MLB Weekly Preview: 6/5 – 6/11

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: CHW shift to 1 L / 5 R & BOS shift to 1 L / 6 R with Nestor Cortes IL bound (see below).

NOTES: We are approaching the halfway mark of the season, and the grind is real. Your team’s identity is taking form, and by now, you should have a handle on whether or not your team(s) has a realistic shot at a title. If you’re sitting up at the top, welcome! The air is fine up here, and this week’s insights will keep you on top, like always. But if you are bringing up the rear, I’m here to help you claw out and make moves. If it’s hopeless, Fantasy Guru has unveiled our comprehensive NFL Draft Guide. I don’t expect many of you to be in this last category, but get in on the action anyway!

Toronto and Houston see seven games this week in the American League. The two clubs will play a massive four-game set to begin the week. It should be a collection of fine pitching performances and solid offensive displays! We’ll dive into that series and the two teams’ schedules in our targets below. Besides these AL squads, Boston and Tampa Bay will now see seven games thanks to the PPD from 6/2 rescheduled for their mutual off day on 6/5. Don’t get it twisted. It’s not like the National League is swimming in seven-game weeks either (MIL, CIN, CHC only). As a result, we see the majority of clubs (22) play six games. Only Seattle draws the short end of the stick with five games. San Diego has the benefit of a wrap-around game with the Cubbies. 

Five-Game Week: SEA (@SDP – 2, @LAA – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

North of the Border, South of the Border
As referenced, the Blue Jays and Astros will play a four-game series. Ok, I know Houston isn’t South of the Border, but neither is this spot. Beginning with the Jays, they’ll also host the Twins for a three-game set to round out the week. Rogers Centre is skyrocketing up the Statcast Park Factor chart below, now sitting 13^th. Their overall PF is league average at 100, but the wall modifications in the offseason are finally having an effect (106 HR). Toronto will face six right-hand starters in their seven games, giving a feather in the cap of Daulton Varsho. 

It has been an inauspicious start to Varsho’s Jays career. With a slash of .216/.279/.381 and a 0.37 BB/K (20.4% K rate), it’s been challenging to start him even at Catcher, where he qualifies. Yet, he’s still on pace for 27 HR / 21 SB and is riding an eight-game hit streak heading into 6/5 (two of his nine long flies). Another new Blue Jay, Brandon Belt (3% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 23% in Fantrax Dynasty), is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. In the previous 24 games, he’s hitting .353 with ten extra-base hits. 

At the onset, we discussed how the ‘Stros will share the Rogers Centre for four games. After their series is over, Houston will travel to Cleveland for three. Progressive Field represents a negative park shift, but only marginally. Like Toronto, the Astros will face six right-hand starters in their seven games. Fire up, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker! Lost in the shuffle may be Alex Bregman, who has hit his fellow righties well in his career and has been crushing them this season (.269/.360/.429, 132 wRC+). Not much to stream here, but you can take a shot on Jake Meyers (1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 10% Fantrax) in deep leagues of 14 or more if you need OF help.

Great American Smallpark
Another team starting seven games this week is the Cincinnati Reds (MIL – 1, LAD – 3, @STL – 3). And their offense is rolling right now. After the wrap-around game with Milwaukee, the Reds welcome the visiting Dodgers, whose first two starters are Tony Gonsolin and Noah Syndergaard. Gonsolin may have a 1.77 ERA, but his 5.19 xFIP shows it has been largely luck. Syndergaard has been awful this season and a shell of his former self. Then it’s off to St Louis to face yet another unexciting core of pitchers whose 4.48 xFIP as a team was the ninth-worst in baseball for May. (BTW, TOR has the eighth-worst at 4.50.)

In terms of streamers, if Spencer Steer (70% Yahoo, 42% ESPN, 85% Fantrax) is still available on your waiver wire, swoop him up! Since May 15th, Steer is hitting .391 with six doubles, one triple, three home runs, 15 RBI, and 14 runs scored. Steer even threw in two stolen bases on 6/3 for shits and giggles. Most noteworthy, he’s rocking a 14.5% strikeout rate. 

If Steer is rostered already in your league, Matt McLain (55% Yahoo, 23% ESPN, 71% Fantrax) is viable as well. Since McLain has been called up to the big club, all he’s done is rake. He has 9 XBH in his 18 games while hitting equally as good off righties as he has lefties. This is important, as the Reds will face five righties to two lefties this week. What’s even more impressive is that as good as he’s been at Great American Ballpark (.270, three doubles, two HR), he’s been arguably better on the road, hitting a crazy .395. Look for McLain to stuff the stat sheet this week. As long as he’s hitting at the top of the lineup, I’m a fan of this stream.

Finally, daily leaguers can enjoy Jake Fraley’s power bat for five games this week. Fraley had a massive day on 6/3, going 3-for-4 with a home run, two runs scored and three stolen bags.

Quick Hitters…

• NYY (CHW – 3, BOS – 3): Will see five RHPs in six games. Jake Bauers (<1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 5% Fantrax) is viable and hot.
• LAA (CHC – 3, SEA – 3): Homestand, and Angel Stadium is t-ninth in overall Statcast Park Factor (112 HR, 111 3B). They’ll also face five RHPs in six games. 
• ATL (NYM – 3, WSH – 3): It’s getting hot and humid at Truist Park, and Brave hitters will see five righties to one lefty.
• CHC (@SDP – 1, @LAA – 3, @SFG – 3): An odd week gets even more peculiar with the Cubbies facing three left-hand starters plus potentially Sean Manaea (and others) in a bulk relief role due to Alex Wood hitting the IL. 
• SFG (@COL – 3, CHC – 3): ALL 6 RHP!
• COL (SFG – 3, SDP – 3): COORS!

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
The Brew Crew play seven games with the wrap-around series in Cincinnati (@CIN – 1, BAL – 3, OAK – 3). Sometimes, the best ability is availability due to volume of games, especially during a week with so many six-game teams. They have good pitching matchups for the most part. Baltimore does not pitch well away from Camden Yards. Their staff has given up 131 runs in May, the 11^th most in baseball. Also, they have a very middle-of-the-road strikeout rate at 22.4%, and their Pitching⁺ number being at 100 proves their starters are just average at best. And then there’s Oakland.

Folks may have let go of Milwaukee’s offensive players. Statcast Park Factors are good, especially in HRs at home and the one game in Cincy. The Reds will also be starting a rookie, Andrew Abbott (see Two-Start Pitchers). Consider streaming Owen Miller (48% Yahoo, 15% ESPN, 54% Fantrax), who has become one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over the last two weeks, he’s hitting .306 with two doubles, two home runs, and four stolen bases. Striking out just 15.6% of the time with a .354 OBP helps him immensely in points leagues, as well as in OBP leagues, obviously. He faces plenty of righties this week (five of the seven games), which have been the victim of every home run he’s hit this season. Look for him to be a solid power/speed combo.

Places to Avoid

The Minnesota Twins (@TBR – 3, @TOR – 3) hit the road this week for a vicious road trip. Not only are all six games against opponents with great starting rotations, but the Twins also have the third-lowest team batting average on the road in baseball (.221). They also have the second-most strikeouts on the road at 295. Now they face Tampa Bay and Toronto squads who’ve been rolling. TBR has a 3.48 home ERA, fifth, and TOR has a 3.10 home ERA, the best in baseball this season. Carlos Correa (DTD, Plantar Fasciitis – see IL Report) is avoidable due to health status alone. Yet, I would still sit him even if he’s good to go. Away from Minnesota, he’s hitting .194 with a .653 OPS and 83 wRC+. His 30.7% hard contact rate is the second-lowest of his career. There isn’t anything enticing about Correa at this point.

Also Avoid…

• Seattle Mariner hitters… duh!

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 6/3/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Shane McClanahan⁴ (@BOS, TEX)
2. Kevin Gausman⁷ (HOU, MIN)
3. Logan Gilbert¹¹ (@SDP, @LAA) ⬅️ Gilbert nets a second start thanks to SEA giving extra rest to Bryce Miller⁵⁸, who will now start on 6/12 vs. MIA. Miller now has seven days of rest to shake off back-to-back rough outings, albeit vs. NYY & TEX, two formidable foes. Before that, Miller had a 1.15 ERA and still carries a 0.97 WHIP.
4. Mitch Keller¹⁷ (OAK, NYM) ⬅️ Keller will gain a second start since Luis Ortiz¹³¹ was used in relief on 6/7 due to a Roansy Contreras¹⁵⁰ blow-up. Ortiz was coming off a rain-shortened start last time out. PIT moves up Rich Hill¹¹⁰ to 6/9 and Johan Oviedo¹¹⁷ to 6/10 (both on normal rest). As a result, Keller moves up to 6/11 on normal rest.
5. Aaron Nola²¹ (DET, LAD)
6. Shane Bieber²⁵ (BOS, HOU)
7. Zach Eflin²⁶ (MIN, TEX) ⬅️ Rays recall Yonny Chirinos to make the start on 6/8 and fill hole in their rotation. This move pushes Tyler Glasnow to 6/9 vs. TEX and gives the staff an extra day of rest. However, Eflin’s next start will now come on 6/12 @OAK.
8. Bryce Elder³³ (NYM, WSH)
9. Freddy Peralta³⁶ (BAL, OAK)
10. Lucas Giolito⁴³ (@NYY, MIA)
11. Nestor Cortes⁴⁴ (CHW, BOS) ⬅️ Cortes likely heads to the IL with a shoulder injury. He is expected to undergo an MRI on 6/5 or 6/6 in New York to determine the severity of the injury. Clarke Schmidt⁸⁷ (CHW, BOS) will start in place of Cortes and net the two-start week. Wednesday’s starter has not yet been announced. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are possibilities, according to Bryan Hoch.
12. Kyle Gibson⁶¹ (@MIL, KCR)

*Tony Gonsolin⁴² could see two starts if Julio Urías^IL doesn’t return on 6/11 (See IL Report). UPDATE: LAD will likely throw a BPG on 6/11 rather than Tony G. since Urías is not ready.

Other Options: Braxton Garrett⁷³ (KCR, @CHW) POV SPECIAL, Martín Pérez⁷⁴ (STL, @TBR), Blake Snell⁷⁵ (CHC, @COL), JP Sears⁸² (@PIT, @MIL) POV SPECIAL, Brayan Bello⁸³ (TBR, @NYY)

Danger Zone: Louie Varland⁹⁰ (@TBR, @TOR), James Paxton¹⁰¹ (@CLE, @NYY), Carlos Carrasco¹⁰² (@ATL, @PIT), Kyle Hendricks¹⁰⁶ (@SDP, @SFG), Taijuan Walker¹⁰⁸ (DET, LAD), Zack Greinke¹⁰⁹ (@MIA, @BAL), Alek Manoah¹¹⁵ (HOU, MIN)*, Johan Oviedo¹¹⁷ (OAK, NYM), Adam Wainwright¹²² (@TEX, CIN), Tommy Henry^NR (@WSH, @DET), Julio Teheran^NR (@CIN, OAK) POV SPECIAL, Brandon Bielak^NR (@TOR, @CLE), Jake Irvin^NR (ARI, @ATL), Joey Wentz^NR (@PHI, ARI), Andrew Abbott^NR (MIL, @STL)*, Dinelson Lamet^NR (SFG, @DP), Hayden Wesneski^NR (@LAA, @SFG)*

UPDATE: BOS will roll with Matt Dermody (spot starter) on 6/8 to give rest of staff an extra day of rest. As a result, Paxton shifts to next week, tentatively 6/12 vs. COL. Also, Garrett Whitlock⁶⁵ will now pitch against the Yankees in the Bronx. Dermody is nothing special with a 4.50 Triple-A ERA in eight game starts (nine appearances) but does have strikeout upside. Too bad CLE never strikes out (second-best K rate on the season, best last 30 days). Irvin loses second start due to 6/8 PPD. Josiah Gray⁷⁶ will now face the Braves in Atlanta. ? Same applies for Henry, and Merrill Kelly¹⁸ will presumably now take the ball in Detroit on 6/9.

*Manoah’s fall has been heard around the fantasy community. From finishing third in the AL Cy Young Award race a year ago to 1-6 with a 5.46 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP and a 48-to-41 K/BB ratio in 12 starts (now sent to Florida Complex league to work on mechanics), I’ve never seen such a fall from grace. FanGraphs published a wonderful article examining how this happened and why there is no end in sight.

*Abbott is MLB Pipeline’s No. 95 Prospect, FanGraphs No. 90. He will have his contract selected from Triple-A Louisville to give Hunter Greene⁶⁰ time off to help ease a stiff hip (see IL report). Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that not only will Abbott make his MLB debut, but he will get a longer-term look in Cincy’s rotation. ? If successful, he could replace Brandon Williamson or Luke Weaver, assuming Greene is good to go after time off.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 5 – 11

“MUST-SEE TV!”

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Friday, June 9 – 6:38 PM PT
Luis Castillo vs. Shohei Ohtani
Apple TV+ ??

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Hunter Greene, Reds – DTD, Hip Stiffness

Greene was originally scheduled to start on 6/6 vs. LAD. However, he was moved back to 6/11 to face the Cardinals because of right hip stiffness. Uh, does anybody remember Greene had a 6.97 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and only 7.84 K/9 against his hometown team in his rookie year (10.1 IP)? I smell bullshit, aka innings management. However, keep tabs on his health throughout the week in case something serious is going on here.

UPDATE

Wander Franco, Rays – DTD, Hamstring

Team trainers are still monitoring Franco after tweaking his left hamstring in the seventh inning during the first half of this weekend’s doubleheader. The star shortstop finished the game but was noticeably careful while running from second to third base on a Brandon Lowe single and did not play in Game 2. Update: Franco was once again out of the lineup on 6/4. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Franco is receiving treatment and has a shot to play on 6/5. Also part of the update was the news that Lowe is now DTD with a back issue (previously reported as left leg discomfort) after being scratched on 6/4 as well. 

Carlos Correa, Twins – DTD, Plantar Fasciitis/Left Heel

Correa was once again out of the lineup on 6/4. He has now missed four of five games, and as I wrote above, he belongs on your bench. In the meantime, Kyle Farmer (5% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 26% in Fantrax Dynasty) continues to benefit at shortstop. However, he does not make for a good play this week.

Xander Bogaerts, Padres – DTD, Sore Left Wrist

Bogaerts’ ailing left wrist has bothered him for several weeks now. He was lifted early on 6/3 and given the finale off to rest. He believes he can avoid a stint on the injured list. Hopefully, we get some news before their series finale with the Cubs!

Michael Conforto, Giants – DTD, Left Heel Bruise

Conforto remained out of the lineup for the fourth straight game on 6/4 against the Orioles, though he got in a pinch-hitting appearance on 6/1.

Jose Altuve, Astros – DTD, Right Oblique

Altuve was held out of the lineup Saturday and Sunday after injuring his right oblique taking an awkward swing in Friday’s win over the Angels. Until Altuve can show he’s in game shape, Mauricio Dubon is hitting at the top of the lineup and playing second base.  

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles – DTD, Lower Back Soreness

Henderson exited his game on 6/3 against the Giants before the bottom of the third inning and was held out of the lineup again in the series finale. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde described the move as a “precaution” and labeled Henderson as day-to-day. “It’s been just kind of lingering the last few days,” Hyde said. “He tried to play through it and the beginning of the game made it a little more sore.”

Medical Updates…

• Eduardo Rodriguez, Tigers: News broke over the weekend that ERod could be out for six-to-eight weeks after seeking a second opinion on his left index finger pulley rupture. He will complete a period of rest for the next 10-14 days (til 6/8-12) followed by two-to-four weeks of light recovery. The timetable of 6-8 weeks before throwing at high intensity is similar to Adam Wainwright in 2008 and Randy Dobnak in 2021.
• Julio Urías, Dodgers: Urías (left hamstring strain) threw a 25- to 30-pitch bullpen session off the mound at Dodger Stadium on 6/3. His next step will be to throw three or four innings in a simulated game on 6/6 in Cincinnati. If that goes well, he could return on 6/11 @PHI. UPDATE: Urías threw a bullpen session on 6/8 and is still having some issues with hammy. He will return to throwing off flat ground and will need a rehab start. Return date is uncertain.
• Anthony Rendon, Angels: Rendon (left groin strain) is expected to be activated from the IL on 6/6 or 6/7, though the latter is more likely, according to Angels manager Phil Nevin.
• Willy Adames, Brewers: Assuming he experiences no concussion symptoms during his rehab assignment, Adames could return to the Brewers as early as 6/8 against the Orioles.
• José Alvarado, Phillies: Alvarado (left elbow inflammation), who is currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, could return to the Phillies this week.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Braxton Garrett⁷³, LH MIA (KCR, @CHW; 15% rostered in Yahoo, 5% in ESPN, 60% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Garrett sports a 4.22 ERA, which is below his 5.16 xERA. However, his 3.32 xFIP and 3.58 SIERA tell a different story. Don’t be swayed by the xERA, as that measure requires much more than 53.1 IP to prove predictively accurate. Furthermore, Garrett has been missing bats at an above-average 23.8% rate (9.11 K/9, 31.1% CSW). He also doesn’t hurt himself via the free pass with a great 5.3% BB rate (2.03 BB/9, 4.50 K/BB). Regarding batted ball data, Garrett has an excellent 48.4% ground-ball rate vs. a 27.0% fly-ball rate. The hard-hit rate is concerning at 47.2% (tenth percentile), but when you are keeping the ball on the ground, it hurts less.

KCR vs. LHP: .247 BA (18^th), .158 ISO (16^th), .317 wOBA (17^th), 98 wRC+ (21^st)
CHW vs. LHP: .263 BA (13^th), .177 ISO (eighth), .333 wOBA (13^th), 112 wRC+ (11^th)

• The White Sox have not been their usual lefty-crushing selves. They have above-average numbers, but are you afraid? I’m not. Since 5/8, Garrett has had a 2.67 ERA in 27 IP with 32 strikeouts and a 0.96 WHIP. 

Honorable Mention: JP Sears⁸², LH OAK (@PIT, @MIL; 7% rostered in Yahoo, 3% in ESPN, 41% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Diving deeper, Sears is a great stream in leagues of >12. He has been good in his last four starts, throwing 22.1 innings with a 2.42 ERA and 16 strikeouts. While he doesn’t get many opportunities for wins because he is on the A’s, he does line up against the worst team in baseball against lefties in the Brewers and another team that has struggled versus lefties over the last 30 days despite their winning ways. MIL has the worst BA in the league vs. LHP. And while PIT has the tenth-best BA against southpaws, their .145 ISO ranks 24^th, .331 wOBA ranks 14^th, and 107 wRC+ ranks 13^th. Oh, and MIL’s numbers in those areas are .132 (27^th), .281 (last) and 74 (29^th), respectively.

One-Start Pitcher: Kyle Bradish⁷², RH BAL (@MIL; 23% rostered in Yahoo, 8% in ESPN, 67% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Seems like I’m picking on Milwaukee, but I’m really not… just a huge Bradish mark. He’s a guy I can’t quit. But if we remove his start against the Yankees on 5/23, he has only given up six runs combined in his four other starts since 5/12. Those four games came against the Pirates, Angels, Rangers and Giants – some good teams. If Bradish has his fastball and slider working, an even better start is in store for him this week!

Don’t Get Fooled: Julio Teheran^NR, RH MIL (@CIN, OAK) – If you’ve played fantasy baseball for the last decade-plus, you know the name few can spell correctly. Hope I did!?! You may find yourself scrolling past Teheran’s name, seeing a sparkling 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP through two starts back in the big leagues. Most noteworthy, he resembled his former self against a formidable foe in Toronto. You also may find yourself placing a $10 bid on the 32-year-old former Brave. Well, I’m here to…STOP YOU! Friends don’t let friends stream former Staten Island FerryHawks. Yes, he played for the Atlantic League while making his comeback. For more, read this ‘Ray’s Ramblings’ if you’re still jonesing for Julio!

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!