For many years, I have been confident that RBs who score multiple (more than two) receiving TDs in one season will score less of them in the next season. This has been one of the surest examples of regression to the mean in fantasy football. The reasons essentially were that few runners scored more than two touchdowns in a year so it was statistically unlikely that they'd repeat what was already a rare event. But then 2018 happened.
Let's look at some data. First, here's the number of running backs scoring 3 or more TDs every year since 20021:
From 2002 to 2012, there were never more than 7 RBs in a season to reach the 3 receiving TD level, and about 5 on average. Since 2013, there have been at least 9 each year – and an average of nearly 12. Note the jump in 2018 – fro...
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