In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: You blink, and it’s September baseball… Down the stretch and hunting for a Fantasy Baseball Championship. This week will keep us on our toes with a multifarious schedule of games. Blue Jays and Orioles share a twin bill and a week-leading eight games on the docket. Ten teams play a full seven games (Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies, Yankees, Royals, Twins and the soon-to-be Guardians), while San Diego and Arizona play a week low five games. We have two wrap-around series, resulting in a solo matchup to lead off the week for Angels/Rangers and Nationals/Mets.
With September baseball comes an outpouring of asterisks in our grid (nine in total this week). As a reminder, these are to be treated like a ½ when setting our offensive lineups since they indicate the handedness of the opposing pitcher involves a tandem start, bullpen game or opener. It’s no surprise we are seeing more of these occurrences this season based on the low amount of innings pitchers had in 2020 plus the rash of injuries/COVID cases this year. While this should stabilize in 2022, I expect to see the strategy of tandem starts continue to grow just as other ways of life have shifted to a “new normal.” In fact, I’ve been on record stating that in 5-10 years, the starting pitcher (or roles in general) will become OBSOLETE. It will be interesting to see how the Fantasy Baseball industry adapts.
Here are specific examples for the week at hand. If Ross Stripling can return from the IL later this week (may only require one rehab start), I expect Nate Pearson and him to pitch in tandem for the second game of the doubleheader against Baltimore on 9/11. In turn, the Jays may face Alexander Wells in a bulk capacity following an opener. Same goes for the Royals when they play Baltimore earlier in the week. KC is also scheduled to face the tandem of Bailey Ober/Michael Pineda if Minnesota opts to keep this plan moving forward (more on this in Top Two-Start Pitchers), but Cleveland will for sure on 9/6.
In the NL, Mets have an asterisk in the righty column if Yankees continue to use Corey Kluber (R) and Andrew Heaney (L) in tandem for the Subway Series. Cubs will face the mess that is the San Fran rotation (thanks COVID) and are bound to face an opener in a BP game later this week. Finally, Colorado will face the healthy portion of San Fran’s rotation (Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani). However, when facing Philadelphia later in the week, expect them to see a BP game with expanded September rosters and Matt Moore shifting to the pen to provide multi-inning relief.
A Few Areas to Target
Ride the Hot Hand
Dodgers have been an elite offense all season long. This is not news. But to highlight, they have the eighth-highest ISO (.179), sixth-highest wOBA (.325) and fifth-highest wRC+ (106). We already know they are one of ten teams to play a full seven games (@STL – 4, SD – 3). But wait, there’s more! Dodgers are projected to face such targetable pitchers as Miles Mikolas, J.A. Happ, Kwang Hyun Kim and Jake Arrieta. Busch Stadium (0.917 R, 0.831 HR) plays more to the pitcher, and they do face a revitalized Adam Wainwright. However, their home park favors the hitter this year (0.905 R, 1.128 HR), especially at night, when the air is “less heavy” and the ball carries. Two of the three games are at night. I love LA.
Do You Know What They Call Twinkies in Mexico? “Los Submarinos”
“Believe it or not, Twinkies have an expiration date.” But Jorge Polanco is waving his middle finger in the air like he just don’t care and having a remarkable year in his age-28 season. Setting new career highs in home runs (26) and runs batted in (82), all while hitting .280 with a .845 OPS (another career-high). Not too shabby from the middle infielder position. Minnesota will face five of seven right-handed pitchers this week, and Polanco has shown more power as a LHH vs. RHP – 19 HR, .528 SLG, .241 ISO. Max Kepler, Luis Arraez and even Nick Gordon in deeper leagues are in more favorable positions due to the split, as well.
Continue to Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
In particular, the O’s will not only play eight games with a Saturday doubleheader, but all of their games come at hitter-friendly Camden Yards (1.088 R, 1.262 HR). They are slated to face KC for four games and the aforementioned Blue Jays for four as well. At 42-92 on the season, the O’s are in position to play the spoiler role for a Toronto team that is trying to climb back into the Wild Card race. I always look to stream players from bottom-of-the-barrel teams towards season end. If you grab the right players – ones who are vying for a job in 2022 or playing for statistical incentives this season – you can get a boon in your matchups. Look for Baltimore to fit this mold and play spoiler down the stretch.
Other Bad Offenses to Look At: Royals, Rockies, Cleveland against all RHP
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. The biggest choice this week when it comes to interleague play will be what to do with Shohei.
The Halos play six games this week, including this two-game set in San Diego. It would appear this only leaves four games worth of ABs for Ohtani. However, he is projected by FanGraphs to start in the second game at San Diego, which would mean he could bat for himself as the starting pitcher. So five games make him playable as a hitter, right? Wrong. Let me tell you, due to many times this year being wrong about when Ohtani would take the bump, there is NO FUCKING WAY manager Joe Maddon pitches him on four days rest, especially with the team well out of playoff position. As you can see in the starting pitcher matchup rankings below, I project Ohtani to face the Astros in Houston. Horrible matchup, which makes him less attractive as a pitcher to boot.
So, it comes down to 4+ games of ABs vs. a bad matchup. I decided to start him as a pitcher this week since he’s been dominant with the split-finger fastball, a pitch Houston does poorly against. Fingers crossed!
D’backs are livin’ La Vida Loca with an all interleague week, albeit only five games. We’ve been riding a favorable schedule and good matchups with these desert nomads, but the time to jump off is nigh. Not even three games with a DH will get me to bite.
Rivalry Series: Subway
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
EXPECT FEWER OPTIONS ROS AS MORE TEAMS GO SIX-MAN
- Max Scherzer2 (@STL, SD)
Brandon Woodruff4 (PHI, @CLE) ← Usually, the fantasy gods take two starts away, but this week, we may just get one added, and it’s a BIG one!Milauwkee won’t push Woody and will start Lauer instead for second start. Makes sense, whaw!- Gerrit Cole6 (TOR,
@NYM) ← Will be pushed to 9/14 due to hamstring tightness; monitor health - Zack Wheeler9 (@MIL, COL)
- Kevin Gausman10 (@COL, @CHC)
- Blake Snell20 (LAA, @LAD) ← Pads are in desperation mode to keep ahold of a Wild Card spot as they begin a rough 10-game stretch. Snell gets second start after team skips Jake Arrieta with off days… wouldn’t you?
- Max Fried25 (WSH, MIA)
- Chris Sale26 (TB,
@CHW) ← Latest Red Sox addition to the COVID-19 IL - Lance McCullers Jr.31 (SEA, LAA) ← Zack Greinke is being built up slowly coming back from COVID and won’t pitch this week. Thus, McCullers may see two starts!
- Aaron Nola33 (@MIL, COL)
- Hyun Jin Ryu37 (@NYY, @BAL)
- Sonny Gray44 (@CHC, @STL)
- Bailey Ober53 (@CLE, KC) ← Will pitch in tandem with returning Michael Pineda119, at least for first start; hurts his win chances (piggyback benefits Pineda, making him a sneaky play/stream), but Ober can still help your ratios!
- Kyle Freeland61 (SF, @PHI)
Other Options: Steven Matz62 (@NYY, @BAL), Jameson Taillon68 (TOR, @NYM), Tarik Skubal 70 (@PIT, TB)*, Yusei Kikuchi73 (@HOU, ARI), James Kaprielian82 (CHW, TEX), Edward Cabrera83 (NYM, @ATL), Miles Mikolas85 (LAD, CIN), Aaron Civale87 (MIN, MIL), Carlos Carrasco88 (@MIA, NYY), Patrick Corbin116 (NYM, @PIT)
*Skubal gets another start with Matthew Boyd scratched for 9/10 start (and possibly done for the season with same recurring elbow soreness), but how long will Skubal go in start two? Should be another 3-4 inning, 50 pitch affair like @PIT.
Danger Zone: J.A. Happ126 (LAD, CIN), Paolo Espino135 (@ATL, @PIT), Mitch White143 (@STL, SD)*, Justin Steele146 (CIN, SF), Alexander WellsNR & Zac LowtherNR (KC, TOR), Jaime BarriaNR (TEX, @HOU)*
*Mitch White – who might be Kevin Brown in disguise cause nobody knows who dafuq this guy is lol (except for us) – is pending a likely recall from the minors (recalled but utilized 9/8 for lone start). Barria is another added two-start pitcher but gets a challenging second turn.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Ray’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 6 – 12
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Connor Joe (hamstring strain) suffered a mild strain of his right hammy on 9/3 while running first to third. After the game, manager Bud Black described Joe’s injury to reporters as “not the best of scenarios, (but he) doesn’t expect Joe will miss the remainder of the season.” The following day, Joe was placed on the 10-day injured list, as expected. The timing calls for a drop unless you have the bench space or an IL spot.
Lucas Giolito also hits the 10-day IL with a strained left hamstring. The good news is he has already begun playing catch after feeling much better and, more relatedly, took part in a running program. He is expected to throw a bullpen session on 9/8, which will determine his status for the weekend series against Boston. For now, I’ve left him in this week’s expanded rankings, but continue to monitor in case ChiSox opt to use this time for “load management.” We saw them employ this tactic with Lance Lynn (knee), who, after manager Tony La Russa confirmed his IL placement was precautionary and meant for rest, will only miss a start or two.
And the hits just keep on coming… Brandon Nimmo (right hamstring strain) was placed on the 10-day IL after an early exit in game one of this past weekend’s doubleheader. In an active first inning, Nimmo slipped off third base awkwardly, rolling over the bag, and seemed to grimace to me, but nobody noticed. New York continued to pour on runs in the second, around Nimmo’s second hit of the ballgame, but he did not come out to play the field in the bottom half after coming up lame running home. Originally thought to just be tightness, the downgrade to a strain is disappointing and leaves him week-to-week. Further tests revealed strain to be mild, but his fantasy season could be over. As a result, Kevin Pillar should see a bulk of the playing time in center, with lighter-hitting Albert Amora on call for support.
Terrible news for Austin Gomber, the Colorado Rockies and his fantasy owners… Gomber was diagnosed with spondylolysis or pars defect. Despite the “lol” in the name, this is no laughing matter. Layman’s terms, it’s a stress fracture of the bones in the lower spine. Sadly, this brings his season to an end, and his 2022 Spring Training may be delayed as he looks to make a full recovery. ::prayer hands emoji:: Ryan Feltner (jumping from Double-A; Colorado’s No. 22 ranked prospect) has been added to the 40-man roster and will look to occupy Gomber’s vacancy in the rotation unless Jon Gray (forearm tightness) can make it back before season’s end. Gray threw a sim game on 9/4 and depending on how his forearm responds, a clearer picture will be revealed.
Yordan Alvarez (knee) was helped off the field on 9/4 after fouling a ball off of his left leg. He has been diagnosed with a left knee bruise and is considered day-to-day. He underwent X-rays, which were negative, so the good news is no structural damage! Manager Dusty Baker is optimistic the 24-year-old won’t require a trip to the IL.
Willy Adames (strained left quadriceps) hit the 10-day IL on 9/5 after aggravating a nagging quad injury. It’s unclear how long the 26-year-old is expected to be sidelined, but the Brewers figure to be cautious with his return since a potential playoff run is on the horizon, especially since he already missed some time after originally suffering the injury in late August. Luis Urías will slide over to man shortstop, while Jace Peterson should see more playing time at the keystone.
Jonathan Loáisiga (right shoulder/rotator cuff strain) was placed on the IL (retro 9/4) and will be re-evaluated after not throwing for 10 days. Manager Aaron Boone said he is “hopeful” that the right-hander can return before the end of the regular season. Albert Abreu was recalled to pick up some of the slack left by Loaisiga.
Miguel Sanó came away with a left shoulder contusion after colliding with Mike Zunino during the 9/4 contest against the Rays. He was not in the starting lineup the following day and is considered day-to-day.
Lastly, some good news. Jesse Winker (intercostal strain) is ramping up his baseball activities. Manager David Bell said Winker “could be a week away” from beginning a rehab assignment.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Bryse WilsonNR, RH PIT (DET, WSH; 25% owned) – One thing about Wilson is he struggles against good competition but pulls through against bad teams. Detroit has improved greatly throughout the season but can still be handled. The Tigers have the fifth-highest strikeout rate dating back to 8/1 while ranking bottom-10 SLG, wOBA and wRC+ in the same time period. As for the Triple-A Nationals, aside from Juan Soto, I’m not afraid of anyone no matter how spunky they are. I’m going to trust Wilson to at least give us a shot at a quality start, if not the win, in both contests.
Honorable Mention: Glenn OttoNR, RH TEX (@OAK; 30-35% owned) – DO NOT USE IN WEEKLY LOCK LEAGUES! We are not sure if Otto will remain in the rotation, but if he does, he will line up to face Oakland over the weekend. He looked really impressive in his big league debut vs. HOU (5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K) and continued to pour it on vs. LAA in his second stanza. The strikeout upside is immense should he face the A’s, and he can be added in daily leagues if you have the room to use in this spot if he gets the call. *UPDATE: Otto will make the start on 9/10 @OAK… Fire him up in your daily leagues if pitching needs a boost!
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, September 12, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Luis Patiño (RHP, TB) | 4-3 | 4.65 | 4.92 | 4.53 | 4.33 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 37.6% | 48.6% | ||||||||
Tarik Skubal (LHP, DET) | 8-12 | 4.30 | 4.07 | 3.88 | 5.56 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 44.7% | 42.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Steven Matz (LHP, TOR) | 11-7 | 3.70 | 3.98 | 4.12 | 3.95 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 37.7% | 32.3% | ||||||||
Zac Lowther (LHP, BAL) | 0-1 | 6.91 | 5.58 | 4.69 | 6.66 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 53.3% | 42.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Ryan Feltner* (RHP, COL) | 5-2 | 2.85 | 4.01 | — | — | 26.8% | 7.4% | — | 41.5% | ||||||||
Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) | 7-8 | 4.57 | 3.44 | 3.31 | 3.58 | 29.4% | 5.4% | 37.3% | 40.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Patrick Corbin (LHP, WSH) | 7-14 | 6.14 | 4.33 | 4.62 | 5.89 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 41.0% | 30.9% | ||||||||
Bryse Wilson (RHP, PIT) | 2-6 | 4.60 | 5.02 | 5.17 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 7.1% | 40.1% | 38.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Eric Lauer (LHP, MIL) | 5-5 | 3.18 | 4.29 | 4.34 | 3.98 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 35.0% | 38.9% | ||||||||
Aaron Civale (RHP, CLE) | 10-3 | 3.25 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 4.24 | 20.4% | 6.0% | 38.9% | 35.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Edward Cabrera (RHP, MIA) | 0-1 | 7.11 | 6.23 | 6.33 | 10.97 | 9.3% | 13.0% | 44.7% | 24.3% | ||||||||
Max Fried (LHP, ATL) | 11-7 | 3.42 | 3.53 | 3.83 | 3.79 | 24.1% | 6.9% | 35.0% | 28.0% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jaime Barria (RHP, LAA) | 2-3 | 5.16 | 5.22 | 5.42 | 5.86 | 12.2% | 7.6% | 41.0% | 32.9% | ||||||||
Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP, HOU) | 11-4 | 3.19 | 3.72 | 4.04 | 3.40 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kris Bubic (LHP, KC) | 4-6 | 5.07 | 4.67 | 4.82 | 5.67 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 40.1% | 32.0% | ||||||||
Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) | 2-2 | 4.00 | 3.97 | 3.84 | 4.42 | 25.1% | 5.3% | 42.0% | 43.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Nick Pivetta* (RHP, BOS) | 9-7 | 4.67 | 4.50 | 4.32 | 3.98 | 25.9% | 10.7% | 39.3% | 43.9% | ||||||||
Lance Lynn* (RHP, CHW) | 10-4 | 2.59 | 3.90 | 3.79 | 2.68 | 27.3% | 7.5% | 34.6% | 43.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Sonny Gray (RHP, CIN) | 7-6 | 3.88 | 3.53 | 3.71 | 3.18 | 28.0% | 8.5% | 31.8% | 32.1% | ||||||||
J.A. Happ (LHP, STL) | 8-7 | 6.24 | 5.30 | 5.00 | 5.74 | 17.5% | 7.1% | 42.1% | 45.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Logan Webb (RHP, SF) | 9-3 | 2.64 | 2.78 | 3.15 | 3.27 | 26.6% | 6.3% | 37.6% | 18.4% | ||||||||
Justin Steele (LHP, CHC) | 3-2 | 3.75 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 3.55 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 34.0% | 27.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Taylor Hearn (LHP, TEX) | 5-4 | 3.95 | 4.55 | 4.28 | 4.61 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 37.6% | 41.3% | ||||||||
James Kaprielian (RHP, OAK) | 7-4 | 3.81 | 4.69 | 4.39 | 4.61 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 42.0% | 47.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Blake Snell (LHP, SD) | 7-6 | 4.22 | 3.71 | 4.00 | 4.87 | 31.0% | 12.6% | 40.8% | 36.9% | ||||||||
Max Scherzer (RHP, LAD) | 13-4 | 2.28 | 3.12 | 2.79 | 2.97 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 33.4% | 47.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Tyler Gilbert (LHP, ARI) | 1-2 | 3.12 | 4.95 | 5.11 | 3.15 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 33.3% | 39.8% | ||||||||
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, SEA) | 7-8 | 4.32 | 3.85 | 4.16 | 5.13 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 46.4% | 30.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
TBD (NYY) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
Carlos Carrasco (RHP, NYM) | 1-2 | 5.88 | 3.74 | 3.92 | 4.18 | 21.9% | 4.1% | 39.8% | 34.6% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!