Let’s run it all back to Covid. Two years ago, we had to play the game of – how many games will we play this season and how will that effect the players? Covid isn’t as big a deal at this point, though it is still lurking, but it has been replaced by a potentially scarier duo of players and owners who seem content to watch the season, and potentially the game, slide down the toilet bowl into the sewer.
What is going on and what does it all mean? Here are some quick thoughts on both of those topics.
WHAT IS THE ISSUE?
As always… money.
GIVE US SOME SPECIFICS RAY
1 – The players want to raise the minimum wage to a higher dollar amount than the owners. The players want the minimum to be about $145,000 above what the league is offering.
This is NOT Billionaires and Millionaires arguing as everyone repeats on and in.
Here are the facts.
MLB, who makes gazillions of dollars, and who has the longest season, pays their lowest level players at the lowest amount of any sport. Put another way, MLB owners are the cheapest of the four major sports when it comes to paying the rank and file.
These MLB players, who have the lowest pay in the Big-4, also play a disproportionately higher amount of games.
…63.2% of all players to step on the field in 2019 (the most recent year we have complete, full-season data from the MLBPA) had less than three years of service time. They accounted for 53.6% of days of service time accumulated, but they combined for only 9.8% of player pay… At the opening of the NHL season this year, 23% of players were paid within 10% of the league’s lowest wage. In the NBA, it was just 3%.
Not only do minimum wagers in MLB get paid the least, they also make up the greatest percent of teams games in the four major sports.
The median salary in MLB 2019 was $558,400.
That means half the league was above and half was below that number.
There are some massive salaries in MLB, but half the players make less than $560K.
Moreover, since 2012, the minimum salary is up only 19%, not even keeping pace with United States inflation (20.5%).
MLB salaries have NOT kept up with inflation.
In 2003, the average player had 4.8 years of service time, but that number was 3.7 in 2019. The average player has a shorter window to earn MLB income after reaching the pinnacle of the sport, following years of toiling in the minor leagues. More and more, pre-arb players are being treated as fungible roster pieces.
2 – The Player’s Association wants younger players to be paid more at a younger point. They want to remove the playing time manipulation that teams engage in. Players want upwards of 80 percent of players, not the current 22 percent, to be eligible for Super 2 Status. MLB has said absolutely, 100 percent no to that proposal.
3 – The MLBPA wants there to be $100 million a year in the bonus pool for players in their first three years in the league. The owners are offering $15 million. That’s a massive difference of $85 million dollars, but in the grand scheme it is absolutely nothing to the game/owners.
4 – The Competitive Balance Tax is a hot topic. This is the tax teams have to pay if they exceed the top end spending limit. The owners see it as a positive. The players see it as a salary cap. For more, check out this Travis Sawchik article. Some key points from that piece.
From 2003 to 2019, the last full season before the COVID-19 pandemic, league revenues grew 167%… The base tax threshold rose 76% in that period… From 2011 to 2019, the tax threshold grew by just 15.7%, including four years of no increases and three with 1% increases. Meanwhile, MLB revenues grew 63%.
The owners keep making more and more money, but they aren’t increasing their spending. In essence, the owners are making more money but they aren’t re-investing that money in salaries. The worry from the players side is that the tax on overspending is a salary cap. Owners have no incentive to pay their players more if it they have to pay a penalty if they spend more.
Whatever changes are made/agreed to, 23 of 30 owners have to say, OK.
And then there is this from Joe Sheehan.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE FANTASY GAME?
Some hot taeks.
1 – We don’t know.
Until we get all the answers to everything, we cannot answer this most basic/obvious of questions.
2 – We have no idea when the season will start.
We know that Spring Training games have been canceled through March 5th. To this, the Players Association had this to say.
They are right by the way.
MLB told the MLBPA that things need to be settled by February 28th, or the season will not start on time.
There is still a chance that the season will start on time, but we just don’t know if it will happen.
3 – How rushed will the players be to get ready for the start of the season?
Will the players have enough time to get ready, or will they be rushed? There is so much to be concerned with here as we simply do not have a timetable to work with.
All the players have been locked out. That means they have not had access to training facilities and coaches.
What shape are the players in, mentally and physically? Will it be different for some players than others? Obviously, that is a yes. How much of what hasn’t happened this offseason, the lack of normalcy for players, will impact their regular season performance? Will guys show up hurt? Will guys get hurt trying to get going too quickly? Will injuries occur in-season because players simply didn’t train the same was as they normally do in the offseason because of all the uncertainty?
There are literally hundreds of free agents that need to find a home for 2022. Teams will be welcoming oodles of new players into the clubhouses. There will be position battles that weren’t anticipated. There will be all the rush of trying to get everything in line with what is going on that there are bound to be elevated levels of stress. ere h
4 – We don’t know how many games will be played.
Will the season start on time? Will they play 162 games? Will the cut it back to 150? Maybe they drop the games down to 144? Will it be 120? We just don’t know at this point in time.
5 – What will the season look like, no matter how many games are played?
Another unanswerable question.
Will there be a normal schedule? By that I mean, will there be the normal number of off days through the year? Will the calendar be condensed while the league still tries to play as many games as possible? Will this result in days off for players or pitchers? Will injuries increase due to a change in the norm? Will MLB try to force double-headers on players? Will there be more of the stupid seven inning games? Will there be players on second base in extra innings? We just don’t know.
6 – Will there indeed be a DH as we’ve heard?
We have heard there is agreement with the owners and players to have a designated hitter. Until the CBA is created/agreed to, there is nothing official. I believe we will have the DH in 2022, but it is not official yet.
7 – Will there be other changes to the game?
Everyone wants the game to speed up.
Will the institute a pitch clock?
Will they limit time between innings?
Will the prohibit batters stepping out of the box between pitches?
Will they ban the shift?
Will they turn to a bigger base?
8 – How will the delay to the start of the season impact the players?
- prymtyme — @Ray Flowers assuming that there is a shorten season, would that raise/ lower the value of hitter’s vs pitchers.
This is the right question to ask, but unfortunately, I cannot answer with confidence. Here is why.
A – We don’t know what anyone will look like when they show up for camp. Will they be fully healthy? Will they have trained as diligently in the offseason? Will some guys push too hard to catch up?
B – We don’t know how long camp will last. Will players be allowed the same amount of reps as in the past? If so, great. If not… where does that leave them? Behind physically? Will camp be short meaning that clubs will roll with six-men rotations? Will all pitchers be limited to 75 pitches the first time through, 80 the second time through, and it won’t be pitchers being turned lose until the end of the first month of the season?
C – Will all the players be able to focus on baseball, and baseball alone or will everything that has gone on got in their heads? Assume yes, but who knows. Athletes are certainly creature of habit.
- Sw33tn3ss — For what it’s worth I was hearing it benefits veteran arms who likely will need less time to ramp up before going deeper into games and getting that QS. I mean everyone needs to get in a groove hitters and pitchers but sounds like maybe it’s not a season to take risks on the younger more unproven guys
This is certainly possible, but also pure speculation. We have no idea how teams will handle their staffs (as I noted above). We need more specifics about the overall setup before we can produce an educated guess IMO.
My biggest worries revolve around the health of players and the usage of pitchers. We saw an impact in 2020 with pitchers’ workloads being curtailed, and we saw that impact bleed into the 2021 season as well. As for player health, it is hard enough to stay on the field in regular circumstances, but with offseason routines jumbled, and now the preseason as well, I think it is safe to posit that we shouldn’t be expected less time on the shelf for players in 2022.
Bottom line…
The Owners locked out the players. No matter who is in the wrong/right in negotiations, the Owners stopped the players from doing the work they need to get ready for the 2022 season. Unfortunately, there is no way for us in the fantasy universe, to blanket label all players as this or that. Some will handle all of this well, some won’t. Who will? Who Won’t? That is the unanswerable question me must all grapple with.
