MLB Weekly Preview: May 23 – 29

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: With Gore now going on 5/22 & Martinez pitching on 5/23, MIL is now 2 L / 5 R. PIT could also change to 3/3 depending on if Gore stays in rotation. (5/23) With Skubal being pushed to 5/26 vs. CLE, MIN shifts to 1/6* and CLE to 2-5.

NOTES: Our hitting schedules are beginning to calm down as games are being made up from the lockout. We see a standard array of seven- and six-game weeks. Fourteen teams play seven games this week, and 14 teams play six. The other two teams – White Sox & Marlins – are the “proud” recipients of a breather to their schedule with five games only. The Pale Hose host a two-game Windy City Showdown vs. the enemy Cubbies, so some heat will go up and down their lineup. Furthermore, they crush left-handing pitching and are scheduled to face three lefties. Stick with your righty stars there!

There is a lone anomaly to consider, however. Orioles play seven games in six days with a 5/28 doubleheader in Boston and a day off between series. Red Sox also play seven in six but with no off-day between series. But who wants this offense to lose their mojo right now? Baltimore will provide the pitching machines for Trevor Story to launch more home runs. And with the BoSox scheduled to face six right-handed starters, Franchy Cordero (<1% rostered in redraft, 6% dynasty) is an interesting stream for 15-team leagues. The two teams will complete their five-game series on 5/30 (next period).

A Few Areas to Target

Hail to the Chief
Nats are one of the benefactors who play seven games this week, and they will all go down at Nationals Park. With the weather warming up on the East Coast, I expect the ballpark to play very hitter-friendly. They invite the Dodgers for three before welcoming the Colorado Rockies in for four. Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz will look to take advantage of a slumping Germán Márquez. However, they will need to get through Walker Buehler and Julio Urías to do it. Also, visiting Dodger and Rockies hitters will look to feast on the Nats’ staff. Play the over! In fact, LA is scheduled to face Joan Adon, Josiah Gray and Erick Fedde while in Washington before heading out to the desert to see Humberto Castellanos, Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly & Zach Davies. ?

Land of the Brave
Wow, somebody’s ready for Memorial Day weekend! A friendly reminder for us all… while we party with friends and loved ones, be sure to take a moment (or several) to consider what those brave men and women in the military have sacrificed for our freedoms. One of those freedoms is to play your Braves hitters at will! They are at home for seven (PHI – 4, MIA – 3) & scheduled to face six right-handed starters. So giddy up with Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies and consider a replacement for Adam Duvall and Dansby Swanson.

Rummage the Dumpster Fire
I’ll continue to go back to the Reds for “blue-light specials.” Do you young kids reading this article even know what that is? It’s a good week to do so again, with Cincy playing seven games (CHC – 4, SF – 3) at Great American Small Park. I’m honing in on Tommy Pham (44%, 81%) and Brandon Drury (57%, 71%), who are scheduled to face four left-handed starters and the latter will be well-rested. Here is who they’re scheduled to face:

• Drew Smyly
• Marcus Stroman
• Kyle Hendricks
• Justin Steele
• Carlos Rodón
• Alex Wood
• Alex Cobb

Cheers to a Tyler Stephenson rager!

Used Caddy For Sale
New York Yankees could face up to four left-handed starters this week, including Ryan Yarbrough, who may once again follow fellow lefty Jalen Beeks or possibly J.P. Feyereisen (RH). Good week for DJ LeMahieu to turn things around (already started on 5/21 with a grand salami), for Josh Donaldson to keep the good times rolling, and for Judge (.364/.481/.818 last seven days) & Stanton (.391/.500/.739 last seven days) to continue going apeshit on the baseball. ::Insert your best car salesman voice:: But, may I interest you in a little Isiah Kiner-Falefa (13.5% rostered in redraft, 65% dynasty)? IKF has hit righties slightly better throughout his career (in 568 more at-bats), but his ISO and wOBA are higher vs. lefties.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole¹ (BAL, @TB)
2. Corbin Burnes² (@SD, @STL) ← Picks up second start with Freddy Peralta injury.
3. Walker Buehler³ (@WSH, @ARI) ← Pushed to 5/30 for extra day’s rest
4. Zack Wheeler⁶ (@ATL, @NYM)
5. Max Fried¹³ (PHI, MIA)
6. Dylan Cease²⁰ (BOS, CHC) ← Picks up second start with Michael Kopech getting rest this week (proj. for 5/31 @TOR)
7. Shane McClanahan²¹ (MIA, NYY)
8. Pablo López²⁴ (@TB, @ATL) ← MIA could cut down to four starters with their five-game week (skipping Cody Poteet). If so, López would start twice. Poteet will start 5/25 on three days’ rest.
9. Chris Bassitt²⁷ (@SF, PHI)
10. Tyler Mahle²⁹ (CHC, SF)
11. Luis Garcia³⁴ (CLE, @SEA)
12. Marcus Stroman³⁹ (@CIN, @CHW) ← Stro picks up a second start as CHC shuffles their rotation for next week’s two doubleheaders (total of nine games)! Good idea to utilize the rubber arms of Miley & Smyly.
13. José Berríos⁴⁰ (@STL, @LAA)
14. Sonny Gray⁴⁶ (DET, KC)! ← Picks up a second start with MIN using five-man this week (plus with Joe Ryan now on CVD-IL).
15. Blake Snell⁵⁵ (MIL, PIT) ← With Gore now going on 5/22, Clevinger will pitch on 5/23 and Snell on 5/24, nullifying second start.
16. Alex Cobb⁵⁶ (NYM, @CIN)

Other Options: Miles Mikolas⁶⁰ (TOR, MIL), Triston McKenzie⁶⁴ (@HOU, @DET), Kyle Gibson⁶⁷ (@ATL, @NYM), Josiah Gray⁷³ (LAD, COL)*, Zack Greinke⁷⁶ (@ARI, @MIN)*, Marco Gonzales⁷⁹ (OAK, HOU), Tyler Anderson⁸⁷ (@WSH, @ARI)

*Don’t blame ya if you wanna skip Josiah’s first start in daily leagues or altogether for weekly locks, but I like to pick on “Road Rockies.” COL will be traveling from Pittsburgh to Washington, however, so less of an effect. Greinke faces a former team – that’s not hard! UPDATE: Bailey Falter will make a spot start on 5/27, pushing back rest of rotation for extra rest. Gibson will shift to next week (5/30, SF).

Danger Zone: Zach Plesac¹¹³ (@HOU, @DET), Adrian Houser¹¹⁶ (@SD, @STL), Zach Logue^NR (@SEA, TEX)*, JT Brubaker^NR (COL, @SD), Jordan Lyles^NR (@NYY, @BOS), Chris Archer^NR (DET, KC), Beau Brieske^NR (@MIN, CLE), Zach Davies^NR (KC, LAD), Tucker Davidson^NR (PHI, MIA), David Peterson^NR (@SF, PHI)*, Vladimir Gutierrez^NR (CHC, SF), Bruce Zimmermann^NR (@NYY, @BOS), Roansy Contreras^NR (COL, @SD)

*Not confirmed as of this writing, but Logue was recalled on 5/20 with Daulton Jefferies (thoracic outlet syndrome) going on the 15-day injured list. Logue should take Jefferies’ spot in the rotation, and if he does, I may feel dangerous! Also not confirmed is when (not if) Peterson will be called up. I expect him to be with the big club for the series opener in San Fran on 5/23 (excellent decision not calling him to Coors this past weekend!). Peterson would have been a recommended stream if not for non-favorable matchups (still better than Coors hehe). UPDATE: CBass will pitch on 5/29 on normal rest.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 23 – 29

UPDATE (5/22) – Padres Projected Pitching Schedule
Martinez v MIL (5/23; for Mike Clevinger^IL)
Snell v MIL (5/24)
Darvish v MIL (5/25)
Manaea v PIT (5/27 & delicious)
Musgrove v PIT (5/28, ditto)
Gore v PIT (5/29)

Also, Tarik Skubal’s health checks out fine, but he is scheduled to face CLE on 5/26. Steven Matz’ health does not… he hits the 15-day IL and Matthew Liberatore will take his place vs. MIL.

Pitching Spotlight

Nasty Nestor is one of the best stories in baseball at this early stage of the season. Nestor Cortes, who is slowly entering Yankee folklore, ranks sixth in all of baseball with a 1.80 ERA (includes 5/21 result). His last two starts have come against the sputtering ChiSox, but any time you face a team twice in a row, professional hitters will have the advantage. And to be fair, his second stanza was not as crisp as his first. However, it was only a solo cutter that didn’t get in enough on José Abreu that blemished his day. Abreu deposited it in the cheap seats of Yankee Stadium for a three-run homer. Otherwise, he only gave up five other hits on the day, walking none, striking out seven, and earning his third win on the season. 

Getting back to the first matchup against Chicago, Nasty Nestor went eight large in another gem for the Yankees (8 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K, W). The lone run came on a solo shot, so I guess he’s good for one home run allowed per game. But hey, even the elites in this league are prone to a long ball when you regularly challenge hitters. “Even in the bullpen [before the game], I felt like my fastball and cutter were there,” Cortes said. “From the first pitch, I felt pretty good.” Manager Aaron Boone described his performance as “in complete control… quick and just really sharp.” 

I’ve been tracking Cortes since he made his return to the Yankees in 2021. His underlining metrics have stayed below his on-the-field results with regularity, which made me stream him last season and draft him late this season. Before the second game against Chicago, the Nasty One had pitched 133 innings since the beginning of 2021 to the tune of a 2.44 ERA, the lowest in the AL and third-lowest in MLB during this timeframe. Cortes is and should continue to be “one of the best pitchers in the game” with his xERA of 2.19, 2.44 FIP and 32.5% K rate.

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, MIL, SD, MIN, LAD*, CHW*

There had been some concern with Shohei Ohtani’s velocity around Angel’s top brass. Against Tampa Bay on 5/11, his fastball topped out at just 93.3 mph in the sixth inning before he departed the contest, and the average on the day was 96 mph. For reference, his season average is 97.2 mph. However, Ohtani put to rest any concerns in his last start against the Rangers. He was popping the catcher’s mitt with his four-seam fastball at an average of 98.6 mph, which is a career-high, and his highest velo on the day was clocked at 100.8 mph. Yeah, he good. “I didn’t really change much,” Ohtani said. “But maybe my arm’s just getting used to all the stress.”

Milwaukee will rotate between a five- and six-man rotation based on schedule needs. Aaron Ashby will be utilized on and off as a multi-inning guy and starter when the team does not have an off day. This will consistently keep the rotation at an extra day of rest. This week Ashby is likely to return to the rotation on 5/25. Beginning 5/20 and stretching to 6/5, the Brew Crew will play 18 games in 17 days without an off-day. So, it may be more than one turn. UPDATE: Ashby will definitely be utilized this week as a starter with the Freddy Peralta injury (see IL report below). Brewers will rock five pitchers.

Remember what I just wrote about Milwaukee? Well, just sub MacKenzie Gore for Ashby. Seriously though, Padres will rotate Gore based on the schedule as a way to manage the young pitcher’s innings on top of keeping others fresh. Gore threw 101 innings between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio in 2019 but has tossed 84.1 innings since 2020, including 34 innings already this year as of 5/21 (five for Triple-A El Paso). With Mike Clevinger’s triceps strain landing him on the IL once again, Gore should stay in the rotation this week when they take on Pittsburgh. And beginning with that series against the Pirates, San Diego will play 31 games in 31 days (5/27-6/26). Surely, both Gore and Nick Martinez will be utilized for that gauntlet of games.

On the horizon…

Dodgers are in a stretch of 31 games in 30 days (5/7-6-5). The team was considering a six-man rotation for this tough stretch before Clayton Kershaw^IL landed on the injured list. He is probably “a couple weeks away” from throwing a bullpen session. J.P. Hoornstra of The Orange County Register lists some options for the team to continue with this plan. Ryan Pepiot (LAD No. 5 prospect), Michael Grove (No. 11), and Andre Jackson (No. 16) are all options to be called up if a sixth man is needed. And with Andrew Heaney^IL still on the mend, I expect to see tandem games with recently activated David Price and Mitch White. In 2021, White made four starts in his 21 game appearances (46.2 IP), posting a 3.66 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 3.83 FIP and a 24.9% strikeout rate to 8.6% walk rate. 

With Johnny Cueto in the mix and Lance Lynn facing live hitters (target return: early June), it sure seems like the White Sox are considering a six-man. Lynn will undoubtedly take Vince Velasquez’ spot, so it will depend on how the team handles Michael Kopech’s workload.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Taylor Ward – DTD, Head/Arm/Shoulder/Kitchen Sink
Ward took a brutal collision when he ran into the right-field wall upon making a running catch at the end of the game on 5/20. Manager Joe Maddon said it looked like Ward hit his head and shoulder against the wall. The outfielder, who leads MLB in batting average and OPS, thankfully cleared concussion protocol after the game. He is dealing with a stinger in his arm, however, and he sat on 5/21. No word as to when he will be back in the lineup, but it shouldn’t be too long. Worst case, he sits till 5/24 for max rest/healing.

Yoan Moncada – DTD, Leg
Moncada was a late scratch on 5/21 against the Yankees due to a leg injury, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. It is not believed to be a major injury. Van Schouwen also tweets, “Expectation is that Moncada plays tomorrow (5/22). Soreness in the right leg, getting treatment today.” Apparently, Moncada started feeling discomfort a few days ago but was gritting it out. Appears to be a last-minute maintenance day. UPDATE: Moncada pinch-hit in the top of the eighth and stayed in the game to play the field on 5/21.

Tarik Skubal – DTD, Left Leg Contusion
Scary moment for Skubal when he had a 100.4 mph comebacker hit off his left shin on 5/20. He was tossing another stellar game but had to come out of the game after limping off the field. For how far the ball careened, I’m shocked his leg wasn’t broken. Tests show just a contusion, but of course, more will come throughout the weekend. Big relief, but we will need to wait for the swelling to come down before we get a concrete answer for his start in Minnesota. The good news continues to roll in for a decimated rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez (DTD, Left Side Soreness) had his MRI come back clean, showing no damage to his oblique (unlike Max Scherzer, whaw!). While still listed as DTD, wasting valuable retro time, ERod is still likely to go on the 15-day IL.

Brandon Belt – 10-day IL, Left Leg Contusion
Belt was scratched with right knee discomfort a day after he had the long-troublesome joint drained. Belt said he was feeling better on 5/21, but manager Gabe Kapler made the decision to scratch him 30 minutes before first pitch (thanks, Gabe!). It was his second straight miss and no word as to when he shall return. Wilmer Flores will see more ABs in his stead.

Frankie Montas – DTD, Right-Hand Injury
Montas only lasted 1.2 IP on 5/21 due to getting his right hand clipped on a line drive. The good news is there is no structural damage and X-rays were negative. Oakland is hopeful he will be able to make his next scheduled start, but we should continue to monitor the situation.

Mike Clevinger – 15-day IL, Right Triceps Strain
Clevinger hits the 15-day IL on 5/22 with a right triceps strain. He had made just three starts this season after working his way back from 2020 Tommy John surgery. No Bueno!

Freddy Peralta – 15-day IL (soon to be), Shoulder

Welcome Back, Bryce! Finally!!!

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ James Kaprielian⁸⁸, RH OAK (@SEA, TEX; 3% rostered in redraft, 51% dynasty) – Since his first outing after returning from the IL, he’s looked like the pitcher who established himself in 2021. He’s had three straight starts of at least five innings and two or fewer runs allowed, including 14 strikeouts in 16 IP. The underlying metrics do not look good due to the short first outing where he gave up four earned runs in two innings of work – 4.92 xERA, 4.52 xFIP, 4.70 SIERA. However, his velocity has increased a twitch on the four-seam fastball (average 93.5 mph) and much more on his biting slider (avg. 87.3 mph in 2022; 85.3 in 2021).

Kap has also increased his usage of the slider from 17.4% in 2021 to 29.7% in 2022. It is generating a good amount of swings and misses with a 39.7% Whiff rate, and its Put Away percentage stands at 23.5%. He’ll take the pitch on the road to T-Mobile Park, which is a great pitcher’s park, and face a Seattle team who’s trying to find their identity offensively and has a poor bottom of the order. Kap’s home digs is pretty good, too (up to the minute park factors: 0.878 runs, 0.819 home runs). Furthermore, the A’s will welcome the Rangers, who have struck out 157 times in May, good for a 25.7% K rate (fifth-worst in this sample). Pretty solid matchups!

Honorable Mentions: Nick Pivetta⁸⁹, RH BOS (@CHW, BAL; 29.5%, 59%), Kyle Freeland^NR, LH COL (@PIT, @WSH; 3%, 36%), Dane Dunning^NR, RH TEX (@LAA, @OAK; 8.5%, 67%) – Coming off a complete game against the Astros (2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K), Pivetta seems to be an obvious streamer for Week 8. But Cinderella’s stagecoach can turn back into a pumpkin at any time (4.82 xERA, .265 BABIP – .311 career BABIP, .288 in 2021). However, I’ve learned when Pivetta is right, you ride him till he’s not. He catches a White Sox team not firing on all cylinders, and along with the O’s, he has the means to keep the good times rolling. As for Freeland, he’s a solid starting option away from Coors Field. The matchups can’t get much better than the Pirates & Nationals, which makes Kyle a sneaky, sneaky stream. 

I’ll throw in a third HM this week for an old friend, Dane Dunning. A former top prospect for WSH and CHW (drafted 29^th overall in 2016), he has his ass in gear over the last five starts: 3.19 ERA, 29 K in 31 IP. The first four starts (one of which came against LAA) were rough. Lately, however, Dunning is showing his draft pedigree and finding his stardom. If you can stomach the Angels, the matchup against Oakland screams, “Play Me!”

Solo Start: With so many two-steppers to choose from, we’ll save identifying good solo starts for the Daily Pitching Matchup section.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, May 29, 2022
*Not Confirmed