A little less than a month ago I talked about free agents and the Qualifying Offer. The info is in, so we can make some statements of fact now. Let’s talk about what we know.
Here is the article that explains what a Qualifying Offer is all about.
Note that of the 96 players offered a QO since 2012, only 10 have accepted the one-year deal.
Who received the one year, $18.4 million offer?
Brandon Belt – I’ve spoken about previously many times. He’s been an under the radar elite level performer the past couple of years on a per plate appearance basis.
Nick Castellanos will turn down the QO and get paid. He already turned down the offer.
Michael Conforto is gonna accept, right? Nope. Reports suggest there is strong interest in the lefty slugger. He already turned down the offer.
Carlos Correa reportedly was offered a huge contract by the Astros.
Freddie Freeman is an MVP, a World Series champ, and he cannot possible do anything other than sign an extension with the Braves, right?
Raisel Iglesias is a pretty wild offer candidate. He was fantabulistic, no dispute there, but $18.4 million for a reliever in an era where teams are nearly as likely to use a reliever as a starter? It would be an all-time record.
Robbie Ray is getting paid… and he might even win the AL Cy Young.
Eduardo Rodriguez – expected to turn down QO according to Jon Morosi (see this video).
Corey Seager is gonna get one of the bigger contracts of the offseason after turning down the QO. He already turned down the offer.
Marcus Semien won a Gold Glove and had a massive offensive season. He already turned down the offer.
Trevor Story will not be a Rockie next year. Book it.
Noah Syndergaard has thrown two innings in two years.
Chris Taylor was a playoff star and had an impressive season flashing his versatility.
Justin Verlander got a couple of updates, and they were big ones.
First, he wants to pitch forever.
Second, it seems like more than half the teams in baseball believe he can.
He will be 39 years old in February, and he’s thrown six innings the last two years, but it sure sounds like he’s gonna get paid, and the chances of him returning to Houston are minimal after he basically ghosted the organization in the playoffs.
Who did NOT receive the QO?
Athletics: Mark Canha
Not a surprising call. A really good baseball player, but the Athletics aren’t paying really good baseball players $18.4 million for one year.
Blue Jays: Steven Matz
The Jays would like to keep him, even offering a multi-year deal.
Brewers: Avisail García
Should get a nice, respectable multi-year deal, but likely at less than the QO per season.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
This is likely the biggest surprise on the list. A future Hall of Famer who has spent his whole career in an LAD uni, he has to work some contract out to remain in L.A., doesn’t he?
Giants: Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood
That’s two fifths of the Giants start rotation, and they also turned down the $22 million extension on Johnny Cueto’s contract. Both AD and AW could accept or turn the offer down. The massive amount of success in S.F. has to be a draw, but with Buster Posey retiring and the potential that they could easily secure a multi-year deal, it’s possible both move on.
Padres: Tommy Pham
He has three seasons of 20/15 and two of 20/20. He went 15/14 in 2021 hitting a mere .229.
Rockies: Jon Gray
For more, check out this podcast.
Twins: Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons
Simmons is a wizard with the glove but he had a .558 OPS last season. He’s not getting a better financial offer this offseason than $18.4 million, so the questions are (A) did he enjoy his time in Minnesota and (B) is he willing to take WAY less to sign a multi-year deal with a larger overall return? Pineda last threw 150 big-league innings in 2016 and he’s thrown less than 140 total innings the last two years. He’s a very strong hurler to round out a rotation though.
White Sox: Carlos Rodon
Other than the Kershaw situation, this is the one that fascinates me the most. You all know the story. A career of injuries. Excellence in 2021… until more injury hit. Who takes a dive into the deep end of the pool with Rodon and will the contract include a copious amount of incentives?