We all have our wish lists.
No matter whether you’re a 10-year-old kid writing to Santa or an “adult model” with an OnlyFans profile, we all have em.
This one is mine for Fantasy Baseball.
The offseason can be a cold, dark, lonely place. Nevermore so than this past one. Major League Baseball barely made it through a 60-game season thanks to the pandemic. Glass-half-full thinking says the season was traversed, as was the postseason, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned our World Champions. Still, yet, were any of us sure the 2021 season would start on time? And with what rules would the game be played by? We are still waiting for some of these answers. There is so much uncertainty in this world, now more than ever. However, what I learned from last year’s pause in action was there really is no such thing as a pause if you’re a fantasy baseball player, at least if you are a serious one. Much like the players themselves, I stayed loose, and I stayed active.
By active, I mean staying on top of team and players news, even if articles were few and far between. Utilizing the extra time, I crammed past seasons’ numbers to establish firmer baselines, going back three years or even five where I could. Identification of trends made me view certain players in a different light. In a sense (a very broad sense), the delay in the 2020 season was a blessing. I was able to create a more refined Wish List of targets, ascertain those targets in drafts, develop balanced rosters to battle a choppy season, and capture victories. After the season was complete, I went right back to cram mode for 2021. A dedication towards a 24/7/365 system has me prepared for whatever may come this season and ready to once again turn lemons into lemonade.
Now, I firmly believe that if you have something great (or at least what I perceive as great), you share it! Below, you’ll find player breakdowns of my more sought-after targets at each position with some corresponding data. Disclaimer: The following commentary and analysis do not represent the thoughts and views of Fantasy Guru Rankings, Ray’s Players to Target or Vlad’s Draft Book, although great minds do think alike from time to time. Read on at your own risk!
Fantasy Baseball Draft Wish List – The Pitchers
Zac Gallen – Arizona Diamondbacks, RHP
Many may not grasp Gallen’s historic 2020 season due to a lack of national audience. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention fairly early. However, the 25-year-old Bishop Eustace Prep product became the first pitcher to begin a career with 23 straight starts allowing three runs or fewer (2019-20).
Gallen completed his superb 2020 season with a 2.75 ERA. This, after posting a 2.89 ERA in eight starts for the D-backs in 2019. If you remove two consecutive innings where he allowed a total of eight runs – his final inning on 9/7/20 and the first on 9/12 – the ERA would have been 1.77. Gallen was ninth in votes for the NL Cy Young Award and most certainly would have finished higher if not for that two-inning stretch. Everything was magnified in 2020 with only 60 games, so this stood out more. Over a full 162, a blunder here or there will make less of an impact for his season stats and our fantasy baseball teams.
This young stud is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Gallen relies primarily on his fourseam fastball (93.2 mph), throwing it 47.6% in 2019 and 39% in 2020. It was an effective pitch, holding batters to a .189 BA, .279 SLG and .278 wOBA. The rate drop was represented in a rise of changeups thrown (84.9 mph), which became his clear put-away pitch (30.9%) with an 8.3 mph difference and the same look coming out of the pitcher’s hand. Tack on an 81.2 mph curveball, which he throws two mph harder than previously, and middle-of-the-road cutter, and Gallen brings a nice repertoire to the mound.
Remember that 1.77 ERA Gallen narrowly missed in 2020? It was exact to the mark he set in 2019 while with the Miami Marlins affiliate, the New Orleans Baby Cakes – coolest name in sports! With a 3.62 xFIP, some luck was involved but still fine marks to warrant a call-up. Ironically, 3.62 was exact to his xFIP in 2020. Go figure? The SIERA mark (Skill Interactive ERA) was 3.88 and not too far off his xFIP. All of this means an expected rise in the ERA but not enough to keep me off Gallen (10.54 K/9). The price tag is fairly rich (NFBC ADP 40.95, 1/1-present) but one I’m willing to pay for my SP1, while others foolishly reach higher for pitching, and I’m grabbing my hitters.
Dylan Bundy – Los Angeles Angels, RHP
The Angels right-hander was the team’s ace in 2020. At 28 years old, Bundy went 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA and 72 strikeouts over 65.2 innings in 11 starts. The expected stats were solid, sporting a 3.75 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. A former top prospect with breakout potential, it all came together with the Halos last year. His shift from the AL East and Camden Yards helped but isn’t the whole story. He changed the pitching repertoire, throwing breaking and offspeed pitches more, especially his slider, and the fastball less. The heater lost a bit of average velocity (1.1 mph), which was odd considering the pitch was thrown less. Also, with a shortened season, one would think Bundy lets it fly in the sprint. However, all of his pitches were down by an average of 1.8 mph. So the key question is, why?
The answer: commanding his pitches with better control.
Or at least I believe this is the reason. Free passes were down considerably; his BB/9 lowered to 2.33 from 3.23 the year prior and were appreciably lower than his five-year average of 2.95. And even with the lower velocity, he posted the highest K/9 mark of his career at 9.87 (5-year average: 8.92). His Whiff% was still 69th percentile, mostly due to his wicked slider. He threw the pitch 25% of the time, and it offered a 50% Whiff rate. Furthermore, his wOBA allowed was at an all-time low (.263), and the xwOBA supported this statistic (.258). Maybe it was just another oddity of a shortened season, but in case I’m wrong, keep an eye on the gun this season. But I firmly believe Bundy, throughout the past two seasons, has shifted from hurler to pitcher.
The task will be much harder in 2021 with an additional 15-20 starts, but by all accounts, Bundy is up for the task and has the complete faith of management to be a leader on his team. That’s the kind of guy I want on my fantasy team (NFBC ADP 110.02, 1/1-present)!
Luis Castillo – Cincinnati Reds, RHP
If I do decide to grab a pitcher early, Luis is my man! Castillo and teammate (for now) Sonny Gray are the only two qualified starters with a 50-plus percent ground-ball rate and 25-plus percent strikeout rate across the last two years. He gets it done with a live 97.4 mph fourseam fastball and a plus changeup (88.2 mph), one of, if not the best in the game. The Whiff% was 40.1 in 2020 and 48.0 in 2019 (overall 83rd percentile in Whiff%). Since he turned the corner in 2019, Castillo ranks 11th in FanGraphs pitching WAR. Also in this same period, he is tied for 14th in strikeout rate and tied for 15th in adjusted ERA+ among starters with at least 150 innings.
Let’s go back to the ground-ball rate and K-rate. Castillo has been very good at both missing bats and getting ground balls. Having elite ratios in both departments at the same time is rare. Since the start of 2019, 110 starting pitchers gathered at least 1,000 total swings and 350 balls in play from opposing hitters. Twenty of the 110 posted elite whiff-per-swing rates of at least 30%. Eighteen different arms got ground balls at a >50% rate. Just two pitchers landed in both categories – Castillo and Stephen Strasburg – and Stras missed most of 2020. Castilo ranks third overall in both Whiff Percentage & Ground Ball Percentage.
via MLB.com
Castillo has been mired in trade talks this offseason, and do you blame the other 29 teams based on the numbers above. At this point, I believe Castillo is set to begin the season with Cincinnati, but removal from home games at the sandbox that is Great American Ball Park could only be a good thing. He has maintained a slightly above average HR/9 of 1.14, and that number lowered in 2020 (0.64). With the number of ground balls he throws and a potential shift to a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark, this figure too could become elite. Other factors are certainly involved, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. In my opinion, the Reds would be foolish to trade the 28-year-old as he hits his prime.
Castillo’s Steamer projections slate him to be among baseball’s six best starters (about as valuable as Yu Darvish and more valuable than Blake Snell). Castillo has been going in the early-to-mid third round, and if the projections hold true, you can get draft-day savings from Darvish (NFBC ADP 17.52, 1/1-present) with a better prospectus.
Framber Valdez – Houston Astros, LHP
One of my most prized FAAB acquisitions last year was Framber Valdez. He demonstrated finer control in 2020, with a 1.12 WHIP and 1.41 ABA, as well as better command (26.4% K-rate, 5.6% BB-rate). All of this led to a 3.57 ERA, but it could have been even better with a 2.94 xFIP and 3.23 SIERA. As a result, his NFBC ADP, which was off-the-board this time last year, has skyrocketed to 97.18 (1/1-present). Some of this also has to do with the strikeout (9.68 K/9, a rise of roughly one strikeout per nine). Most of this has to do with the last vision we saw of Valdez – in the postseason, he threw 24 innings with a 1.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 24 strikeouts.
A glance at Valdez’s batted-ball profile shows a great job keeping the ball on the ground with a -0.8-degree launch angle. However, the hard-hit rate was 37.7% with an average exit velocity of 91.4. Both marks were in the fifth percentile and below in 2020. With very little of this contact in the air, the damage was minimal, but he’ll have to maintain his ground-ball rate (62.8%). I like his chances, as his 2020 GB/FB was 3.08. A solid number, but it was still less than his professional career average of 3.55, so the GB% can and should rise even more.
Some may say luck was involved, as Valdez threw his 93.1 mph sinker and 80.5 mph curveball a combined 88.3% of the time. I’ll admit, adding more fourseam fastballs and changeups would do well to vary the batter’s eye and timing. However, his .312 BABIP allowed was .016 above his career average. More work on reducing hard-hit contact and better defense behind him would do well for all of us.
There is some concern about what his inning totals may be in 2021. In Ray’s ‘Players to Avoid’ piece, he discusses a few concerns per his draft-day cost and makes several good points. If I have to draft Valdez in the top-90 overall, I still may be hesitant despite being slightly higher on the player. The fact he has only thrown more than 120 innings once is telling (140 in 2018), but consider he threw 94.2 innings between the regular and postseason in 2020 (the most in baseball). Based on his overall projections, 151-158 innings is possible with a low of 125 by ZiPS. I’m targeting Valdez in the 100-110 ADP range or seventh/eighth round along with Bundy. It would be great to get them back-to-back.
UPDATE: Valdez fractured the ring finger on his pitching hand, fielding a comebacker on 3/2. Even though it happened in the first inning, he was able to come back out and pitch the second, only discovering the injury afterward. The Astros have yet to divulge much more, but it seems likely he could miss at least the first month of the season. A report from Jon Heyman suggested season-ending surgery was on the table, so you’ll want to exercise extreme caution if you’re drafting right now.
Honorable Mention: Dane Dunning – Texas Rangers, RHP
Texas traded Lance Lynn to the White Sox in the offseason for Dunning’s services. Consequently, he gets a nice home park shift to Globe Life Field. The former top-5 ChiSox prospect now ranks 91st overall after a decent showing in 2020 when he received the early call to the bigs: 3.97 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 4.33 SIERA, 1.12 WHIP, 1.56 ABA, .239 BABIP allowed and a 24.6% K-rate. The walks were his enemy (9.2%) and will need to be improved upon at this level to match minor-league success and lower his ABA. Furthermore, the innings are a concern. He threw 144 back in 2017 at the Single-A level, but since then, he has thrown 120.1 combined, as he missed the 2019 season due to Tommy John Surgery.
Dunning makes for more of a deep keeper/dynasty league draft target and is an arm I am high on for the future, but don’t be surprised if he makes some noise in 2021.
Amir Garrett – Cincinnati Reds, LHP
Garrett is a relief pitcher who I have been fond of over the past three years. His 85-mph slider is filthy and a wipeout pitch (55.7 Whiff%, last two years). It is a stark difference from his fourseam fastball, clocked at 95.8 mph, and sinker (93.9 mph). After giving up a .453 BA and .717 SLG on the sinker in 2019, he dropped the 2020 rate in which he threw the pitch from 31.3% to 3.7% and instead threw more fourseamers. The results were remarkable with a 12.76 K/9 and 37.7% K-rate. However, the walks were still an issue (3.44 BB/9, 10.1% BB-rate) and something he needs to clean up. All total, Garrett amassed a 2.45 ERA, 2.76 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA in 18.1 IP.
Garrett will be vying for the closer role now that Raisel Iglesias has been traded to the Angels. Amir comes into the season confident, saying “It’s mine to lose. I’m just going to go in there and take it. Not a lot of things are earned, and nothing is given. I’m just going to go and take it.” You gotta love the bravado, especially for a ninth-inning man. Particularly dominant against fellow lefties, he boasts a .043 BA with 12 K from last season. Right-handers were still only hitting .231 and had 14 strikeouts. Most importantly for the closer’s role, he set down the first batter with regularity in 18 of his 21 appearances.
Lucas Sims, newly acquired Sean Doolittle, and even Tejay Antone are options to close, as well, although Antone may be better suited for a Bulk Reliever role. I’m most confident in Garrett, and he can be had at bargain-basement prices (NFBC ADP 300.78, 1/1-present).
Ryan Pressly – Houston Astros, RHP
Saving the best for last with this high-upside closer!!! In this article, Ray gives the numbers over the last three years: 12.42 K/9, 4.93 K/BB, 1.07 WHIP, 1.84 GB/FB, 2.55 SIERA and 2.51 xFIP. I copy and paste them here because this level of dominance must be documented yet again! As of recently, the 32-year-old hurler had 15 saves with a 3.43 ERA and a 4.14 K/BB rate across 21 innings for the Astros in 2020. Pitching coach Brent Storm was being coy when saying Pressly is “the leader” to close games for the ‘Stros in 2021. Really? Stop it! Who are you gonna turn to, Pedro Baez, Joe Smith or non-roster invitee, Steve Cishek? Now, if you tell me Enoli Paredes is in the mix, then I’d be concerned. But not by much.
Pressly’s NFBC ADP is up to 121.50 (1/1-present), so we are not fooled. Pressly can be had in the eighth to 10th rounds of drafts and will pay off handsomely.
This is my last piece for the MLB Draft Guide. I am confident Ray, Vlad and myself have you prepared to CRUSH your fantasy baseball drafts. Best of luck, and I will catch y’all for the Weekly Preview series. Till then, Happy Hunting!
