MLB Weekly Preview: September 12 – 18

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: OAK SHIFTS TO 2 L / 4 R (FWIW)

NOTES: We have a weird week in the AL East with two teams playing eight games, while the other three play five. The top of the grid looks like a Christmas tree, which gives the feeling of a local shop putting out decorations the second Halloween is over. Stop rushing my life! Anywho, we see the last few remnants of the “Lockout Effect” as we have a few remaining five-game series to make-up games. All total, there will be five doubleheaders (TEX @ MIA – 9/12, TB @ TOR – 9/13, PIT @ CIN – 9/13, MIN @ CLE – 9/17, CIN @ STL – 9/17). Five teams will play eight games this week. Six teams will play seven games, while eleven teams will play six. A massive seven teams will have a couple of off-days with five contests on their weekly schedule, and one team has an overwhelming nine games on the docket!

This is a challenging time for most of us. We are in the thick of a playoff run or fending off challengers for our top spots in categories. Also, most of us have been fine-tuning our fantasy football rosters for Week 1. However, I have some good news! After a couple of weeks searching for edges, the targets are bountiful this week and just in the nick of time! Similar to the movie of the same name, brighter days are ahead… for fantasy managers and Johnny Depp.

Five-Game Week: BAL, NYY, BOS, SEA, WSH, MIL, COL

A Few Areas to Target

Star Stros
The Houston Astros play seven games this week (@DET – 3, OAK – 4) and will have fairly good pitching matchups. The volume is a huge boost for our stars, but if you “want a little taste of the title,” there are secondary pieces for the sniping. First, Jeremy Peña (42% rostered in redraft, 83% dynasty) could be floating in your waiver pool. Dating back to 8/30, Pena has hits in nine of 10 games, including four multi-hit affairs. Secondly, Chas McCormick (<1%, 21%) is worth a look in leagues as shallow as 12-team formats with five outfielders and a utility spot. The player I’m most excited about this week is Trey Mancini! Houston is likely to face four left-handed starting pitchers (btw, this helps Peña & McCormick too). Plus, it just so happens that all three hitters bat consecutively in the order. #StroStack

Lucky Seven
We have a ton of targets to get to with the bevy of 8+ game schedules, so I’m gonna rattle off some seven-game teams in good situations: Twins (KC – 3, @CLE – 4) / Cardinals homestand (MIL – 2, CIN – 5) / Diamondbacks homestand (LAD – 3, SD – 4). The team I will highlight here is the Mets (CHC – 3, PIT – 4). “Boo, Pov… homer move!” I hear ya, but they do play all of their games in the cozy confines of Citi Field. Their offense has been slightly better on the road, but it’s the pitching matchups that have me all randy. 

• Hayden Wesneski (Not Confirmed)
• Javier Assad
• Adrian Sampson
• JT Brubaker
• Mitch Keller
• Bryse Wilson
• Johan Oviedo

That’s all righties, and we know by now how much the numbers favor my Metropolitan when facing RHP (Team BA 28 points higher). Moreover, the bullpens are atrocious! Chicago is seventh-worst in BP ERA with a 4.36. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh is third-worst (4.66).

Guardians of the Galaxy
Our scrappy Clevelanders play eight games at home this week (LAA – 3, CHW – 1, MIN – 4). I like the pitching matchups for the most part, although LAA will throw three lefties at the Guardians to begin the week (.102 ISO, last in the split; .279 wOBA, next-to-last). However, they put the ball in play against them, with only a 21.0% strikeout rate (11^th-best). Therefore, managers should start their Cleveland hitters with confidence. Even fringe starters Amed Rosario and Josh Naylor (52%, 74%) are in play this week. 

Lefty Platoon
Tampa Bay is another team who plays eight games this week (@TOR – 5, TEX – 3), and this presents some interesting options. For starters, Yandy Diaz has been fire over the last week, stroking three multi-hit games and a .389/.500/.444 slash. Ride that hot bat! Additionally, Manuel Margot (17%, 64%) is an everyday player who can set the table for this lineup. The batting average has been in the pooper since his return from the injured list, but those chasing and needing the volume can go this route. However, it is the lefty bats of Brandon Lowe (65%, 90%) and David Peralta (14%, 46%) who intrigue me more. The Rays are scheduled to face seven righty mound-dwellers this week.

Look, I get it. Lowe has been underwhelming this season, and that’s being nice. As a result, he’s been cut loose in many leagues and can be treated as a speculative add, hoping he returns to his previous form and finishes the regular season with a flurry. As for Peralta, he’s been picking up steam in a part-time role. He should see the lion’s share of starts in left field this week, especially with his .270/.332/.808 slash line and 11 long flies in the split. Fire up the lefty platoon!

North of the Border
The Blue Jays play eight games at home this week (TB – 5, BAL – 3). Their potent offense has been led by resurgent Bo Bichette, who is lighting the world on fire over the last month with a .338/.382/.641 slash line, nine home runs, 25 runs scored and 29 driven in alongside 2/4 in stolen bases. As a result, the lineup as a whole has had more stability. He’s the spark to their high-octane machine. Not many options are available to stream, but the Jays need to be listed here based on their voluminous week. Jam in your Blue Jays’ hitters!

O Canada
While being home all week presents advantages for Toronto, our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Players who are not vaccinated can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game. First, for the Rays, “reliever Brooks Raley appears to be the only unvaccinated Ray who won’t be allowed to play in Toronto (with Ryan Thompson on the injured list),” according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Secondly, for the Orioles, we established in Week 20 that their 40-man roster is vaccinated. So, we gucci this week!

Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
Lots of streaming opportunities this week from the low-brow teams! To begin, Cincinnati plays a week-high nine games with two doubleheaders on the docket (PIT – 4, @STL – 5). Jonathan India (72%, 94%) hasn’t added any value with stolen bases, but he’s hit for average with power in the second half. TJ Friedl (10%, 35%) is playing over his head, but we are here for it! Finally, Jake Fraley (10%, 48%) is also a thrifty streamer in 14-team mixed leagues or larger. Both Friedl and Fraley will have favorable matchups in terms of handedness. The Reds are set to face six starting righties to three lefties. The lefty count could even be two if St. Louis doesn’t call upon Matthew Liberatore to start as the 29^th man in their doubleheader. As a result, the F & F boys should see more playing time.

Geez, Louise, I’m running out of puns! It’s a long season!!

Other B.O.G.S.: Rangers (@MIA – 2 (DH), OAK – 2, @TB – 3), Marlins (TEX – 2 (DH), PHI – 3, @WSH – 3), Pirates (@CIN – 4, @NYM – 4; 2 L / 6 R)… Gotta love Oneil Cruz (31%, 90%) this week with the handedness split. Eleven of his 14 HRs have come off right-handed pitchers, and his batting average increases by 57 points. That’s good for an ISO of .260 and wOBA of .345 in the split. Finally, his wRC+ vs. righties is a cool 121! With a max exit velocity (Max EV) of 122.4 mph, no one in baseball hits the ball harder (100^th percentile according to Baseball Savant). 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*As of 9/3/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
Now six months into using a humidor at every park, we are seeing a larger majority of stadiums hovering around the mean. So I guess mission accomplished? Warmer months are having an effect too, and I still think northern teams shouldn’t use humidors until June.

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Sandy Alcantara¹ (PHI, @WSH)
2. Jacob deGrom² (CHC, PIT)
3. Gerrit Cole³ (@BOS, @MIL) ⬅️ Now official with Domingo Germán in the pen and Luis Severino’s probable return on 9/21.
4. Corbin Burnes⁴ (@STL, NYY) ⬅️ MIL going with an opener/primary pitcher on 9/13, pushing everyone back.
5. Framber Valdez⁸ (@DET, OAK) ⬅️ HOU opts to flip Valdez and Hunter Brown in the rotation to give the two-start week to Valdez (which is nice for the playoff push). Both arms are working on extra days’ rest, which makes this strategic move possible.
6. Yu Darvish¹³ (@SEA, @ARI)
7. Chris Bassitt¹⁷ (CHC, PIT)
8. Alek Manoah²¹ (TB, BAL)
9. Tyler Anderson²⁸ (@ARI, @ SF)
10. Spencer Strider³⁰ (@SF, PHI)
11. Jordan Montgomery³¹ (MIL, CIN)
12. Merrill Kelly³² (LAD, SD) ⬅️ ARI opts for six-man during busy stretch; promotes Drey Jameson.
13. Alex Cobb⁴⁸ (ATL, LAD)
14. Joe Ryan⁵³ (KC, @CLE)

*Very challenging matchups for Kelly and Cobb, but I believe in these arms.

Other Options: Jeffrey Springs⁵⁷ (@TOR, TEX), Nick Pivetta⁶⁷ (NYY, KC), Dean Kremer⁶⁹ (@WSH, @TOR), José Berríos⁷⁵ (TB, BAL)

*UPDATE: Springs will pick up a second start with Patino sent down.

Danger Zone: Eduardo Rodriguez⁸² (HOU, CHW), Ken Waldichuk⁹⁴ (@TEX, @HOU), Reid Detmers⁹⁹ (@CLE, SEA), Glenn Otto¹⁰² & Jon Gray¹²⁴ (@MIA, @TB), Michael Kopech^IL (COL, @DET), Bailey Falter¹¹⁹ (@MIA, @ATL), Jon Gray¹²⁴ (@MIA, @TB), Drew Hutchison¹⁴⁰ (HOU, CHW), Javier Assad¹⁴⁸ (@NYM, COL), Bryse Wilson¹⁴⁹ & Johan Oviedo^NR (@CIN, @NYM), Cody Morris^NR (LAA, MIN), Ryne Nelson^NR (LAD, SD), Kris Bubic^NR (@MIN, @BOS), Mike Minor^NR & Luis Cessa^NR (PIT, @STL)

*Kopech is interesting here. The matchups are great, but he has been fighting the regression monster all year and just getting back into the swing of things from his IL stint. Kopech was one out shy of four innings in his return and gave up four runs in Seattle. Let’s face facts; he was struggling before the injury, so I’m sitting this one out. He’s a special arm, but this has not been a special year for the 26-year-old right-hander. Also, Gray is back in our lives but on a limited workload, and Falter could lose his spot if Zack Wheeler returns ahead of schedule (see IL Report below).

UPDATE: Assad picks up a second start unless CHC still intends on using Hayden Wesneski as a spot starter later in the week (originally reported to be making spot start on 9/12). Combo outcome: Wesneski will make SS on 9/17, but Assad keeps second start by Wade Miley being pushed to 9/19. Assad looked good against NYM and is stream-worthy for COL. (9/17) Kopech is likely done for the season with shoulder inflammation, especially if CHW fall out of the playoff hunt. He would only make one start anyway and is beyond his innings limit (injury most likely as a result).

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 12 – 18

*Mike Soroka may return this week after 2+ years on the shelf. Soroka made a start for Triple-A Gwinnett on 9/9 but gave up three runs on three hits and two walks with three strikeouts. A step back from his previous start (4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K). Still, his next start looks to be with the Bravos as they move back to a six-man rotation. I have him penciled in for 9/14 @SF with Charlie Morton pushed to 9/16 v PHI for some extra rest. UPDATE: It appears I was wrong about Soroka. Morton will pitch against SF on 9/14. Also, Clevinger will move up on normal rest to face Seattle. Dustin May gets pushed back to 9/16 @SF (extra rest). Lynn (@CLE) and Giolito (@DET) will swap spots in the rotation. Mckenzie’s start moves to MIN w/ Hunter Gaddis’ spot start.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Shohei Ohtani – DTD (as a pitcher), Blister
Ohtani had to come out of his last start due to a blister forming on his right index finger. He remained in the game as the DH and was back in the lineup again on 9/11 as a hitter, so it obviously isn’t affecting his hitter prowess. It is unknown if the blister will affect his next start, which is tentatively scheduled for 9/17 vs. SEA. Probably wise to start him as a hitter in weekly-lock leagues. 

Anthony Rizzo – 10-day IL, Head/Back
Rizzo returned to Yankee Stadium on 9/10, telling manager Aaron Boone that he felt much better after having a blood patch administered the day before. Rizzo had been dealing with migraines following a recent epidural injection to treat pain in his lower back. He is expected to resume baseball activities on 9/11 and could be active during the Sept. 16-19 series against the Brewers… In other Yankee injury news, Aroldis Chapman (left leg infection) will make a Minor League rehab appearance for Double-A Somerset on 9/11. Also, the team has decided to have Luis Severino (right lat strain) make one more Minor League rehab start before activating him for a 9/21 start against the Pirates.

Shane McClanahan – 15-day IL, Left Shoulder Impingement
McClanahan will likely make his return from the IL by starting the series finale in Toronto on 9/15. Despite the competition, I’m getting him right back into my lineup!

Starling Marte – 10-day IL, Right Middle Finger Fracture (Retro 9/7)
Wave it proud, Marte! New York finally made a decision on the status of Marte this weekend, placing him on the shelf. He should return when first eligible since the fracture is nondisplaced, meaning there’s a crack, but the finger remains in place. For example, Francisco Lindor dealt with a similar injury earlier in the year when a hotel room door slammed his finger. Lindor only missed one game, but his fracture was at the tip, while Marte’s is more in the shaft – wait, what are we talking about here lol. Anywho, it’s a pain threshold thing, and Marte is obviously in more pain based on the location. He was not able to engage in baseball activities this past weekend. As a result, New York called up No. 7 prospect Mark Vientos, who made his MLB debut on 9/11.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain (Retro 9/8)
Gurriel was placed on the 10-day IL with what the Blue Jays have described as a “moderate” left hamstring strain, sustained running out a ground ball on 9/7. Manager John Schneider indicated that the injury may sideline Gurriel beyond the 10 days.

Freddy Peralta / Eric Lauer – 15-day IL, Right Shoulder Fatigue / Left Elbow Inflammation (Lauer’s Designation Retro 9/8)
Peralta hits the IL with right shoulder fatigue after leaving his 9/8 start in the third inning. Manager Craig Counsell expressed optimism about the possibility that Peralta could return this season. Lauer’s designation is a bit more of a surprise since he was only going to skip a start due to positive MRI results. Now, it will be at least two starts as there is no indication of how long he’ll be out. 

Zack Wheeler – 15-day IL, Forearm Tendinitis
Wheeler played catch from 90 feet on 9/8 without feeling anything in his right elbow and forearm, and he increased the distance to 120 feet the following day. Interim manager Rob Thomson said there is a scenario where Wheeler rejoins the rotation for next week’s road trip through Miami and Atlanta without making a rehab appearance in Triple-A. However, an activation on 9/20 vs. TOR is more probable. 

Finally, we have most likely seen the last of Kris Bryant this season. While Bryant could still return, the Rockies are not counting on it, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Forty-two games played; $18 million earned. That’s $428,571.43 a game. If we round out games to three hours, that’s $142,857.14 an hour. Of course, a professional baseball player applies many more hours, but you get my point. As a once young, aspiring ballplayer, I ask, why did my knees go so early?

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Hunter Brown⁸⁰, RH HOU (@DET, OAK; 14% rostered in redraft, 55% dynasty) – As many of you are familiar, especially those who hang in Discord, Brown is the No. 71 ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline and 86 on Fangraphs but is No. 1 with the Stros and in your hearts this week. He was great in his first MLB start against Texas (6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K) and is lined up for favorable matchups this week. We could lose the OAK start, especially if Justin Verlander is deemed fit to return after throwing a successful bullpen on 9/9, but I expect the Stros to hold out Verly a little longer to make sure he’s good for the playoffs.

Before his call-up, Brown was on fire in Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 11.38 K/9 rate in 23 appearances (14 GS) with the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. The 24-year-old right-hander has 96 mph heat (rated 65 on the 20-80 prospect scale) along with a curveball (65) and slider (55) that more than plays in the majors. UPDATE: Whelp, that was fast. HOU opts to flip Framber Valdez and Brown in the rotation to give the two-start week to Valdez. Both arms are working on extra days’ rest, which makes this strategic move possible. Stinks for those of us who wanted two starts from Brown, but we were already wary, and the DET start is still aces.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Rogers⁸¹, LH MIA (TEX, @WSH; 55%, 83%) – Rogers is coming off two straight quality starts since returning from the IL, including eight punchies in six innings of work versus Philadelphia in his last trip to the bump. This time around, his adversaries are juicier despite Texas having some meat in their order and the Nats’ rediscovered offense with the youth movement (although, I like the Park Factors!). If not for these last facts, you may have seen Rogers’ name listed alongside Brown’s. I like both of these arms this week and have them both currently ready to stream on my respective teams… and so should you!

Solo Start: Drew Smyly⁵⁹, LH CHC (@NYM; 9%, 47%), Michael Wacha⁷¹, RH BOS (KC; 70%, 84%) – I have Wacha here JIC he is available in your league. UPDATE: Smyly moves up to face the Mets (see update in two-start section). New matchup does lower him in my eyes but not enough to avoid. As mentioned in my target section, New York struggles against lefties with a team BA 28 points lower. They handled Luzardo yesterday, and it helps with Eduardo Escobar raging hot and moving Mark Canha up in the order, but Pete Alonso has been terrible against lefties (.234 BA / .798 OPS), and Starling Marte is on the shelf.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, September 18, 2022
*Not Confirmed