MLB Weekly Preview: April 25 – May 1

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: One-game series now? The Giants visit Milwaukee on 4/25 for a quick hitter. The reason? The contest was supposed to be part of the seven games the two teams played to start the season. However, due to the lockout, adjustments were made to the schedule. To make it work and get the full 162, the powers that be have the two teams playing a four-game set in San Francisco (7/14-17), a scheduled doubleheader on 9/8 in Milwaukee and this lone game. Hey, we’ll take a seven-game week for our Brewer hitters and a six-game week for San Fran, where they may have had five otherwise, even with the 27.5-hour turnaround from Milwaukee back home to San Fran. All told, 11 teams play seven games this week, while 18 play six. Oakland is the only team with five games.

A Few Areas to Target

North of the Border
The Red Sox are scheduled to face seven right-handed pitchers (RHP) this week. It’s a motley crew of arms:

• José Berríos
• Kevin Gausman
• Ross Stripling
• Alek Manoah
• Spenser Watkins
• Chris Ellis
• Jordan Lyles

Despite facing three elite arms, I’d be comfortable firing up my lefty Boston bats, i.e. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo, especially in the second half of the week. And all the hitters get a lift from the volume of a seven-game week. But not so fast! We don’t know which players are vaccinated and which won’t be traveling to Canada (other than Tanner Houck, but we are talking hitters here). Managers need to keep tabs on any vaccination reports (if any) that may come out indicating who won’t make the trip, as a three-game week makes Boston’s studs (or any team’s for that matter) unstartable in weekly formats.

And as for the home team, the Blue Jays won’t have to travel at all, hosting all seven of their games from the always cozy Rogers Centre (see Park Factors). Furthermore, the Jays are scheduled to see six RHP. This dampens the spirit of a righty-laden lineup, but lefty bats Raimel Tapia (3.4% owned in redraft, 42% in dynasty) and Zack Collins (5.5%, 28%) will get a lift.

Rocky Mountain High With Philly on the Down-low
Rockies play four at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park before coming home to play the Reds for three. The starting pitching matchups are slightly unfavorable, but Cincinnati’s relievers have had the second-highest xFIP (4.60), and Philadelphia’s relievers have had the fifth-highest xFIP (4.12). And speaking of the Phillies, they are scheduled to see six RH starters, which is music to the ears of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Didi Gregorius^DTD, etc. Additionally, Colorado’s relievers have had the sixth-highest xFIP.

I Prefer the Right Twinkie
Twins could face five out of six LH starters (including Josh Fleming, who followed an opener last time out, and a potentially returning Ryan Yarbrough). We don’t often see this far-sided advantage for right-handed bats, so best to fire up Gio Urshela (18.6% owned in redraft, 64% in dynasty) and Miguel Sanó (17.3%, 68%) along with the obvious plays of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco. Depending on the Gary Sánchez injury news, Ryan Jeffers (1%, 20%) is worthy of consideration.

ShoTime!
This week sets up well for Shohei Ohtani. He not only faces six right-handed starters but is also scheduled to pitch on 4/27 versus Cleveland. The Guardians have been protecting their (new) good name by achieving at the plate, especially José Ramírez, who is flat-out raking. However, other than Ramírez and Franmil Reyes, there are no batters I fear in this lineup. Daily league managers who roster Ohtani are delighted!

I Woke up This Morning and I Got Myself a Beer
Rookie Seth Beer is batting .375 on the young season (as of 4/23). The rest of the Arizona Diamondbacks have batted .168. Crazy! Anyway, the lefty Beer is scheduled to face six right-handed starters this week. He is tearing up both pitching handedness this season, but for his professional career, he has a .384/.414/.625 slash vs. righties. If he is available in your league, run – don’t walk – to your waiver “fridge” Sunday night (7% owned in redraft, 55% in dynasty)!

Lastly, allow me to offer congratulations to Miggy! Miguel Cabrera became the 33^rd member of the 3,000-hit club after much anticipation. He is the third Detroit Tiger to accomplish the feat (Ty Cobb, Al Kaline). Cabrera is also the seventh player in MLB history to hit 500+ home runs along with the 3,000 base knocks (Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray and Rafael Palmeiro). Next up for Miggy, 600 doubles. That’s even rarer air as only Aaron and Pujols can claim that feat. Cabrera is at 599. Countless championships this man has helped me win… we’ll see ya in Cooperstown!

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2021 Statistics

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Corbin Burnes¹ (SF, CHC)
2. Max Scherzer³ (@STL, PHI)
3. Walker Buehler⁵ (@ARI, DET)
4. Sandy Alcantara⁶ (@WSH, SEA)
5. Shane Bieber⁷ (@LAA, @OAK)
6. Joe Musgrove¹³ (@CIN, @PIT) ← Second start is dependent on SD pitching plans (see Six-Man Pitching Staffs below) ?
7. Kevin Gausman¹⁸ (BOS, HOU)
8. Max Fried²⁰ (CHC, @TEX) ← Click Here… Confirmed
9. José Berríos²¹ (BOS, HOU)
10. Nathan Eovaldi³¹ (@TOR, @BAL)
11. Carlos Rodón³⁴ (@MIL, WSH) ← Rodón pushed to 4/26 vs. OAK; only one start
12. Framber Valdez³⁵ (@TEX, @TOR)
13. Eduardo Rodriguez³⁶ (@MIN, @LAD)
14. Marcus Stroman³⁷ (@ATL, @MIL)
15. Logan Gilbert⁴¹ (@TB, @MIA)
16. Luis Severino⁴⁶ (BAL, @KC)

Other Options: Zach Eflin⁵⁴ (COL, @NYM), Chris Paddack⁶² (DET, @TB)*, Triston McKenzie⁶⁵ (@LAA, @OAK), Kyle Gibson⁸¹ (COL, @NYM), Nick Pivetta⁹² (@TOR, @BAL)*

*Sonny Gray will not be activated from IL when eligible 4/27 despite throwing a successful BP session the day prior, but Josh Winder will get the spot start to push others to cover for Ober (IL). And with news that Tanner Houck will piggyback Rich Hill, Pivetta lines up for second start.

Danger Zone: Mitch Keller¹⁰¹ (MIL, SD), Merrill Kelly¹³⁹ & Zach Davies^NR (LAD, @STL), Dane Dunning¹⁴⁰ & Taylor Hearn¹⁴⁵ (HOU, ATL), Daniel Lynch¹⁴⁷ (@CHW, NYY)*, Kyle Freeland^NR (@PHI, CIN), Jordan Hicks^NR (NYM, ARI)*, Josh Fleming^NR (SEA, MIN), Dallas Keuchel^NR (KC, LAA), Jordan Lyles^NR (@NYY, BOS), Michael Lorenzen^NR (CLE, @CHW), Reiver Sanmartin^NR (SD, @COL)

*This is a good week to sit Lynch as both White Sox and Yankees (to a degree) crush lefties. Hicks isn’t up to a starter’s workload yet; once he is, he’ll move up in rankings (ranks 55 among relievers).

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 25 – May 1

Pitching Spotlight

Taijuan Walker (right shoulder bursitis) is listed red as well in this week’s rankings since he resides on the injured list, but by all accounts, he should be activated to start against the same team he hurt himself against, the Philadelphia Phillies. If he is unable to go, Mets will recall David Peterson, who has done an admirable job filling in and was sent down after his last start for extra pen help (Adonis Medina, who looked fantastic, striking out the side in his first inning of work). Either way, we’ll see Peterson again when New York plays a doubleheader on 5/3 against Atlanta. And if Walker can not specifically go on 4/29, Tylor Megill could pitch on regular rest, allowing Walker to be activated for the 4/30 contest (both against Philadelphia).  

Walker tossed 45 pitches over three innings in an extended Spring Training game in Florida on 4/20 before joining his team in Arizona. Additionally, he threw a successful BP session on 4/22 at Chase Field before the series opener against the D’Backs. Walker is scheduled to throw either a simulated game when the club is in St. Louis or make a Minor League rehab start. Mets manager Buck Showalter said if Walker has no issues through that next outing, his next start will surely be with the big club. UPDATE: Walker is expected to start 4/30, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reports. And as noted, Tylor Megill will take the mound on 4/29.

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, MIN, MIL, HOU

Twins currently rolling with five starters until Sonny Gray returns from IL, which is expected on 4/27 when first available*. In other news, Milwaukee will rotate between a five- and six-man rotation based on schedule needs. Aaron Ashby will be utilized on and off as a multi-inning guy and starter when the team does not have an off day. This will consistently keep the rotation at an extra day of rest. On the horizon is San Diego when Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell return; MacKenzie Gore is making a hard push to stay with the big club, and Ray writes the Padres could shift Nick Martinez to the pen. Atlanta drops down to a standard five-man rotation since everyone is stretched out. Spencer Strider remains an option to start if Bryce Elder should falter, while Huascar Ynoa and Touki Toussaint are hanging down at Triple-A Gwinnett, honing their craft.

*UPDATE:

Just as I was about to publish the article, Houston announced they are going to a six-man rotation by adding Cristian Javier to the mix. It should last for a while too with Houston’s upcoming stretch of 33 games in 34 days. The Odorific one is safe for now, as Jake Odorizzi is still scheduled to start versus Texas. However, he does lose a potential second start, but with his struggles, are we sad about a missed start @TOR? No.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Anthony DeSclafani – Placed on 10-day IL 4/22 with right ankle inflammation. He has had decreased velocity early in the season, and he’s now scheduled to undergo an MRI on 4/25. Disco had a problematic ankle last season, and with a cortisone injection, he returned quickly to the mound. No timetable for a return till we see MRI results.

Josh Bell (hamstring) departed early from his game on 4/23 due to right hamstring tightness, according to Andrew Golden of the Washington Post. Golden goes on to tweet, “Bell’s not going to start today (4/24), but Martinez did leave the potential for Bell to pinch-hit.” With “pretty clean” MRI results, this appears to be a maintenance situation similar to the knee issue this past week (plus they have an off-day 4/25). However, there is no word if he may miss additional time.

In the still of the night, we found out Michael Conforto (shoulder, unsigned) underwent right shoulder surgery… in “mid-April.” It was also announced he will not play in 2022, according to a report by Jon Heyman. #Shady This throws another monkey wrench into what was a promising career. He’ll be 30 years old next year and looking for a job. Feel free to drop in most formats. I may still stash in dynasty, but I’m actively looking for alternatives. 

Gary Sánchez – The Twins catcher – weird to say – is still DTD with abdominal tightness and missed his fourth-consecutive day on 4/24. His MRI results were clean, and while serious injury has been avoided, he is having trouble getting back into the lineup. Since Minnesota has an off day on 4/25, the plan appears to give Sanchez max time to heal. However, check his status before locking him in on 4/26.

Now, for a laundry list of White Sox…

Eloy Jiménez was carted off the field on 4/23 after injuring his right leg while beating it out to first, trying for an infield hit. Being labeled as hamstring soreness, manager Tony La Russa, who was physically distressed and expressing family sentiments, said the injury was significant but not projected to be season-ending. Ouch! Luis Robert (DTD; groin) will miss his third-consecutive day on 4/24, but we knew he’d be out for the weekend. The hope is a return for the series opener against KC. Lastly, Yoán Moncada (strained right oblique) has started swinging a bat, but he is still feeling discomfort. He has been on the IL since 4/4, and there is no timetable for his return.

Salvador Perez was hit in the left hand by a 94-mph fastball from Mariners reliever Yohan Ramirez on 4/23. The veteran catcher stayed in the game to run the bases but did not return behind the plate in the bottom of the seventh. Fortunately, the X-rays were negative, Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star reports. We’ll have to see what further tests reveal after the swelling subsides.

Pouring one out for my boy, John Means. It was announced on 4/23 that the 29-year-old left-handed pitcher will soon undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his 2022 season and likely some of 2023, as well. Obvious dump in redraft leagues, and you may even wanna consider doing so in dynasty unless you play with a deep bench.

Blue Jays on the mend…

Hyun Jin Ryu (left forearm inflammation) is progressing in his throwing program in Toronto, getting up to 120 feet with increased intensity.
Nate Pearson (mononucleosis… my man!) threw live batting practice 4/23 at the Blue Jays’ Spring Training complex in Dunedin, Fla., without any issues.
Teoscar Hernández has started his hitting progression in Toronto, more than a week after aggravating his left side on a swinging strike.
George Springer (right forearm contusion) returned to Toronto’s lineup as the designated hitter 4/23. The slugger was hit by a pitch earlier in the week. 

Finally, Jose Altuve (left hamstring strain) took grounders at second base and participated in some running drills before the ‘Stros past game. Altuve felt good after the workout, but he has not hit since heading to the IL on 4/20. There isn’t a timetable for return as of this writing. His teammate, closer Ryan Pressly, is scheduled to face live hitters on 4/24 yet will not be activated. Until he does so and comes out feeling good, we can assume his absence will extend into the week. Joy! 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Miles Mikolas¹²⁴, RH STL (NYM, ARI; 24.7% owned in redraft, 72% in dynasty) – Mikolas’ ownership has gone down in recent days. But not for us sharps! The D’Backs represent an excellent matchup at the back-end of the week (4/30 too, which offers second-start security). New York is much more challenging, but even they can be hit-or-miss. On the season, Mikolas has a 1.76 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP in 15.1 innings pitched (3 GS). Diving deeper, his xERA lies at 2.59, his xFIP is 3.78, and the SIERA is 3.57… all fine marks! The strikeout rate is below league average at 20.6%, but that is mostly due to a one-strikeout performance in his first start (seven and five respectively in last two). Furthermore, his walk rate is excellent at 4.8%, so he doesn’t hurt himself.

One last thing… Mikolas has had success at Busch Stadium. In 2021, he posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.154 WHIP at home, while the figures were 5.65 and 1.326 on the road.

Honorable Mention: Josiah Gray⁶⁷, RH WSH (MIA, @SF; 27.9% owned in redraft, 90% in dynasty) – Second time’s a charm?! Gray missed out on his second start when Washington opted to have the 24-year-old rising hurler start the series opener against the Marlins this week. Both he and Joan Adon^NR (0.5% owned in redraft, 20% in dynasty) threw in last week’s doubleheader, and the latter got the ball on Sunday. Keep a watchful eye on young Adon, as the 23-year-old will be streamable this season.

Solo Start: Kyle Wright¹¹⁷, RH ATL (CHC; 43.5% owned in redraft (rising fast though), 81% in dynasty) – Wright is pitching awesome in his first 17 innings of the season and has a good matchup!!!

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, May 1, 2022