By Ray Flowers
In a series of four articles, Ray Flowers will review the first half fantasy baseball performances across the land. He will a series of questions such as – most and least valuable players at each position. There will be four articles in the series, written during the 2024 MLB All-Star Break: Infielders, Outfielders, Starting Pitchers & Relievers.
POSITIONAL VIDEO REVIEW
For my video review of a host of starting pitchers. and their first half efforts, here you go.
*Players reviewed include: Sale, Skubal, Lugo, Ranger Suarez, Houck, Crochet, Gil, Reynaldo Lopez, Skenes, J. Jones, Stone, Waldron, P. Lopez, Z. Eflin, Bassitt.
1st Half Injuries: Strider, Yamamoto, Snell, Cole, B. Miller, Luzardo, E. Perez, M. Kelly, Musgrove, Bieber, Verlander, Buehler, Woo, G. Williams, E-Rod, Garrett, Bradish, C. Javier
THE DAILY SHOW
Don’t forget about FREE show, Fantasy Sports Daily, M-F, 12pm EST. On the show this morning, here is a list of players we touched on.
You’re really missing out if you don’t tune in to the show either on the website, on YouTube, or at your favorite podcast service.
Find the show in podcast form on Pandora, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts.
1st HALF AWARDS
Positional MVP: CHRIS SALE, ATL
Sale has gone 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 140 punchouts in 110-innings. That win total is already his highest mark since 2017. The last time he had an ERA under 3.15 was 2018. His WHIP was 1.19 the last three years during which time he struck out 182 batters in 151 innings. If Sale throws zero pitches the rest of the season – he would still have blown past expectations this year. The most remarkable piece of this effort is his 110 innings pitched. He’s currently 26th in innings and has failed to go five innings just once this season. A spectacular first half.
Positional LVP: KEVIN GAUSMAN, TOR
His ADP was top-6 at the pitcher spot on draft day, and he’s barely inside the top-75 pitchers at the Break. We knew there was a shoulder issue to start the year, but this is still a disappointing effort. Some games he has “it”, while in others his stuff is simply average. He’s made 19 starts taking the ball, but the results are league average (at best). Here are the numbers: 7-8, 4.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with a 23.2 K-rate. Remember that the last three years he’s posted a 1.15 WHIP, 29.6 K-rate and 3.10 ERA. He has not been that guy this season, and without fortune in the wins column, he’s just been boring.
Most Disappointing (non-injury): PABLO LOPEZ, MIN
He’s on pace to better his career best total of 11 victories last season, he has eight, but his 3.66 ERA has exploded to over five, and his 1.11 HR/9 rate from last season is through the roof at 1.56. His last 10 starts he has a 6.20 ERA. He’s simply uneven from start to start, and that leaves you wondering what guy will show up each turn through the rotation. His 1.18 WHIP works, and 10.47 punchouts per nine is an elite number, so there is hope that things will improve in the second half. In fact, they should.
Out of nowhere Performer: SETH LUGO, KC / RANGER SUAREZ PHI / GARRETT CROCHET CWS
From Lugo’s preseason Player Profile. “I’m here to tell you, that if you’re in the right setup, maybe you should care about Seth Lugo… When you factor in the cost, Lugo seems to be an ideal addition, that is if you can get him at ADP or later. Don’t reach to roster Lugo, don’t stretch to make it happen, but realize that if you’re in a league with folks who like to project out youngsters with huge arms, note that Lugo has gone as low as the 363rd pick in a draft at the NFBC in March.” Certainly didn’t expect his first half, it would have been bananas to suggest that he would do this, but we were “in” on him. Lugo has been a fantasy star going 11-4, a career best win total, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 127 innings pitched, the second most in baseball. Outhouse to penthouse baby.
Suarez has been awful the last three starts (15 runs in 15.2 starts). Even with the recent bombings Suarez has had an elite season (10-4, 2.76 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 112 punchouts in 114 innings). Cannot imagine the second half looks anything like the first, his ERA is going to be a run higher, his workload pace will slow and the WHIP will rise, but he’s been money given the draft day investment.
Crochet’s been dynamic (6-6, 3.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 35.2 K-rate), but is his arm going to literally fly off his body? He’s already at 107.1 innings pitched, and why that matters is that his current total of innings pitched is higher than his combined total the last four years (6.0, 54.1, 0, 25.0). In this era of arm injury, it’s seems straight up negligent for the White Sox to have ridden him this hard. Can’t see why a contender would pay a big price for him for 2024, can you?
Best Rookie: PAUL SKENES, PIT
Just let these tweets paint the picture.
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Worst Rookie: KYLE HARRISON, SF
This one really isn’t fair to Harrison, but he’s a youngster, who we thought good things about, who has made 16 starts. He’s gone 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP which is completely average, though his 19.8 percent K-rate is well below big league average and four percent below his mark with the Giants last season (his minor league number were routinely in the mid 30’s). Again this isn’t really fair, but he gets dinged for making 16 starts, compared to all those other rookies who bombed and got demoted after four starts. Not fair, but there it is.
Most Fortunate: REYNALDO LOPEZ, ATL
He’s been great but his gap of (-2.36) for his ERA compared to his xERA is the largest number in baseball for a qualifying pitcher (his xERA is 4.24). Somewhat shockingly, that xERA would be a four year high. Surprising, right? He’s also sporting a 86.9 percent left on base which is impossibly high and certain to regress. One would also think that his 6.0 percent HR/FB ratio will rise (career 10.7 percent). He’s up to 95.2 innings this season, just one inning from setting a five year high in his transition back to a starting role.
Least Fortunate: REID DETMERS LAA / JUSTIN STEELE, CHC
Detmer has a massive gap of 2.48 runs between his raw ERA (6.14) and his xERA (3.66), the highest in baseball for a pitcher who has faced 200 batters this season. Detmers also has a 10.0 K/9 and 25.3 K-rate, while his 15.5 K-BB rate is also better than league average. Alas, batters have a .333 BABIP off his with a crazy unfortunate 61.7 percent left on base. That 1.43 HR/9 rate is pretty dumb too.
Steele has made 14 starts with a 2.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with a 4.50 K/BB ratio. Those aren’t just good, but excellent numbers. He’s gone 2-3. He’s won two games folks. Wins stink.
Biggest Miss: LOGAN WEBB, SF
He’s been fine. I hoped that he would be better. He’s not hurt anyone going 7-7 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but all those numbers are worse than I expected with the result being – he’s fine, but not for a guy with SP1 expectations. Fine. That’s something that goes on a tombstone, right? At least he’s racking up innings, third most in baseball, so you never have to worry about him taking the ball.
Biggest Hit: SETH LUGO KC / BRYAN WOO SEA / HUNTER BROWN HOU
For Lugo, see above.
Woo, my Breakout Pitcher of the Year, hasn’t been that. Not really right to list him here either. I will say though, that in nine starts he has a 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a 5.80 K/BB ratio. If he had done that over 18 starts he would be Ronel Blanco (by he way, he was 4th for out of nowhere performers, Blanco).
Brown is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, so how the hell is he a “hit”? Because we talked about him while the struggles where happening, and we kept saying keep the faith. If we remove the first six outings where he posted a 9.78 ERA, Brown has been fantastic. Since the start of May he’s gone 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while throwing nine quality starts in 10 outings. Booyah.
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