MLB Weekly Preview: September 5 – 11

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

*UPDATES: LAA SHIFTS TO 2 L / 4 R; COL SHIFTS TO 2 L / 4 R; BOS SHIFTS TO 1 L / 5 R; ATL SHIFTS TO 4 L / 1 R!

NOTES: Figured I’d be short and to the point this week, so the article is out earlier than normal with many H2H players in playoff mode. Atlanta is the lone team who draws the short end of the stick with five games. However, 20 teams play six games for the next calendar week, so edges will need searching. We do have seven teams with seven games (mostly AL), while two NL clubs play a week-high eight games.

A Few Areas to Target

Jace of Spades
Milwaukee & San Francisco have an odd week. Brewers play three at Coors Field before traveling home to host the Giants for a doubleheader on their mutual off day and then the Reds for three over the weekend. As a result, both the Brew Crew and San Fran will have eight-game weeks. But wait, there’s more! Despite the balanced schedule of lefties and righties (3/5), the pitching matchups are pretty good for the Brewers (i.e. Ryan Feltner, Justin Dunn and a rando spot starter in the doubleheader). Willy Adames has been ballin’ over the last two weeks, and Hunter Renfroe is on a rager! 

Steaming-wise, I kinda like Jace Peterson (2% rostered in redraft, 24% dynasty) now that he’s back in total health. Just this past week, he’s slashing .462/.500/.462 in a platoon role. He will see five RHP this week, and as an owner in an NFBC Draft Champions league who utilized him greatly earlier in the year as an injury fill-in, Milwaukee will pinch hit as soon as the lefty starter is out of the game (à la Luis Arraez). 

CHiPs
As referenced above, San Francisco is the other club with eight games on the docket (@LAD – 3, @MIL – 2, @CHC – 3). The SF platoon is frustrating for fantasy managers and lowers the value of their hitters. However, with a probable estimate of 5 LHP to 3 RHP, Evan Longoria (2%, 27%) and/or J.D. Davis (<1%, 24%) can benefit greatly this week. For Longoria, he has hit .294 with three homers in 56 plate appearances since returning from the injured list. Furthermore, SF could also utilize Davis at first base, where he’s played seven games this season. Longo’s recommendation would be for 12-team leagues, while Davis is a much deeper stream in 15-16 team leagues. Finally, a “mainstay” in the lineup, Thairo Estrada (50%, 73%), can be useful this week. His .350 average (7-for-20) and .480 OBP over the last week play well at middle infield.

Bird Bath
As we approach the unofficial end of Summer – Happy Labor Day, btw – and the hot temperatures across North America begin to lower, it’s important to still take care of our feathered friends. The St. Louis Cardinals will need no such help quenching their thirst. They play seven games this week (WSH – 4, @PIT – 3) and will face some suspect pitching.

• Aníbal Sánchez
• Paolo Espino
• Josiah Gray
• Patrick Corbin (lone left-hander)
• Johan Oviedo
• Roansy Contreras
• JT Brubaker

Lars Nootbaar (33%, 68%) will continue to smash, and Brendan Donovan (21%, 52%; eligible EVERYWHERE!) is a thrifty option. In particular, Nootbaar has 10 homers with a .255 average in 194 plate appearances against righties this season.

Daily League Dime
This one is for the daily leaguers… the grinders. Where my MF dogs at?! Colorado has special circumstances this week. First, their home all week, which makes playing Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron a virtual no-brainer. Ok, obvious point out of the way. Next, when looking deeper, we see they face an equal balance of three lefties to three righties. This is where we can get creative (if in a pinch). Elehuris Montero (1%, 28%) can be had for free and started against those southpaws. If you roster McMahan and have an extra bench spot, maybe swoop up Montero to work them in conjunction. Montero has quietly been good at home (duh!) with three home runs and a .269 batting average in a small sample (53 PA). Other viable streamers are Randal Grichuk (52%, 78%), Jose Iglesias (18%, 45%) and Michael Toglia (<1%, 25%).

Flash Gordon
Minnesota plays seven games this week (@NYY – 4, CLE – 3) with six out of the seven games coming against right-handed starters. The number could rise to all seven if Nestor Cortes (more on his status in Injured List Report) can not make it back and Clarke Schmidt gets another turn. Either way, you know Luis Arraez’ mouth is watering! But a sneaky play that also benefits from the matchups is Nick Gordon (5%, 35%; OF/2B/SS eligible). In 260 plate appearances versus righties this year, Gordon has hit six homers with a .284 average. Further, he’s red-hot right now with a .381/.409/.714 slash line over the last seven days. Gordon also has stolen six bases this year, making Sam Jones awfully proud. “Death to Ming!”

Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
Ok, Orioles aren’t exactly a “bad offense, per se. For August, they have 105 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which represents their total offensive value along with external factors (i.e. ballparks). That mark is 11^th in MLB after lying 18^th for the season. As a team, they are trending up. Furthermore, Baltimore’s team ISO for the month is .160, good for eighth in baseball. This week they host the Blue Jays for a four-game set (including a 9/5 doubleheader) along with the Red Sox for a weekend three-game series. Also, Camden Yards is up to seventh in Overall Statcast Park Factor after batters struggled early on with the added dimensions. The Yards’ HR factor is 112, tied for seventh in MLB. If the O’s wanna remain in the Wild Card picture, the O-ffense will need to perform against these teams.

Another dose of good news for the O’s is the pitching matchups. They are scheduled to face ALL RIGHT-HANDERS! This means it’s Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander SZN. If you don’t have any of them, no worries. You still may have a shot to dump that remaining FAAB on rookie lefty hitter Gunnar Henderson (24%, 68%). Henderson is the real deal and was a stud in the upper minors this year (19 HR, 22 SB, .297 BA; 503 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A). Moreover, in his first three MLB games, Henderson has multi-hits in two of them, including two doubles, a homer and a stolen bag. 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*As of 9/3/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
Now six months into using a humidor at every park, we are seeing a larger majority of stadiums hovering around the mean. So I guess mission accomplished? Warmer months are having an effect too, and I still think northern teams shouldn’t use humidors until June.

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole² (MIN, TB) ⬅️ NYY will opt to throw Domingo Germán⁷⁴ on short rest instead and push Cole to 9/13.
2. Framber Valdez⁹ (TEX, LAA) ⬅️ HOU will go back to a six-man rotation with Hunter Brown making his MLB debut on 9/5.
3. Aaron Nola¹² (MIA, WSH)
4. Shane Bieber¹⁵ (@KC, @MIN)
5. Joe Musgrove¹⁶ (ARI, LAD)
6. Brandon Woodruff¹⁷ (@COL, CIN)
7. Kevin Gausman²⁰ (@BAL, @TEX)
8. Logan Webb²³ (@LAD, @CHC)
9. Brady Singer³⁰ (CLE, DET)
10. Freddy Peralta³⁴ (@COL, CIN SF) ⬅️ Peralta is struggling to rebound from his last start, so MIL will give him a few extra days rest. Adrian Houser^NR will start in his place on 9/5 and may get the two starts.
11. Andrew Heaney³⁸ (SF, @SD)
12. Lance Lynn⁴⁰ (@SEA, @OAK)
13. Triston McKenzie⁴² (@KC, @MIN)

Other Options: Martín Pérez⁴³ (@HOU, TOR), Blake Snell⁴⁷ (ARI, LAD), Joe Ryan⁵⁶ (@NYY, CLE), Jameson Taillon⁶³ (MIN, TB), Justin Steele⁷³ (CIN, SF), Michael Wacha⁷⁶ (@TB, @BAL), Cole Irvin⁷⁸ (ATL, CHW), José Berríos⁷⁹ (@BAL, @TEX), Taijuan Walker⁸⁰ (@PIT, @MIA)

*Steele takes his rightful place among the top 90 after delivering strong performances. To be honest, with his matchups this week, my model had him even higher. However, he is still dealing with a back issue that surfaced before he was placed on the restricted list for the Toronto series. Furthermore, innings are a concern (119.0 IP in 2022; 84.1 IP in 2021 & no official innings in 2020). If Steele takes the hill on 9/6, he would have 10 days of rest between starts, so he’s set up for success. Although, there remains a possibility someone else makes the start on 9/11 v SF, which is another reason he doesn’t rank higher. UPDATE: Steele’s back sends him to 9/9 with Wade Miley returning from IL on 9/6. CHC will use a six-man.

UPDATE: Luis Patiño¹¹² (BOS, @NYY) could be added to this list as he will be recalled on 9/5 to make the start. Walker’s two-start week will remain intact despite the PPD on 9/5. With both Mets & Pirates having an off-day on 9/8, both teams can get by without a sixth starter. PIT will push Mitch Keller to 9/6, with Bryse Wilson & Johan Oviedo pitching in the 9/7 doubleheader (PROBABLE). Meanwhile, Irvin picks up a second start with OAK changing up their rotation due to Adam Oller’s injury.

Danger Zone: Jack Flaherty⁸⁴(WSH, @PIT), Kyle Bradish¹¹⁷ (TOR, BOS), Marco Gonzales¹²⁰ (CHW, ATL), Mitch Keller¹²¹ (NYM, @STL), Rich Hill¹²⁵ (@TB, @BAL), Tommy Henry¹³⁴ (@SD, @COL), Chris Archer¹³⁵ (@NYY, CLE), Aníbal Sánchez^NR (@STL, @PHI), Tyler Alexander^NR (@LAA, @KC), Ryan Feltner^NR (MIL, ARI), Justin Dunn^NR (@CHC, @MIL), Wade Miley^NR (CIN, SF)

*Flaherty is in the Danger Zone despite two prime matchups. The reason? Do you trust that shoulder? No matter your take, a wise move is to always see your returning pitcher’s arm throw (at least) a game before inserting into the lineup. If you’re in a league setup that allows Flaherty to be added for the @PIT start after checking out fine with WSH, I’m here for it. If you wanna live dangerously, that’s on you. He has pitched quite well (and deep) in his rehab starts (most recently, 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 9 K, 102 PIT for Double-A Springfield). However, Double-A innings and MLB innings are far different beasts in terms of pitch intensity and innings duress. Assuming good health, I do feel Flaherty can be a difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs. He struck out 29% of batters in his five recent rehab starts.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 5 – 11

*Alex Cobb and Clayton Kershaw, who are neck-and-neck in the rankings, are probable to face each other on 9/7. I could never imagine a world where Cobb ranks ahead of Kershaw, but here we are. While the prior is rolling (v PHI: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K, W), the latter is trying to find his game after weeks on the shelf.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Yordan Alvarez – DTD, Hand Discomfort
Alvarez did not play for a fourth consecutive game due to a left-hand issue. He was originally in the starting lineup for Houston but was scratched before the series opener against the Angels. 

Andrew Benintendi – DTD, Right Wrist
Benintendi exited the game on 9/2 against the Rays in the third inning after injuring his right wrist on a swing. X-rays were negative, and he will undergo an MRI on 9/3.

Anthony Rizzo – DTD, Lower Back Tightness
Rizzo has been out of the lineup since 8/31 due to a back ailment and received an epidural injection. As a result, he will continue to be out until next week. Manager Aaron Boone said Rizzo could be back in the lineup on 9/6, however, noting encouraging results of an MRI.

Nestor Cortes – 15-day IL, Left Groin Strain
Cortes threw a bullpen this week in Anaheim and it went well, Manager Aaron Boone said. He’ll throw live batting practice to hitters at the Yankees’ minor-league complex in Tampa on 9/3. If all goes well then, Cortes likely comes off the IL five days later and goes back into the Yankees’ rotation to face Minnesota.

Zack Wheeler – 15-day IL, Right Forearm Tendinitis
We got bad news over the weekend about the return of Wheeler. He has been temporarily shut down from throwing after continued inflammation and soreness in his elbow. The plan, according to interim manager Rob Thomson, is to reevaluate after the club’s current series against the Giants. But he will not throw his bullpen nor return to the rotation on 9/6.

Salvador Perez – DTD, Right Hand Contusion
Perez had to exit his game on 9/2 against the Tigers in the sixth inning after being hit by a pitch on the right hand/wrist area. He remained out of the lineup on 9/3, although the X-rays were negative. 

Nick Pivetta – DTD, Left Calf Contusion
Pivetta exited his start against the Rangers after being struck by a comebacker in the third inning. However, manager Alex Cora said Pivetta will likely make his next start, according to Chris Cotillo of the Springfield Republican. Pivetta lines up to face Tampa Bay on the road on 9/7.

Jorge Polanco – 10-day IL, Left Patellar Tendinitis (Retro 8/31)
Polanco hasn’t been seen on the field since 8/27, spanning eight calendar days. Math may not be my bag, but two more days would have been a 10-day IL stint. Some teams (see also, Chicago White Sox) boggle my mind. Until Polanco returns, Nick “Flash” Gordon will continue seeing playing time at the keystone.

Sonny Gray – DTD, Right Hamstring Tightness
Gray left his last start on 9/2 after he could not continue pitching despite trying to gut it out. He was seen grabbing at the hammy an inning before his removal. Further testing will prove if Gray can make his next start, tentatively scheduled for 9/7 at Yankee Stadium.

Ke’Bryan Hayes – DTD, Left Shoulder Discomfort
Hayes was out of the lineup on 9/3, a day after he exited from battling the shoulder ailment. Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports tweets, “Hayes will be further evaluated by medical staff” before a decision is made for his return to the lineup. 

Jake Odorizzi – DTD, Arm Fatigue
Baseball players are weak sauce anymore. The Odoriffic One was scratched on 9/3 due to a bum arm. Tell us something we don’t know! However, he is coming off two good starts, so the timing is poor for Atlanta. This could easily be a tactic the club plans to utilize with their starters down the stretch. For now, Odorizzi will be skipped with his sights set on Seattle. 

Wander Franco Update…
Franco will finally restart his rehab with Triple-A Durham on 9/4, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. If Franco only requires a week or so of games down on the farm, he could be back with the big club by mid-September to serve as a shot in the arm for both the Rays and fantasy managers alike. I would still temper expectations, as a healthy Franco for the playoffs is the real goal.

Joey Bart is expected to return on 9/6.

One last thing… Zach Plesac is a moron. Grow up, Peter Pan! Count Chocula!!

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ José Quintana⁴⁹, LH STL (WSH, @PIT; 30% rostered in redraft, 71% dynasty) – Quintana gets some elite matchups this week (also see Jack Flaherty above; 65%, 90%), but the difference is Quintana is in full swing. His last few outings have been spotty as the strikeout rate has decreased, but overall on the season, he has pitched well to the tune of a 3.47 ERA (3.28 FIP, 3.85 xFIP) and 1.37 WHIP. The WHIP is high, but he rarely gets obliterated. Furthermore, the chances of a “blow-up start” are quite low versus these paltry clubs.

Honorable Mentions: Jesús Luzardo⁵⁹, LH MIA (@PHI, NYM; 33%, 93%), Johnny Cueto⁶⁸, RH CHW (@SEA, @OAK; 44%, 77%) – Amazed was I that Luzardo and Cueto are available in over 50% of ESPN leagues, while Johnny can still be swooped up in a vast amount of dynasty leagues if in need. Both of these men should be owned and started this week!

Solo Start: José Suarez⁸³, LH LAA (DET; 6%, 45%) – ICYMI, and most of the industry has, Suarez has been on a nice little run for more than a month. But what am I talking about? You are Fantasy Guru subscribers, so you were on Suarez weeks ago. I digress. The 24-year-old southpaw hasn’t given up more than three earned runs since July 16! Now, these matchups were with some low-brow and offensively challenged teams, including most recently the New York Yankees. Seriously, score a bloody run with someone other than Aaron Judge. I digress, again. However, Suarez gets another plus matchup versus Detroit at home. The Tigers have posted some woeful numbers vs. LHP: 22.0% K-rate (17th), .696 OPS (20th), .117 ISO (28th), .305 wOBA (20th), 99 wRC+ (19th).

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, September 11, 2022
*Not Confirmed