Targets and Touches is a weekly piece that dives into the structural usage of NFL teams from a fantasy football standpoint. Usage in NFL offenses dictates fantasy value. While some high-usage players aren’t top-scoring fantasy assets, low-usage players can sometimes overcome with efficiency. The general principle that “the more usage, the better” is the best advice any fantasy analyst can give.
One of the best ways to identify breakout players before the consensus – look at the volume and increase in role. One of the best ways to identify players destined to bounce back is to see who’s still getting volume in offenses despite some negative results. Chasing fantasy points from previous weeks is one of the biggest blunders made in fantasy football, especially if those fantasy points don’t tell an optimistic usage story.
Each week this piece will provide a spreadsheet that contains both the full-season target and touch totals, along with weekly target and touch totals, for every Running Back (RB), Wide Receiver (WR), and Tight End (TE).
Targets and Touches for Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End Through Week 13:
PAIN LEADERBOARD (MOST TOTAL YARDS WITHOUT A TOUCHDOWN)
INCREASED USAGE
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT
Elliott essentially took over featured running back duties as soon as Rhamondre Stevenson went out with injury. Elliott finished the day with 21 touches, and with Stevenson expected to miss time, I think we’re going to see a few weeks of vintage Zeke. While Zeke isn’t what he once was from an explosiveness perspective, it’s clear he’s a professional that knows where to be and can do a lot of things beyond just running and catching. The Patriots clearly value that and there’s nobody else on this depth chart to compete with him.
JONATHAN MINGO
Mingo is officially taking over for Adam Thielen as the main target on shorter passing attempts, and it’s about time. The one win Panthers are not competing for a playoff spot, and Thielen is 33 years old. Mingo has now seen 6+ targets in four straight games, with 10 coming his way this past weekend. Mingo was a second round pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and it’s it great opportunity for the Panthers to see what they have in him. He’s played better in the second half of 2023, but hopefully they expand his role to some deeper routes in the coming weeks.
NICO COLLINS
Collins has shown this side of himself a few times so far in 2023, but with Tank Dell out for the season, we could see a lot more of this in the second half. While the Texans don’t have a ton of weapons, C.J. Stroud has been making lemonade out of Lemons all year. I’d expect that to continue, and with Dell leaving behind a ton of snaps and targets, I could see Collins shifting into a fully featured role in this offense to finish out the year. I love John Metchie and do think he emerges somewhat, but Collins is the prize in this offense and we should be excited about him.
EVAN ENGRAM
Engram had a fantastic game in Week 13, and found the end-zone for the first time in 2023. While I think Engram has the talent to do this more than he currently does, his biggest fantasy game of the year probably correlates pretty strong to Christian Kirk getting hurt. Once Zay Jones returned to the lineup a few weeks ago, Engram had seen his role in the passing game sink, but Kirk going out opens up a ton of usage in the middle of the field. Expect Engram to continue to fill this role, especially if p gets the start.
Decreased Usage
AUSTIN EKELER
It happens to every RB eventually, but Ekeler looks like a shell of his former self over the last month, and I’m not sure it gets much better down the stretch of 2023. This Chargers offense has been a complete disaster since Josh Palmer went out, and opposing defenses are easily keying in on Ekeler and Keenan Allen as the only players who can stop them. Which is true… Ekeler also looks slower and less explosive than prior years, and he hasn’t seen a featured role in each of the last three games. Times, they’re a changin’.
ADAM THIELEN
So, as much as I respect Adam Thielen, he’s in a position to not only not thrive, but he’s a veteran on a team going the opposite direction. The Panthers are essentially at the point in the year where they’ve waived the white flag and decided to move onto their younger players. As we mentioned with Jonathan Mingo, they’re starting to use him more and see what they have there. Thielen is no doubt a positive for this Panthers team, but they’ve undeniably been using him different than prior games. Tough to put him in a fantasy lineup at this stage in the year.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS OFFENSE (OTHER THAN ZEKE ELLIOTT)
This offense has reached levels of pain that we haven’t seen from a Patriots team since the 90s, and their latest shutout performance in Week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers is another example of how bad things are. Whether it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, The Patriots have one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL, and are rotating players at a bunch of positions. This means that beyond the RB spot, nobody on this offense is worthy of our time fantasy-wise. Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry were used in fantasy relevant at times this year, but with Bourne on IR and Henry in a TE committee, I’ve given up fantasy hope here.
