Ever hear of the idea called ‘timing the stock market?’ You know, the idea that you can tell exactly when the high point of a stock will be, so you wait for that moment, patiently, and the moment it hits that phantom mark you sell all of your stock for a monster profit. The problem with the attempt is that it doesn’t work. You, me, hell Warren Buffett, can’t do it. It just doesn’t work. No one knows when that exact moment is, so it’s a fool’s errand to even attempt it. I bring this up because I fear that far too many of you operate by the same maximum, that you know exactly when the right moment is to deal someone away, or to add someone in a trade. It’s all I can figure given the massive amount of trade questions I’m asked to weigh in on daily basis. In this article I’ll talk about the right way to make a trade, as well as the wrong way to attempt to pull off a trade. I’ll also tough on the idea that maybe, potentially, you are trading too much. I’m afraid many of you might be doing things incorrectly, for a variety of reasons.
PERSONAL USAGE OF TRADES – THE VOLUME
I’m in a different scenario than most of you. There is trading allowed in my leagues, but frankly, trades rarely happen. In the seven leagues that I’m in this season that allowing trading, I’ve done a deal in three of them. That’s it, and I believe the actual deal total is four trades, or 0.57 deals per team across the seven. Part of the reason is that I’m in leagues with folks who do this for a living. As such, it’s hard to find any buy low deals as the people you turn to for fantasy advice (A) are loathe to sell low and (B) believe their slow starters will turn around. That wipes out a huge portion of potential deals. It’s also extremely unlikely that anyone in my leagues would have been able to parlay the smoking hot start of Christian Walker into a deal for a slow starting Anthony Rizzo back in April.
So, I will just start off with that, the fact that trades rarely happen in any of my leagues which makes the frenzy of deals that I’m exposed to from you all so utterly fascinating.
DO YOU TRADE TOO MUCH?
There are some of you out there that literally send me at least one trade offer you receive every week. There are some of you that ask me about a trade on about a every other day basis. There are some of you that will send me three or four offers that you’ve received in a single day. I just don’t get leagues that have managers that are that active as I haven’t been in a league like that in a couple of decades.
Thinking you can time the market, as noted above, is one of the biggest mistake’s folks make every year. So, I would suggest being very cautious with roster moves. (this goes with the waiver-wire as well as I get questions, one after another, each time a minor leaguer is called up or a guy gets five hits in two games). Here’s why caution should be paramount in your decision-making process.
Baseball is a long season, and trying to capture success in short periods of time is difficult.
In order for a player to get “hot” it likely takes 10 or so games for an offensive player for you to notice the upswing (I’m merely using hitters for this discussion, but the maxims also apply to hurlers).
If a .275 hitter hits .375 over 10 games, what do you think he’s gonna hit the next 10 games? Do you really think he’s hitting .375 again? Maybe he slows a bit and hits .300, or perhaps he goes into a funk that leads to him hitting .250 for the next 10 days. Adding those 20 days together, the .375 guy and the .250 guy, you get a .313 hitter (same at-bats in each period). So even though the career .275 has been .038 points better than his career mark the last two weeks, you only got the .250 hitter. You lost. Period.
So, you lose this move. What to do next? I know what you’re going to do. You will then drop/trade the guy you just added, seeking to find the next “hot” player. You keep landing in the valley with players – and in the end your batting slot hits .255. You would have been better off just keeping Mr. .275 and never making a deal at all as, guess what, Mr. .275 ended up hitting .275 on the season.
Let’s talk home runs.
Player A hits six homers over two weeks. Wow, he’s rolling. That launch angle is up three percent, and he’s gonna hit 35 homers this season, you just know it, so you work out the deal to add him to your team. Player A then hits six homers the next six weeks, reverting back to the 25-homer hitter he’s always been. It’s fine to have deal for Player A if you paid for the 25-homer bat, but we know you paid a premium thinking you were getting the 35-homer bat.
That’s the main issue when we talk trades.
You usually, not always but usually, make a deal perceiving a weakness with your team. You don’t search out the guy hitting .220 with six homers to add to your team, you target the guy hitting .320 with 12 homers. The reality is that the .220-6 is underperforming, the .320-12 guy is overperforming, and in the end they end up with the same level of production. However, since you added the “hot” player, the performance your team receives stinks, whereas if you would have kept the “cold” player, who heated up, your team would have been better off in the end.
Timing is everything in dealing players, and as discussed above, it’s very difficult to hit that time bomb correctly. Remember, what’s happened is in the past. It’s what matters from today moving forward. Far too many deals are the reverse of this with people mostly consider what has happened versus what is likely to occur.
Sample size matters.
The overall skills the player possess matters as well.
Patience is an admirable trait, and one that is in short supply in the world today.
If you aren’t factoring in these final two points when you pull the trigger, you’re likely making some poor choices on the trade front, and we all know what happens when you make a bad trade, don’t we? Yep, you make another trade, and down the rabbit hole we go.
So, to sum up, be cautious with trades. The fella in your league who makes 18 trades isn’t likely to be getting ahead anywhere near as much as you think. Conversely, the person who “only” makes four trades doesn’t have to be falling behind either. It’s just not that simple.
The goal is smart trades, not volume.
THE RIGHT WAY TO DEAL
Back in January, which seems like eons ago at this point, I did a podcast entitled Working The Trade Market. Here are some of the hints given in the podcast (it’s 34 minutes of pure magic!).
1 – Create scenario that’s a win-win.
Find a team that has a need that you can fill by trading someone away. It’s not just you that needs to get something in the bartering; the other team needs to get something they can use as well. Don’t try to rip someone off. That’s a non-starter.
2 – Realize, some players love trading, some hate it.
Identify those folks in your league, and find the way that they want to communicate (email, text, phone, in-person).
3 – Understand people’s tendencies.
Is someone a super fan of a certain team? Does someone in your league love minor leaguers? Does someone in your setup stay away from injury prone players.
4 – Understand that everyone views players differently, which means that sometimes there just isn’t a match to be made.
This one is hard for some folks to understand. You think Jose Abreu is a star. Someone else thinks he’s just solid. How are you going to come to a midpoint there? You aren’t.
5 – Be polite. Use people’s names and be personable.
Send a note with the trade offer. If you actually spend 14 seconds to address the note in a personal manner, you’re much more likely to get some traction.
6 – Keep the lines of communication open, so even if this deal doesn’t work, the next one might.
This deal may not work out. That happens. Don’t blow up the relationship though by calling your potential trading partner names. Be civil. Be polite. Live to fight another day.
THE WRONG WAY TO DEAL
1 – Making deals to feel like you’re doing something.
It’s ok to stand pat with your club and work the waiver-wire. Sometimes the best trade you make is the one you don’t actually pull the trigger on.
2- Thinking you have to “win” every deal.
I would give the podcast linked to above a good listen. I really dive into this point in it.
3 – Thinking that context doesn’t matter with the utmost importance being given to getting the best player, regardless of fit.
This situation comes up every single day. ‘Ray, I want to trade Max Scherzer for Christian Yelich, should I do it?’ I don’t know. Should you? Here is the right way to go about finding the answer.
A – Are you strong in pitching?
B – To boost your offense, do you need an infielder or an outfielder?
C – Where are you weak? This point is constantly lost on folks. If you’re starting Kolten Wong in the middle infield spot, but your fifth outfielder is Trey Mancini – do you really need Yelich, an outfielder? Wouldn’t your team be way better off dealing for Francisco Lindor instead? It shouldn’t be just about getting a great player. You have to figure in how that player fits into your squad.
D – Where are you in the standings? Can you cover up for the major loss of strikeouts you will be dealing with? Do you need steals?
All that needs to be factored into a deal.
4 – Getting vapor lock on a player. (You gotta take who you can get).
You might say to yourself that you gotta get Anthony Rizzo cause you love his game, so you contact the owner. Rizzo’s owner responds with a ridiculous offer trying to extra 125 percent of his value from you in trade. That doesn’t make any sense to do, so pivot off Rizzo. Why not see what the Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu or Paul Goldschmidt owners want? The goal for you is to improve your first base spot and get an upper end producer. It doesn’t have to be Rizzo, it just has to be someone who fits the requirements.
Always listen as you never know when a deal to improve your team will come along, but I would caution you to follow the information laid out above before you click the accept button.