2026 Fantasy Football Running Back Outlooks

Jeff Mans profiles NFL RB options in his latest installment for the 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Guide!

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PORTILLO’S

A full menu of elite deliciousness 

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

Bijan has finished as RB9, RB3 and RB2 in his first three years in the league. He was third in the NFL in touches among RBs last year. The Falcons hired a bellcow believer head coach, and the loss of Tyler Allgeier opens up an additional 157 touches. Robinson had a 19.9% target share last year with Michael Penix as his QB. Tua Tagovailoa has a 29.6% target share to RBs over the last two years, so if he winds up starting, Bijan will almost certainly be the top-scoring running back in fantasy football in 2026. Remember that Bijan is still just 24 years old and just entering his prime years. 

Ashton Jeanty, Raiders 

You will be surprised that I have Jeanty this high, but I urge you not to miss out on him this year if at all possible. Remember Bijan Robinson’s rookie year of 2023, where he finished as RB9 and racked up 246.3 fantasy points? There were a ton of people who screamed to fade him the following season and missed out on his 341.7 fantasy point RB3 season as a result. 

The Raiders made a ton of upgrades this offseason, including hiring Klint Kubiak as head coach and Rick Dennison as offensive line coach. They also upgraded their offensive line, adding center Tyler Linderbaum, guard Spencer Burford, and drafting guard/tackle Trey Zuhn. Jeanty’s rookie season was eerily similar to Bijan’s, as he racked up 245.1 fantasy points in an RB11 campaign. A deeper look at Jeanty’s season, however, shows that he was 11^th in yards after contact, 6^th in missed tackles forced, 7^th in elusive rating, 3^rd in broken tackles and 3^rd broken tackles per rush attempt. Now with some help around him, Ashton Jeanty is poised to be a top-five fantasy running back in 2026. 

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

There is an argument for Gibbs to be the first running back off the board this draft season, and it’s hard to disagree with that sentiment. But our job is not to glaze these players; it is to be honest and consistent with our analysis. Gibbs’ 2025 season was tremendous, and now that he no longer has David Montgomery to contend with, Gibbs may see even more touches in 2026. But is that a good thing? 

After Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties last year, Gibbs’ snap share went from 60.5% to 71.5%, his touches per game went from 15.8 to 19.8, and his fantasy points per game went from 18.2 to 24.5. So that seems good, of course, but after the massive 55.4 fantasy point game against the Giants in Week 12, Gibbs’ numbers plunged. Though his fantasy points remained strong at 17.8 per game, his yards per carry dropped to 3.1, his yards per touch dropped to 5.6, his EPA per touch dropped to -0.08, and he broke just two total tackles in those final 117 touches. In fact, despite the great season, Gibbs’ yards per rush attempt, yards per touch, rushing success rate, receiving success rate and yards after contact were all career lows. 

What this signals to me is that it is possible that Gibbs thrives in a committee setup and will wear down dramatically as he did in 2025 if forced to be a feature back. The depletion of the Lions’ offensive line, the addition of Isaiah Pacheco (not a serious threat, just another body) and a third play caller in as many seasons has me placing Gibbs just below Bijan and Jeanty this season. 

CHICK-FIL-A

Newer, sexier and rarely disappointing 

James Cook, Bills 

Cook has hit another level ever since the Bills hired Joe Brady to run their offense. Now that Brady is the head coach, we don’t expect him to slow down whatsoever. Over the last two years, Cook has had the 6^th most rushing yards, 4^th most rushing TDs, 6^th in total yards, 3^rd in total TDs and 6^th in total fantasy points. The combination of offensive additions, including DJ Moore and a healthy Dalton Kincaid, along with a depleted defense in Buffalo, has me more optimistic for the Bills’ scoring potential this season. 

Omarion Hampton, Chargers 

His rookie season was off to a terrific start before Hampton broke his ankle in Week 5 against the Commanders. He returned in Week 14 and was a lot less effective than he was prior to the injury. Still, Hampton’s season pace would have put him at 245-1,149-10 rushing and 75-68-432-2 receiving, which equates to 298.1 fantasy points. That would have been the 7^th most fantasy points among running backs last season. The return of LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt from injury and the additions of center Tyler Biadasz, guard Cole Strange, guard Jake Slaughter and tackle Travis Burke give the Chargers one of the most formidable offensive lines in the league now. The arrival of new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel also launches Hampton’s fantasy value into orbit. 

IN & OUT

Great burgers, but the name implies it could be over soon

De’Von Achane, Dolphins 

Before he signed a four-year, $68 million contract extension, I wanted nothing to do with De’Von Achane this year. But now it appears as though he will not only stay in Miami but also be the backbone, if not the entirety of the Dolphins’ offense. Only Bijan Robinson has more targets, and no running back has more receptions than Achane over the last two years. The only reservation that we should have is whether his body can hold up to a hefty workload behind a shaky (at best) offensive line. Achane’s value drops immensely in a non-PPR format, however. 

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers 

McCaffrey’s stat ledger is pure comedy over the last seven years. He has played in 16, 3, 7, 16, 16, 4 and 17 games while finishing as RB1, RB54, RB38, RB2, RB1, RB69 and RB1 during those campaigns. So, it is clearly all or nothing with CMC, and any opinion to the contrary is pure pretending. CMC is now 30 years old and coming off the second-most touches of his career. I have no problem with rolling the dice on CMC as your RB1 this season; he just shouldn’t be your first pick (first round) of your draft. 

Jonathan Taylor, Colts 

When healthy, Taylor is one of the most talented and productive running backs in the league. Through 10 weeks last year, Taylor was the #1 RB in fantasy football and had racked up an incredible five games of 3+ touchdowns. In fact, his 273.9 fantasy points over those 10 games would have been good enough to be RB9 over the full season. But then Daniel Jones went down with injury, and the Colts’ offense fell apart. Taylor went from averaging 27.4 fantasy points per game over those 10 games to just 12.6 fantasy points over the final seven games of 2025. 

The good news is that he’s one of a few backs in the league who do not have to share snaps or touches whatsoever. The bad news is that the Colts lost RT Braden Smith, and Taylor has played in all 17 games just once in the last four years. 

MCDONALD’S

Old steady standbys who somehow seem to keep up with the times

Saquon Barkley, Eagles 

At age 29, Saquon is definitely in the “danger zone” of age for a running back, but he’s still one of the few who are assured of hefty workloads game after game. We faded him last year after his monstrous 482-touch season in 2024, and considering he was a top-five overall selection, that proved to be a wise idea. But the bloom is off the Saquon rose this year, and we are seeing him being taken in the mid-to-late second round, which is far more affordable for this version. The tush push is not nearly the threat that it was two years ago, and that will only help increase Barkley’s touches and fantasy production. 

Kyren Williams, Rams

If you fear Blake Corum, then please keep reading, as I am never going to put up with that bullshit again on these servers. 

Sure, Kyren played 8% less of snaps and had 55 fewer snaps in 2025 than he did in 2024. But his yards per rush attempt, yards per touch, total yards, rushing success rate, receiving success rate, targets, receptions, receiving yards, EPA per rush attempt, EPA overall and attempts per broken tackle all went up in 2025. All of that, including the absolute pandemonium freak-outs every Sunday afternoon when Blake Corum would take some touches away, resulted in a grand total of 8.8 fewer fantasy points in 2025 compared to his 2024 season. 

Over the last two seasons, Kyren Williams has the 7^th most rushing yards, 6^th most rushing TDs, 5^th most touches, 7^th most total yards and 8^th in fantasy points among running backs. He is simply as steady as it gets for this range of running back and might even be a value if he continues to fall to the late third round. 

DAVE’S HOT CHICKEN

New on the scene, incredibly tasty, but might not be for everyone

Kenneth Walker, Chiefs

The combination of talent and opportunity for KWIII in Kansas City is just too much to ignore. Walker almost single-handedly led the Seahawks to a 14-win season, 33 points per game in the playoffs and a Super Bowl 60 victory. He was rewarded by having his backup, Zach Charbonnet, steal 9 TDs from inside the five-yard line, and then not offering him a contract extension at any point. So, Walker moves on to Kansas City, where Andy Reid envisions him as the backbone of the Chiefs’ offense at least until QB Patrick Mahomes is back to full health. Kansas City has had its running backs rush for 10+ touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, with just the frail Isiah Pacheco and washed-up Kareem Hunt carrying the rock. 

Jeremiyah Love, Cardinals 

The sky is the limit for the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Love is a big, strong, physically imposing running back who is as effective at catching the ball out of the backfield as he is running it. The only issue here is just how big a workload will he get in year one after Arizona spent big money to bring in Tyler Allgeier and re-sign veteran James Conner this offseason? I have no doubt that Love will establish himself as the leader in this backfield, but when that happens may wind up being later rather than sooner. 

Travis Etienne, Saints 

The Saints struck quickly this offseason, signing Etienne to a four-year, $48 million contract. At the time of the signing, we assumed that meant the end for Alvin Kamara, but evidently, they are planning on keeping the veteran around another year. New Orleans has a real bad habit of keeping these novelty players around, and that is the only thing keeping Etienne out of my top 10 at RB this year. 

RAISING CANES

Does one single thing incredibly well over and over 

Derrick Henry, Ravens 

We were pushing it with Henry back in his age-30 season, back in 2023, his final year in Tennessee. After back-to-back 16 TD seasons with the Ravens, it’s extremely hard to fade him in 2026. Henry has rushed for almost 400 yards more and three more TDs than any other RB over the last two years. Despite this, he is just RB4 during that span, mostly because he doesn’t catch the ball whatsoever. For this reason, Henry makes for an ideal RB2 on your fantasy squad but is really hard to bank on in his age-32 season as your #1 running back. 

CINNABON

Incredibly good, but might give you diabetes in the process

Chase Brown, Bengals

Who doesn’t love Cinnabon? Everybody does, of course, but has anybody tried eating it for breakfast, lunch and dinner? Of course not because while you may not know what would happen to your stomach, you know damn well that it wouldn’t be good. That is Chase Brown in fantasy football. He is absolutely delicious to use in DFS and betting, but trying to count on him week in and week out becomes quite difficult. A healthy Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will take away some of the targets from Brown this year. Brown has eight games of under 10 fantasy points over the last two seasons. Oddly, all eight of those games have occurred in the first half of the season (4 in 2024, 4 in 2025). 

WENDY’S

Used to be chic but still high quality and reliable

Javonte Williams, Cowboys 

You know that I still have love for Javonte, but I just couldn’t trust him going into last season. He put together a tremendous season, staying healthy all year and posting the 12^th-most fantasy points among RBs. Javonte was 8^th in yards after contact, 4^th in yards after contact per rush attempt, 9^th in missed tackles forced, 10^th in runs of 15+ yards, 2^nd in broken tackles and 5^th in broken tackles per rush attempt last season. The Cowboys didn’t add anybody to the backfield this offseason and gave Williams a new three-year, $24 million contract. My heart wants to go all-in on Javonte here, but I cannot ignore the track record of disappointment. If you have an alpha RB already in place, Javonte makes for a very nice second back to plug in every week. 

D’Andre Swift, Bears

Last year, we identified Swift as one of the best values in fantasy drafts when he was being taken as RB27 in July. We started calling him “Julius Pepperwood” as a way of disguising him and not driving up his draft stock. The plan worked, as Swift finished the draft season as #24 in ADP and then went on to post an RB15 season despite missing a game against the worst run defenses in the league in the Bengals. That was the Kyle Monangai breakout game, where he posted 22.8 fantasy points. If Swift had been healthy for that game, he would have finished as RB9 in fantasy football. The Bears added to their offensive line this offseason and didn’t add anybody else to the backfield, which means that Swift is entering a contract season as Chicago’s (and Ben Johnson’s) clear leading back again. 

TACO BELL

Going to taste great on draft day, but might leave your butthole bloody

Breece Hall, Jets 

The Jets spent all of 2025 limiting Hall’s usage and touches in what appeared to be a Kenneth Walker-like attack on his contract value. Then they surprisingly put the Franchise Tag on him and eventually gave him a three-year, $45.75 million contract with $29 million guaranteed. 

Hall is as explosive a running back as there is in the league, as evidenced by his 17 runs of 15+ yards and 5^th-highest breakaway run rate last year. The real upside here is in the receiving game, where Hall plunged from 76 receptions in 2023 to 57 receptions in 2024 and just 36 receptions in 2025. Geno Smith is the new QB of the Jets, and he brings with him a career 17.8% target share to RBs, 9^th most among active starting QBs. If we get those receptions back, Hall could easily climb into the top 10 of fantasy RBs in 2026. 

Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars

If you aren’t targeting a Liam Coen running back this season, either you haven’t been a member of Fantasy Guru before or are purposely fading my work, and I’ve taught you nothing. Last year in this exact space, I told you to target these Jaguars RBs and identified Travis Etienne as the guy with Tuten as the handcuff. That was a risky proposition then because Tank Bigsby was making a play for the top job but thankfully lost out to Etienne and was then traded after Week 1. Now that Etienne is gone, this is a race between Tuten and free agent signee Chris Rodriguez. 

The most likely outcome is that Rodriguez will be the short-yardage guy while Tuten is the “starter” and pass-catching back. Ideally, I’d like to scoop up both of the Jaguars backs at their current (early June) value and have it sorted out for us during the season. 

Quinshon Judkins, Browns 

Judkins is a real tough evaluation, just like the Taco Bell menu. He was an extremely productive college running back and one of the better prospects of the last five years. But after being drafted last year, he was accused of domestic abuse, which kept him out of all training camp. Once the charges were officially dropped, Judkins was cleared to return and joined the Browns in Week 2. After 13 up-and-down games, he suffered a dislocated ankle and broken fibula against the Bills in Week 16. He made a very quick recovery this offseason and is already participating in the Browns’ minicamp. Cleveland has made significant upgrades to their offensive line this offseason while also losing Jerome Ford to free agency, clearing the way for Judkins to be the Browns’ early-down and goal-line back this season. 

JACK IN THE BOX

Decent burgers, underrated tacos, but has a clown running the show and implies a prison cell

Josh Jacobs, Packers 

As of this writing, there is just no way to know if Josh Jacobs will play all, some or at all this season after being accused of five felonies, including domestic battery. If he gets out of these charges, Jacobs has a pretty clear path to a full-on bellcow role within the Packers’ offense. He is one of the safest bets for a 10+ TD season if he were to play all 17 games in 2026. But that unknown element has created a game of “fantasy chicken” in drafts where the first one to click on Jacobs’ name in the fourth round gets to sweat out the next six months. 

FIVE GUYS

Best burgers around, but might need financing to afford them

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers 

On the surface, there is little difference between Bucky Irving and backs like Chase Brown, Kyren Williams or Breece Hall. But unlike those other backs, Bucky has been two completely different players in each of his first two years in the NFL. Bucky averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 14.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie in 2024, then just 3.4 yards per carry and 13.6 fantasy points per game in 2025. Much like the burger chain Five Guys, Irving could be the best-tasting, meatiest burger on the market this year. But also like Five Guys, you will have to pay up to find out. 

Cam Skattebo, Giants 

I had serious doubts whether Skattebo’s all power no speed combo would work at the NFL level. To my surprise, he was incredibly productive for the lowly Giants, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, 5.1 yards per touch and 16.0 fantasy points per game while scoring a TD in all but two of his starts in 2025. While he is expected to be ready to go for Week 1, it’s doubtful that Skattebo gets much practice time in ahead of the 2026 season, and thus, we will not know if the ankle dislocation and ligament tear will cost him any of that signature power moving forward. He is going much earlier than he should be, given those circumstances. 

TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots 

We all know the deal with the Patriots’ backfield. We want to draft Henderson because of the youth and explosiveness, but Mike Vrabel and staff really prefer the veteran Rhamondre Stevenson in most situations. If we can get Henderson to officially overtake Stevenson, then it is wheels up for the second-year back out of Ohio State. But if not, it will take an injury to Stevenson for TreVeyon to pay off his current (as of early June) price of round four in ADP.

Remember that over the first eight weeks of 2025, Henderson had a full-season pace of 112-485-2 rushing and 38-32-210-0 receiving, which would result in just the 44^th-most points among running backs. Over his final nine games, however, Henderson had a full-season pace of 239-1,290-12 rushing and 45-35-230-2 receiving, which would amount to 271.0 fantasy points or an RB9 season. These are the kind of draft picks that, even if they work out, really weren’t worth the risk that we took to arrive at the ceiling. 

BURGER KING

Fine if there is practically nothing else around

David Montgomery, Texans

Monty is 29 years old now but is still a productive runner who catches the ball well out of the backfield, too. The Texans made the trade for him early and then didn’t add any other running back depth behind him and Woody Marks. Over the last two seasons, Montgomery has the 17^th-most rushing yards, 6^th in rushing TDs and 17^th in fantasy points among RBs. He’ll be the Texans’ starter and short-yardage RB, giving him a real clear path to double-digit touchdowns in 2026. 

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots 

Stevenson is in his crossroads season (age 28), where he either has one last good year left or we start to see a deterioration of his skills. The hope for many is that he starts to break down and TreVeyon Henderson becomes the beneficiary of it, but that takes some mental gymnastics to actually believe that. The real issue is his fumbling, which, if/when it rears its ugly head again, could be the nail in his fantasy coffin. Until that happens, however, Stevenson is in line to be the early-down back for the Patriots again and projects for another 7+ total TD season. 

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers 

Chuba started out 2025 hot, posting 17.9 and 18.7 fantasy points in the first two games of the season. He then took a backseat to Rico Dowdle, who went on a tremendous eight-week run before his body broke down. But when Dowdle ran out of gas, it was Hubbard there to scoop up the yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. Rico is gone now, and the team is hoping that Jonathon Brooks can return from suffering a second ACL tear in December of 2024. If Brooks isn’t up to the challenge, and his body would suggest that is a long shot, Chuba Hubbard will be the lone wolf in the Panthers’ backfield this season. 

Tony Pollard, Titans 

I am as surprised as anybody that Pollard is still a part of the Tennessee Titans and even further stunned that he will begin the season as their starting RB again. Pollard is 29 years old but is coming off four straight 1,000+ rushing yard and 5+ TD seasons. He’s been surprisingly durable and productive and has held off passing down RB Tyjae Spears each of the past two years. Rookie Nicholas Singleton out of Penn State is very talented, but he will have to explode off the page to take touches away from the veteran Pollard in 2026. 

Aaron Jones, Vikings 

Jones was quite good back in 2024, racking up 1500+ total yards and seven total TDs while finishing as RB14. But he bottomed out last year, missing five games and rushing for 75+ yards just three times. It really looked as though the Vikings would let him walk this offseason, but then they re-signed him to a one-year, $5 million deal. He will be the leader of the RB committee in Minnesota this year, at least until his 31-year-old body breaks down for good. 

QUIZNOS

Hard to find, but when you do, it’s usually fantastic

Jaylen Warren, Steelers 

Now that we know that Aaron Rodgers will return to Pittsburgh, we need to target the pass-catching running backs here, which appears to be Warren this season. Warren only caught 40 balls last year, but Kenneth Gainwell’s vacated 85 targets and 73 receptions provides immense opportunities for him this season. Meanwhile, Rico Dowdle’s receiving numbers under Mike McCarthy in Dallas are nearly identical to what Warren generated in Pittsburgh last season. For this reason, Warren is the RB we want to own in the Steelers’ backfield this year. 

Jadarian Price, Seahawks 

I do not trust running backs that have suffered torn Achilles in the past, and Price will not be any different. But with Zach Charbonnet likely out and possibly on the PUP list to start the season, this backfield will likely belong to the first-round pick out of Notre Dame. If you do wind up drafting Price this year, please do not start counting your chickens early in the season because you will almost certainly be left holding the back in the second half of the season. 

SUBWAY

Once endorsed by a child molester, they are basically the choose-your-own-adventure of food

RJ Harvey, Broncos

In his seven starts last season, Harvey set a pace of 213-791-12 rushing and 70-53-439-2 receiving, which amounts to 260 fantasy points or RB10 in fantasy football. Harvey is a dynamic runner with a three-down skillset, but that is just unfortunately wasted in this Broncos backfield. Head coach Sean Payton’s primary objective on offense these days is to disguise and try to trick the opposition. He uses such complicated personnel groupings and playcalling that I have concluded that it’s impossible to have a true fantasy star in this offense other than the QB. He’s the best of this backfield, but at the end of the day, it just isn’t going to matter. 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders 

I believe that rookie Kaytron Allen has a real good shot at taking over this backfield at some point this season, but good ole “Bill Croskey” will get the first crack at the RB1 job this season. Having a healthy Jayden Daniels running the run-pass-options (RPOs) will help JCM gain a step on the defense. In games with Daniels under center last season, Croskey-Merritt averaged 5.2 yards per carry. When taking handoffs from other Washington QBs, he averaged just 4.0 rushing yards per carry. 

DAIRY QUEEN

Playing with fire if you are eating a meal here, but the desserts are pure fire

Chris Rodriguez, Jaguars 

We prefer the Bhayshul Tuten end of this Jacksonville platoon but also cannot ignore the connection that Rodriguez has to Liam Coen from their days at Kentucky. There are still quite a few opportunities for C-Rod in this offense. If you are in a standard (non-PPR) scoring format, Rodriguez very well could out-touchdown Tuten as the short-yardage back. If Tuten’s fumbling problem returns at any point, that could result in Rodriguez overtaking him for the lead back role. Then, of course, if Tuten were to get injured, Rodriguez would be the lead in a split backfield with LaQuint Allen as the passing down RB. 

Kyle Monangai, Bears 

I was wrong in believing all offseason that Chicago head coach Ben Johnson would see that Monangai was a well below average talent and improve upon him in either free agency or the draft. That did not happen, and thus, Monangai is a heartbeat away from being the Bears’ primary ballcarrier in 2026. He will have a permanent role within the Bears offense, though we need to be careful in thinking that will result in anything more than a top 36 fantasy RB return. 

Kenneth Gainwell, Buccaneers 

Gainwell was sensational in Pittsburgh last year in racking up 221.3 fantasy points, which was good for RB16 in fantasy last year. He parlayed that performance into a two-year, $14 million contract to take on the “Rachaad White” role for the Bucs this season. Before you laugh that off, please understand that White has finished as RB32, RB22 and RB4 in fantasy each of the last three seasons. Gainwell is a much better player and thus is in prime position to be a sleeper this season. Also, given Bucky Irving’s sketchy injury history, Gainwell is one of the better leverage RBs of 2026.