In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Last week had a wide array of game totals for our hitters. However, this week, which is championship week for several leagues, things get more uniform. For starters, 16 teams play six games, while 12 teams have seven games on the docket. Also, as you’ll see in the target section, two teams are scheduled for a week-high eight games. We have a few teams with wrap-around series concluding on the first day of this penultimate week of the 2022 season.
Minnesota will wrap up its series in Cleveland before moving on to Kansas City. Seattle closes a four-game set in Anaheim before heading to Oaktown. All of this gives our respective hitters a full week over the standard six (or even five) games, which provides an important edge at this late stage of the game. I was planning on starting Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher (@MIN), this week when mapping out my playoff run, but after looking at the hitter schedule with potential pitchers, I’m sliding him back to the offense. We’ll discuss more about the Halos below.
Five-Game Week: NONE!
A Few Areas to Target
Eight Ball, Corner Pocket
For the LA Dodgers, they have already sunk their eight ball. They’ve clinched the NL West and have a comfortable lead for first place in the NL. So, they’ll probably rest some of their regulars. However, with eight games to play (ARI – 5, STL – 3), somebody has to take the field! I’d still start Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman. Why? Cause we’re not dumb. But, daily league players should be hip to their daily lineups. Because, with a mix of three left-handed starters and five right-handed starters, players like Chris Taylor (57% rostered in redraft, 78% dynasty), Joey Gallo (45%, 60%) and Trayce Thompson (2%, 10%) can be streamed when they get the playing time.
The Dodgers’ partner in the five-game set is the Arizona Diamondbacks (@LAD – 5, SF – 3). I have a lot more interest here as the D-backs are the antithesis of LA. Their playoff chances are well-cooked, yet there are a lot of exciting young bats looking to make an impression for 2023. Several of these players are lefties, however, and Arizona will see an even split of four left-handed and four right-handed starters. Still, Corbin Carroll (16%, 71%) and Jake McCarthy (48%, 70%) will have their opportunities to do some damage. Also, Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Josh Rojas are good options this week.
Last Dance
The Rockies are at Coors Field for their final seven home games of the season (SF – 4, SD – 3). They travel to San Francisco for three before concluding their campaign with a weird-ass six-game series at Dodger Stadium. So, this is our “Last Dance” for playing Colorado batters in their hitter-friendly stadium. Furthermore, they’ll face up to six right-handed starters (if you count a John Brebbia bullpen game). Love me some Ryan McMahon this week after he’s concluding a .300/.333/.650 scoring period with two homes, three extra-base hits and four runs scored. Michael Toglia (3%, 32%) remains on our radar this week after flushing the toilet last week. Some home cooking should do the 24-year-old 1B/OF well. And this could also be our ‘Last Dance with Charlie Blackmon‘… as a fantasy starter.
Road Warriors
Building off our previous discussion, after hosting Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners, the Angels will hit the road for six straight, starting in Texas. While Martín Pérez may be on some undetectable drug causing a breakout season at 31 (kidding), Cole Ragans and Dane Dunning don’t instill fear in anyone. These Holy Road Warriors conclude their week in scenic Minnesota, facing Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy. There is talent in Gray and Ryan’s arms, but these are not matchups to shy away from if playing Ohtani (see above) or streaming other hitters such as Luis Rengifo (13%, 47%), Matt Duffy (<1%, 6%) and Mickey Moniak (<1%, 12%). As the grid shows, LA will face five RHP of the seven opposing starts, which is great news for Ohtani and Moniak.
For the Land
Cleveland is in the second-tightest divisional battle, so there is a lot on the line for these Guardians. They’ll get the aforementioned wrap-around game with the Twins before hitting the road for three with the Pale Hose and three with the Rangers. Cleveland will face challenging starting pitching – i.e. Sonny Gray, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, and Jon Gray, albeit in a smaller workload – but Lucas Giolito, Glenn Otto and Cole Ragans present good matchups. With six of seven righties, Andrés Giménez and Steven Kwan are stellar options. In addition, Oscar Gonzalez (19%, 50%) is a quality streamer for 12-team leagues and higher, especially if your league plays five outfielders. In 169 plate appearances since 8/2, he’s hit seven home runs, 13 doubles, and scored 15 runs while driving in 22 with one stolen base. All told, he has a .310 batting average for the period.
No Way, Shohei!
Okay, Mr. MVP is a running theme so far in this article, so I’m just gonna go with it. As stated, Minnesota will encounter the two-way sensation on the mound this week. But otherwise, the pitching schedule is quite good.
- Cal Quantrill
- Zack Greinke
- Daniel Lynch
- Jonathan Heasley
- Shohei Ohtani
- Reid Detmers
- José Suarez
The three lefties, along with seven games in tow, raise the appeal of article streaming favorite Jose Miranda (34%, 87%) as well as Gio Urshela (22%, 65%) in 15-team leagues. The latter is raging right now with his seven-day .440/.500/.600 slash line.
Hot Rod
Milwaukee (NYM – 3, @CIN – 4) is due to face at least five RH starters this week. It is also hard to ignore those four games at Great American Ball Park, which has been tops on our Statcast Park Factor Leaderboard for the better part of the season, even besting mighty Coors Field 152-to-114 in HR factors. Roll the dice on Rowdy Tellez this week, just don’t eat a big meal before you step behind the wheel, as he’s a batting-average tanker!
Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
San Fran will face six righties this week, including three at Coors Field (@COL – 4, @ARI – 3). Joc Pederson (59%, 82%) has been sucking the proverbial nut, slashing .091/.167/.091 over the last seven days. However, this is a get-right week! He has 20 home runs with a .273 batting average against RHP (328 PA). What’s more, Joc has hit nine home runs at Coors alongside six doubles and one triple in his career. Don’t get too cute by trying to throw LaMonte Wade Jr. or Mike Yastrzemski into a stack. These limp bats will only sink your playoff chances. However, Thairo Estrada (56%, 74%) regularly plays against lefties and righties and contributes in all categories – 13 HR, 19 SB, 63 R, 55 RBI, .263/.321/.406. Best of all, he qualifies at SS/2B/MI/OF.
Other B.O.G.S.: CHC (@MIA – 3, @PIT – 4; 6 RH Opposing Starters) – My top stream is Zach McKinstry (<1%, 7%). He’s been hitting leadoff while playing shortstop for Nico HoernerDTD. Plus, McKinstry’s streaking like Will Farrell in ‘Old School.’ Over the last seven days, he has 5 XBH, 2 HR and a .391/.391/.870 slash line. He also has 2B/3B/OF eligibility in most leagues.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*As of 9/16/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Max Scherzer2 (@MIL, @OAK)
- Corbin Burnes5 (NYM, @CIN)
- Dylan Cease6 (CLE, DET)
- Carlos Rodón13 (
@COL, @ARI) ⬅️ Rodón’s next start will be moved to 9/23 against the Diamondbacks due to a blister and cracked nail on his left hand, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. - Luis Castillo20 (@OAK, @KC)
- Kyle Wright21 (WSH, @PHI)
- Shane McClanahan22 (HOU, TOR)
- Charlie Morton27 (WSH, @PHI)
- Sonny Gray28 (@CLE,
LAA) ⬅️ IL & likely done for season - Tyler Anderson31 (ARI,
STL) ⬅️ Michael GroveNR (ARI, STL), who split a doubleheader with Anderson on 9/20, will instead take the second turn. Anderson gets extra rest and moves back to 9/27 in SD. - Merrill Kelly34 (@LAD, SF)
- Clayton Kershaw36 (ARI, STL)
- Logan Gilbert39 (@LAA, @KC)
- Adam Wainwright40 (@SD, @LAD)
- Nestor Cortes46 (PIT, BOS)
- Edward Cabrera47 (CHC, WSH)
- Luis Garcia49 (@TB,
@BAL) ⬅️ Cristian Javier29 (@TB, @BAL) will start on 9/25, pushing Garcia to next week.
*Our top 2 two-steppers will square off to begin the week unless Milauwkee opts to throw a bullpen game to keep Burnes on five days’ rest. Either way, Burnes should see two starts at the greatest time. And speaking of just in the nick of time, Scherzer will come off the injured list after throwing a successful rehab outing on 9/14 and feeling healthy afterward. Both aces have fabulous matchups for our pursuit of championship glory! – Tyler Anderson is out on Paternity leave as of this writing. He presumably will return either 9/19 or 9/20 with Clayton Kershaw picking up the other day and a two-step, as well.
Other Options: Drew Rasmussen53 (HOU, TOR), Mike Clevinger61 (STL, @COL), Kyle Gibson68 (TOR, ATL), Cal Quantrill76 (MIN, @TEX), Aaron Civale78 (@CHW, @TEX), Austin Voth82 (DET, HOU)
*Tough two-step for Gibby, but Kyle could “lose out” on his second start if Philly opts to roll a six-man rotation by keeping promising Bailey Falter in the fold. Civale is set to return from the IL and may find himself two starts if Cleveland goes with a five-man rotation. He normally would be ranked a little higher, but he only went 2.2 innings in his last rehab start (on top of giving up four earned on seven hits) and will be on a workload restriction. He did have five strikeouts, however. And if you wanna ride with Voth cause you’re in “Balls to the Wall” mode, I’m here for it. Great first matchup, plus he had a good start versus Houston on 8/28 in a losing effort (6 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K).
Danger Zone: Dylan Bundy97 (@KC, LAA), Drey JamesonNR (@LAD, SF), JP Sears106 (SEA, NYM), Jakob Junis122 (@COL, @ARI), Kyle Freeland129 & Chad KuhlNR (SF, SD), Wade Miley131 & Adrian SampsonNR (@MIA, @PIT), Tyler WellsIL (DET, HOU), Zack GreinkeNR (MIN, SEA), Cole RagansNR (LAA, CLE), Cory AbbottNR (@ATL, @MIA), Tyler AlexanderNR (@BAL, @CHW), Luis OrtizNR (@NYY, CHC)
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 19 – 25
*UPDATE: Cueto (illness) will pitch on 9/22 vs. CLE, while Giolito (for the second week in a row) will be pushed from facing CLE to pitching against DET. I saw this last part happening and was gonna jot a note about it when I published article, but I missed the bus lol. (9/20) Josiah Gray moves to 9/23 @MIA, and Wacha goes to New York to face the Yankees with Connor Seabold spot start. (9/21) Joe Musgrove moves up to face STL & avoids Coors Field! Also, Syndergaard will piggyback Wheeler through the next two turns.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Frankie Montas – DTD, Shoulder Discomfort
Montas experienced shoulder discomfort during his outing against the Brewers in Milwaukee on 9/16, which prompted an MRI for the extent of the damage. Meredith Marakovits of YES Network reports Montas “won’t make his next start on normal rest.” Whether he lands on the injured list remains to be seen, but at the very least, he’ll require extra days of rest before his next start. Domingo Germán would pitch in Montas’ stead if a trip to the IL is necessary. Germán was sent to the pen with Luis Severino (right lat strain) returning to the rotation on 9/21. His final rehab start line was 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB and 6 K.
Ozzie Albies – DTD (Soon to be IL), Right Pinky Finger Fracture
Tragic! Albies, who was playing in his second game since returning from a three-month stint on the injured list due to a fractured left foot, fractured his right pinky finger while sliding headfirst into second base on 9/17. Albies will miss the remainder of the regular season. Vaughn Grissom gets his starting role back.
Eugenio Suárez – 10-day IL, Right Index Finger Fracture (9/17)
Suárez is to see a specialist on 9/19, and he said he’s hoping to return to the lineup before the end of the regular season, even if it’s just in a DH capacity. He injured the finger on a defensive play during his game against the Angels on 9/16. Initially, he stayed in the game, but the finger began to swell, making it hard to grip the bat. Throwing will be the last skill that is regained, so DH makes sense. However, if you are in the last week of your fantasy season, it is safe to drop him.
To make matters worse, for Seattle and one of my championship-bound teams, Julio Rodríguez was a late scratch from the lineup on 9/17 due to lower back tightness. My Julio/Eugenio mini-stack was going off like gangbusters, but thanks to Ray’s FAAB Values, I’ll be dropping Suárez for Elvis Andrus.
Trevor Rogers – DTD, Left Lat Discomfort
Rogers was pulled from his last start after hitting 91 mph on the gun with poorly located fastballs… no bueno😓 Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports it was indeed due to a lat injury, and Rogers could be shut down with the Marlins out of contention.
Ryan Mountcastle – DTD, Left Elbow Contusion
The worst was avoided when Mountcastle was hit by a pitch in his game on 9/17 yet had X-rays come back clean. The medical team will reevaluate on 9/18 to determine if he will miss any time.
Updates on Zack Wheeler and Eric Lauer…
Wheeler (right forearm tendinitis) threw a successful live up-and-down bullpen session on 9/16, and the Phillies are set to activate him off the IL for a home start against the Blue Jays on 9/21. As for Lauer (left forearm), he threw a successful 30-pitch bullpen on 9/17 and is on track to return as soon as 9/23 when first eligible. He’ll likely need another bullpen or two to be cleared, which has me thinking he’ll return on 9/24 so he has adequate time. “I’d prefer to go full-bore right away,” Lauer said. “We’ll see what I can do. Conditioning-wise, I’m all good. I didn’t need to make up any ground after getting hurt. I should be able to go and throw 100 pitches.” Somewhere, Brewers manager Craig Counsell just gulped.
Lastly, Jorge Polanco was pulled from a rehab game at Triple-A St. Paul due to knee discomfort, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Nick Lodolo57, LH CIN (BOS, MIL; 30% rostered in redraft, 81% dynasty) – I feel like this recommendation is a given almost didn’t list Lodolo here, figuring he’d be over the roster threshold. To my surprise, Lefty Nick is available in 70% of common redraft leagues. He may be long rostered in yours. But if he isn’t because of the matchups, don’t be like others in your league who are living in the past. Red Sox hitters are already scheduling tee times for their offseason, and despite the Brewers vying for a Wild Card spot, they’ve been struggling on offense. Milwaukee has had the seventh-highest strikeout rate over the last month (24.8%). Furthermore, while their team ISO has been a respectable .174, they’re just not getting on base with regularity (.313 wOBA). As a result, their league-average 100 wRC+ is mid-pack and mediocre.
While Lodolo has had his ups and down and struggled with control at times, he has been flat-out awesome of late, allowing just five runs and 13 hits over his last 20 1/3 innings (three starts) while striking out 31 batters. If you need a boost in strikeouts, it is hard to imagine a better option right now. UPDATE: With a crushing blow, CIN (in their infinite wisdom) opts to keep Luis Cessa in rotation. So, with Graham Ashcraft’s IL return (starting 9/24), Lodolo’s second start goes bye-bye. Instead, he will pitch on 9/26 @PIT. Damn you, Reds! Damn you for doing the right thing and protecting arms in a lost season. We don’t get fantasy points for that! Hopefully, you can utilize him next week. With Mike Minor now on the IL, we can rejoice!!!
Honorable Mentions: Ross Stripling58, RH TOR (PHI, @TB; 45%, 76%), José Suarez81, LH LAA (SEA, @MIN; 10%, 56%), Brayan Bello127, RH BOS (@CIN, @NYY; 3%, 43%) – Listing a shallow-league stream and some deep-league options, depending on your league type. Strip has a 2.45 ERA over the last month and a 2.94 mark for the season. He’s a high-floor guy to even out any other risks you may be taking this week. One of those risks may be Bello. Yet, he’s showing flashes of his pedigree of late, which bodes well for his stock next draft season. Much like Lodolo above, Bello too can provide a boost in Ks. Over his last three starts, the 23-year-old has lasted 16.1 innings while allowing just three runs and striking out 18.
Solo Start: Bailey Ober120, RH MIN (@KC; 39%, 59%) – Now healthy after missing months of action, Ober had little rust in his first start since May versus Cleveland (5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K). He controls the strike zone well (5.0% career BB rate), gives up soft contact, and possesses a .253 BAA. This translates to a pitcher who can be an asset to your team’s WHIP total down the stretch. A mountain of a man, standing at 6’9” 260 lbs, Ober creates tough angles for hitters to pick up his 83 mph slider, which has been an effective pitch for generating whiffs and putting batters away.
This matches up well against his lowly opponent Kansas City Royals. There are some fresh faces since May. But Ober has a 10.13 K/9 and 1.25 WHIP vs. KC this year in two starts. Also interested in Joey WentzNR, LH DET (@BAL; <1%, 16%).
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!