MLB Weekly Preview: May 30 – June 5

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: Brewers shift to 4 L / 4 R & Cardinals shift to 2 L / 6 R due to Wade Miley’s injury.

NOTES: We have unique advantages this week for our Rays, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Rangers, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Padres, Brewers, Nationals, Marlins, Giants, Rockies, and Cubs hitters. They are the teams with more than six games this week. If your shares of these batters are sparse, no worries. No team plays fewer than six. This is a great week to maximize your offensive lineup, either making up ground in your categories or producing excessive amounts of hitter points. The daily-league grinders can win matchups working their offense alone!

A Few Areas to Target

Cub House
Chicago is playing two doubleheaders this week for a total of nine games! Volume is king, even for Patrick Wisdom (36% rostered in redraft, 82% dynasty), Christopher Morel (3.5%, 36%) and Jonathan Villar (6%, 53%). But please, don’t let me skim over the job Wisdom has been doing at the plate! Over the past two weeks, he has four long flies, eight rib-eye steaks and a stolen base to boot (but don’t expect that often). Scoring nine runs is nice, too. However, it comes with a .200 BA and 12 strikeouts to three walks. I’ll take the good with the bad, especially if Wisdom’s nine games trump my starter’s six (i.e. Matt Chapman). Additionally, Morel is crushing the ball in his big-league debut. Best of all, these nine games take place in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. “C’mon, wind blowing out,” says Ian Happ!

The Cubs’ two opponents – Cardinals and Brewers – “only” play eight games this week… boo who. Cards will see five right-handed starters, while MIL may see up to five left-handed starters. Luis Urías and Andrew McCutchen make for fine starts this week, and Cutch has been great against lefties. Don’t despair, Rowdy Tellez owners. His 33 (and counting) RBI are just fine. He’s actually hit for a better average over his young(?) career, albeit for less power. 

Twin Tigers
Detroit and Minnesota play eight games this week with their shared doubleheader on 5/31 along with their five-game series. Enjoy the volume for bats like Javier Báez, Spencer Torkelson and Jonathan Schoop. Both teams are scheduled to face six righties and two lefties, so maybe Robbie Grossman gets going. Confidently speaking, I know one Twin bat who will be foaming at the mouth and doing his shake, and that’s Luis Arraez! Max Kepler will have the platoon advantage too, but we need to see his health status before pulling the trigger (see Injured List Report). Lastly, the Twins hit the road all week, so peep out below the positive shift in park factors for Comerica Park and Rogers Centre.

“Roger Dodger”
This phrase, which stems from World War II, serves as a reminder of all the brave men and women who have lost their lives defending our great country. Yes, it is great. I don’t give a fuck how much gas is. So, while we are stuffing our faces with lips and assholes this Memorial Day weekend, take a moment to honor our military. We can also honor our Dodger hitters, who are home at Chavez Ravine for seven games (PIT – 3, NYM – 4). Here is a list of their probable opposing starters, which offer some favorable matchups and targeting opportunities.

• Zach Thompson (RH)
• Mitch Keller (RH; not confirmed)
• José Quintana (LH)
• Taijuan Walker (RH)
• Chris Bassitt (RH)
• David Peterson (LH)
• Trevor Williams (RH; not confirmed)

I mean, it could be favorable (2 L / 5 R). ?

Home Cooking at Mile High
Rockies are at Coors all week for seven games!!! Fire up C.J. Cron, Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon, who have all been hot the past two weeks and will enjoy the nice boon. And while KB is out again, Yonathan Daza (1.5% rostered in redraft, 15% dynasty) should see more ABs. He’s already made good use of his time, posting a slash line of .333/.417/.412 over the last 14 days. But don’t overlook their dinner guests, the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves. For Miami, the best widely available streaming option is Jesus Aguilar (38.5%, 66%). And for Hotlanta, why not scoop up Michael Harris (<1%, 45%) or William Contreras (18.5%, 62%)??? I am interested in both players for all my 12-team and up leagues.

O’ Canada
Blue Jays are back home for six games (CHW – 3, MIN – 3). Check your White Sox and Twins hitters for restricted list activity! We may already know the status of one White Sox bat (see Injured List Report). 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Walker Buehler³ (PIT, NYM)
2. Kevin Gausman⁹ (CHW, MIN)
3. Frankie Montas¹¹ (HOU, BOS)
4. Julio Urías¹³ (PIT, NYM) ← Picks up second start with LAD opting to keep staff all on normal rest (five-man).
5. Logan Webb²⁰ (@PHI, @MIA)
6. Pablo López²³ (@COL, SF)
7. Zac Gallen²⁷ (ATL, @PIT)
8. Luis Castillo³³ (@BOS, WSH)
9. Framber Valdez³⁶ (@OAK, @KC)
10. Michael Kopech⁴² (@TOR, @TB) ← Kopech last pitched on 5/22, but apparently, he will need to wait one more day as the CHW maximizes his “load management.” He will pitch on 6/1 for his lone start and nine days rest, while Lucas Giolito¹⁰ will pitch on 5/31 and pick up another start @TB.
11. Eric Lauer⁴⁷ (@CHC, SD)
12. Drew Rasmussen⁵⁰ (@TEX, CHW)
13. Jordan Montgomery⁵¹ (LAA, DET)

Other Options: Charlie Morton⁵³ (@ARI, @COL)*, Kyle Gibson⁶⁶ (SF, LAA), Paul Blackburn⁶⁷ (HOU, BOS)*, Adam Wainwright⁶⁸ (SD, @CHC)

*Father Time is a sum a bitch, and Morton is finding out the hard way this season. You can roll with him in H2H point matchups where the number of starts matters, but I’d be reluctant to start in roto leagues with these two matchups. This week will make or break the legitimacy of Blackburn. 

Danger Zone: Justin Steele^NR & Wade Miley^IL Matt Swarmer^NR (MIL, STL), Dylan Bundy⁷⁴ (@DET, @TOR)*, Germán Márquez⁸⁹ (MIA, ATL), Tyler Wells¹⁰⁶ (@BOS, CLE), Zach Plesac¹¹³ (KC, @BAL), Ryan Yarbrough¹²¹ (@TEX, CHW), Erick Fedde¹⁴⁷ (@NYM, @CIN), David Peterson^NR & Trevor Williams^NR (WSH, @LAD), Martín Pérez^NR & Glenn Otto^NR (TB, SEA), Beau Brieske^NR & Rony García^NR (MIN, @NYY), Jonathan Heasley^NR (@CLE, HOU), Zach Thompson^NR (@LAD, ARI), Cody Poteet^NR (@COL, SF)^IL, Spencer Strider^NR (@ARI, @COL)

UPDATE: Tucker Davidson was sent down to Triple-A Gwinnett on 5/29, and Strider will enter the rotation on 5/30, netting a two-start week potentially (and also pushing Kyle Wright’s second start to next week). He’s electric but also not built up for a starter’s workload. In time, he can rise up the ranks! Also, Wade Miley (left shoulder strain) hits the IL on 5/29 (retro 5/26). The team calls up Matt Swarmer to take Miley’s spot in the rotation. (5/31) Steele will pitch on normal rest, while Hendricks gets two extra days of rest. (6/1) With PPD on 5/31, Marquez loses second start. Ryan Feltner lines up to assume his second start on five days’ rest. (6/2) Drew Smyly (15-day IL) will miss upwards of a month due to a right oblique strain.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 30 – JUNE 5

Pitching Spotlight

Aaron Ashby finds himself back in the high life again, or at least, back in the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation. Freddy Peralta’s right shoulder injury opens the door for Ashby to transfer from swingman to a regular member as Peralta will miss “significant” time, according to manager Craig Counsell. In his first start since the promotion, the Ashby family had a special moment in the city where his uncle, Andy Ashby, made his career. Andy’s nephew had quite a day against the Padres on 5/25, pitching 5.2 innings and giving up one unearned run. While he did have some activity on the base paths – four singles and three walks – he was able to keep pace with Yu Darvish and keep his team in a game they would eventually win. Ashby matched his career-high for innings and set a career-high with 91 pitches.

The elder Ashby was in attendance along with 1976 National League Cy Young Award winner Randy Jones, Tony Gwynn Jr. and the rest of the Ashby rooting section. Uncle Andy must be so proud of his nephew, who is MLB’s No. 47 ranked prospect as well as the Brewers’ No. 1. Here the two are together from a few years back. Uncle Andy has always supported his nephew.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Aaron Ashby (@aaronashbyy)

If Ashby can lower the free passes (13.5% BB rate) and become more efficient with his pitches, there’s a lot to like here (10.32 K/9, 26.4% K rate, 32.9% CSW, 11.8% swinging-strike rate, 65.9% GB rate, 21.6% FB rate). You can pick this dude up and have some lasting power for a while. We may discuss him again later in this article… there’s no telling ?

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, SD, MIN, LAD, CHC, MIL (again)?

Padres will rotate MacKenzie Gore based on the schedule as a way to manage the young pitcher’s innings on top of keeping others fresh. Gore threw 101 innings between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio in 2019 but has tossed 84.1 innings since 2020, including 40 innings already this year as of 5/27 (five for Triple-A El Paso). The Friars don’t have an off day until 6/9 (mired in a 31-game-in-31-day stretch, 5/27-6/26), so I expect both Gore and Nick Martinez will be utilized for this gauntlet of games.

Devin Smeltzer was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul to take the place of Joe Ryan (CVD-IL, see Injured Report below). We thought he was out of options, but… “Players typically have three option years, but those who have accrued less than five full seasons (including both the Majors and Minors) are eligible for a fourth if their three options have been exhausted already.” Thanks to Ray for looking into the official rule. And thank goodness for the Twinkies, as Smeltzer more than filled in admirably, tossing seven shutout innings on two hits, one walk and six punchouts. It was the Royals, but it was also Smeltzer’s second time facing them in as many starts. That advantage usually goes to the hitter. 

Manager Rocco Baldelli will find a way to keep him in the rotation based on how well he’s pitched so far. Although not officially decided yet, MIN could go back to a six-man when Ryan is good to go. Baldelli said he intended to keep with a six-man rotation as long as possible, aka till pitchers cut down from 14. However, we learned this week that clubs will now be permitted to carry 14 pitchers until June 19. Despite MLB making up the rules as they go, the Twins can benefit by keeping guys rested despite their current arduous schedule. I see them going six-man this week (regardless of Ryan’s status) with the doubleheader on 5/31.

Dodgers are in a stretch of 31 games in 30 days (5/7-6-5). The team was considering a six-man rotation for this tough stretch before Clayton Kershaw^IL landed on the injured list. He is progressing towards throwing a bullpen session, last throwing on flat ground from 90 feet. Ryan Pepiot (LAD No. 5 prospect, made a spot start on 5/27), Michael Grove (No. 11), and Andre Jackson (No. 16) are all options to be called up if a sixth man is needed. 

And with Andrew Heaney^IL still on the mend, Mitch White has been filling in the rotation. He last threw four innings (61 pitches / 33 strikes) on 5/26, giving up only two hits with two walks and two strikeouts. In 2021, White made four starts in his 21 game appearances (46.2 IP), posting a 3.66 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 3.83 FIP and a 24.9% strikeout rate to 8.6% walk rate. The good news is Heaney could face live hitters soon after last throwing in a sim game for an estimate of three innings. No timetable yet but making encouraging progress.

Once Kershaw & Heaney are whole, I can see LAD rolling their rotation with Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, Kersh, Tony Gonsolin, Heaney and Tyler Anderson (starter or swingman). Anderson has been en fuego, albeit against a soft schedule. The lone fierce offense (Phillies) put up seven earned in six innings of work. However, Anderson’s changeup has been unhittable. He currently leads the league with a 51% chase rate on the pitch (min. 150 changeups thrown; #2 – Logan Webb 50.8%, #3 – Carlos Carrasco 49.5%).

Finally, Keegan Thompson enters the Cubbies rotation due to Chicago playing the two aforementioned doubleheaders. The team will have two off days next week, so they should return to a standard five-man rotation.

As of the moment, I have Small slotted in for the doubleheader on 5/30. For more, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Manny Machado – DTD, Tennis Elbow
Machado was not in the starting lineup on 5/28 against the Padres because of what manager Bob Melvin called “tennis elbow.” Melvin said Machado could play through it if necessary, but it wasn’t worth the risk of it getting worse. Comforting to hear it’s not a huge issue as of now. Manny is in the midst of a phenomenal fantasy season: .357/.438/.583, 60 H, 21 XBH, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB & 35 R. Certainly, this is first-round production at a second-round cost. We also were given some breaking news for Machado’s teammate, Mike Clevinger (right triceps strain)! He should be ready to go around the time his 15-day injury list stint is up, which would line him up to start in one of San Diego’s games against the Brewers in Milwaukee this week (6/4-5).

Brandon Woodruff – DTD, Right Ankle Discomfort
Woodruff had to leave his start against the Cardinals in St. Louis on 5/27 due to an ankle issue. Although Woodruff’s swelling has decreased and he was able to comfortably walk around the clubhouse the following day, manager Craig Counsell said the likelihood of the right-hander making his next start is “in doubt” and more tests are needed. Woodruff was far more optimistic following the outing.

UPDATE:

Brandon Nimmo – DTD, Sore Wrist
Nimmo did not play over the weekend due to soreness in his wrist and receiving a cortisone injection on 5/28. However, he intends to return to the lineup at the beginning of the week. Continue to monitor. 

Anthony Rendon – 10-day IL, Right Wrist Inflammation
Rendon was placed on the 10-day injured list this past weekend due to right wrist soreness. He experienced the soreness on 5/26 and later underwent an MRI that revealed some inflammation. He said he’ll have to wait for the inflammation to subside before knowing what a timetable for his return to the lineup may look like.

Max Muncy – 10-day IL, Left Elbow Inflammation (Retro 5/26)
Muncy hits the injured list with inflammation in his left elbow. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Muncy has been dealing with some left elbow discomfort after banging against the wall in the series opener against the Nationals. Muncy suffered a torn UCL in his left elbow last season, so extra caution will be practiced here. Gavin Lux should see more ABs while Muncy is out.

Hyun Jin Ryu – DTD, Left Elbow Tightness
Ryu, who had to come out of his start against the Angels on Thursday due to left elbow tightness, said he is “feeling good” and on track to make his next scheduled start.

Stephen Strasburg Update…
Strasburg (thoracic outlet recovery) is on track to make his second rehab start with Single-A Fredericksburg on 5/29. The goal is for the veteran right-hander to throw 60-70 pitches over four or five innings. Afterward, the plan is for Strasburg to join the Nationals at Citi Field for their series against the Mets and throw a bullpen session. He’ll reportedly need three rehab starts before he can pitch for the Nats. If all goes well, the target return date is early-to-mid June (specifically, 6/8 is the earliest return date). 

Yoán Moncada – DTD, Left Quad Soreness
Moncada was out of the lineup again on 5/28. He hasn’t played since 5/25, but general manager Rick Hahn keeps saying he doesn’t think the issue will cost Moncada a trip to the injured list. Ok…

Max Kepler – DTD, Right Leg Tightness
Kepler was removed in the fourth inning on 5/28 due to tightness in his right leg (get baggier pants homie!). He had been playing through the issue, but the discomfort has risen. He will get an MRI before any further decisions are made regarding treatment and a timetable for return. Teammate Gary Sánchez (DTD, Heat-Related Illness) also left the game. He was reportedly dehydrated and light-headed. 

UPDATE:

Daulton Varsho – DTD, Right Shoulder Soreness
The D’backs are playing an evil game of Twister with us fantasy owners. After his shoulder caused an early exit on 5/27, Varsho was deemed fit to play the following afternoon, albeit as the DH. However, two hours before game time, Varsho was a late scratch without any reason given. One would assume the shoulder flared up again but never can tell with health and safety protocols in play. 

The COVID List

Joe Ryan (5/25) – Depending on the nature of Ryan’s designation, he can potentially rejoin Minnesota’s rotation after missing one turn. Awaiting more info.

Luis Robert (5/24) – He is feeling better and targeting a return for the weekend against Tampa Bay. Do you mean, he won’t be traveling to Canada to face the Blue Jays as originally (and foolishly) premised? ?‍♂️ The good news to take from here is no rehab assignment should be necessary.

UPDATE: Whelp, mud in my face, but mud I’m grateful to receive as someone who has mad shares of Robert!

Josh Donaldson – He was transferred from the CVD-IL to the 10-day IL for right shoulder inflammation (retro to 5/24). Donaldson is feeling better and doing light baseball activities.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Aaron Ashby⁸³, LH MIL (@CHC, SD; 10.6% rostered in redraft, 84% dynasty); George Kirby¹⁴⁹, RH SEA (@BAL, @TEX; 21%, 77%) – I’ve already said my piece on Ashby, so I’ll simply move right onto Kirby, especially if the prior is already rostered in your league. It hasn’t been all rainbows & sunshine for George. After all, he’s given up nine earned runs over the last two games, the second disappointingly against the light-hitting A’s. This has caused Kirby to be dropped in 13.6% of redraft leagues and roughly 3% in dynasty. But that is when we pounce! Owners may not have looked ahead at two pretty good matchups. Baltimore has the ninth-worst ISO vs. RHP (.133); Texas is the fifth-worst (.121). The O’s also have the seventh-lowest wOBA vs. RHP (.298). And again, not to be outdone, the Rangers’ .279 is the fourth-lowest. 

I previously wrote about Kirby in this space. Here is the main snippet ICYMI:

No pitching prospect in the minors throws more strikes than Kirby. He peppers the zone with velocity (triple-digit heater that averages 95-97mph, depending on who you reference) along with a solid repertoire of secondary pitches. His fourseam fastball generates whiffs, and his 86mph slider feeds off the velocity with a good amount of two-plane movement from the film I saw. A changeup and curveball round out his arsenal, although the pitch frequencies are far less than the fastball and slider. From what I saw though, both have potential, especially the change. His walk rate has been no higher than 6.4%, and he has 20 free passes in 115.1 innings across all levels for his career. He misses bats too with regularity (11.68 K/9 in 2022). 

Honorable Mentions: Rich Hill¹¹⁷, LH BOS (BAL, @OAK; 4%, 35%), Jakob Junis^NR, RH SF (@PHI, @MIA; 7.7%, 31%)

Solo Start: Matthew Liberatore⁹⁶, LH STL (@CHC; 5.6%, 51%), Devin Smeltzer^NR, LH MIN (@DET ONLY; 2.5%, 14%) – I would start Liberatore in all formats (don’t forget to check the winds though!). Smeltzer is a two-start pitcher this week, but I have no interest in playing him @TOR (similar to Bundy above). But if your format allows it, I like the Detroit start as much as I dislike the Toronto contest.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, June 5, 2022
*Not Confirmed