In a series of four articles, Ray Flowers will review the first half fantasy baseball performances across the land. He will a series of questions such as – most and least valuable players at each position. There will be four articles in the series, written during the 2024 MLB All-Star Break: Infielders, Outfielders, Starting Pitchers & Relievers.
POSITIONAL VIDEO REVIEW
For my video review of a host of outfielders. and their first half efforts, here you go.
*Players reviewed include: Jurickson Profar, Lane Thomas, Jesse Winker, Heliot Ramos, Byron Buxton, Jackson Chourio, Jo Adell, George Springer, Corbin Carroll, Luis Robert, Tommy Pham, Masataka Yoshida, Sal Frelick, Daulton Varsho, Andy Pages, Jorge Soler, Jake Fraley.
THE DAILY SHOW
Don’t forget about FREE show, Fantasy Sports Daily, M-F, 12pm EST. On the show this morning, here is a list of players we touched on.
You’re really missing out if you don’t tune in to the show either on the website, on YouTube, or at your favorite podcast service.
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1st HALF AWARDS
Positional MVP: AARON JUDGE, NYY
Leads the league in homers (34), RBI (85), OBP (.433), SLG (.679), wOBA (.461), xwOBA (.468) and ISO (.373). He’s also 7th in average (.307) and is fifth in runs scored (73). Overall, the effort is a near carbon copy of his 2022 effort with the bat (.311-62-131-133). Really, the only question at this point is – how many games will he hold up for in 2024?
Positional LVP: RONALD ACUNA ATL / CORBIN CARROLL ARI
It isn’t fair to list Acuna here, so why am I doing it? The universal #1 pick in fantasy baseball, like 99.9 percent of the world was taking him first overall, played just 49 games this season as he season was cut short due to a knee injury. His 150 game pace would have been .250-12-45-110-45. Even if he played all season long, he was looking like a big time disappointment.
Carroll is the real answer here though as the healthy loser.
After a stupendous season last year, one of the best fantasy efforts for a rookie in baseball history, Carroll has fallen flat on his face. Last year Carroll went .285-25-76-116-54. Again, fantabulistic. This year he’s gone .212-5-32-60-18. Is it his shoulder? Everyone says no, that he’s fine physically, but since he injured his wing last season he’s simply stopped driving the baseball. His pull rate is down four percent. His exit velocity is down 2.1 mph. His barrel rate is literally 50 percent of last season (3.8 percent). His hard-hit rat is down five percent (35.9). On fly balls this year he’s slashing .190/.253/.279 compared to last season at .264/.373/.483. He’s been a totally different player. Ugh.
Most Disappointing (non-injury): JULIO RODRIGUEZ SEA / RANDY AROZARENA TB
Julio was a top-5 overall selection – who has failed to live up to that expectation. He went 28/25 as a rookie. He went 32/37 last season. This year he’s on pace to go about 18/34. He also has 35 runs driven in and is ranked 27th at the outfield position. On the plus side, he’s been insanely good to start July (.447/.500/.763 over 11 games).
Randy has been himself the last month, and he’s on pace for a 4th straight 20/20 season. He’s also slashing a horrible .202/.309/.362.
Out of nowhere Performer: JURICKSON PROFAR, SD / BRENTON DOYLE COL
Profar has been around for a decade and all he has ever been is a replacement waiver-wire addition when you had someone injured. This season – he’s been a star going .305-14-59-52-5. He’s never been close to this guy. He has a .870 OPS, compared to .693 the last three years, and that’s not even the craziest part. Look at the batted ball data. From 2021-23, he posted an 86.6 mph EV, 32.2 hard-hit rate and 3.7 percent barrel rate. This year has seen a massive step forward at 90.8, 41.7 and 7.4 percent. He’s likely to hold on to some of that career best .333 BABIP given those numbers, but the mark has also been under .280 each of the last three years. Even if he’s “himself” in the second half, this is going to be his best season.
Doyle has 15 homers – more than Cody Bellinger (9)
Doyle has 42 RBI – more than Julio Rodriguez (35).
Doyle has 55 runs – more than Fernando Tatis (50).
Doyle has 20 steals – more than Jazz Chisholm (18).
Doyle is slashing .276/.343/.471 with a .815 OPS – higher than Teoscar Hernandez (.802).
Not bad for a guy who went .203-10-48-48-22 last season.
Best Rookie: JACKSON MERRILL SD
A shortstop who hadn’t played outfield before, Merrill was stuffed into the outfield and excelled. The 21 year old has gone .278-12-46-40-10 which is an excellent start to his career. He’s currently working on improving a huge hole in his game, which is his effort against lefties (.192/.221/.333). Note that nine of his 10 homers came in just 63 plate appearances from June 12th to the 29th, but given his 2024 expectations the return has been tremendous.
Worst Rookie: VICTOR SCOTT STL (EVAN CARTER, PARKER MEADOWS, JASSON DOMINGUEZ)
Scott had a shot to grab a job with the Cardinals to start the year but he produced five hits in 65 PA. Demoted to Triple-A, he’s hit .209 with 27 steals over 63 games.
Carter, out now with a back issue, hasn’t looked like the burgeoning star we saw last season at any point this year. Over 45 games, Carter has slashed .188/.272/.361 seeing his OPS drop more than .400 points from his 23 game audition of last season.
Meadows, a dark horse 20/20 candidate, was so awful he was demoted after just 32 games. He found his game in the minors after making a swing change, and went .298-8-24-38-19 in 47 games at Triple-A to return to the bigs. He was then injured in his third game back.
Dominquez had his shot at playing time when Stanton went down, but JD was already down with an injury of his own (coming back from surgery on his elbow, he then hurt his oblique). He’s played 23 games this season with six homers and three steals.
Most Fortunate: HELIOT RAMOS, SF
Jung Hoo Lee got hurt.
Michael Conforto got hurt.
LaMonte Wade got hurt.
Heliot Ramos was given a chance to play and… boo-yah.
The former elite level prospect, a first round selection in 2017, Ramos had fallen out of the Giants’ top-30 prospect rankings heading into 2024. He was effective effective at Triple-A (.296-8-21-23 in 30 games) leading to a promotion that has him in the All-Star Game. He’s been insanely good at .298-14-46-29-2 in 60 games with a .888 OPS. The question to consider moving forward is – how much of this is he gonna hold on to in the second half?
Least Fortunate: EDDIE ROSARIO ATL / TAYLOR WARD LAA
Let’s compare some batted ball data for Rosario to his career numbers entering the year.
| Exit V. | Hard-Hit | Barrel | ISO | HR/FB | Pull Rate | |
| 15-23 | 88.1 | 33.7 | 6.7 | .192 | 13.1 | 42.8 |
| 2024 | 90.7 | 42.3 | 5.3 | .135 | 10.0 | 46.6 |
That’s a whole lotta data that seems to suggest, at a minimum, that he would be “himself.” Alas, his wOBA .234 which is eighty-nine points below his career number coming into the season. Come on.
Ward has a league average wOBA of .313, but his xwOBA jumps up to .356 which is basically a level that could garner you consideration for the All-Star Game. In fact, that .356 xwOBA would be better than the .338 mark he posted last season. Also note that he had 14 homers and 47 RBI last season in 97 games while he’s gone 14-44 in 93 games this season.
Biggest Miss: JORDAN WALKER STL / ESTEURY RUIZ OAK / CORBIN CARROLL ARI
It was a long time ago, but Walker had an ADP inside the top-30 outfielders at the NFBC. It’s true. Remember, he was supposed to go 20/20 last year as a rookie. He didn’t, but he was successful for a rookie (.276-16-51-51-7). He was set to go 20/20 this year, right? He’s gone 4/4 in 79 games… fifty-nine of them at Triple-A in what has been a disastrous season.
Ruiz stole 67 bags last season and had a shot to lead the league in steals again this season. However, he started losing playing time late last season, and we talked about that coming into the year. Our worst fears have been realized as he lost playing time, was hurt, got demoted, and we sit here now with him swiping five bases over 65 PAs. Just horrid has been the return. Not sure what the hell the A’s are doing.
Carroll — see above.
Biggest Hit: RILEY GREENE DET
Greene hit 16 homers his first two years over 192 games.
This year… he’s hit 17 in just 96 games.
Greene already has career bests in runs (56) and RBI (50). He’s added a third to his walk rate (12.0 percent). He’s cut his K-rate for a second straight season (25.0 percent). He’s pushed his ISO from .159 up to .232. He’s jacked his launch angle from 6.6 to 11.6 percent. He just needs health. With it, he’s going 30-90-90 this year.
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