In a previous article we talked about the home run and the batter, the natural way to look at the homer question. But what about the men who allow the homer? Which men were blasted by the big fly and which men kept the ball in the yard with high levels of success in 2022?
HOMERS ALLOWED
With no context, just a listing of the big flies allowed, here are the “leaders” from 2022.
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | HR |
Josiah Gray | WSN | 28 | 28 | 148.2 | 38 |
Gerrit Cole | NYY | 33 | 33 | 200.2 | 33 |
Robbie Ray | SEA | 32 | 32 | 189 | 32 |
Marco Gonzales | SEA | 32 | 32 | 183 | 30 |
German Marquez | COL | 31 | 31 | 181.2 | 30 |
Jose Berrios | TOR | 32 | 32 | 172 | 29 |
Jose Urquidy | HOU | 29 | 28 | 164.1 | 29 |
Sean Manaea | SDP | 30 | 28 | 158 | 29 |
Charlie Morton | ATL | 31 | 31 | 172 | 28 |
Nick Pivetta | BOS | 33 | 33 | 179.2 | 27 |
Eric Lauer | MIL | 29 | 29 | 158.2 | 27 |
Patrick Corbin | WSN | 31 | 31 | 152.2 | 27 |
Jordan Lyles | BAL | 32 | 32 | 179 | 26 |
Jameson Taillon | NYY | 32 | 32 | 177.1 | 26 |
Miles Mikolas | STL | 33 | 32 | 202.1 | 25 |
Triston McKenzie | CLE | 31 | 30 | 191.1 | 25 |
Cole Irvin | OAK | 30 | 30 | 181 | 25 |
Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 30 | 30 | 158.2 | 25 |
Chad Kuhl | COL | 27 | 27 | 137 | 25 |
Kyle Gibson | PHI | 31 | 31 | 167.2 | 24 |
Lucas Giolito | CHW | 30 | 30 | 161.2 | 24 |
Dylan Bundy | MIN | 29 | 29 | 140 | 24 |
Hunter Greene | CIN | 24 | 24 | 125.2 | 24 |
Paolo Espino | WSN | 42 | 19 | 113.1 | 24 |
Mike Minor | CIN | 19 | 19 | 98 | 24 |
Now, let’s provide some context.
HOMER PER NINE: 150+ INNINGS PITCHED – BAD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Sean Manaea | SDP | 30 | 28 | 158 | 4.05 | 3.96 | 29 | 42.50% | 14.90% | 1.65 |
Jose Urquidy | HOU | 29 | 28 | 164.1 | 4.56 | 4.32 | 29 | 44.80% | 12.90% | 1.59 |
Patrick Corbin | WSN | 31 | 31 | 152.2 | 6.41 | 4.21 | 27 | 33.00% | 15.60% | 1.59 |
Eric Lauer | MIL | 29 | 29 | 158.2 | 4.02 | 4.08 | 27 | 44.20% | 14.10% | 1.53 |
Robbie Ray | SEA | 32 | 32 | 189 | 3.59 | 3.58 | 32 | 41.90% | 15.50% | 1.52 |
Jose Berrios | TOR | 32 | 32 | 172 | 5.11 | 4.21 | 29 | 39.70% | 13.50% | 1.52 |
German Marquez | COL | 31 | 31 | 181.2 | 4.49 | 4.02 | 30 | 31.80% | 16.90% | 1.49 |
Gerrit Cole | NYY | 33 | 33 | 200.2 | 3.31 | 2.78 | 33 | 40.60% | 16.80% | 1.48 |
Marco Gonzales | SEA | 32 | 32 | 183 | 4.59 | 4.88 | 30 | 39.10% | 12.40% | 1.48 |
Charlie Morton | ATL | 31 | 31 | 172 | 4.11 | 3.61 | 28 | 38.60% | 16.50% | 1.47 |
Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 30 | 30 | 158.2 | 5.53 | 4.83 | 25 | 41.90% | 11.50% | 1.42 |
Nick Pivetta | BOS | 33 | 33 | 179.2 | 4.65 | 4.26 | 27 | 41.90% | 12.40% | 1.35 |
Lucas Giolito | CHW | 30 | 30 | 161.2 | 4.23 | 3.66 | 24 | 36.80% | 14.40% | 1.34 |
Jameson Taillon | NYY | 32 | 32 | 177.1 | 4.20 | 3.79 | 26 | 39.30% | 12.40% | 1.32 |
Luis Garcia | HOU | 28 | 28 | 157.1 | 3.59 | 3.82 | 23 | 43.60% | 12.10% | 1.32 |
Jordan Lyles | BAL | 32 | 32 | 179 | 4.94 | 4.40 | 26 | 40.20% | 11.40% | 1.31 |
Kyle Gibson | PHI | 31 | 31 | 167.2 | 4.46 | 3.94 | 24 | 33.80% | 13.90% | 1.29 |
Cole Irvin | OAK | 30 | 30 | 181 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 25 | 42.10% | 10.50% | 1.24 |
Sean Manaea started well, but by seasons end he was a mess.
Jose Urquidy doesn’t beat himself with the walk, which helps to offset some of the homer pain.
Eric Lauer and Robbie Ray skirted the homer issue, to a large degree, whereas Jose Berrios simply was not able to.
Gerrit Cole seems to have one weakness at this point of his career – the home run.
HOMER PER NINE: 150+ INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Jose Quintana | – – – | 32 | 32 | 165.2 | 3.86 | 3.72 | 8 | 31.10% | 5.30% | 0.43 |
Framber Valdez | HOU | 31 | 31 | 201.1 | 3.31 | 3.00 | 11 | 16.00% | 12.50% | 0.49 |
Martin Perez | TEX | 32 | 32 | 196.1 | 3.59 | 3.80 | 11 | 29.80% | 6.50% | 0.50 |
Logan Webb | SFG | 32 | 32 | 192.1 | 3.59 | 3.32 | 11 | 23.80% | 8.30% | 0.51 |
Max Fried | ATL | 30 | 30 | 185.1 | 2.85 | 3.09 | 12 | 29.60% | 7.80% | 0.58 |
Carlos Rodon | SFG | 31 | 31 | 178 | 2.64 | 2.91 | 12 | 44.60% | 6.50% | 0.61 |
Justin Verlander | HOU | 28 | 28 | 175 | 2.66 | 3.23 | 12 | 43.60% | 6.20% | 0.62 |
Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 32 | 32 | 228.2 | 2.92 | 3.29 | 16 | 30.60% | 8.50% | 0.63 |
Tyler Anderson | LAD | 30 | 28 | 178.2 | 3.10 | 4.11 | 14 | 42.00% | 6.40% | 0.71 |
Alek Manoah | TOR | 31 | 31 | 196.2 | 3.31 | 3.98 | 16 | 41.90% | 7.10% | 0.73 |
Zac Gallen | ARI | 31 | 31 | 184 | 3.17 | 3.32 | 15 | 36.10% | 9.10% | 0.73 |
Adam Wainwright | STL | 32 | 32 | 191.2 | 4.53 | 4.10 | 16 | 32.90% | 8.10% | 0.75 |
Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 28 | 28 | 166 | 2.68 | 2.65 | 14 | 38.30% | 9.30% | 0.76 |
Zack Wheeler | PHI | 26 | 26 | 153 | 3.10 | 3.06 | 13 | 32.90% | 9.80% | 0.76 |
Kevin Gausman | TOR | 31 | 31 | 174.2 | 3.34 | 2.76 | 15 | 36.10% | 8.50% | 0.77 |
Dylan Cease | CHW | 32 | 32 | 184 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 16 | 43.80% | 8.40% | 0.78 |
Luis Castillo | – – – | 25 | 25 | 150.1 | 3.31 | 3.23 | 13 | 33.50% | 10.00% | 0.78 |
Mitch Keller | PIT | 31 | 29 | 159 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 14 | 28.50% | 10.40% | 0.79 |
Not too surprising to see this list populated by guys who were fantasy stars in 2022.
Jose Quintana had one of the more remarkable comeback seasons in recent memory and keeping the ball in the part was a huge piece of that.
Framber Valdez simply doesn’t allow the home run. That makes sense given he allows the fly ball.
Martin Perez and Logan Webb had a sub 30 percent fly ball rate aiding their quest.
Carlos Rodon had a near 45 percent fly ball rate… so there was some fortune to the lack of homers. His numbers were nearly identical to Justin Verlander.
HOMERS PER NINE: 100-149.2 INNINGS PITCHED – BAD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Josiah Gray | WSN | 28 | 28 | 148.2 | 4.25 | 4.57 | 38 | 49.20% | 18.60% | 2.30 |
Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | 32 | 20 | 100.2 | 5.63 | 4.07 | 23 | 37.00% | 23.70% | 2.06 |
Paolo Espino | WSN | 42 | 19 | 113.1 | 4.78 | 4.14 | 24 | 41.30% | 16.00% | 1.91 |
Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 20 | 20 | 109.1 | 4.31 | 3.46 | 21 | 36.50% | 17.20% | 1.73 |
Hunter Greene | CIN | 24 | 24 | 125.2 | 4.00 | 3.64 | 24 | 48.50% | 16.10% | 1.72 |
Chad Kuhl | COL | 27 | 27 | 137 | 5.31 | 4.78 | 25 | 39.80% | 14.30% | 1.64 |
Jon Heasley | KCR | 21 | 21 | 104 | 5.35 | 5.49 | 19 | 45.20% | 12.30% | 1.64 |
Tyler Alexander | DET | 27 | 17 | 101 | 5.42 | 4.77 | 18 | 42.70% | 12.60% | 1.60 |
Mike Clevinger | SDP | 23 | 22 | 114.1 | 4.65 | 4.76 | 20 | 45.80% | 12.60% | 1.57 |
Bryse Wilson | PIT | 25 | 20 | 115.2 | 5.53 | 4.54 | 20 | 35.00% | 14.80% | 1.56 |
Dylan Bundy | MIN | 29 | 29 | 140 | 4.34 | 4.70 | 24 | 45.80% | 11.20% | 1.54 |
Erick Fedde | WSN | 27 | 27 | 127 | 5.45 | 4.74 | 21 | 35.60% | 14.10% | 1.49 |
Daniel Lynch | KCR | 27 | 27 | 131.2 | 5.07 | 4.30 | 21 | 37.20% | 13.50% | 1.44 |
Austin Gomber | COL | 33 | 17 | 124.2 | 4.59 | 4.19 | 20 | 37.10% | 13.70% | 1.44 |
Zach Davies | ARI | 27 | 27 | 134.1 | 4.56 | 4.58 | 21 | 39.70% | 13.00% | 1.41 |
Lance Lynn | CHW | 21 | 21 | 121.2 | 3.62 | 3.44 | 19 | 38.10% | 14.00% | 1.41 |
Zach Thompson | PIT | 29 | 22 | 121.2 | 5.14 | 4.44 | 19 | 32.60% | 14.50% | 1.41 |
Glenn Otto | TEX | 27 | 27 | 135.2 | 5.01 | 4.82 | 21 | 37.30% | 14.10% | 1.39 |
Tyler Wells | BAL | 23 | 23 | 103.2 | 3.78 | 4.60 | 16 | 46.50% | 11.00% | 1.39 |
Drew Smyly | CHC | 22 | 22 | 106.1 | 4.17 | 4.18 | 16 | 42.30% | 11.70% | 1.35 |
Zach Plesac | CLE | 25 | 24 | 131.2 | 5.28 | 4.40 | 19 | 38.40% | 11.70% | 1.30 |
Kyle Bradish | BAL | 23 | 23 | 117.2 | 4.49 | 4.01 | 17 | 33.30% | 14.90% | 1.30 |
You cannot allow two homers per nine. It is impossible to have success long-term doing that Josiah Gray and Yusei Kikuchi. In fact, anything over 1.50 is really, really bad.
HOMERS PER NINE: 100-149.2 INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 27 | 27 | 148.2 | 3.91 | 3.67 | 8 | 30.80% | 6.30% | 0.48 |
Spencer Strider | ATL | 31 | 20 | 131.2 | 2.39 | 2.30 | 7 | 37.10% | 6.80% | 0.48 |
Alex Cobb | SFG | 28 | 28 | 149.2 | 3.15 | 2.89 | 9 | 20.70% | 10.20% | 0.54 |
Dakota Hudson | STL | 27 | 26 | 139.2 | 5.01 | 4.82 | 9 | 28.10% | 7.20% | 0.58 |
Justin Steele | CHC | 24 | 24 | 119 | 3.59 | 3.48 | 8 | 27.90% | 8.70% | 0.61 |
Tarik Skubal | DET | 21 | 21 | 117.2 | 3.34 | 3.40 | 9 | 35.20% | 7.90% | 0.69 |
Adrian Houser | MIL | 22 | 21 | 102.2 | 4.94 | 4.64 | 8 | 29.90% | 8.00% | 0.70 |
Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 22 | 22 | 126.1 | 2.51 | 2.83 | 10 | 33.40% | 9.10% | 0.71 |
Andre Pallante | STL | 47 | 10 | 108 | 3.78 | 3.71 | 9 | 17.30% | 15.30% | 0.75 |
Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 24 | 24 | 130.1 | 3.12 | 3.70 | 11 | 39.20% | 8.30% | 0.76 |
Blake Snell | SDP | 24 | 24 | 128 | 3.19 | 3.21 | 11 | 42.70% | 8.30% | 0.77 |
Dean Kremer | BAL | 22 | 21 | 125.1 | 4.46 | 4.43 | 11 | 39.40% | 7.30% | 0.79 |
Drew Rasmussen | TBR | 28 | 28 | 146 | 3.46 | 3.56 | 13 | 34.20% | 9.00% | 0.80 |
Ross Stripling | TOR | 32 | 24 | 134.1 | 3.57 | 3.67 | 12 | 39.00% | 7.70% | 0.80 |
Max Scherzer | NYM | 23 | 23 | 145.1 | 2.87 | 3.23 | 13 | 49.60% | 7.50% | 0.81 |
Sonny Gray | MIN | 24 | 24 | 119.2 | 3.67 | 3.66 | 11 | 35.70% | 9.40% | 0.83 |
Adrian Sampson | CHC | 21 | 19 | 104.1 | 4.40 | 4.39 | 10 | 40.00% | 7.70% | 0.86 |
George Kirby | SEA | 25 | 25 | 130 | 3.31 | 3.33 | 13 | 38.10% | 9.00% | 0.90 |
Jesus Luzardo | MIA | 18 | 18 | 100.1 | 3.39 | 3.11 | 10 | 36.00% | 11.50% | 0.90 |
Look at that ground ball rate of Andre Pallante. His mark was less than half of the rate of Blake Snell. Which guy has a better shot at limiting the home run next year ya think?
Max Scherzer and his near 50 percent fly ball rate was pretty fortunate to have so few home runs.
Cristian Javier was barely at one per nine despite a nearly 57 percent fly ball rate.
HOMERS PER NINE: 50-99.2 INNINGS PITCHED – BAD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Elieser Hernandez | MIA | 20 | 10 | 62.1 | 4.81 | 5.03 | 19 | 57.40% | 17.40% | 2.74 |
Mike Mayers | LAA | 24 | 3 | 50.2 | 5.31 | 4.63 | 15 | 45.60% | 20.80% | 2.66 |
Bruce Zimmermann | BAL | 15 | 13 | 73.2 | 6.53 | 4.42 | 21 | 40.60% | 20.40% | 2.57 |
Mike Minor | CIN | 19 | 19 | 98 | 4.59 | 5.21 | 24 | 44.40% | 16.40% | 2.20 |
Adam Oller | OAK | 19 | 14 | 74.1 | 5.82 | 6.06 | 17 | 51.40% | 13.40% | 2.06 |
Zach Logue | OAK | 14 | 10 | 57 | 5.97 | 5.32 | 13 | 50.80% | 13.40% | 2.05 |
Adrian Martinez | OAK | 12 | 12 | 57.2 | 5.38 | 4.11 | 13 | 35.90% | 19.70% | 2.03 |
Ian Kennedy | ARI | 57 | 0 | 50.1 | 6.13 | 5.06 | 11 | 48.20% | 13.90% | 1.97 |
Caleb Smith | ARI | 44 | 1 | 70 | 3.86 | 5.15 | 14 | 53.10% | 13.60% | 1.80 |
Austin Pruitt | OAK | 39 | 1 | 55.1 | 3.94 | 4.18 | 11 | 40.30% | 15.50% | 1.79 |
Phil Bickford | LAD | 60 | 0 | 61 | 3.46 | 3.57 | 12 | 47.80% | 15.60% | 1.77 |
Andrew Heaney | LAD | 16 | 14 | 72.2 | 3.39 | 2.83 | 14 | 46.40% | 17.90% | 1.73 |
Brandon Hughes | CHC | 57 | 0 | 57.2 | 3.86 | 3.78 | 11 | 44.40% | 17.50% | 1.72 |
Bailey Falter | PHI | 20 | 16 | 84 | 4.62 | 4.13 | 16 | 44.00% | 14.40% | 1.71 |
Emilio Pagan | MIN | 59 | 0 | 63 | 3.91 | 3.26 | 12 | 40.40% | 18.50% | 1.71 |
Anibal Sanchez | WSN | 14 | 14 | 69.1 | 4.65 | 5.27 | 13 | 44.80% | 14.30% | 1.69 |
Colin Poche | TBR | 65 | 0 | 58.2 | 3.51 | 4.05 | 11 | 49.00% | 14.30% | 1.69 |
Daniel Norris | – – – | 41 | 3 | 58.2 | 4.49 | 3.99 | 11 | 34.70% | 21.60% | 1.69 |
Matthew Festa | SEA | 53 | 0 | 54 | 3.72 | 3.47 | 10 | 44.70% | 16.90% | 1.67 |
Devin Smeltzer | MIN | 15 | 12 | 70.1 | 4.34 | 4.98 | 13 | 45.70% | 12.70% | 1.66 |
Matt Bush | – – – | 65 | 6 | 59.2 | 2.64 | 3.28 | 11 | 43.50% | 17.20% | 1.66 |
Dallas Keuchel | – – – | 14 | 14 | 60.2 | 5.49 | 4.72 | 11 | 28.20% | 17.20% | 1.63 |
Noe Ramirez | ARI | 55 | 0 | 50 | 4.17 | 4.44 | 9 | 41.70% | 16.40% | 1.62 |
Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 16 | 16 | 84.1 | 5.07 | 4.46 | 15 | 42.70% | 13.50% | 1.60 |
Remember the two homers per nine thing is bad… look at some of the hideous numbers here. Wow.
Adrian Martinez was the only guy in the top-15 with a fly ball rate under 40 percent.
HOMERS PER NINE: 50-99.2 INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD
Name | Team | G | GS | IP | xERA | xFIP | HR | FB% | HR/FB | HR/9 |
Nick Nelson | PHI | 47 | 2 | 68.2 | 3.64 | 4.47 | 1 | 38.30% | 1.30% | 0.13 |
Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 61 | 1 | 65.1 | 2.92 | 3.28 | 1 | 39.30% | 1.50% | 0.14 |
Duane Underwood Jr. | PIT | 51 | 1 | 57.1 | 4.11 | 3.91 | 1 | 27.50% | 2.10% | 0.16 |
Brayan Bello | BOS | 13 | 11 | 57.1 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1 | 23.00% | 2.40% | 0.16 |
Clay Holmes | NYY | 62 | 0 | 63.2 | 2.41 | 2.90 | 2 | 12.10% | 10.00% | 0.28 |
David Phelps | TOR | 65 | 1 | 63.2 | 3.91 | 4.26 | 2 | 38.50% | 3.10% | 0.28 |
Evan Phillips | LAD | 64 | 0 | 63 | 2.18 | 2.72 | 2 | 37.50% | 3.90% | 0.29 |
Devin Williams | MIL | 65 | 0 | 60.2 | 2.04 | 2.36 | 2 | 28.80% | 6.30% | 0.30 |
Bryan Abreu | HOU | 55 | 0 | 60.1 | 2.96 | 2.69 | 2 | 31.50% | 4.90% | 0.30 |
Gregory Soto | DET | 64 | 0 | 60.1 | 4.08 | 4.59 | 2 | 36.30% | 3.40% | 0.30 |
Jason Foley | DET | 60 | 0 | 60.1 | 3.62 | 3.56 | 2 | 25.30% | 4.00% | 0.30 |
Dennis Santana | TEX | 63 | 1 | 58.2 | 3.89 | 4.20 | 2 | 30.40% | 3.90% | 0.31 |
Cionel Perez | BAL | 66 | 0 | 57.2 | 3.62 | 3.56 | 2 | 30.10% | 4.30% | 0.31 |
Wandy Peralta | NYY | 56 | 0 | 56.1 | 2.66 | 3.61 | 2 | 29.90% | 4.30% | 0.32 |
Ryne Stanek | HOU | 59 | 0 | 54.2 | 3.19 | 3.95 | 2 | 39.70% | 3.80% | 0.33 |
Alex Vesia | LAD | 63 | 0 | 54.1 | 2.79 | 3.03 | 2 | 42.50% | 3.90% | 0.33 |
Jose Alvarado | PHI | 59 | 0 | 51 | 2.53 | 2.16 | 2 | 24.30% | 7.70% | 0.35 |
Tyler Rogers | SFG | 68 | 0 | 75.2 | 3.36 | 4.12 | 3 | 25.50% | 4.90% | 0.36 |
Matt Moore | TEX | 63 | 0 | 74 | 2.83 | 3.87 | 3 | 39.40% | 4.20% | 0.36 |
Emmanuel Clase | CLE | 77 | 0 | 72.2 | 1.97 | 2.18 | 3 | 20.00% | 8.30% | 0.37 |
Bryan Baker | BAL | 66 | 2 | 69.2 | 3.22 | 3.56 | 3 | 35.30% | 4.60% | 0.39 |
Rafael Montero | HOU | 71 | 0 | 68.1 | 2.70 | 3.22 | 3 | 31.20% | 5.70% | 0.40 |
Hector Neris | HOU | 70 | 0 | 65.1 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 3 | 42.80% | 4.40% | 0.41 |
John Schreiber | BOS | 64 | 0 | 65 | 2.57 | 3.01 | 3 | 31.00% | 6.10% | 0.42 |
Trevor Stephan | CLE | 66 | 0 | 63.2 | 2.34 | 2.81 | 3 | 33.10% | 5.70% | 0.42 |
Edwin Diaz | NYM | 61 | 0 | 62 | 1.69 | 1.04 | 3 | 33.30% | 9.40% | 0.44 |
Sam Hentges | CLE | 57 | 0 | 62 | 2.79 | 2.67 | 3 | 23.00% | 8.80% | 0.44 |
Luis Garcia | SDP | 64 | 0 | 61 | 2.83 | 3.11 | 3 | 28.10% | 6.40% | 0.44 |
Daniel Bard | COL | 57 | 0 | 60.1 | 2.49 | 3.30 | 3 | 29.90% | 6.80% | 0.45 |
Tanner Houck | BOS | 32 | 4 | 60 | 3.86 | 3.68 | 3 | 26.10% | 7.10% | 0.45 |
The top-4 guys allowed a single homer: Nick Nelson, Reynaldo Lopez, Duane Underwood, Brayan Bello.
Check out Clay Holmes fly ball rate. Conversely, check out the mark Alex Vesia.
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