Its rookies talk at FantasyGuru.com. We will give an update on a bunch of rookie performers in 2023 as we start to wind up our coverage of the 2023 fantasy baseball season with just a week left in the season.
Andrew Abbott has gone 8-5 with a 27 percent K-rate in a strong rookie season. Hit the skids down the stretch though with one outing in six of five innings pitched with a 5.96 ERA.
Logan Allen was recently placed on the IL by the Guardians after a successful run led him to a 7-8 record and 3.81 ERA. He produced less than a K-per-inning, walked 3.45 per nine and had a 1.40 WHIP. Solid but unexciting season.
Francisco Alvarez has the homers (23) but hasn’t hit lefties at all (.564 OPS) and hasn’t done much for a while now with a terrible .588 OPS in the second half with a .175 average.
Javier Assad posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 19 relief outings and 10 starts. Doesn’t miss bats with a 20 percent K-rate, but he was really effective down the stretch as a starter (3.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Brett Baty has had a disappointing first season going .215/.281/.329 with a 28 percent K-rate. Nothing to get excited about yet.
Will Benson went 11/14 with a .851 OPS over 311 PA for the Reds. He never played against lefties, but he was damn effective against righties.
Tanner Bibee ended the year on the IL, but it was a hell of a season as he went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 141 punchouts over 142 innings. He was everything that was advertised and the arrow is pointing up.
Taj Bradley has impressed the metrics community with some changeup growth of late, but he allowed six runs in his last outing and has permitted 15 runs and eight homers his last 23 innings. Pieces are here for something significant, but there needs to be a lot more polish.
Will Brennan coming up on 450 PA with the Guardians at .264-5-41-40-13 as his bat played like Kwan but not his abiliyt to get on base (.297 OBP).
Hunter Brown has hit the proverbial wall – face first at about 34 mph. His ratios are up to 5.12 and 1.36 (ERA/WHIP), and his second half has been awful with a 6.68 ERA and 2.52 HR/9 rate to tarnish a solid start to the year.
Corbin Carroll is two RBI from a rookie season of .285-25-75-110-50. Yep, he’s gone 25/50 with 111 runs scored in what has been an even better season than any rational person thought possible. He’s a star.
Triston Casas has established himself as a fantasy fixture. He’s hit 29 homers in 159 career games, and this season he posted a .856 OPS over 132 games with 24 big flies. Works the count, has a plan, drives the baseball.
Oscar Colas failed. In the end, he’s appeared in 75 games with a .098 ISO and .571 OPS.
Henry Davis has had a disappointing season at the dish (.214/.300/.350) and he’s only caught twice meaning he will enter next season as a useless fantasy asset only qualifying in the outfield.
Elly De La Cruz has been exactly as predicted here. In 93 games he’s been terrific at 11-36-62-33. Alas, his 34 percent K-rate has him batting .229 with a .295 OBP. MVP level talent, but needs to make more contact.
Yainer Diaz lost playing time when everyone got healthy in Houston, but his bat was special for a catcher eligible player at .285-23-60 over just 372 PA. Had a poor .620 OPS against lefties, but he was an outright star against righties (.943 with 20 homers).
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been solid as expected slashing .279/.335/.478 with 11 homers in 218 PA.
J.P. France has a 3.83 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.3 K-BB% rate over 136.1 effective innings. Needs to be substantially better for long-term fantasy relevance and his second half has been rough (.286/.345/.431 with a 1.41 WHIP).
Sal Frelick has a solid .357 OBP over 210 PA, but his overall game has been very Benintendi-like at .263-3-24-29-7. Not a bad rookie effort, but certainly not up to the level that his skills suggested were possible.
Maikel Garcia played shortstop 13 times and third base 99 times batting .275 with 23 steals. Just didn’t drive the baseball though with a .090 OPS and 4.0 barrel rate, though his 50 percent hard-hit rate shows some promise.
Zack Gelof blew away any reasonable expectation with a phenomenal first season of .273-13-29-347-14 in 63 games. Yeah, he posted numbers that equate to a 30/30 season, hence the use of the term phenomenal.
Kyle Harrison has made six starts with 31 punchouts in 29.2 innings. Alas, eight homers have led to 19 runs allowed in what has been a rough introduction to the bigs.
Gunnar Henderson started slowly but that is an afterthought at this point as he’s gone .258-27-91-98-10 with a .821 OPS. Toss in 79 games at short and 80 at third base and you’ve go the AL Rookie of the Year right here.
Josh Jung was as advertised in his first full season at .274-37-70-74 over 115 games as an injury cost him about a month.
Matt McLain enters next season qualifying at two spots (37g 2B, 53g SS), which will help his bat to play up even more (.290-16-50-65-14 in 89 games). That .290/.357/.507 slash is gorgeous.
Matt Mervis got into 27 games with a .531 OPS in a disappointing campaign. Does have a .932 OPS at Triple-As so perhaps he gets a shot next year.
Bobby Miller ended up making 20 starts to date with a 10-4 record, a 3.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in what has been an impressive rookie campaign as he’s basically lived up to all the hype.
Bryce Miller has done his best Joe Ryan impersonation going 8-6 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The 22.2 K-rate is just average though, and lefties have mashed him (.298/.355/.542).
Bo Naylor has a .787 OPS on the year but he’s been special the last month (.309-4-11-13-4 with a 1.043 OPS over 20 games) before hurting his thumb. A very successful first season with the bat.
Ryan Noda wasn’t even drafted in AL-only leagues, but the Athletic went deep 15 times with a .369 OBP over 122 games.
James Outman was white-hot, ice-cold, and kinda all over the place. In the end, he’s gone 20/15 with 80 runs scored in an extremely successful rookie campaign.
Eury Perez threw more innings than the 110 I predicted at 128, a significant step above the 77 innings he threw last year. He was extremely effective with a 29 percent K-rate and 1.13 WHIP, though he’s gonna have to up the workload per outing (91.1 IP over 19 starts).
Brandon Pfaadt is 2-9 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. His stuff/future is much brighter than that, but hardly anything he’s done this year can be considered a legit positive.
Grayson Rodriguez went to the minors, and came back a new man: 4-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 12 starts with a 24 percent K-rate and 16.7 K-BB%.
Esteury Ruiz – for more, see this Ramblings piece.
Kodai Senga – not really a rookie – was everything the Mets needed him to be as he went 12-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 194 Ks in 161.1 innings pitched with a start to go.
Spencer Steer has played 70 games at first, 47 at third, 42 in the outfield and 16 at second base. He might enter next year qualifying at four spots which is special for a guy who also went .270-22-83-71-15 this season.
Ezequiel Tovar has been productive (.259-15-73-77-11) without doing anything to truly stand out. That 0.15 BB/K rate stinks too.
Brice Turang has 26 steals, but the bat hasn’t played (.221/.289/.306).
Mark Vientos has a mere .630 OPS over 214 PA with a huge 30 percent K-rate. Has been solid in September at least with a .797 OPS.
Jordan Walker has woefully missed on the expectations game, but a .274-16-48-47-7 effort over 439 PA isn’t bad. Has been better than average, but his skills haven’t been on display enough in year one as he sets the floor for a growth year in 2024.
Joey Wiemer played solid defense, but his .645 OPS doesn’t work in fantasy.
Gavin Williams is our third Guardians starting pitcher on the list and he’s made 16 effective starts with a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Nice late kick too though a lot of outings have been 5.0 or fewer innings.
Bryan Woo seems to have solved lefties a bit which is paramount for a guy with a .402 wOBA against them this season. Has crushed righties (.217 wOBA).
Anthony Volpe has a really bad slash line of .208/.284/.387, like really bad. That said, he’s played very day and is a steal away from a 20/25 season. His fantasy value is higher than his real world value at the moment.
Masataka Yoshida – not really a rookie – has gone .288-15-71-70-8 with a .785 OPS in a solid first season. However, he really slowed offensively in the second half (.660 OPS) and he DH’d an awful lot (46 games).
