Same thing I have said for the past few weeks, we have a few good plays and then a few bad plays with nothing connecting all together. Once again, I will try and give you the best picks I possibly can. Now onto the course preview.
Course Preview
This week we move to the Canadian Open for the first time in two years. The course they will be playing is at St. George’s Golf and country club. This course has not hosted the Canadian open since 2010 so not a lot can be taken from it then. This course plays as a 7,046-yard par 70 with three par 5’s, ten par 4’s and five par3’s. This course last played on the PGA tour for the 2021 British Open but the conditions and course should not play as difficult for this event. This is more of a plodder’s course, and you will need good accuracy off the tee and also on approach where if you miss the greens, you will more than likely end up in a bunker and it will be tough to get up and down. We should see our winner somewhere around 17-19 under par which is not a birdie fest, but it also shouldn’t be hard. The greens here are Bent with Poa Overseed and I will want to find golfers that are good on these types of putting surfaces. A course comp to here is the Rocket Mortgage Classic which seems counter intuitive just because you don’t necessarily want bombers on this course but both Bryson and Matthew Wolff have done well over at the Rocket Mortgage. This week should be fun and a good warm up for the U.S Open next week. Let’s get it!!
Stats I am Looking at
- SG: APP
- SG: Par 5
- SG: Par 4
- Opps Gained
- Par 3 scoring
- ARG/Sand Saves
Player Breakdown
Scottie Scheffler (Cash/GPP)
Comes into the model number 1 in the last 24 rounds. Now I’m not sure if he will win here but the way he has been playing he easily can. Hasn’t really played any comp course except Rocket and he missed the cut.
Justin Thomas (Cash/GPP)
Before missing the cut at the Charles Schwab, he actually finished top 10 4/5 tournaments before that with a win coming at the PGA championship. He has the talent and the tools to win at this course.
Sam Burns (GPP)
I know the price is up there, but I feel like he is either missing the cut or winning a tournament which is a great play to have in GPP. Has the upside and gives himself plenty of opportunities to score and that’s what I want.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (Cash/GPP)
If this turns into a birdie fest, I drop this play down a peg because guys around him fit that bill more but I do like Fitz a bit this week and think he can contend come Sunday. Great on par 3’s and 4’s along with being amazing ARG and sand saves.
Tyrrell Hatton (Cash/GPP)
Seems like a decent spot to deploy him at. Has not missed a cut since November of last year also so seems to be a safe bet to make the cut and do well.
Corey Conners (Cash/GPP)
The hope you have with Conners this week is that his irons are on point like usual and he doesn’t have to play much Arg because he is not great in that aspect. If his irons are on, he can finish top 10 here.
Adam Hadwin (Cash/GPP)
Seems to be a pretty safe play this week and one that I will more than likely be using. He has screwed us in the past, but his skills line up for here and if he makes the cut he will pay off this price.
Chris Kirk (Cash/GPP)
This is my guy for most weeks and that will not change here. This sets up for him and I will not miss out on the smash fest.
Patrick Reed (GPP)
As long as everybody got off Reed, I will be on him now. I do not love chalky Reed because he always chokes. Now this course sets up for him and he plays at the comp courses well. Reed is also elite out of the sand and ARG so that is a boost.
Brendon Todd (Cash/GPP)
I actually don’t hate him here; he is a great putter and also is an accurate guy who will plod his way to top 25 all week.
Cheng Tsung Pan (GPP)
I know this might surprise some of you guys because he really doesn’t smash often, but I like him for this course. Besides his par 5 scoring I like pretty much everything I see. His APP is 6th in this field which is great.
Austin Smotherman (GPP)
If he could just figure out his ARG/sand save game he would actually be higher on my list this week. His irons are great but doesn’t matter if you mess up elsewhere.
Nick Taylor (GPP)
I usually consider him a showdown guy but he has been playing better as of late and plays shorter courses well.
John Huh (GPP)
This field is actually pretty bad, but we still need to figure out the guys who make the cut. If he makes the cut, he should do very well.
David Lipsky (Cash/GPP)
Playing decent and his stats are popping for me this week. Par 5 scoring and opps gained is huge for him so that is good.
Ryan Armour (Cash/GPP)
Usually consider him for coastal courses but he actually is pretty good at all the comp courses, so I do not mind taking a stab at him.
Rory Sabbatini (Cash/GPP)
Plays the Wyndham great and that is one of the main course comps. Risky play at times but he can do well at this course.
Peter Malnati (Cash)
This is going to be a cheap value punt cash play for this week. I don’t believe his upside is huge but he should make the cut and help you cash.
Luke Donald (GPP)
Very inconsistent but is number one in SG: Par 3 and is great ARG/Sand Saves so should be a decent week.
Vaughn Taylor (GPP)
Stats wise he is 14th in my model over the last 24 with his Par 3 scoring and opps gained being top 10 which is something we need to consider.
GPP Core
- Sam Burns
- Cheng Tsung Pan
