Ray Flowers is back, yet again, for the LABR draft, one of the highlights of the preseason. Follow Ray’s journey in the 15-team mixed league with his live, in-draft diary of how the whole thing played out.
LEAGUE RULES
This is a 15-team, mixed, roto league.
LABR uses a Ranked, Rotisserie Based Scoring System. The below tables show the standard rotisserie scoring categories for hitting and pitching.
Hitting Categories – BA, HR, RBI, Runs, SB
Pitching Categories – W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV
ROSTER: 2-C, 1-1B, 1-3B, 1-CI, 1-2B, 1-SS, 1-MI, 5-OF, 1-UT, 9-P, 6 reserves
Rosters are set each week on Monday.
A player may be assigned to any position at which he appeared in 20 or more major league games in the preceding season. If a player did not appear in 20 or more games at a single position, he may be drafted only at the position at which he appeared most frequently.
FREE AGENT ACQUISITION BUDGET
This league will indeed be using FAAB. Each team will have $100 to spend over the course of the year. You must have $1 to bid on a player (no zero bids).
PARTICIPANTS
1. Zach Steinhorn, Creative Sports
2. Fred Zinkie, Yahoo
3. Tim McLeod, Prospect 361
4. *Andrea Lamont, RotoLady
5. Ryan Bloomfield, Baseball HQ
6. Stephania Bell/Kyle Soppe, ESPN
7. Mark Bloom, Dr. Roto
8. Scott Pianowski, Yahoo
9. Mike Podhorzer, FanGraphs
10. **Jeff Erickson, Rotowire
11. Alan Harrison, @TheFantasyFix
12. Ray Flowers, Fantasy Guru/SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
13. Rudy Gamble, Razzball
14. Steve Gardner, USA TODAY Sports*
15. Joe Sheehan, Sports Illustrated
*Special thanks to Steve Gardner who runs the whole show and graciously invites me to participate each year.
MY ROSTER
*Round taken in parenthesis.
Catcher: Mitch Garver (14), Alejandro Kirk (19)
First Base: Freddie Freeman (2)
Second Base: Jose Altuve (5)
Third Base: Alex Bregman (6)
Shortstop: Trevor Story (3)
Middle Infielder: Brendan Rodgers (11)
Corner Infielder: Rhys Hoskins (9)
Outfield: Randy Arozarena (4), Jessie Winker (8),Trent Grisham (10), Charlie Blackmon (16), Garrett Hampson (17)
Utility: Eugenio Suarez (15)
Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (1), Lance Lynn (7), Tyler Mahle (12), Marcus Stroman (13), Chris Paddack (17), Zack Greinke (20), Gregory Soto (21), Pierce Johnson (23), Peter Fairbanks (26)
BENCH: Vidal Brujan (22), Cavan Biggio (24), Jarren Duran (25), Carlos Estevez (27), Hector Neris (28), Mike Minor (29)
DRAFT WRITE UP
*This writeup occurred in real-time, while the draft was taking place (only the first round selection has any pre or post draft analysis).
ROUND 1: Shohei Ohtani is one player, but I don’t think he will fall to me (you can use him either as a hitter or pitcher for the week). If he does, I might consider it. I’m thinking Mookie Betts as a target here. If Mike Trout is there, I’m likely going to pass. Betts and Freddie Freeman/Rafael Devers sound like a killer start to me, and ADP says it is possible. Of course, you never know how things are going to play out. Shoot. Betts went well ahead of his ADP. No pitchers at the top of the first round is shocking to me, especially given how most of the competitors have drafted in the past. A quick digression.
Here is the NFBC ADP for 99 drafts from February 1st up until the day of the draft. This is how the first 11 picks have played out. Players in bold went in the first 11 selections of this draft.
Trea Turner
Fernando Tatis
Jose Ramirez
Juan Soto
Bo Bichette
Vlad Guerrero
Gerrit Cole
Shohei Ohtani
Ronald Acuna
Bryce Harper
Corbin Burnes
The ADP shows Burnes and Cole both amongst the top-11 picks… and neither was drafted. If we include Ohtani as a pitcher, that is three potential pitchers, according to ADP, inside the top-11. In the LABR draft… zero were taken. I don’t think I’ve seen that in any draft at this point of 2022 – no pitchers in the first 11 picks, and it was absolutely not how I anticipated this draft going, not in the least So, do I do the normal Ray thing and pound hitting or…
What the hell. I’m going Gerrit Cole. Why?
I said I wanted one pitcher the first five rounds as an ideal setup. Obviously the is not my preferred move, but it isn’t how it played out. This certainly is not in my recommended playbook either, but I really didn’t want to go the Mike Trout route cause of health concerns, the old health injury scenario is about the easiest way to have a first round pick bomb, and I feel pretty confident that Devers/Freeman will be there in the second round. I would take one CI here and hope the other falls to me, but with the slow playing of pitching in the first round I’m a bit nervous that could continue a bit into the second round which might leave me looking at a pitcher in the second round which would basically be the same thing as taking a pitcher in the first round.
So, I did something I don’t recommend because of the way the first round played out. As I always say, you have to play your draft as nothing occurs in a vacuum. I know that pitching is going to go heavy after the Cole cherry is popped with this crew in this draft, and I will soak up offense moving forward aggressively. Is this a rogue move for Ray Flowers? Yes. Is it my ideal build? No. Will it work out? Let’s see as I build a team in the way that most of you like to build your teams.
*For more on this decision, here is a podcast with extra details and a fuller explanation.
ROUND 2: It is Freddie Freeman or Rafael Devers or Shohei Ohtani here. I’m really tempted to go Ohtani and, truthfully, I would have if I hadn’t gone with Cole in the first round. Freeman is as stable an offensive force as there is in the game. There is some elevated concern that he could sign with a team other than the Braves, but wherever he is he should hit (rumors even suggest the Yankees). There is a chance I get shut out a bit in steals with my first two picks offering me may 6-8 thefts, so that might be an area in round three that I target.
ROUND 3: Trevor Story is looking like a nice option here to get some speed. Will losing Coors hurt? Sure. We don’t know where he will play either which is another negative. With Xander Bogaerts just being taken, we’ve got one pick until I will find out. If not Story, Randy Arozarena might be a decent fallback coming off that 20/20 effort last season. Story is the choice. No matter where he plays he’s a 20/20 threat. I also have Freeman to help offset some batting average loss with Story, so I don’t feel too stretched grabbing my shortstop here.
ROUND 4: I’m hoping that Alex Bregman or Anthony Rendon fall to Round 5. I’m thinking trying to get some more speed here isn’t a bad idea since I went rouge and grabbed that pitcher early. I could go Paul Goldschmidt here for a killer CI bat who has the potential to steal 10 bases while being a rock of stability with the bat who I favor over George Springer for the health grade which is so much higher with Paul than George. One pick until I’m up. Randy Arozarena was the choice. Why? I don’t think he improves greatly over last season, and I don’t think his batting average will keep up with Goldy. Still, as I noted, and with the way folks are drafting, I thought grabbing a second option who could swipe 20 bases was an ideal way to go at this point given that I passed on steals completely in the first round. This is what I think you have to do if you go starting pitcher early. By the way, I could have passed on Cole and grabbed Sandy Alcantara with this pick. What would that have looked like?
I have: Cole/Freeman/Story/Arozarena
I could have had: Trout/Freeman/Story/Alcantara
Honestly, I still think I like the “could have more” or at least as much. This is why I just don’t like going starting pitcher so early. Buyer’s remorse already? A little bit.
ROUND 5: Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon or Jose Altuve. I’m thinking Altuve if he falls, since it would be a bit of a stretch to see both third sackers drafted before I’m up in Round 6. So, I’m thinking I might play the odds, and push it again at third. I could try Jazz Chisholm for the speed, but I’ve always been a fan of Jose Altuve and that impressive game with the bat with is a rock of stability, even if he doesn’t run anymore. Jazz went the pick after Altuve by the way.
ROUND 6: So, thinking third sacker here, a round later than I was planning fifteen minutes ago. If Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman are there, I’m thinking I’m going to push through the concern with rostering two Astros and just take Bregman who I have noted a couple of times above. He had surgery, should be fully healthy, and if he’s 85 percent of the player he was in his last healthy season of 2019 (.296-41-112-122-5), this is gonna end up being a fine selection.
ROUND 7: Since I took Cole, I was able wait a bit on pitching. I’m not sure why everyone is grabbing closers so aggressively, I mean I understand it but just don’t agree with it, so that has left a few starting arms that have fallen a bit (Darvish, Lynn at the top of the list). I could grab that second arm here, certainly an option. The outfield is drawing some interest from me as well. Jesse Winker is a potential breakout player if he can stay healthy, though he doesn’t bring any speed. Can Christian Yelich rebound? There will likely be an outfielder fall to the next round, right? If not, I really like Rhys Hoskins for a comeback too. I’m thinking getting another arm with some big time strikeout potential and a high floor to support my Cole pick. Darvish went the pick before me, so come on down Lance Lynn coming off the impressive season while pitching for one of the best teams in the AL. His stability rating is huge too.
ROUND 8: Jesse Winker is my target here. No speed, but boy is he a hell of a hitter and that .300 average will help lift Story/Arozarena. Got him. Over the last two seasons, Winker has played 164 games going .292-36-94-104. He’s also posted a .392 OBP. Bryce Harper just won the NL MVP going .309-35-84-101 with a .429 OBP.
ROUND 9: This pick is a bit up in the air dependent on how the round transpires before I’m up. Rhys Hoskins is a fourth pick in a row that seems boring, but I’m piling up counting category production. Per 162 games for his career: .241-37-103-77-4 with a .862 OPS. He hit 27 bombs with 71 RBI last season in just 107 games and should be fully healthy.
ROUND 10: This was more of a speed-need type pick since, again, the early Cole pick put me a bit behind the curve. I would love to have gone Rogers/Torres up the middle, but I will wait and hope either drops to me in the 11th. Given all that, the choice was Trent Grisham who should have a shot at going 15/20. For more, check out his Player Profile.
ROUND 11: This is going to be a middle infield pick or a starting pitcher (ideally I would prefer three pitchers by this point, but with Cole I’m willing to press my luck a bit). There is no certainty at relief with who is left, and because I missed out on that first round bat with the Cole pick, I felt the need to back off pitchers a bit through 10 rounds which might make that the call here (Mahle, Stroman… oh, there went Kershaw so not him). There went Gleyber. So, Brendan Rogers and a pitcher in Round 12? Rodgers qualifies at second and shortstop, and plays half his games at Coors, which pretty much locks him in as an ideal middle infield option in this format.
ROUND 12: Yep, thinking starting pitcher here (and maybe next round too). Pablo Lopez and Tyler Mahle are the two thoughts. Mahle has a better outlook in terms of innings, while Lopez likely has a slight skills advantage. I’m thinking Mahle, who there have been rumors about potentially being on the move. There went Lopez a pick before me. Problem solved with Mahle who was a finalist for my Breakout Pitcher of the Year in 2021. He also scored well in Punchouts & Workload.
ROUND 13: Conforto/Gallo were options, but they both just went. Could go Eddie Rosario or if outfield ends up being the goal here. I’m thinking I might grab a catcher here to help solidify my offensive base. I might go Doval/McGee in two consecutive rounds and try to lock down the Giants 9th inning. Crap. Just thwarted with the Doval pick. Too early to take McGee anyway, so I would have been playing the waiting on the backup game that anyone who plays football knows too well when doing the handcuff thing in the backfield. Ultimately, I went with Team Boring Option on the hill in Marcus Stroman. He’s not likely to get the same run support he’s used to as a Cub, but his ratios will be solid and he’s a good bet to throw 175-innings. All those grounders should help keep the ball out of the seats in Wrigley too.
ROUND 14: Since I passed on a catcher last round, I might take one here. Keibert Ruiz is a youngster who can really hit and Yan Gomes is no longer a National. Crap, he just went. Shoot. So did Gary Sanchez as a run is going at catcher (not that I wanted him). Let’s hope Mitch Garver is still there. Yes. He made it to me. Really wanted Ruiz, but Garver has more power, less average, upside. His power might let me target someone with speed later who has less than ideal pop. At least that’s the hope (N. Madrigal being a target).
ROUND 15: I might go with Last Year’s Bum option – Eugenio Suarez. He stunk last year and still went 30-70-70. He qualifies at shortstop and third base as well, adding another feather in his addition cap. Yep, I indeed did.
ROUND 16: Shoot. Nick Madrigal just went, well ahead of his ADP. Ian Happ is a different player but a nice target here… shoot. Just went. Charlie Blackmon is the selection. Old, boring, and he no longer runs. Still, the batted ball data suggests, rather strongly, that he could improve on his overall effort from last season. Nothing major mind you, but as a fourth outfielder in a 15-teamer, he’s perfectly acceptable.
ROUND 17: Chris Paddack is on my mind, as is Zack Greinke. One guy is young, one is old, doesn’t have a team and has very little interest in the community. I’m also thinking another Rockie, Garret Hampson, who has been a disappointment but is still a potential steals threat. The pick was Paddack who I do like a lot at this point of the draft.
ROUND 18: If Trevor Story doesn’t return to Colorado, and Brendan Rodgers plays shortstop, who is at second base for the Rockies? There is also the likelihood that the NL will have the DH this season which opens up another spot in the daily lineup for those NL teams. Garrett Hampson is the choice. He hit 11 homers and stole 17 bases last season… and he wasn’t very good. It wouldn’t be wild to think he could go 10/20 while qualifying at second and in the outfield in 2022.
ROUND 19: At this point, is it time to randomly grab a power arm and hope he ends up in the 9th inning? Could certainly make that argument here. I’m thinking of going aggressive here and taking Julio Rodriguez. It would be aggressive for me, though not according to ADP which has him coming off right about this point of drafts. He would be a depth addition for me in the outfield, and I have flexibility to wait on his big league arrive. Crap. Just went five picks before me. Shoot. So much for an idea that I really liked. If I still go young, I could grab Alejandro Kirk who can really, really hit. However, Danny Jansen is lurking and he will certainly see a lot of playing time. Kirk is certainly in ideal second catching option in a 15-teamer even with the presence of Jansen. I’m liking going back to SPs next, which means I would have to wait again on RP with this catcher selection.
ROUND 20: Stephen Strasburg and Zack Greinke are my thought here. Both have reasons to lean toward them, while both also have reasons to run for the hills. Strasburg just went, so I’m going with Old Reliable. Greinke doesn’t have a team, and his K-rate has really fallen off, but he threw 171 innings and had a 1.17 WHIP, and really doesn’t profile much differently than Kyle Hendricks who was taken in Round 16. Let’s hope he doesn’t retire.
ROUND 21: OK, let’s throw some RP darts. I’m hoping to grab Trivino or Soto with this pick. Both appear to be in the lead for their team’s 9th inning role. It would be kind of ideal to get both with my next two picks. Watch both get taken before I even make a pick. I could also go with an SP as I continue to try and just add solid arms after my top-2. We’re down to a couple of picks. Crap. There went Lou Trivino. Will Gregory Soto go in the next two picks? One pick. Soto it mine. He is the current “closer” for the Tigers.
ROUND 22: Vidal Brujan. He could steal 30 bases. He could spend half the year in the minors. He is a selection at this point that could pay off or be off my team a month in to the season. I was looking at multiple relief arms with this selection, but their ADP strongly suggests they will be available for me in the 23rd round (ditto those SPs I was looking at). I’ve got Hampson/Brujan and really, if one hits I’m good. If both do, it is a stretch I know, then Yahtzee.
ROUND 23: Brandon Nimmo is the likely leadoff man for a Mets team that could score… A LOT of runs in 2022. He is an elite OBP guy, and if he plays 140 games he scores a ton of runs. But… this is a batting average league. Mike Yaz for power is another option if I want more power. Oh well, Yaz just went. I’m going back to the bullpen and the choice is Pierce Johnson. He could be the closer in San Diego, and he has a huge strikeout arm. He could also set up, especially if the Padres add bullpen arms when free agency opens up (might they try to sign Kenley Jansen?). We’re at the risk stage with bullpen arms. We actually were about 10 rounds ago.
ROUND 24: Tanner Rainey is a thought here. I just don’t trust Kyle Finnegan (and neither should you). I’m intrigued by Cavan Biggio. There just aren’t that many 15/15 threats at this point of the draft, and the still 26 year old went 24/20 his first two seasons over 159 games before bombing last season. He’s third base eligible and he played 16 games in the outfield last season. He can also play second base, and that might even be the position he plays to start the year. He’s a batting average risk indeed, but if he’s healthy and in that lineup daily… we know it’s a stupendous lineup… he could return solid value at this cost. Biggio was the pick as Rainey went the pick before me making it easy.
ROUND 25: I’m a fan of Jarren Duran, and as I currently see it, I think he has a shot to break camp with the Red Sox, potentially even starting in the outfield. He is another one of those 10-15 homer, 15-20 steal types on my squad if things break right.
ROUND 26: I’m still thinking the starting pitchers I like could fall another round, and I certainly need to take another bullpen shot. Given that fact, I’m going to lean toward the pen with Pete Fairbanks being the target. He has a huge arm, is frequently hurt, and not at all certain to full the 9th inning gig. Could he find his way to 15 saves with the Rays? I do think that is possible, and that would make this pick worth it.
ROUND 27: We’re in build the pitching staff part of the draft, especially with the multi-position players that I was able to roster in multiple rounds. Shoot. Madison Bumgarner just went. He was one of my options here. Drafting a Rockies’ closer is never a good idea, is it? Is Carlos Estevez even the closer at this point? I think he is, and given my weakness there, should I take a chance on that 97-mph heat and hope he garners 15-20 saves this season as I continue my less than ideal bullpen build? Yep.
ROUND 28: Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin and Hector Neris. Given my RP need, I will continue to take shots knowing that one injury to Mr. Pressly in Houston could lead to Neris closing. Give me Hector Neris, who always hits a speed bump or two, but in the end usually posts dominant K numbers with solid ratios. I probably should have gone SP here for a more well-rounded club, but with so many free agents still floating around, and injuries certain to happen, there will obviously be options I can turn to in the starting rotation the first time we run waivers in this league. I can drop a reliever at that point if they aren’t likely to see 9th inning work, and make that pivot. A middling SP costs little, while an ascending RP would cost a lot.
ROUND 29: Zach Eflin is my boy. He’s a perfect final round selection since his rotation slot is only about the health of his knee where G. Rodriguez could spend half the season in the minors this season. Too bad Elfin just went in the 28th round. Crap. Since I need innings, I will go with Brady Singer who has had to very stable seasons in Kansas City and might be ready to take a step this season to the level of being usable for most his starts. How amazing is it that I was sniped in the last round on the last pick that could do so? Ugh. Had to go Mike Minor for the innings which I might need early in the year. If healthy he’s fine, but what a boring pick.
FINAL THOUGHTS
According to one prediction service, I’m gonna finish second.
According to another, it looks like first.
Do I like the team?
I’m still uncertain how I feel about the Cole pick. Taken in total, my first eight picks are an ideal mix and the solid foundation of my team. Two potential weaknesses. (1) The bullpen. There is so much uncertain with that spot anyway, that when you add in the uncertainty as to when the season begins or where all the free agents will sign, I just didn’t want to pay a higher price than I deemed valid. (2) While I have a good about of 10/15 if not 15/15 types, guys like Hampson/Biggio/Duran/Brujan all have the potential to be in my lineup every day, or off my roster a month into the year. That’s a lot of risk/reward which I embarrassed here, something I felt justified in doing given the stability I built in the first third of the draft.
Here is a link to the draftboard.
Here are the targets needed to have success in this setup.