MLB Weekly Preview: 6/26 – 7/2

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: The second half of the fantasy baseball season is upon us! An astronomical amount of homestands and road trips this week to take advantage of, so let’s keep tabs on those Important Park Factors below. There are so many damn angles with a plethora of favorable hitters’ parks vs. sneaky pitchers’ parks. While the sneakiness is nice for our arms, it’s worthwhile to pay attention to the factors concerning the normal lineup you are running out there weekly. The great news is all teams play at least six games this week, with six clubs playing seven games (4 AL / 2 NL). 

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

I Love LA
Both teams calling Los Angeles their home have prime targets in their lineups. For starters, the Angles (CHW – 4, ARI – 3) are one of the six clubs with seven games on the docket. The homestand is on! Angel Stadium is showing league-average Statcast Park Factors, except when you look at two valuable ones – Triples & Homers! And with seven right-hand starters scheduled, the only question you may have is, do I start Shohei Ohtani as a hitter or pitcher (faces CHW)? I side with the hitter despite the prime matchup on the hill. For those of you who can do both…

For streaming purposes, give fellow lefty batter Mickey Moniak (5% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 30% in Fantrax Dynasty) a look. Over the last 14 days, Moniak is hitting .414 with seven extra-base hits (29 ABs). Furthermore, he slashes .366/.395/1.164 against righties this season in 82 (of 89) ABs. He should see a ton of plate appearances this week.

Finally, the Dodgers will be away from LA all week (@COL – 3, @KCR – 3). Only four other teams have scored more runs on the road than LA has. Their .228 team batting average isn’t ideal, but they’ve hit 63 home runs on the road to make up for it. Only the Braves have hit more with 64. The Rockies and Royals have the worst and fourth-worst pitching staffs in baseball. Colorado (5.49 ERA) and Kansas City (5.17) trail only Oakland for the worst ERA. 

James Outman (35% Yahoo, 24% ESPN, 71% Fantrax) was an early-season streaming darling, and he is back in our lives this week. In three career games against Colorado, he’s 5-for-11 with four extra-base hits and six RBI. Two of those games were in LA. Coors Field can make him look like April James Outman. Also, Max Muncy^IL is taking live at-bats as he works his way back to health. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he should be activated on 6/27 to begin our week. If this comes to fruition, Muncy has hit 13 HR with 37 RBI in 42 career games at Coors Field. Against the Royals, he’s hitting .455 with a home run and four RBI on the road. I would implant him in your lineup and wait for activation confirmation. 

Quick Hitters…

• DET (@TEX – 4, @COL – 3; 3 LHP): Tigers have the second-softest hitting schedule with a 73.9 average PP Stuff⁺. Globe Life Field is t-3^rd in SPF (105; also, click here for retractable roof data & guidelines in the Target section). Meanwhile, Coors be Coors ?
• CHW (@LAA – 4, @OAK – 3; 3 LHP): Chicago will have average-to-poor Park Factors, according to Statcast.
• TEX (DET – 4, HOU – 3; 3 LHP): See GLF above. 
• HOU (@STL – 3, @TEX – 3; 3 LHP): Delicious park factors! I have beaten GLF into the ground by now, but Busch Stadium is an even better hitters’ paradise this season according to Statcast (105, t-3^rd). Astros have the third-softest hitting schedule with 83.3 average PP Stuff⁺.
• MIA (@BOS – 3, @ATL – 3): Fenway still boasts the league’s second-best SPF, currently 110. Not far down, Truist Park is t-6^th at 104. 
• NYM (MIL – 4, SFG – 3; at least 5 RHP, maybe six if Ross Stripling pitches on 7/2): I told you to avoid My Muts last week, but this week, we can go back to an offense that is beginning to hit the ball hard consistently and drive in runs. I like the pitching matchups this week, and while Citi Field has done hitters no justice, the home team has done well (117 wRC last 17 home games). 
• ATL (MIN – 3, MIA – 3; 6 RHP): See Truist Park above.
• COL (LAD – 3, DET – 3)

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Kauffman Stadium is t-6th with Truist Park! The Royals (CLE – 3, LAD – 3) will have their challenges in terms of opposing starters, but they can take advantage of three young arms in Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Bobby Miller. Miller could get right this week, but it’s been two starts that have brought his fantasy managers back down to earth. #Rookies Furthermore, Julio Urías could return this weekend (see IL Report) and is bound to show some rust. Maikel Garcia (35% Yahoo, 6% ESPN, 46% Fantrax) makes for a viable streamer. Garcia has a .319/.376/.451 slash line over the previous 30 days with seven extra-base hits and eight stolen bases. I’ll take a .800+ OPS from a streamer eight days a week.

• Additionally, sometimes the best ability is availability. Look at streaming some Milwaukee Bats (@NYM – 4, @PIT – 3; 2 L / 5 R).

Places to Avoid

The Nationals are on the road this week in Seattle and Philadelphia. We are accustomed to avoiding T-Mobile Park (92 SPF, last). However, Citizens Bank Park has been playing down this year to the hitter (93 SPF, tied for third-worst). 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 6/24/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers put together an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Kevin Gausman³ (SFG!, BOS)
2. Framber Valdez⁴ (@STL, @TEX)
3. Spencer Strider⁶ (MIN, MIA)
4. Luis Castillo⁷ (WSH, TBR)
5. Zac Gallen⁸ (TBR, @LAA)
6. Justin Verlander²⁴ (MIL, SFG)
7. Sandy Alcantara²⁵ (@BOS, @ATL)
8. Dylan Cease³⁴ (@LAA, @OAK)
9. Sonny Gray³⁵ (@ATL, @BAL)
10. Yu Darvish⁴¹ (@PIT, @CIN)
11. Garrett Whitlock⁴⁹ (MIA, @TOR)
12. Michael Kopech⁵⁰ (@LAA, @OAK)
13. Jordan Montgomery⁵¹ (HOU, NYY)
14. Reid Detmers⁵² (CHW, ARI)
15. Taj Bradley⁵³ (@ARI, @SEA)

Other Options: Andrew Heaney⁶¹ (DET, HOU), Ranger Suárez⁶⁵ (@CHC, WSH) POV SPECIAL, Jameson Taillon⁸⁶ (PHI, CLE)

UPDATE: Martín Pérez⁷⁰ will have his second start moved to the series finale vs. HOU on 7/3 with Cody Bradford’s spot start on 6/29. Move gives extra rest plus has Jon Gray³⁶ & Nathan Eovaldi¹⁴ facing HOU now.

Danger Zone: Brady Singer⁹² (@TEX, @COL), Rich Hill¹¹⁰ (SDP, MIL), Trevor Williams¹¹¹ (@SEA, @PHI), Paul Blackburn¹³² (NYY, CHW) POV SPECIAL, Julio Teheran¹³⁵ (@NYM, @PIT), Matt Manning¹⁴⁵ (@TEX, @COL)*, Gavin Williams^NR (@KCR, @CHC)*, Cole Irvin^NR (CIN, MIN), Matthew Boyd^NR (@TEX, @COL), Jhony Brito^NR (@OAK, @STL), Brandon Williamson^NR (@BAL, SDP), Connor Seabold^NR/DTD (LAD, DET), Colin Rea^NR (@NYM, @PIT), David Peterson^NR (MIL, SFG)*

*Manning is likely to start on 6/27 in his return from a foot fracture. He is someone to keep an eye on. Also, Tarik Skubal is not far behind. Skubal could possibly return on 7/4 vs. OAK (Week 15) and should be on a roster. You can take your shot on young WIlliams, but the rookie right-hander had a rocky MLB debut against Oakland of all teams. While the Royals nor the Cubs are juggernauts, they are more formidable than the A’s lineup. Williams is the No. 15 MLB Pipeline prospect (CLE No. 1). However, there’s some disparity, as Fangraphs has him ranked 73 (CLE No. 5). UPDATE: Cal Quantrill^IL will return on 6/30, removing Gavin’s second start. However, Cal Q replaces Logan Allen, who heads to Triple-A Columbus to work on control issues.

UPDATE: MIL will use a six-man rotation with Adian Houser due to busy schedule.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 26 – JULY 2

UPDATE: TOR is moving up their open spot/bullpen game to 6/28 to give rotation an extra days rest. Chris Bassitt slides to 6/29, and José Berríos moves to 6/30 vs. BOS.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

Medical Updates…

• Shane McClanahan, Rays: McC played catch on 6/24 at Tropicana Field and threw a short bullpen session on 6/25. The Rays are going to take advantage of Monday’s off-day to give the left-hander a bit of additional rest. Instead of pitching on 6/28 against the D-backs, the Rays will shuffle their rotation to give him extra rest and plan to start him in the series opener against the Mariners on 6/30.
• Julio Urías, Dodgers: Urías made a rehab start on 6/25 with Single-A Rancho Cucamonga, and it could be the only one he’ll need. He fired four strong innings, giving up only two hits and one run with one walk and eight punchies. He tossed 46 strikes in his 60 pitches on the day. Unless they want to see the pitch count rise in a rehab setting, he’ll be back this weekend.
• James Paxton, Red Sox: Manager Alex Cora said Paxton, who exited his start on 6/24 with right knee soreness, is “feeling well” after getting treatment. The veteran lefty lasted four innings against the White Sox. However, he believes he’ll be able to make his next start, tentatively set for 6/30 @TOR.
• Michael Wacha, Padres: Wacha was skipped on 6/24 due to shoulder fatigue. The team refers to the move as “maintenance,” and he should only miss just the one start before returning to his usual spot in the rotation (6/30 @CIN).
• Marcus Stroman, Cubs: Stroman left the London Series finale early due to a blister on the index finger of his throwing hand. He lasted just 3.1 innings before the injury forced him out of the game. The blister was caught early, so he has a decent shot at making his next start and avoiding the IL. However, we should continue to monitor. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Ranger Suárez⁶⁵, LH PHI (@CHC, WSH; 40% rostered in Yahoo, 30% in ESPN, 82% in Fantrax Dynasty)

Honorable Mention: Paul Blackburn¹³², RH OAK (NYY, CHW; 6% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 37% Fantrax)

One-Start Pitcher: Dane Dunning⁷⁹, RH TEX (DET; 52% Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 70% Fantrax)

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!