Man, we actually could have had an insane week last week. I gave the outright winner for the second week in a row and hopefully we can keep that one going. First thing first I will breakdown the cash core from last week and then we will be hoping right into the course breakdown so let’s get to it.
Cash Game Core
Seamus Power – We all know how this one played out this week with him booking the win this week. I forgot to enter my lineup last week, so I do not have the ownership and score for these guys, but he smashed his price tag and did way more then enough to help you cash.
Adam Long – Long score a -8 on the week and really could have finished even higher if it wasn’t for his awful Saturday round. 44th in this field probably was not enough but he scored decently.
Chad Ramey – Ramey was super cheap this week and I believe he profiled well for this course. His issue was his round on Thursday where he made 4 birdies but also made 4 bogeys to top that one off. Finished two off of the cut and if he had made it would have smashed his price tag.
This week we are traveling to Riviera Maya, Mexico to play the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. This is a resort course but is more covered by trees than other resort courses making the wind not an issue here this week except for a few holes. Mayakoba is an easy course where we will see the finish go for -20 or better. Mayakoba plays as a 6,982-yard par 71 so as you can see it is not the longest course. The thing is that guys won’t need distance to do well here but you will need to be a bit more accurate to hit the fairways and avoid the penalty areas. This course has four par 3’s, eleven par 4’s and three par 5’s. Course history is not the end all be all at this course and it shows with Hovland. The first two times playing this course Hovland missed the cut and then went on to win twice in a row. Course history helps but do not shy away from a guy who missed the cut last year or the year before. Let’s get to the stats and then the player breakdown and hope we can pick this winner here once again.
Stats I am looking at:
- Driving Accuracy
- SG: APP
- Opps gained
- Par 4: 450-500
- SG: T2G
- Prox 150+
Collin Morikawa (Cash/Gpp)
I know it is crazy having him as my top guy this week but hear me out. Morikawa hits the ball very straight and has some of the best irons in the entire field this week. Biggest issue that will come about this week will be his awful putter but if he can find it at all he can win this tournament. Comes in 3rd in my model this week and sits 1st in good drives and 2nd in App.
Tony Finau (Cash/Gpp)
I am probably going to catch some crap with this one here but Finau ranks 1st in my model and sits 3rd in good drives, 3rd in App, 1st in Pr: 450-500 and 1st in T2G. He is going to give himself plenty of opportunities and will be on him to take advantage of it.
Aaron Wise (Gpp)
Wise is priced up big time this week and I think it is based off his course history here. 7th in opps gained in this field and has all the upside in the world at what should be sub 10% is someone I will be taking a stab at in Gpp.
Taylor Montgomery (Cash/Gpp)
I have loved him every week leading up to this one and he has not burned me yet. As long as he keeps his drives in the fairway, he will once again finish top 20 in this field.
Tom Hoge (Gpp)
Stats are going to line up for him but I do not trust him for cash at all. His game this week with rely on his OTT and I am not sure I can get there in cash because he does have blowup weeks.
Emiliano Grillo (Gpp)
Another Gpp play with upside here this week. Has played well at this course and except for last week has found his putter to a sense. Risky but could be very nice as well.
Brendon Todd (Cash/Gpp)
Form has kind of been all over the place but he has been losing off the tee and that sucks. He is one of the more accurate golfer off the tee and really good with his putter. Has finished 11th, 8th and 1st last three times here.
Brian Harman (Cash/Gpp)
I wish he was a few hundred dollars cheaper but is 15th in my model this week with his worst stat being P4 from 450-500 yards. 67% driving accuracy and has some good irons. I can see a top 20 in his near future.
Russell Henley (Cash/Gpp)
For any of you who follow along with me all year will know Henley is usually in my article and I love him a lot. I really wish he would fix that putter because he would be priced higher than he is. 6th in my model and is top 10 in good drives, App, opps gained and T2G. If I had to bet, we will be seeing Henley contend this week.
Adam Hadwin (Gpp)
Form has been kinda meh, but he is near $8k and I think for this price we can go here. He is a good putter who usually has good irons, and we have no seen that lately.
Matt Kuchar (Cash/Gpp)
Stats wise he is 60th in my model but that does not tell the whole story here. Kuchar has decent form at this course and has smashed some of the comp courses in the past. When he is on, he can contend for a top 20 spot.
Harris English (Gpp)
Is this the week he is finally back and plays well? Who knows but his old skillset fits this course and has shown it in the past with back-to-back 5th places and playing decent on comp courses.
Hayden Buckkley (Cash/Gpp)
I think I actually like him quite a bit this week even in cash games just due to him setting up for this course and also the upside/safety he provides in this field. Ranks 4th in my model and his worst stat I am looking at is his proximity from 150-175.
Lee Hodges (Gpp)
Good on easier courses and also brings some upside down here. I like Buckley more for safety, but Hodges will be lower owned and has just around the same upside.
Chris Kirk (Gpp)
I know this play might come as a bit of a surprise, but he has played well at the comp courses and also has made the cut here four straight years. Granted none of the finishes are to write home about but at least he will give himself the opportunity.
Joel Dahmen (Cash)
Always a good cash game in my eyes and like I mentioned before his last two tournaments is he was losing strokes on APP, and he was going to get that fixed. That is exactly what he has done, and I will keep playing him.
Kevin Streelman (Gpp)
Great at some comp courses and is sitting 7th in my model for the week. He has his ups and downs, but upside is all there and can finish towards the top any given week.
Adam Svensson (Cash/Gpp)
This spot was between Svensson and Smotherman and I have to go with the guy who I trust a bit more this week. If we could give Svensson a different putter or get some lessons, he would be priced around $7,700 and that shows his talent.
Adria Arnaus (Gpp)
I am really excited to see how he will fare this week on an easy course. He has all the talent in the world its just a matter of how long it takes him to get it all together.
Chez Reavie (Cash/Gpp)
Never really pays off for me but eventually he is going to get it turned around. I really do like him but just seems to screw me more often times than not.
Lucas Glover (Cash/Gpp)
Not going to win this tournament for you but if he can make the cut then he should pay this price tag off. Top 30 in my model and that is more than enough to get me to play him at this price.
Cash game core: $7,733 salary left with this core
- Brendon Todd
- Joel Dahmen
- Collin Morikawa