and he could be back in the lineup on 8/15 in Philadelphia with the off day to rest the injury. In the meantime, wave it high!

José Abreu, Astros – 10-day IL, Lumbar Spine Inflammation (Retro 8/10)

Abreu got two cortisone shots in his back, which has been ailing him at different points during the season. Now the truth comes out. I suspected so. Maybe, if he gets adequate rest and treatment, those fantasy managers who held strong can finally get some benefit. But these things can be tricky. Jon Singleton will get run at first base and is an awesome story if you haven’t heard. Can he be a fantasy Cinderella? I’m paying attention. ?

Medical Updates…

• Shane McClanahan, Rays: McClanahan is done for the season after moving to the 60-day IL on 8/12 due to left forearm tightness. We knew this was imminent. He will visit with Dr. Keith Meister on 8/14. Options under consideration include Tommy John surgery. He missed the 2016 collegiate season at the University of South Florida following TJS. Surgery would make him miss part, if not all, of 2024. I’m very upset. Meanwhile, teammate Tyler Glasnow (back spasms) looks to return to the mound on 8/14 in San Fran.
• Mason Miller, Athletics: Oh yeah, remember that dude?! Miller (60-day IL, Mild UCL Sprain in Right Elbow) threw live batting practice twice this past week and responded well. He still has a long rehab to go, but Oakland is hopeful he’ll pitch this season.
• Hunter Greene, Reds: Greene (hip) made his third rehab start for Triple-A Louisville on 8/10, tossing 3.2 innings and giving up four hits and three earned runs with three walks and two strikeouts. More important than the results, he fired 61 pitches with just over 50% strike rate. If the plan continues to be four rehab starts before activation, Greene could be back in a Reds uniform by 8/20 vs. Toronto. 
• Michael Wacha, Padres: Wacha (shoulder) should return from the 15-day IL to start on 8/15 vs. Baltimore. Sammy Levitt of 97.3 The Fan San Diego was first to report.
• Marcus Stroman, Cubs: After completing a 50-pitch bullpen session in Toronto on 8/12, Cubs manager David Ross said that Stroman is in line to come off the injured list and make a start against the White Sox on 8/16 at Wrigley Field. Stroman has been sidelined since 8/1 due to right hip inflammation. Javier Assad could still gain a start on 8/18 unless the Cubs go with a four-man rotation again. UPDATE: Stroman suffered setback and will not be activated on 8/16. He is experiencing right rib discomfort and was diagnosed with a right rib cage cartilage fracture (out until at least end of August). Assad starts in his stead on 8/16. Cubs will maintain a four-man, and Kyle Hendricks⁷⁹ (CHW, KCR) picks up a second start this week on 8/20 . Additionally, Drew Smyly or Hayden Wesneski are options to fill the fifth slot when it’s up (8/22).
• Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers: EO (right forearm strain) has progressed to throwing off the mound with a brief bullpen session. He’s not quite throwing at full effort yet, but he’s “ramping it up pretty good,” Bochy said.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Miles Mikolas⁶², RH STL (OAK, NYM; 47% rostered in Yahoo, 22% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Ah, the guy who has probably been the most arguably deserving of a roster spot all season finally makes an appearance in the Pov Special. These are the times why you hold on for one more day. I’ll pause now while you go rinse with mouthwash to get that little bit of puke that just came up. . . Ok, you good?

Moving on, Mikolas has posted a 4.20 ERA with 99 strikeouts in 141.1 innings. He is very dependent on his team’s defense because of his extreme ground ball tilt, but that is helped by the Cardinals being a very good infield defense. He has the easiest of matchups versus the worst team in baseball in the A’s and a bad offense in the Mets (who we can still exploit in our hitting targets above). But dig this. Mikolas has given up two walks since the All-Star Break. Chew on that! Meanwhile, he has 21 punchies since the break in 28.2 IP, moving the K meter slightly more in his favor. I like him if you’re challenging another top team in your league and need just one.. more… arm. ?

Honorable Mention: Brady Singer⁶⁴, RH KCR (SEA, @CHC; 50% Yahoo, 59% ESPN, 85% Fantrax), Bobby Miller⁶⁵, RH LAD (MIL, MIA; 52% Yahoo, 32% ESPN, 79% Fantrax) – Singer too has been up and down this season, but he has been on an upswing recently. Since the All-Star Break, Singer has made five starts with a 2.94 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 33.2 innings pitched. Singer has hot and cold streaks that you want to take advantage of, so he should be utilized in most formats this week where available. But keep in mind, it could all regress pretty quickly.

Meanwhile, Miller has been decent in his rookie season after being thrust into action. I have been expecting regression to happen, as he had only accumulated 35.2 IP at the Triple-A level last year and this before his MLB debut. But even after compiling 69 more innings at the major-league level (28 IP until reaching 2022 total), he has done a lot of his best work since the All-Star Break. In 25.1 innings over five starts, he has a 2.84 ERA and 24 strikeouts. He has two middle-of-the-road matchups this week, but he also has one of the better teams in baseball supporting him. Roll the dice with my man Bobby! See above in Two Start Pitchers.

One-Start Pitcher: Johan Oviedo¹⁰⁵, RH PIT (@NYM; 34% Yahoo, 21% ESPN, 69% Fantrax) – Oviedo was blasted last game by the Reds, but before that contest, he had quality starts in four of five starts dating back to 7/15. Mind you, these were not world-beater offensive teams in the Brewers, Tigers, Padres, Angels and Giants, but neither are the Mets at this point. It’s good to play both sides and hedge your shares. Since the All-Star Break, Oviedo has had 34 strikeouts in 36 IP. If he can keep the walks at bay, he should return to another quality start. It’s a get-away game and a day game after a night game for both clubs. There should be watered-down lineups.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!