In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
Both CLE & CHW drop to six games this week due to 4/18 PPD (to be made up as a split doubleheader on 7/12; second PPD made up with doubleheader on 4/20).
NOTES: This will be an offensive-minded week, which means we need to be keen on our hitting choices. All teams play either six (18 clubs) or seven (12 clubs) games, with nobody drawing the short end of the stick at five. With more choices on your team since hitters can’t be eliminated due to schedule alone, identify which household names, who may be struggling right now, you are sticking with vs. which hot bench hitters are worthy of starting. Take a look at the scheduled pitching matchups to see if there is a run of poor arms that bench players can take advantage of and keep their hot streaks alive. Otherwise, have faith in your draft plan. As the saying goes, “patience and prudence,” and this is especially true in the fantasy game. Hopefully, the following target areas will help with your decisions…
A Few Areas to Target
Whatcha Gonna Do, When Sotomania Runs Wild on You!
Even with a shell of a lineup around him, Soto is still producing like a first-round pick should – .207 ISO, .368 wOBA (.455 xwOBA), 14.3% K rate, 17.1% BB rate. Only a .820 OPS, but it’s early. Mr. Soto will be home for seven games at Nationals Park, which has park factors of 1.101 for runs and 1.267 for home runs in 2021. Furthermore, the left-handed hitter is scheduled to face five four right-handed pitchers this week (ARI – 4, SF – 3).
- Madison Bumgarner
- Tyler Gilbert – LH (screws our plans a bit, but Gilbert has only thrown 40 major-league innings (2021) with mild success)
- Merrill Kelly
- Zach Davies
- Alex Wood
- Tyler Beede – RH/Sam Long – LH (tandem)
- Alex Cobb
There are challenges in this schedule for Soto and the rest of the Nationals. But not ones I’m looking to avoid based on the park. Perhaps, I can turn you onto red-hot Josh Bell (.310/.429/.552), Keibert Ruiz or even the Yadiel Hernandez side of the platoon with Victor Robles. Hernandez already has two multi-hit games out of six played, including four hits the past two nights. UPDATE: Nats will now see three lefties and four righties.
Pale Hose Risin’
White Sox left-handed hitters are projected to see seven six RHP out of seven six games this week. With a non-imposing pitching schedule, Gavin Sheets makes for a fine streamer. According to FanGraphs, Sheets has hit .257/.331/.534 with 11 homers in 166 plate appearances against righties. Your Yasmani Grandal shares will benefit as well in an otherwise righty-laden lineup. Other such benefactors are Blue Jay left-handed hitters Cavan Biggio and Raimel Tapia (projected to see six righties out of six games), Giants left-handed hitters Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, Joc Pederson and Brandon Crawford (projected to see six righties out of seven games) and Padres right-handed hitters Manny Machado, Luke Voit, Wil Myers (swollen thumb) and Austin Nola (projected to see five lefties out of six games if you count Reiver Sanmartin, who may follow an opener).
It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia
The Fightin’ Phills may only have six games this week, but they come as strong as Dennis Reynolds’ aftershave. Phillies travel to Coors Field to open the week before a three-game series in their homer-friendly home digs, Citizens Bank Park. Just as important, when hosting the Milwaukee Brewers, they will avoid Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. The “best lineup in baseball” hasn’t been exactly firing on all cylinders. They have scored three or fewer runs in four of their first eight games. But this may be the week Bryce Harper goes nuclear and Nick Castellanos gives away his signed jersey.
Windy City
Check those winds and weather reports… Cubs are at Wrigley Field for seven games this week! Stay up to date for the latest in your daily leagues and DFS. With the right shift, Cubs (and inversely their opponents’ hitters in the Rays and Pirates) can carry you this week. Seiya Suzuki continues his Award Tour around the States, belting three home runs and beginning the year with a six-game hitting streak. He’s been on base in every game and carries a 1.375 OPS. Better than advertised, he has been.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2021 Statistics
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Gerrit Cole1 (@DET, CLE)
- Max Scherzer4 (SF,
@ARI) ← Due to 4/18 PPD, if NYM keep on pitching schedule, Max will lose second start in favor of Tylor Megill. While I expect both to start in 4/19 doubleheader, either can be selected to throw on 4/24. Depends on which way Mets wanna go, but why not give the old dog two consecutive stretches of five-days rest, especially early in season. They will also now need a spot starter on 4/23; Trevor Williams is the likeliest candidate. - Shane Bieber6 (CHW,
@NYY) ← Start vs. CHW is now pushed to 4/20 from two PPDs, removing second start. - Aaron Nola8 (@COL, MIL)
- Frankie Montas14 (BAL, TEX)
- Robbie Ray18 (TEX, KC) ← Pay attention to Ray’s velo, especially at home where weather is a non-factor when roof is closed!
- Sean Manaea21 (CIN, LAD)
- Logan Webb26 (@NYM, @WSH) ← Same boat as Max; although Alex Cobb (listed below) came out of his first start due to injury. Check Cobb’s status for 4/24 starter. UPDATE: Cobb to IL with right adductor strain; Webb regains second start!
- Shane McClanahan28 (@CHC, BOS)
- Nathan Eovaldi29 (TOR,
@TB) ← Boston shuffling rotation since Houck can’t travel to Toronto next week due to vaccination status (see below). - Clayton Kershaw30 (ATL, @SD) ← Will Dave Roberts at least let Kershaw pitch twice?
- Eduardo Rodriguez33 (NYY,
COL) ← ERod loses his second start due to PPD on 4/17, as Detroit will push Tyler AlexanderNR (scheduled starter) to 4/19 for the two-start… great! - Luis Garcia41 (LAA, TOR)
- Kyle Hendricks45 (TB, PIT)
- Alex Cobb56 (@NYM,
@WSH)IL - Adam Wainwright59 (@MIA, @CIN)
- Carlos Hernández60 (MIN, @SEA)
Other Options: Yusei Kikuchi61 (@BOS, @HOU)*, Madison Bumgarner63 (@WSH, NYM)*, Triston McKenzie67 (CHW, @NYY), Jesús Luzardo72 (STL, @ATL), Tylor Megill74 (SF, @ARI?), Eric Lauer74 (PIT, @PHI) – see ‘Pitching Spotlight’ for update on Aaron Ashby
*I wouldn’t mind if you sat out this rough two-step for Kikuchi. But I’m more about these last three 👀
*UPDATE: Due to 4/18 PPD, MadBum will have his start @WSH pushed to the doubleheader on 4/19. However, he will maintain two-start status, only the latter will now come on 4/24. Also, the D’Backs announced they will push rest of the rotation in favor of a spot start in Game 2. According to Jody Jackson of Bally Sports AZ, Tyler Gilbert will be called up from Triple-A Reno to make that spot start. – McK has his second start wiped (assuming CLE does push everyone down in rotation due to 4/18 PPD).
Danger Zone: Jon Gray76 (@SEA, @OAK)IL*, Rich Hill83 (MIN, @TB – Tanner Houck to piggyback 2nd start on 4/24 now), Cole Irvin121 (BAL, TEX)*, Daniel Lynch147 (MIN, @SEA), Justin SteeleNR (TB, PIT), Dylan BundyNR (@BOS, CHW), Chris ArcherNR (@KC, CHW), JT BrubakerNR (@MIL, @CHC), Dallas KeuchelNR (@CLE, @MIN), Chad KuhlNR (PHI, @DET), Joan AdonNR (ARI, SF)
*Gray (blister) is eligible to return from the 10-day injured list on 4/19, and in his opinion, he “believes we’re on track.” This is something we’ll need to track in the coming days (thus the Danger Zone designation), and it would make sense to push Dane Dunning to 4/20 to give the young man an extra day’s rest (Dunning was listed as probable for 4/20 after this writing… paving way for Gray? Yes, Gray confirmed, but just as we got him back, the IL pulled him back in – MLC Sprain). Not gonna lie though, I feel real “dangerous” about starting Cole Irvin and will be rolling the dice! But please, Lord, keep me away from Justin Steele 🙏
*UPDATE: Lynch loses his second start due to PPD on 4/17, as KC will push Hernández (scheduled starter who lost his second start last week) to 4/19. Adon should lose second start due to 4/18 PPD unless Nationals opt to start him over Josiah Gray on 4/24 (please don’t do that!). Additionally, WSH will now need a spot starter on 4/23. I expect Austin Voth to pitch bulk innings in a BP game. A remote possibility is injured vet Aníbal Sánchez, but according to manager Davey Martinez, this is unlikely. Keuchel’s start vs. CLE is now pushed to 4/20 from two PPDs, removing second start. CHW will also need a starter now, and it could be Lucas Giolito.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 18 – 24
Pitching Spotlight
Michael Pineda will make his next start on 4/17* at Triple-A for the Toledo Mud Hens… one of the coolest names and organizations in the minor leagues. If it goes well, Pineda will be in the mix to rejoin the Tigers as early as next weekend (4/22-24)*. His arrival at Spring Training was delayed by visa issues, which necessitated the Tigers to build him up slowly in the minors with the lack of a full camp. He threw 3.1 innings on 4/12 (4 R, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K) and is much needed with the Casey Mize news (see IL Report below).
Last season for the Twinkies, Pineda compiled a 9-8 record with a 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 109.1 innings before suffering two injuries down the stretch. Diving deeper, his expected stats illustrate his luck: 4.21 FIP, 4.29 xFIP, 4.92 xERA, .294 BABIP and a 77.7% strand rate. He won’t be a savior for the Tigers or your fantasy team, but the mofo can put up quality starts. With Detroit’s rotation stepping up a day to cover for Mize, Tyler Alexander and hopefully Pineda will be able to bridge the gap back to Eduardo Rodriguez. In either event, ERod’s two-step seems secure.
*UPDATE: Pineda will not start for Toledo on 4/17, according to Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic. Instead, his next outing will be for the Tigers as he builds up, projected for this week’s Yankees series (est. 4/21). Rest of the staff will stay on normal schedule (pending Matt Manning’s right shoulder discomfort).
In other news, Aaron Ashby has entered the Brewers’ rotation, much to the delight of fantasy managers who had him stashed and the dismay of managers who have the aces from this staff, as the six-man will take away starts. We told you to factor this into your draft plans, so Fantasy Guru Nation is less on tilt. An interesting fact about Ashby’s start this week at Philadelphia… Aaron is the nephew of one-time Phillie pitcher, Andy Ashby. UPDATE: Brewers will skip Ashby this weekend against the Phillies. Instead, Lauer will pitch on normal rest for a second start. Brewers will flex between five- and six-man rotations based on schedule needs. With an off day on 4/21, they can easily roll five men while maintaining proper rest. Afterward, they will play 10 in a row, so that may be when Ashby is utilized again as a starter.
Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, MIN, ATL, MIL (On the horizon is SD when Mike Clevinger returns).
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
John Means (left elbow strain) was placed on the 10-day injured list on 4/15 (retro 4/14). After sweating out the MRI, we finally have our answer… somewhat. He exited his start with left forearm tightness following just four innings and 51 pitches. We often hear how forearm tightness is a sign of elbow issues. The issue reportedly stemmed from a curveball Means threw on Opening Day. He was showing improvement between starts, but then the issue resurfaced in his following start on all his pitches. “Never felt the forearm before,” Means said. “It’s always been little things in the shoulder. I’ve never felt it, and that’s what worried me a little bit.” The severity of the strain is unknown at this time.
UPDATE: Means was transferred to the 60-day IL. Manager Brandon Hyde said that the lefty is “not going to be on a mound for a while.”
Ok, who had game eight for Byron Buxton’s first injury? On 4/15, Buxton exited the Twins’ game after his leadoff double in the top of the first inning. He appeared to injure himself while sliding into second base but walked off the field under his own power. Team officials announced that Buxton has right knee soreness and is undergoing further evaluation. Any injury is a significant development for Buxton, given his problems staying healthy throughout his career.
Casey Mize (right elbow sprain) hits the 10-day IL on 4/15 after pitching five innings against the Royals, striking out just two batters, and letting up two runs on six hits. The move is being labeled as precautionary, so the team can take a look at what’s going on in the elbow. Plus, we are seeing teams take advantage of the 10-day IL before it evaporates.
Ronald Acuña Jr. participated in an extended Spring Training simulated game on 4/15. Acuña could begin a Minor League rehab assignment after a few more days over the weekend in North Port, Braves manager Brian Snitker said.
Jonathan India – After leaving the Reds game on 4/14 with a right hamstring strain while beating out an infield single, India was absent for the following night’s tilt. Manager David Bell told the media to expect India’s absence, but the 25-year-old second baseman could be back in the lineup as early as 4/16. Whether it’s one game missed or a couple, the injury appears to be only minor. Still, I would expect the Reds to err on the side of caution with one of their few bright stars. Brandon Drury is worthy of a speculative add in deeper leagues. *UPDATE: India missed a third straight game on 4/17. No word if he will require an IL stint, and he is listed as DTD
Sonny Gray (right hamstring strain) hit the IL 4/17 after exiting the previous day’s game at just 1.2 innings with tightness in his hamstring. The injury is labeled as a low-grain strain, and Gray should only miss one start (eligible to return 4/27).
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Josiah Gray69, RH WSH (ARI, SF; 12.5-17% owned in redraft, 81% in dynasty) – In 2020, while in the Dodger organization, Gray ranked No. 62 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100. To put that in perspective, the perceived prize of the Max Scherzer deal, Keibert Ruiz, was ranked 68. Maybe this kid has an equal or greater value from the trade than he gets credit for, at least in the fantasy community. Roughly 51% of the time, Gray fires his 97 mph four-seam fastball (94.6 average), which seems to explode at the plate with riding and rising action. However, it has been the development of the curveball and slider that has taken this 24-year-old to the next level. Last season, in 70.2 IP, Gray generated a 47.8% Whiff rate on the curve and 45.0% on the slider, with a curveball putaway percentage of 31.7%.
Josiah is coming off five shutout innings and a victory over the Braves in Atlanta, giving up just one hit while striking out five and walking three. Ronald Acuña Jr. makes that lineup a ton nastier, but Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and newcomer Matt Olson make it very formidable. The curveball usage was up to 34%! The command faltered the second time through the lineup, but all-in-all, it was a statement game for 2022. Now, Gray draws a soft matchup against the Diamondbacks? Yes, please! The Giants are more of a concern, as are both games going down in hitter-friendly Nationals Park (See Important Park Factors above). And young arms will almost always come with inconsistency. However, it’s the matchups with Gray’s curve that interest me. In 2021, current Arizona hitters had a K rate of 32.7% on curveballs. As for the Giants, the mark was 29.9%.
*UPDATE: Gray misses out on his second start due to Washington shifting him for the series opener against the Marlins next week. Joan Adon will instead get the ball on 4/24.
Honorable Mention: Merrill Kelly145, RH ARI (@WSH, NYM; 15.6-18% owned in redraft, 66% in dynasty), Nick Lodolo115, LH CIN (@SD, STL; 6.9-19% owned in redraft, 70% in dynasty) – A lot of hype around Kelly right now… is it warranted? I’m curious but not sold. Lodolo got knocked around in his MLB debut (4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR, L), which keeps one off him, especially with these matchups and Luis Castillo looming. But the talent is there, and he could help in a pinch. The Padres have struck out at the sixth-highest rate on the young season, but the Cardinals kill left-handed pitching (1.168 Team OPS vs. LH). Pass. *UPDATE: Kelly loses second start due to 4/18 PPD and will now throw 4/20 (see Madison Bumgarner note).
Solo Start: David PetersonNR, LH NYM (@ARI; 0.5% owned in redraft, 21% in dynasty) – Beware of the back-to-back, but the D’Backs are that bad. I’m willing to chance it. Peterson posted four scoreless innings of relief after Taijuan Walker (who he steps in for now) exited his start against the Phillies, and the kid looked sharp, just as he did in camp. The one bug-a-boo is the home run ball, which kept him from making the rotation. He’ll have a chance to show he belongs against subpar competition.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, April 24, 2022
1:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Chad Kuhl (RHP, COL) | 1-0 | 0.87 | 4.02 | 4.18 | 3.15 | 23.1% | 12.8% | 40.0% | 40.0% | ||||||||
Tyler Alexander* (LHP, DET) | 0-1 | 4.26 | 3.13 | 3.53 | 3.67 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 31.6% | 27.8% |
1:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Rich Hill* (LHP, BOS) | 0-1 | 7.00 | 5.33 | 5.15 | 4.30 | 15.0% | 7.5% | 35.5% | 58.1% | ||||||||
Shane McClanahan (LHP, TB) | 0-1 | 2.40 | 1.56 | 1.73 | 2.40 | 40.7% | 8.5% | 41.4% | 20.7% |
1:35 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Logan Webb (RHP, SF) | 1-1 | 2.55 | 3.44 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 41.1% | 23.2% | ||||||||
Joan Adon* (RHP, WSH) | 1-2 | 5.87 | 5.09 | 4.81 | 8.50 | 18.3% | 12.7% | 43.8% | 43.8% |
1:35 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Jesús Luzardo (LHP, MIA) | 0-1 | 4.82 | 2.05 | 2.08 | 2.55 | 37.5% | 7.5% | 50.0% | 40.9% | ||||||||
Bryce Elder (RHP, ATL) | 1-1 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.80 | 7.35 | 15.6% | 11.1% | 46.9% | 33.3% |
1:35 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Aaron Civale (RHP, CLE) | 0-1 | 6.14 | 4.87 | 4.17 | 3.84 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 43.5% | 50.0% | ||||||||
Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) | 0-0 | 6.35 | 4.54 | 4.33 | 5.13 | 24.0% | 14.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% |
1:40 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) | 2-1 | 2.81 | 2.64 | 2.76 | 4.22 | 27.9% | 5.9% | 31.1% | 33.3% | ||||||||
Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN) | 0-2 | 8.00 | 3.43 | 3.26 | 3.74 | 25.5% | 10.6% | 21.4% | 17.9% |
2:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, TOR) | 0-1 | 3.24 | 4.74 | 5.00 | 4.33 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 51.9% | 25.9% | ||||||||
Luis Garcia (RHP, HOU) | 1-0 | 2.79 | 4.62 | 4.38 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 7.9% | 37.0% | 63.0% |
2:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Lucas Giolito* (RHP, CHW) | 0-0 | 0.00 | 3.18 | 2.81 | 3.47 | 40.0% | 13.3% | 42.9% | 71.4% | ||||||||
Chris Archer (RHP, MIN) | 0-0 | 2.16 | 4.24 | 3.79 | 3.47 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 30.4% | 56.5% |
2:20 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
JT Brubaker (RHP, PIT) | 0-2 | 7.30 | 5.03 | 4.78 | 4.33 | 22.0% | 15.3% | 40.5% | 48.6% | ||||||||
Justin Steele (LHP, CHC) | 1-1 | 4.50 | 4.07 | 4.36 | 3.49 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 41.7% | 30.6% |
4:07 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Chris Ellis (RHP, BAL) | 0-0 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 5.97 | 3.26 | 10.0% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 33.3% | ||||||||
José Suarez (LHP, LAA) | 0-1 | 5.19 | 5.97 | 6.47 | 7.72 | 12.8% | 17.9% | 44.4% | 40.7% |
4:07 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Spencer Howard* (RHP, TEX) | 0-0 | 18.00 | 2.33 | 1.93 | 8.15 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | ||||||||
Cole Irvin (LHP, OAK) | 1-1 | 4.32 | 4.05 | 4.14 | 7.13 | 14.1% | 4.2% | 49.1% | 33.3% |
4:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Tylor Megill (RHP, NYM) | 2-0 | 2.20 | 2.61 | 2.74 | 3.04 | 23.8% | 3.2% | 37.0% | 29.5% | ||||||||
Madison Bumgarner (LHP, ARI) | 0-1 | 1.38 | 5.78 | 6.01 | 4.28 | 15.8% | 17.5% | 39.5% | 50.0% |
4:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LAD) | 2-0 | 3.00 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 47.6% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 45.5% | ||||||||
Sean Manaea (LHP, SD) | 2-1 | 1.42 | 3.14 | 3.06 | 2.19 | 26.8% | 7.0% | 31.9% | 40.4% |
4:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Carlos Hernández (RHP, KC) | 0-0 | 7.27 | 5.81 | 5.91 | 7.72 | 2.4% | 7.3% | 43.2% | 36.1% | ||||||||
Robbie Ray (LHP, SEA) | 2-1 | 4.19 | 4.63 | 4.54 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 8.9% | 46.6% | 43.1% |
7:08 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Eric Lauer (LHP, MIL) | 1-0 | 3.48 | 4.13 | 3.84 | 3.38 | 23.3% | 7.0% | 33.3% | 60.7% | ||||||||
Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) | 1-2 | 5.52 | 3.27 | 2.75 | 3.35 | 25.8% | 6.5% | 41.0% | 28.9% |
Best of luck today 💪