The Red Zone

There are so many different data points, metrics, and statistics that we look at when projecting for players. Opportunities (targets and touches) are arguably one of the most important stats if you ask me. Don’t get me wrong, offensive line matters, situations matter, coaching matters, play calling matters, as well as many other factors. However, without opportunities, there is no path to fantasy production. This is why I always start with opportunities as one of my top priorities when projecting for players.

Keep in mind, not all opportunities are created equal. A rush attempt at the 50-yard line is not the same as a rush attempt inside the 5-yard line, which is why one statistic that I like to look at for players is red zone usage. Touchdowns are one of the most unpredictable things in football, without a doubt, and red zone touches don’t always turn into scores. However, when you combine how often a team is in position to score in the red zone and who is dominating the red zone touches on the offense, you get a good idea of who will be put in positions to score. Now it is time to take a deep dive as to what the red zone is and why usage in this part of the field is valuable.

What is The Red Zone

Before jumping into why red zone touches and opportunities are important, as well as the numbers that fantasy owners should be monitoring, let’s define what the red zone is. Granted 99.9 percent of you already know this, but this is for the 0.1 percent that might not. The red zone is the area between the 20-yard line and the goal line. In other words, in the red zone, the offense is 20 yards away from scoring a touchdown.

Red zone opportunities and touches by the numbers

Red zone touches

Touches inside the 20-yard line display the number of opportunities a player receives in the red zone. These can be rushing attempts or receptions. Opportunities such as targets should also be accounted for, as this gives us perspective as to how many chances a player has had in this part of the field. Anytime a player receives an opportunity in this part of the field, it’s a potential chance to score.

Percentage of team’s red zone touches

As important as touches inside the 20-yard line are, understanding a player’s true role in this portion of the field is just as important. Player A could have 30 red zone touches, but those 30 touches could account for 80 percent of the team’s touches in this part of the field. Whereas, player B could have 35 red zone touches, but those touches account for just 50 percent of his team’s red zone touches. Player B has five more touches than Player A in this scenario, but Player A’s number will be called upon more often than Player B when their team’s gets down inside the 20-yard line. In other words, Player A is leaned on much more by his team in the red zone than Player B, but one team is in position to score more than the other.

The same can be said about targets. Targets don’t always end up in receptions, but targets are opportunities for these players. One player could have five receptions on five targets, while another player could have five receptions on eight targets. If we focus on just receptions (touches), we aren’t seeing the entire picture, as we are not taking opportunities into account here. It’s always better to have all of the information at hand to come to the best and most accurate conclusion.

Red zone scoring attempts per game

Some players will have more scoring opportunities than others by default because of the teams they play for. Teams such as the Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Packers, and Chiefs were among the top offenses in scoring attempts per game in the 2023 regular season. Therefore, it should come to no surprise that Christian McCaffrey led the league in rush attempts inside the 20-yard line, Tony Pollard was second in red zone rush attempts, David Montgomery was top five in red zone rush attempts, and both Gus Edwards and Isiah Pacheco were top 12 in red zone rush attempts. Furthermore, CeeDee Lamb led the NFL in red zone targets, Jake Ferguson led all tight ends in red zone targets and was tied for top five in the NFL in that department, Amon-Ra St. Brown was also tied top five, the Chiefs had two players inside the top 10 in red zone targets, and Romeo Doubs was top 12 in this department. Lastly, the starting quarterbacks for all six of the teams listed above finished inside the top 11 in red zone pass attempts, including three in the top three. Notice the correlation here?

When offenses get inside the 20-yard line and put themselves in positions to score, this creates opportunities for players on these offenses to score. This is why combining all of these numbers is key. Once we know who’s getting the touches and who accounts for a high percentage of the opportunities in these offenses, we can start pinpointing where the scoring could potentially come from.

Inside the 10-yard and 5-yard line

Not all red zone rush attempts are created equal. A run from the 18-yard line is not the same as a run from the 9-yard line. Just like a run from the 8-yard line is not the same as a run from the 2-yard line. I like to break red zone rush attempts from the following three areas, inside the 20-, 10-, and 5-yard line.

The chances of scoring a touchdown from inside the 5-yard line are greater than the chances of scoring from the 10-yard line. The same can be said about the chances of scoring from inside the 10-yard line being greater than an attempt from the 20-yard line. Therefore, not only do we want to dive into how many red zone opportunities a player has, but where these opportunities take place, how often they take place in this area, and the percentage of the team’s opportunities they have in this specific area.

For perspective, Raheem Mostert was sixth in rush attempts inside the 20-yard line last season but was tied for first in carries inside the 5-yard line, scoring 11 of his 15 (tied for most in the NFL) red zone rushing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line. He accounted for just 48.4 percent of his team’s rush attempts from inside the 20-yard line, compared to a healthy 70.4 percent from inside the 5-yard line. It’s a significant difference between his usage inside the 20-yard line versus his usage inside the 5-yard line.

All red zone touches are valuable, but as you can see from some of the numbers above, some touches are clearly more valuable than others.

Efficiency in the red zone

Opportunities are great and all but as I noted above, they will not always lead to scoring. Efficiency in general is important, because at the end of the day, what good are opportunities if you don’t convert them into production? This is why looking at efficiency inside the red zone is another statistical measure I look into. I don’t use this as simply a decision-making tool, but also as a tool where I can measure potential regression, whether it’s positive or negative.

Of players with at least 40 rush attempts inside the 20-yard line last season, two of them scored fewer than five rushing touchdowns. Both of them scored in fewer than 10 percent of their red zone rush attempts. Opportunities for these players was not the issue, it was a combination of lack of efficiency and where these opportunities took place. Neither of those two players had more than nine rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and for both of these players, all but one of their rushing touchdowns came from inside the 5-yard line.

When we look at efficiency, we are uncovering multiple things such as play calling, offensive line, what areas of the field the touches are coming from, and whether a player is executing when put in a great situation. All of these things are important when projecting a player’s touchdown upside given their roles inside the red zone.

2023 Red Zone Fun Facts

Below I will hit on some of the more notable red zone numbers from the 2023 season, so that you can get an idea of which players were most used in this part of the field. This could guide us in the right direction when looking for potential touchdown upside. Please keep in mind that situations have changed for some of these players, such as coaching changes, personnel changes, and even team changes.

Christian McCaffrey led all players in red zone rush attempts, as well as in red zone targets. In fact, he was also in the top 20 in red zone targets, finishing with a total of 79 red zone opportunities.

Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks in red zone rush attempts with 43, finishing with eight more rush attempts in this part of the field than the next quarterback (Josh Allen had 35). Hurts also led all players in rushing touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line.

Joe Mixon was the only player in the league to account for more than 70 percent of his team’s red zone rush attempts, accounting for 77.8%. The next man up was Derrick Henry who accounted for 67.9 percent of his team’s. Both players are on new teams in 2024.

Raheem Mostert, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all had 15 red zone rushing touchdowns, tying for most in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley accounted for 100 percent of the Giants rush attempts from inside the 5-yard line, attempting just six runs from this part of the field.

CeeDee Lamb led all players in red zone targets with 31, as well as in red zone receptions with 17. Davante Adams (29) and Calvin Ridley (26) were the only other players with 25+ red zone targets. Ridley and Adams were also the only players to account for over 40 percent of their team’s red zone target share. Lamb also led the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line with 17, while Adams finished with a league high 10 receptions from this part of the field.

Jake Ferguson led all tight ends in red zone targets with 23.

Sam LaPorta led all tight ends in red zone receiving touchdowns with eight, also tying Lamb and Courtland Sutton for most in the league.

Dak Prescott led the NFL in red zone pass attempts with 104. Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love were the only other two signal callers with 90+ red zone pass attempts. Prescott also led the NFL with 27 passing touchdowns in this part of the field.

Brock Purdy led the NFL in completion percentage from inside the 20-yard line for players with at least 30 pass attempts. He completed 70.31 percent of his red zone pass attempts.

Closing Thoughts

Things change from one year to the next, as personnel changes, coaching staff changes, and systems changes occur. Therefore, red zone stats from the previous year should not be your end all, be all go-to when making a decision. That said, this information should still give you a nice perspective as to how teams are utilizing their players in the red zone and what players may be put in situations to score touchdowns. You will also get a good glimpse of vacated opportunities for some of these offenses following free agency and what this could mean for the next man up. As I mentioned above, touchdowns are unpredictable, but with this information we at least have an idea on who is put in favorable situations to score touchdowns and how often they are put in these situations.

Throughout the regular season, I’ll be doing a weekly red zone usage report keeping track of all red zone numbers. Make sure to keep an eye out for that following the first week of the season. You can also view the complete sheet with all of the data discussed in the article by scanning the barcode at the end of this article. Good luck to everyone this fantasy football season!