Ray’s Ramblings: Celebrating The Halfway Point

Not every team is at 81 games played, most haven’t actually, but we’re taking the holiday as a sign that it’s a great time to have a discussion about pace and what the season would look like if you did the unscientific, and wholly unreliable, doubling of stats. Yep, we know that isn’t how it works, you can’t just say “double his production to date and that’s what you get in the second half” but it still might be illuminating to look at some players if we do that, so that is exactly what we will do in what follows. I’m doubling all the numbers, assuming the exact same pace in the second half… so here we go.

1: The number of hurlers on pace for 20 loses – Patrick Corbin.

2: The number of hurlers on pace for 20 wins – Gonsolin/Verlander.

3: The number of hurlers on pace to lead the league with 18 hit-by-pitch – Fried/McKenzie/Pivetta.

3: The pitchers on pace to thrown 160-innings with an ERA under two – Gonsolin/McClanahan/Alcantara. In the 21^st century there have only been eight seasons with an ERA under two of at least 160-innings pitched.

7: The number of players on pace for 30 steals – Julio Rodriguez, Edman, Mateo, Arozarena, Trea Turner, Mullins, Bader.

22: The number of relievers on pace for 20 saves. That list includes Corey Knebel, Mark Melancon, Tanner Rainey, Dany Jimenez, all of which seem unlikely to get there.

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— Ray Flowers (@TheRayFlowers) July 2, 2022

Jose Abreu is batting .287 and has been much better of late. He’s also on pace for 18 homers and 72 RBI. He’s gone 25-100 in six of seven full seasons in the bigs.

Luis Arraez is on pace for 180 hits, a .344 average and .419 OBP. He also has a .862 OPS, better than Vlad Guerrero (.851).

Nolan Arenado… like clockwork. He’s on a .290-34-110 pace.

Jose Berrios is on pace to allow a league worst 34 homers. He allowed only 22 homers last season and has never permitted more than 26 previously.

Mookie Betts has been hurt and is only on pace for 12 steals while batting .278. He’s also on pace for 34 homers and 110 runs. His pace is actually well beyond any of that though as he’s played just 61 games. Wow is right.

Shane Bieber is on pace for six victories in 180 innings. The last time he threw 180 innings he won 15 games.

Corbin Burnes had a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP last season. This year he has a 2.36 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Dylan Cease is on pace for 250 punchouts, a year after posting 226. He’s taken his elite 12.28 K/9 mark and pushed it to 13.08 this season. Only three seasons ever with a pitcher over 13.0 with at least 100-innings pitched. Cease is also on pace to lead baseball with 80 walks. He had 68 past year.

C.J. Cron is on pace for a .298-38-128 season. Freddie Freeman has never done that.

Jake Cronenworth is on pace for 100 runs scored.

Adolis Garcia went 31/16 last season. This year he’s on pace to go 30/22. His .771 OPS is lower than Charlie Blackmon (.787).

Josh Hader has never had 40 saves. He’s on pace for 50 this season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is on pace to steal 18 bases with… six homers.

Tyler Mahle… on pace for 204 strikeouts over 184 innings. Oh yeah, also looking at a 6-14 record. Thanks Reds.

Jordan Montgomery is on pace for six wins. He has just nine wins in 46 starts, which is pretty remarkable for a Yankee hurler with has a 3.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in that time.

Cedric Mullins stole 30 bases last year and is on pace for 32 this season. Alas, after hitting 30 bombs in 2021 he’s on a 12 homer pace this year.

Aaron Nola has a 3.13 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and is on pace to strike out more than 230 batters in over 200 innings. Seems like he should be on pace for more than 10 victories.

Martin Perez has a 2.34 ERA this season. That mark is less than half the 5.05 mark he posted the last five campaigns.

Jose Ramirez is on pace to go .292-32-126-94-24. That production looks pretty darn similar to last season’s .266-36-103-111-27 effort.

Rookie Julio Rodriguez is looking at a .277-28-82-90-40 effort. Goodness gracious… he’s nearly on a 30/40 pace which is insane for a rookie.

Taylor Rogers has a career best of 30 saves. He’s on pace to up that mark by fifty percent this season with a pace of 46.

Kyle Schwarber is on pace to go 45-100-100. He’s never hit any of those three numbers before.

Trevor Story has been tremendously uneven this season, zero doubt about that. Adding it all up he’s still on pace to go 20/20 with 104 RBI and 86 runs scored. Ain’t a thing wrong with any of that. He is batting .221 though. Blame the 31 percent K-rate as he’s just not making enough contact at the moment.

Dansby Swanson has one season of 20 homers, one season of 70 RBI, has never scored 80 runs or stole more than 10 bases. He’s on pace to go 28-92-100-24. The steals are the wildest part. He stole 14 bases the last two seasons and has never topped that mark of 10 until this year. Folks, he’s basically on the cusp of a 30/20 effort… and he’s never gone 20/10 before. Oh yeah, the .249 hitter, his mark when he entered the year, is also hitting .301. Talk about working on a career best season.

Rowdy Tellez is on the old 32-106 pace. He’s yet to hit 22 homers or to drive in 55 runs in a season.

Mike Trout is on pace for — zero steals. He has three thefts over 161 games.

Christian Walker is on pace to go 40-80-80 for the D’backs.

Christian Yelich is on pace go to 16/24 with 106 runs scored.

You can hear Ray on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Channel 87, Wednesdays on the Elite Sports Show with Jeff Mans from 4-6 PM EST (Jeff is on all week, M-F). Ray is also on the Fantasy Drive with Kyle Elfrink Friday nights 10p-12a EST and Saturday/Sunday 7-9 PM EST (both days).