Ray’s Ramblings: A 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft

The good folks at the National Fantasy Baseball Championship released the results of a recent 2022 fantasy baseball draft, at least the first rounds of the draft. We will take a look at how that super early draft played out before hitting on a few news and notes.

A 2022 MLB DRAFT

The good folks at the NFBC have started draft season for the 2022 calendar year. Here are some notes from the first Rotowire OC, 12-team mixed league. Here are the results of the first six rounds.

Let’s see here. So much goodness to discuss.

Turner goes #1 which I totally get. Recency bias though? At least a little bit?

Tatis – risk and all health wise, #2. He and Marte are a potentially massive payoff type duo, especially in the steals column, but both players also bring elevated health concerns, do they not?

Bichette and Ramirez power/speed makes it totally understandable that they went there, but that is also early to take a guy that might hit .270 or less. Ditto with Tucker a few picks later.

Unless I’m mistaken, I believe Ohtani is one player but you have to choose each week to use him as a hitter or pitcher. In leagues that allow daily changes he’s the first pick overall with a bullet. The Ohtani team grabbed 4.5 pitchers the first six picks and a DH. One actual position player through six rounds is suboptimal to say the least (more below). Speaking of Ohtani, he was chose Male Athlete of the Year by the AP.

Acuna in the first round, based on talent, of course. With the likelihood that he will struggle to make Opening Day, the odds that he will receive a few more off days than normal (especially early)\ and that a run to 30 steals is likely improbable at this point in time seems risky. Acuna/Robert, if healthy though, hell of a combo. Team #11, if healthy, with Trout/Harper is aces too.

Back to team #12… three of the first five picks are White Sox. I’m not against taking those players early, but it isn’t ideal to have three guys from the same team taking that early is it? Certainly not ideal in our Covid world. Plus, two SPs at that point? What if the opponent is on a hot streak offensively in any given week? What if the ballpark favors offense? What if the weather impacts the White Sox? Too much risk for me with back-to-back pitcher selections that early.

I don’t get taking SP in Rounds 1 & 2… at all. I think taking one pitcher in the first two rounds is risky. I think taking two is just wrong. Speaking of arms…

The NFBC is widely known to be extremely pitcher heavy early. You always gotta play your draft but half this league, through six rounds, has spent at least half their selections on pitching which is pretty darn wild.

Team #1 took three pitchers first six rounds.
Team #2 – three first five rounds.
Team #5 – three first five rounds.
Team #7 – 4.5 the first six rounds.
Team #9 – three first six rounds.
Team #12 – three in five rounds.

Team #3 took a risk with Bieber after his half season and basically a full round ahead of deGrom. That’s also two Guardians in the first two rounds which elevates the risk a bit too. Speaking of risk, Chris Sale went in the 5^th round as well. That’s three guys who all threw half or less of their expected innings last season, all coming at a discount from 2021 but all still being drafted to be star level pitchers in 2022. Interesting.

Manny Machado… is he four rounds better than Nolan Arenado? The steals Ray! Remember, he has stolen 10 bases twice in six years. Speaking of those two… why is Machado going three rounds ahead of Paul Goldschmidt? I don’t get it either, and if you agree with the way it played out, let me know in Discord.

Francisco Lindor in the 3^rd round – I get it. Same time, as we saw in the draft, Xander Bogaerts was there a round later. Lindor, theoretically, brings a significant boost in the speed department, but after Lindor’s production the last two years it is pushing things a bit to have him ahead of Xander and Tim Anderson, no? So interesting to see four shortstops – Story – go in seven picks. Runs happen all the time, so you gotta be prepped. Note that only one other SS eligible player was taken the next 2+ rounds.

Team #8 took Adalberto Mondesi in Round 5. We all know the story now, right? IF you are the go big or go home type, you take the risk in Round 5. If he plays 80 games, he could return that value. Same time, he might hit .220 and he might only play 80 games. Biggest risk/reward player in the game.

Three catchers in the first six rounds. Hard to argue that taking Will Smith three rounds after Perez and two rounds after Realmuto isn’t a solid play, if you are the kind that wants to dive into backstops early that is.

Oh, and the closer love… that seems pretty insane to me.

Five closers in top-50, 10 in the first 100 picks, 15 off the board after 150 in the debut @RotoWireMLB OC on @TheNFBC ⤵️ https://t.co/Xi8hGmcjce

— Greg Jewett (@gjewett9) December 23, 2021

As I do every year, I will write a long article in the upcoming 2022 Draft Guide about the turmoil at the position. Why folks want to bank so heavily on relievers… just not a smart move if you look at the history of things. Further, I find it bordering on insanity to be taking a closer in the third round. Ok, that isn’t bordering, that is over the line. Just wow. Taking two in the first five rounds? Yikes as well.

THIS AND THAT

Wild story. Did a John Denver song get Billy Martin fired?

Bill “Space Man” Lee… a quick bio.

Ivan Nova, who didn’t appear in a big-league game las season, is on his way to the KBO. The ground ball specialist, who made 34 starts for the White Sox as recently as 2019, might be done as a big leaguer given that he is 34 years of age.

The Braves and a beautiful model.

That’s one extremely expensive comic.