In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
UPDATE (5/8): COL goes to 3 L / 3 R (no *) with Carlos Rodón being pushed to 5/9 for extra rest and to fill 5/10’s BP Game. TEX goes to 2* L / 5 R with NYY opting to pitch Nestor Cortes on 5/9. Also, CHW goes to 2 L / 5 R as a result of the move.
NOTES: This week’s grid utilizes all the colors of the freakin’ rainbow. Some teams play some weird schedules (highlighted below), and I honestly have PTSD flashbacks just thinking about the week playing out. If you played fantasy baseball in 2020, you know exactly what I’m talking about. But unlike the COVID truncated season, at least we have pitchers who can go deep in… oh wait, FML. The game breakdown grid, along with other areas of the article, reflects the ramifications of all the PPDs we saw over the weekend. This week will be complex and a challenge, for all of the fantasy managers out there as well as for me to keep up with this article, but that’s why we do it, right?
All told, we have 10 teams who play seven games, 15 teams who play six games, and three teams who play five games: BOS, TOR, ATL. Braves hitters especially suffer from an overwhelmingly rough schedule of opposing starting pitchers. Start your studs from these teams if you have no other alternatives, but if you have value on that bench, this is a good time to use it! “But wait, Pov… that’s only 28 teams,” you say. I swear, I didn’t lose my mind putting together this article, but I came close, though, several times. The two remaining teams have a special week and are discussed below…
A Few Areas to Target
A Streak of Tigers
Detroit is one of this week’s recipients of bonus baseball with all eight games going down at Comerica Park. However, due to more weird, lockout-induced anomalies with the schedule, the Tigers will be the road team for Game 1 of the doubleheader on 5/10 with Oakland (notated with * in the grid). Overall, the two teams will play five games in four days before Detroit welcomes Baltimore over the weekend. The volume is a boon for Javier Báez, Spencer Torkelson and streamer options such as Robbie Grossman (46% owned in redraft, 76% dynasty). Maybe Austin Meadows can use this time to get his act together. But first, he needs to get healthy (sat out 5/8 due to a non-COVID illness). By the way, did you know that a group of tigers is called a streak? #FunFacts #TheMoreYouKnow
“Mark It Guaranteed”
White Sox play seven games this week and all at Guaranteed Rate Field (CLE – 3, NYY – 4). As you will soon see in our park factors update, home runs are leaving Guaranteed Rate at above-average rates, especially to right field. Slugging has been right around the mean along with hitters getting on base. This will set up for a score fest in the four-game series with New York as the Pale Hose keep up with a hot Yankees lineup. The men on the bump will have something to say about this, and there are some damn fine ones on each side, yet there are still some areas to attack.
For example, Yankees will need a spot start on 5/12 due to last weekend’s monsoon. They do have some decent options with Clarke Schmidt, Deivi García and Luis Gil* in the minors and on the 40-man, or they could use Michael King in a BP game (threw 33 pitches in three innings on 5/4). However, in these conditions and acknowledging the park factors, it weakens the opposition. *Gets the call
“Come Out to the Coast, We’ll Get Together, Have a Few Laughs”
Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim play four games in three days. Furthermore, in case you are worried about your boys, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, getting fatigued, LAA plays their seven games with a day off in between series. By the way, did I hear a player on the Braves sat out due to fatigue? That’s some bullshit right there. Anyway, Angels are scheduled to face six right-handed starters, which is good news for Ohtani and fellow lefty bats.
Things are even better and busier for Oakland. Remember, they also play that five-game set at Detroit for a total of nine games! We haven’t seen the “purple nine” since 2020 due to the pandemic, only this year, that’s 81 innings. Ok, maybe we aren’t going six-to-midnight because it’s a rebuilding A’s team, but volume is king in the weekly-lock fantasy game. Stop your whining that you wish it was a surging team like the Brewers with this schedule. Isn’t it enough that they are tied with the Yankees for most home runs in baseball (35)? Instead, enjoy a small victory for players such as Sean Murphy, Sheldon Neuse and Chad Pinder. And in deeper leagues, you can look to stream Tony Kemp (5.5% owned in redraft, 36% dynasty), Seth Brown (4.5%, 40%) or good ole’ Elvis Andrus (3.5%, 25%).
Rounding out our West-Coast swing, the Dodgers are back in our lives after we suffered through their five-game week last period. They play seven this week (@PIT – 3, PHI – 4). Additionally, due to Mother Nature last weekend, they will miss a rediscovered Zack Wheeler and instead get a spot start with Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin and Ranger Suárez. As for Pittsburgh, it’s looking like the Dillon Peters/Bryse Wilson tandem, José Quintana and potentially Max Kranick. Batter up!
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Aaron Nola4 (@SEA, @LAD) ← Nola could pick up a second start if Zach Eflin can’t make it back from the CV19-IL this weekend.
- Brandon Woodruff6 (@CIN, @MIA)
- Julio Urías9 (@PIT, PHI)
- Lucas Giolito10 (CLE,
NYY) ← PPD on 5/11 costs Giolito his second start. - Frankie Montas13 (DET, LAA)
- Justin Verlander16 (@MIN, @WSH) ← Jake Odorizzi will either be skipped or will piggyback Cristian Javier on 5/14. Javier is confirmed as the starter by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.
- Carlos Rodón25 (COL, @STL)
- Luis Castillo30 (MIL, @PIT)IL
- Robbie Ray33 (PHI, @NYM) ← Moved to 5/15 in place of Flexen to pick up a second start
- Kyle Wright37 (BOS, SD)
- Noah Syndergaard46 (TB,
@OAK) ← Angels are auditioning two young arms (Chase Silseth & Jhonathan Diaz) for their sixth rotation spot this weekend with the luxury of a DH 27th man, which pushes Thor to 5/16. - Michael Kopech47 (CLE, NYY)
- Alex Wood48 (COL,
@STL) ← Pushed to 5/16 with Jakob Junis taking another turn in the rotation. - Carlos Carrasco49 (@WSH, SEA)
- Tarik Skubal54 (@OAK, BAL)
- Joe Ryan56 (HOU, CLE) ← We can’t lose a second start for Ryan in consecutive weeks, can we? His second stanza depends on the statuses of Dylan Bundy (CV19-IL 5/5) and Bailey Ober (10-day IL 4/29; strained groin). The prior tested positive and will need to clear health & safety protocols before returning to action, which he is eligible for on 5/11.
Luis Severino41 Nestor Cortes65 (TEX, @CHW) ← Yanks reshuffle things with days off in hand. They move up Cortes for a two-start week and slide Severino to face TOR on 5/10. Makes sense strategically but something that literally could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!- Miles Mikolas69 (BAL,
SF) ← Adam Wainwright will start on 5/15 but will have workload monitored.
Other Options: Kyle Hendricks71 (@SD, @ARI), Chris Flexen74 (PHI, @NYM), Paul Blackburn75 (@DET, LAA), Ranger Suárez78 (@SEA, @LAD), Michael Pineda89 (OAK, BAL)
Danger Zone: Corey Kluber102 (@LAA, TOR), Tyler Wells106 (KC, @DET), Martín PérezNR (KC, BOS), Zach Plesac113 (@CHW, @MIN), Elieser HernandezNR (@ARI, MIL), Carlos HernándezNR (@TEX, @COL), Humberto CastellanosNR (MIA, CHC), Hunter Greene100 (MIL, @PIT), José QuintanaNR (LAD, CIN), Patrick CorbinNR (NYM, HOU)*
*I should have put Corbin in a fourth grouping called “Dead Zone!” If you even think about putting him anywhere near your lineup, I’ll donkey punch you faster than Trevor Bauer… too soon? UPDATE: CLE is going through a rash of positive COVID cases, necessitating a PPD on 5/11 @CHW. This eliminates Plesac’s second start even if the team can return to the field for the series opener @MIN (Aaron Civale – 5/13, Shane Bieber – 5/14, Triston McKenzie – 5/15). As for the ChiSox rotation…
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR May 9 – 15
UPDATE: Zach Eflin goes on CVD-IL 5/8; start @LAD up in the air (a start to avoid anyway, but Zack Wheeler’s is not!). Cristian Javier was used in relief on 5/8, piggybacking Odorizzi. He’ll now slide to the back of six-man @WSH on 5/14 unless HOU uses him to piggyback Odorizzi again with the off-day on 5/9. Afterward, HOU plays 16 games in 16 days, so my lean is he starts 5/14. (5/10) Eduardo Rodriguez is pushed to 5/13 vs. BAL with Joey Wentz’ MLB debut on 5/11 (DET No. 8 prospect). (5/13) Kershaw – 15-day IL with SI joint inflammation in the pelvic region.
Pitching Spotlight
Kevin Gausman pitched 35.1 innings before giving up his first walk this season, and he did it on four pitches, lol. What a way to begin his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays! Furthermore, Gausman came dangerously close to Corbin Burnes’ record of 52 strikeouts with zero walks to begin a season with his 45 Ks. But did you know, the record for most consecutive innings without a walk is held by Bill Fischer of the Kansas City Athletics with 84.1 IP (1962). The National League record is held by a more familiar name, Greg Maddux – 72.1, 2001. This week, Gausman will take a trip down to Tropicana Field for a start against the Rays. The Trop is sporting pitcher-friendly park factors this season (see above).
Chris Flexen has been a bit of an anomaly ever since returning from the KBO in 2021. Overseas, he learned how to pitch and keep the ball down in the zone, resulting in a 57% groundball rate (his previous high was 41.4%).
While not maintaining that stellar level, Flexen still had a 42.4% rate in 2021 when he returned to the bigs in Seattle. With finer control, he posted a 6.4% walk rate in 116.2 KBO innings. His previous “low” was 15%. Transporting back to 2021, he bested the KBO BB rate with a 5.4% in 179.2 innings pitched. Coupled with a BAA of .265, he kept runners off base and induced lots of medium-to-low contact on the ground. As a result, Flex had one helluva return in 2021 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
So far, 2022 has been more of the same, although the BB rate has ballooned to 7.8% and the GB rate has fallen to 38.4%. Flex has made up for it largely based on a BAA of .226. However, the BABIP is a low .244 and his strand rate is nearly 80%. Plus, he never misses bats, yet his swinging-strike rate is 10.1% when he’s never been above 8.6% in the majors. Additionally, with a 23.8% career CSW, he’ll not be able to take advantage of the matchup with Philadelphia.
Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, HOU, SD, MIL*, MIN*
Milwaukee will rotate between a five- and six-man rotation based on schedule needs. Aaron Ashby will be utilized on and off as a multi-inning guy and starter when the team does not have an off day. This will consistently keep the rotation at an extra day of rest. After starting on 5/8, Ashby should be back in the pen with all staff having at least five days rest.
Twins are rolling with five starters until Bailey Ober/Dylan Bundy returns from the IL, which could happen as soon as 5/10. However, after 5/30 when pitcher max reduces to 13 (we think!), manager Rocco Baldelli had this to say: “If that number shrinks going forward and does go down to 13, I don’t want to say it would be impossible, but it would be very difficult to have a six-man rotation.”
Twins have prospect Josh Winder (MLB #91, MIN #4), who they like as a starter, in their long-relief role (currently subbing for Ober in the rotation). Once everyone is healthy, Winder would be a candidate to head down to Triple-A St. Paul so he can remain in a starting role. This would leave Cody Stashak as the lone long man and leave the pen a man short. In my opinion, once a decision needs to be made, Chris Archer will be used in long relief or tandem with another pitcher, say Dylan Bundy?
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Carlos Correa – DTD, Finger
Correa and the Twins got good news when CT scans showed no fracture of his right middle finger after he was hit by a pitch. The finger is bruised and sore, and Correa is considered day-to-day. While a stint on the injury list hasn’t been completely ruled out, major injury has. He’s been absent from the lineup for two days, and until we at least see a pinch-hit appearance, I would hold onto Royce Lewis in 15-16 team leagues or ones with deep benches. Anything less, and you can start to part ways at this point, but at least you took your shot. Maybe you can get some cheap value out of Lewis until Correa is ready to go.
Byron Buxton – DTD, Hip Tightness
Not all good news for the Twinkies. Buck left his game on 5/7 due to right hip tightness, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. He will be reevaluated as we wait with bated breath.
Chris Sale – 60-DAY IL, Ribs
Sale’s return from a stress fracture in his right rib cage will be delayed a few weeks due to what chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom termed “a personal medical issue.”
Andrew Heaney – 10-DAY IL, Left Shoulder Discomfort
Manager Dave Roberts said Heaney is scheduled to play catch at some point this weekend in Chicago, though the left-hander is still a ways away from returning.
Nick Lodolo – 10-DAY IL, Back
Lodolo was supposed to return last weekend, but the 6’6” lefty had a setback with his ailing back. He was examined on 5/6 and deemed not ready, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. According to manager David Bell, there is no timetable for his return. Lodolo’s height works against him here as it puts extra strain on the soft tissue of the lower back. Until Lodolo begins some sort of throwing program, we should consider him unavailable until further notice.
The COVID List
Adam Wainwright (will start on 5/15 but will have workload monitored)
Andrew McCutchen
Dylan Bundy (cleared protocols but still on IL as of 5/11)
Joey Votto (may require rehab stint; expected back late May)
Luis Arraez (cleared protocols but still on IL as of 5/11)
Rich Hill (no longer feeling symptoms and could return @TEX this weekend)Zack Wheeler (will be activated to pitch 5/12 @LAD)
Zach Eflin
Marcus Stroman
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Austin Gomber122, LH COL (@SF, KC; 5.6% owned in redraft, 53% dynasty) – If you’re active in the Discord chat, you’re already on Gomber and know my feelings. But in case you’re not, I like Gomber a great deal. From tracking his stats going back to his 2018 rookie season, I could see the potential in this now 28-year-old pitcher. In 75 innings of his rookie year for the Cards, he posted a plump 4.44 ERA with an even more obese 5.58 xERA. However, the FIP was down at 4.03 with an xFIP of 4.51. Gomber’s 2019 season was kept to the minor leagues as he battled back from injury, and in 2020, he only registered 29 official innings (not including Alternate Site work where reports indicate he grew in his development).
In 2021, over 115 innings, the most he’s thrown, he again had the plump ERA (4.53). However, this time, the xERA dipped below the ERA at 4.06 with a 4.18 xFIP. So far this year, he’s rocking a 3.58 ERA (4.27 xERA), 3.47 FIP and 3.22 xFIP as he steps into a prime year for his career. I don’t know Gomber personally, but something tells me he’s a good kid with a strong work ethic, coming from the St. Louis organization and acquired in the Nolan Arenado deal. The Cardinals have done me dirty over the years, but I respect the baseball players they produce a great deal. Is he the best pitcher on the market? No, but a strong fifth for your fantasy roster. And with these two moderate to below-average matchups, he’ll make a fine stream this week.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Bradish125, RH BAL (@STL, @DET; <1%,25%) – St. Louis may seem scary, but the Cardinals have the eighth-worst OPS (.630), fourth-worst ISO (.105) and eighth-worst wOBA (.286) vs. RHP. Detroit is an even more prime matchup for Bradish as they have the third-worst OPS (.585), second-worst ISO (.091) and third-worst wOBA (.268) vs. RHP. UPDATE: Bradish pushed to 5/16 vs. NYY ?
Solo Start (DYNASTY ADD!): George KirbyNR, RH SEA (@NYM; 1.4%, 53%) – Seattle will add prized prospect Kirby (No. 29 overall) to the major-league roster for his debut on 5/8. Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline and MiLB reported on MLB Network Friday that Kirby was at the doorstep and knocking to come in despite only tossing 50.2 innings at the Double-A for his career.
However, no pitching prospect in the minors throws more strikes than Kirby. He peppers the zone with velocity (triple-digit heater that averages 95-97mph, depending on who you reference) along with a solid repertoire of secondary pitches. His fourseam fastball generates whiffs, and his 86mph slider feeds off the velocity with a good amount of two-plane movement from the film I saw. A changeup and curveball round out his arsenal, although the pitch frequencies are far less than the fastball and slider. From what I saw though, both have potential, especially the change. His walk rate has been no higher than 6.4%, and he has 20 free passes in 115.1 innings across all levels for his career. He misses bats too with regularity (11.68 K/9 in 2022).
This article will be published before Kirby’s MLB debut against Tampa Bay, so the results will certainly dictate the status of his start this week. But should he do well, and if the command he has shown in the minors translates, I can see him occupying Matt Brash’s former spot in the rotation for the time being. Either way, a fantastic addition to dynasty teams!
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, May 15, 2022
*Not Confirmed
Rise & Shine for a good one!
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