In this final instalment of my NFL betting series, we will go deeper into ways to find +EV bets for yourself. But first, a confession.
+EV Ain’t Easy
Loyal readers, I haven’t lied to you but I have misled you. I’ve been talking about +108 coin flips and 25 projected completions when the line is 23.5 as if they are everyday occurrences. The real truth is this – if someone offers you +108 on a coin flip, it’s most likely a weighted coin. If you have Tom Brady projected for 25 completions when the line is 23.5, your projections are most likely wrong. The simple reason is that every bet has two sides. If you’re getting +108 on a coin flip, that means some fool is laying +108 on a coin flip…and bookies are generally not fools. History’s greatest +EV gamblers, from Voltaire to the MIT blackjack team to Hong Kong horse racing syndicates to Billy Walters to Phil Ivey, had one thing in common – they had better information than those on the other (losing) side of their bets. So if you’re going to find your edge, you’re going to have to work for it.
The Wisdom of the Crowd
A common misconception is that sports betting odds are set by the bookmaker. If that were the case, all you’d have to do is be smarter than the bookmaker – difficult, but not impossible. But bookies only set the opening lines (usually by copying from other bookies!) – after that, the invisible hand of the free market takes over. More bettors take the Seahawks than the Packers? The line will move towards the Seahawks and it will keep moving until the action becomes more balanced. The result is a kind of equilibrium where the line reflects not only the bookie’s opinion but also the collective opinion of the entire betting population, a phenomenon known as “the wisdom of the crowd.” And being smarter than the crowd is generally much, much more difficult.
Can I give you enough information in this article to beat the crowd? No…and even if I could, I’d be foolish to give that information away for free – +EV bets by nature tend to self-destruct when you make them; you effectively become part of the crowd. What I can do is plant a few seeds that will hopefully start you on your own journey of discovery.
Bet Early
As I said above, the life cycle of a set of odds is that it’s made initially by a bookmaker and then over time it changes to incorporate the views of the market. The earlier you can get to it, the less “crowded” the wisdom that you’re up against. By the time the game kicks off, the lines have incorporated so much wisdom that even the best gamblers in the world would have a hard time beating them; in economic terms, they’ve become an “efficient market”.
Fade the Public
The crowds are certainly wise, but they may not be perfect. A market that’s full of casual, unsophisticated bettors may exhibit some biases – money coming in for reasons that may not have anything to do with an assessment of the underlying probabilities. Research has suggested that the public tends to overbet money line longshots and point spread favorites. One could easily imagine an excess of bets on teams with a lot of fans like the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers, Steelers and fewer bets on unpopular teams like the Bills and Jaguars. Casual fans looking to make the game more exciting to watch will tend to bet “over” on totals and props. If these biases are real, you may be able to exploit them by taking the opposite of the popular side…so you might want to give a preference to money line favorites, dogs on the point spread, unpopular teams and unders.
Specialize
In your battle against the books, the books have two big advantages – the wisdom of the crowd, and the vig. But you have one advantage that may be even bigger – the power of selection. Books have to offer thousands of bets on any given day – you get to choose whether to bet all, some, one or none of them. They could be smarter than you 99% of the time and you can still win, if you can identify your 1% edge. So devote your time to becoming a leading expert on AFC East defensive schemes, or the effect of atmospheric pressure on field goal success rates, or Division 2 college lacrosse, or whatever. Make a niche for yourself.
Line Shop
Your power of selection applies not only to different bets, but also to different books at which to place them. If you are able to find a book that’s offering +120 on something that’s -105 everywhere else, that’s an opportunity to turn the wisdom of the crowd around and make it work for you instead of against you. In a situation like this, I’ll take that +120 every time without even thinking about what I’m betting on. I’ve placed bets on soccer teams in cities in Spain that I couldn’t find on a map or even pronounce, where I couldn’t name a single player if my life depended on it – just because I had access to a line that was “off-market”. Even if you don’t find examples that are this extreme, shop around when you find a bet you like. Just like clipping coupons at the grocery store, finding that +8.5 point spread instead of settling for +8 will add up to a big difference over the long run.
The Rest Is Up to You
We’ve reached the end of my series of articles. Hopefully by now you have an understanding of what +EV means, how to size your bets for optimal bankroll growth and a few pointers to help you hunt for good bets in the sports betting jungle.
Tweet me with any comments or questions at @PlusEVAnalytics. As always, may your EV be positive and may your variance be favorable!