It sounds like the 2021 Qualifying Offer will be a 1-year, $18.9 million deal. Mr. Flowers gives some notes on the players that are eligible for the offer this offseason. Ray also touches on some relevant playoff info. Well, at least it is interesting stuff.
THE QUALIFYING OFFER
Sounds like the QO will be worth $18.9 million this year, a year after it was $17.8 million. Why did it go up? The number is based off the 125 top player’s salaries, so it’s merely a formulaic number that gets spit out. If any player is signed after not accepting the 1-year offer from his current team, the signing team will have to lose a draft pick, and of course pay the salary of the newly signed player. Here are some of the players who could be extended offers by their current clubs.
*All 2019 contract details were based on the full salaries of the players, not the actual monies they were paid due to the shortening of the season and negotiations with baseball.
Trevor Bauer has said he wouldn’t mind pitching on 1-year deals moving forward. The Reds will obviously extend the QO if they can’t work something out. Bauer has spent the last 24 hours on Twitter talking about pitching for the Padres and Yankees as he continues to stir up the pot.
Michael Brantley is coming off a 2-year, $32 million deal. Aging players aren’t getting the big deals they used to, but Brantley was the same old steady performer this year that he has always been with a .300/.364/.476 slash line.
Kevin Gausman had a one-year, $9 million deal this season, and he pitched very well for the Giants. He dropped his ERA to 3.62 and his WHIP to 1.11 with a massive 11.92 strikeouts per nine. He also had a four year best in the walk rate leading to a career best 4.94 K/BB ratio. He will be one of the most sought-after right-handed pitchers in baseball this offseason and it seems unlikely, even if extended the offer, that Gausman would have any designs on accepting it.
Ken Giles could miss all of next year as he works back from Tommy John surgery.
Didi Gregorius played on a $14 million deal this season and went .284-10-40 over 60 games, and here are his numbers the last 142: .256-36-101-81. He’s a slightly better offensive player than a Paul DeJong type.
Liam Hendricks is a fascinating case. The A’s obviously will try to re-sign him, but will they extend the QO and risk paying him a franchise high dollar amount? Given that they only had two guys on the books this season making more than $10 million this year… Hendricks has arguably been the best closer in baseball the last two years and he posted insane marks of 0.67 in the WHIP category and 12.33 in the K/BB ratio this year.
D.J. LeMahieu will certainly be extended the offer. Do you realize that the last two years his slash line is .336/.386/.536? He’s been fantabulistic. He earned “just” $24 million the last two years doing that.
Mike Minor is becoming a free agent a year late. The A’s won’t be extending him a QO becuase he isn’t eligible after being dealt mid-year. His last contract was 3-years, $28 million. He would be fortunate to repeat those numbers this time around.
Joc Pederson can play first and the outfield. He can hit right-handed pitching. He also can’t hit lefties, doesn’t run, and really isn’t much more than a solid platoon player. Coming off a $7.75 million deal in 2020, the Dodgers won’t be extending him the QO this year.
Robbie Ray can’t be getting the offer from the Jays because you know he would accept it – plus he is no eligible since he was dealt mid-season. At this point, he may not be able to get more than $18.9 million on a 2-year deal. Over the last three years he’s walked 5.12 batters per nine and that includes an insane 7.84 mark this season. Someone will certainly believe they can “fix” him. No one has yet.
J.T. Realmuto is arguably the best hitting catcher in baseball at this point, and he had another productive season (.266-11-32-33). He will be 30 years old at the start of next season so it will be fascinating how many years, and what the dollars look like, on his next contract.
Garrett Richards is always overvalued in the fantasy game. He was effective this season with a 1.25 WHIP and eight strikeouts per nine, but he has an extensive track record of ill health with the last time he’s thrown 80 big league innings coming in 2015.
Marcus Semien nearly won the AL MVP last year. This season he suffered from a catastrophic loss of production going .223-7-23-28-4 with a .679 OPS. Remove that 2019 effort and he’s been a good player. Will he be paid based on his career, 2019 or 2020?
George Springer will certainly be extended the offer. He’s currently crushing in the playoffs, and during the year he was rock solid going .265-14-32-37 with a .899 OPS. He will get paid this offseason when he turns the offer down.
Marcus Stroman should be fully healthy for the start of 2021, but he didn’t throw a pitch this season.
Masahiro Tanaka is nearly 32 years old and is a solid starter. He posted a 1.17 WHIP and a 5.50 K/BB ratio as he continues to get batters out at a very solid clip, even if he’s nowhere near being labeled an ace of any kind.
Jonathan Villar stole 16 bases, but he was awful offensively (.593), was traded and by the end of the year was a bench guy. He cannot get the offer since he switched teams mid-season.
Kirby Yates pitched just 4.1 innings before having surgery. No chance he is extended the offer.
Players can only receive the QO once in their careers. That means the following list of players are not eligible to again receive the offer this offseason (list from MLB Trade Rumors).
Brett Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Wade Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Marco Estrada, Alex Gordon, Greg Holland, Ubaldo Jimenez, Howie Kendrick, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, Daniel Murphy, Jake Odorizzi, Marcell Ozuna, David Robertson, Jeff Samardzija, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Santana, Mark Trumbo, Justin Turner, Neil Walker, Matt Wieters, Jordan Zimmermann
“Spreadsheet” baseball continues. Today, the A’s are hitting Chad Pinder 3rd against Zack Greinke. He’s hit third in 10 of 367 career games.
Why are players making their Major League debuts in the playoffs?
The Braves pitchers have allowed five runs in four games leading to a 1.13 ERA and .446 OPS.
Ian Anderson is the first pitcher, under 23 years of age, to have two postseason starts in the same year of five innings without allowing a run since 2013 (Michael Wacha).
Randy Arozarena has three hits in three games. He has a homer in three games. He has at least two hits in four games. He has at least one extra base hit in 5-straight. Just mashing.
Khris Davis has three homers in the postseason. He hit two in the regular season.
Giancarlo Stanton is the first player – ever – to have a homer each of the first five games of the postseason in a single year.