MLB Weekly Preview: August 29 – September 4

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: There are more sixes on this grid than at a satanic ritual! Only four teams play the week-high of seven games this week. Additionally, three are in the National League (all four will be discussed in Target section). Roster expansion will arrive mid-way through the period, adding more fuel to the fire. We will likely have more hitter options available through the wire, however, rotations may be altered to save guys on innings. Best to stay away from fringe plays and go with what got you here. However, be on the lookout for that hot young bat straight out of left field who can help bolster your team toward a strong playoff run! 

Random Fact: Did you know the expression “straight out of left field” came from the old Chicago ballpark that preceded Wrigley Field? There was an insane asylum beyond the left field fence. Every once in a while, some of the residents would wander into the ballpark, and they would say, “straight out of left field.”

Five-Game Week: HOU, TB (shame as the offense was just heating up!)

A Few Areas to Target

LA Resurrezione
Dodgers play seven games this week (@MIA – 1, @NYM – 3, SD -3), which presents some challenging pitching matchups. The volume of games should offset any concerns, however, so you’re starting your Dodger studs. Furthermore, they are scheduled to face six right-handed starters, which is music to the ears of resurgent lefties Max Muncy and Joey Gallo (46% rostered in redraft, 63% dynasty). 

Boston Market
It’s been a bumpy ride this year for the players of Beantown. However, this week brings some joy to Mudville. Trevor Story (hairline fracture in right wrist) is back healthy and just in time to play seven games (@MIN – 3, TEX – 4). Adding gravy to the potatoes is a bevy of tasty opposing starters.

• Dylan Bundy
• Chris Archer
• Joe Ryan
• Glenn Otto
• Dallas Keuchel
• Kohei Arihara
• Dane Dunning

Six out of seven are RHP, assuming the seventh remains cast-off Keuchel. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Alex Verdugo is licking his chops and setting up for some taters. Notably, four games will go down in Fenway Park, which has moved up to the third spot in overall Statcast Park Factors. Lastly, struggling J.D. Martinez is tough to stick with these days for your lineup. Considering all the factors listed above, this “Mart” may reopen for business.

Dessert Beers
After you finish your Boston Market rotisserie chicken, potatoes and corn, may I interest you in a beverage? The Brewers are the third team that plays seven games this week (PIT – 3, @ARI – 4). They’ll also face six righties, increasing the value of lefties Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Kolten Wong (61%, 73%). Tellez has swatted 23 of his 27 homers against righties this year. Wong can serve as a depth piece for those thin at second base or middle infielder. While the starting pitcher matchups are a mixed bag, the bullpens are tasty. Pittsburgh’s pen has the fourth-worst ERA at 4.61, while Arizona is not much better at 4.38 (sixth-worst). Furthermore, both parks – American Family Field & Chase Field – are respectively 12^th and 11^th in overall Statcast Park Factors. 

Twins Who Married Twins Share How Their Sons Are Genetically Brothers as Well as Cousins! ??
With so many teams playing six games this week, it’s challenging to find the edges. But one such edge lies with the Minnesota Twins. They will see 6-of-6 right-handed starters, which comes at a key time for a struggling star who had been carrying our lineups. Luis Arraez has gone a woeful 1-for-17 with a lone double and RBI and only two walks over the last five games. His slash line versus RHP is .345/.408/.867 this season, so look for a rebound and a shake this week! – Maybe this was an obvious point that didn’t need elaboration, but I was looking for an excuse to link the above article. Freakin’ crazy!

Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
The Diamondbacks are the fourth and final team to play seven games, but their septuplet is at home this week (PHI – 3, MIL – 4). Remember how I wrote Chase Field is 11^th in overall Statcast Park Factors? Diving deeper, Chase has been an excellent source of doubles (115 PF) and triples (119 PF) yet home runs are down from past seasons (83 PF). With above 100 scores in hits, walks and runs, players with high OBP and spray the ball around the ballpark have done the best. I’m looking at you, Josh Rojas (.361 OBP, .337 BABIP) and Ketel Marte (.335 OBP, .289 BABIP). Power-threats Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho make for fine plays too when considering the volume. 

Is your desert barren of D’backs? Consider streaming Jake McCarthy (7%, 37%). McCarthy is fire this week, batting .364 with two extra-base hits and a stolen base. On the season (190 AB), McCarthy is riding a .764 OPS, which isn’t bad for his cheaper FAAB price in comparison to other top outfielders available. The 25-year-old rookie is a useful source of stolen bases and batting average.

O Canada
While playing at home presents certain advantages for Toronto (CHC – 3, @PIT – 3), our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Non-vaccinated players can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game. Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer shared, “We’re likely to be down probably three or four players.” 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*As of 8/25/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
Now five months into using a humidor at every park, we are seeing a larger majority of stadiums hovering around the mean. So I guess mission accomplished? Warmer months are having an effect too, and I still think northern teams shouldn’t use humidors until June.

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Corbin Burnes² (PIT, @ARI)
2. Max Fried⁶ (COL, MIA)
3. Zac Gallen¹⁶ (PHI, MIL)
4. Tony Gonsolin^IL (@MIA, SD) ⬅️ See IL Report
5. Carlos Rodón¹⁹ (SD, PHI)
6. Frankie Montas³² (@LAA, @TB)
7. Pablo López³⁶ (LAD, @ATL)
8. Brady Singer⁴⁰ (@CHW, @DET) ⬅️ Pushed to 9/5 (CLE) for extra day rest
9. Mike Clevinger⁴¹ (@SF, @LAD)
10. Marcus Stroman⁴⁸ (@TOR, @STL)
11. Taijuan Walker⁵⁵ (LAD, WSH) ⬅️ David Peterson remains in rotation for one more turn. As a result, Walker’s second start is pushed to next week.

Other Options: José Berríos⁵⁶ (CHC, @PIT), Ranger Suárez⁶¹ (@ARI, @SF), Miles Mikolas⁶² (@CIN, CHC), Lucas Giolito⁶⁴ (KC, MIN), Kutter Crawford⁷² (@MIN, TEX), Cal Quantrill⁸⁹ (BAL, SEA)

*You may find it odd that I have Walker in the top 10 and Berríos listed as an ‘other option’ with the latter’s matchups. But this is what Berríos does. He lulls you into a false sense of security with two fine performances against NYY & BOS, only to dash your playoff hopes with inexplicable blow-ups against bottom feeders. You’re probably starting him if you hung on this long, hoping he turned a corner in fantasy. I cut bait – maybe too soon. But I like to keep my teams as clear-cut starts and clear-cut sits based on matchups and health. I don’t like headaches/choices. UPDATE: Mikolas picks up a second start with Flaherty’s return set for next week.

Danger Zone: Madison Bumgarner⁹⁹ (PHI, MIL), Dane Dunning¹⁰² (HOU, @BOS), JT Brubaker¹⁰⁶ (@MIL, TOR), Erick Fedde¹⁴¹ (OAK, @NYM), Dylan Bundy¹⁴⁴ (BOS, @CHW), Brayan Bello¹⁵⁰ (@MIN, TEX), José Ureña^NR (@ATL, @CIN)

*I had a dream of streaming Houser in these matchups. My team was behind in ERA and WHIP. The first start went swimmingly, and my squad crept into the lead… and then Arizona posted eight runs on ten hits and four walks. I woke up in a cold, cold sweat. The lessons here: Don’t let your dreams become nightmares and Don’t get cute by overthinking and reaching. UPDATE: Brubaker – Paternity List (8/28)

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 4

*Clayton Kershaw will skip a rehab assignment and return on 9/1 @NYM (Dustin May goes 9/2 vs. SD). In other news, Jack Flaherty is on track to return either 8/31 @CIN or 9/2 vs. CHC. My lean is the latter but see more below.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Teoscar Hernández – DTD, Left Foot Contusion
Hernández was out of the lineup on 8/27, one day after fouling a ball off his left foot and leaving the series opener versus the Angels early with a contusion. No word if he’s available from the bench.

Jorge Alfaro – 10-day IL, Right Knee Inflammation (Retro 8/25)
Alfaro finally hits the injured list after struggling with the nagging injury for a while. Manager Bob Melvin said that Alfaro will take a little time to heal. As a result, Luis Campusano has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to backup Austin Nola. According to reports, Campusano will likely catch on 8/28.

Justin Steele – DTD, Lower Back Tightness (aka “I threw too many innings.”)
Steele left his last start against the Brewers during the sixth inning with what the club announced as low back tightness. Manager David Ross described Steele as day-to-day, and the pitcher noted after the game that the issue flared up on his last warm-up pitch before the sixth.

Mending Pitchers Update…
Jack Flaherty struck out three, giving up one run on four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in his fourth rehab start with Triple-A Memphis on 8/26. The Cardinals are hoping Flaherty will be ready to make a start with the Cards by the end of the month… Tyler Mahle checked out well after a bullpen session on 8/26, according to Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Moving forward, Mahle will throw another bullpen in the coming days with Manager Rocco Baldelli “loosely targeting” a 9/2 return when first eligible. Mahle slots in better on 9/3 in place of Aaron Sanchez, and if no setbacks, this is when I expect him back… Trevor Rogers rebounded from a rough third rehab outing with 12 Ks and one walk in over six hitless, scoreless innings for Triple-A Jacksonville on 8/25. Next stop, Tampa?

This just in…

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Matt Manning⁸⁵, RH DET (SEA, KC; 9% rostered in redraft, 68% dynasty) – Once viewed as a future ace, or at the very least a strong No. 2/3, fantasy manager’s confidence took a swan dive after a miserable 2021 (5.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, -0.4 WAR – 18 GS, 85.1 IP). Well, it’s a new year, Manning is now fully healthy, and the numbers have greatly improved, albeit in seven game starts and 38 IP (2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 1.3 WAR). The difference has been with his nasty slider, which is generating a healthy 47% Whiff rate (22.9% in 2021). Manning is coming off a dominant outing versus San Francisco, where he pitched six scoreless innings with five hits, no walks and eight punchies. 

Manning has been performing well since activation from the IL. In five starts since his return, his ERA is 2.40 (right in-line with season mark). Also, after having walk issues in 2021 (8.6% BB rate), he has two free passes in his last three starts (5.9% BB rate in 2022). Manning gets the benefit of two home starts this week (0.69 ERA, 0.65 WHIP at home this season), and as we see below in Kirby’s writeup, Comerica Park favors pitchers. As a matter of fact, the two are scheduled to face each other on 8/30. #TheFuture! 

Honorable Mentions: Cole Irvin⁷¹, LH OAK (@WSH, @BAL; 34%, 81%), Spenser Watkins¹⁰⁴, RH BAL (@CLE, OAK; 4%, 21%) – Irvin continues to get outs despite the fifth-lowest K rate in the league at 17.4% and an average groundball rate (38.7%). He can be useful in these matchups, even if his statistics are not sexy (OAK rolling six). Speaking of the nonerotic, Watkins has given up more than three earned runs just once over his last 11 starts. Classify this recommendation as Sneaky, Sneaky!

Solo Start: George Kirby⁴⁷, RH SEA (@DET; 44%, 82%) – Facing the Tigers on the road is one of the best matchups you could ask for when setting your lineups. Despite Kirby’s home digs of T-Mobile Park favoring the pitcher the most, according to Statcast Park Factors, Comerica Park is the sixth-best for pitchers. Detroit is third-worst in runs per game for August, and they have the highest strikeout rate in the league in the timeframe. Kirby has shown immaculate control beyond his years – an immaculate inning is most likely in his future – and last week, he set a Pitch Tracking-Era record of 24 consecutive strikes. This goes back to the 1980s! 

Furthermore, we could get a bonus second start @CLE, which Kirby currently lines up to face. The reason I’m not assuming this is two-fold: 1) innings management and 2) roster expansion. As discussed in our hitter notes, rosters expand to 28 players mid-week. Seattle could use this as an opportunity to give Kirby extra rest, and I find that highly likely. He pitched a mere 67.2 innings between High-A and Double-A in 2021. This season, he’s up to 124.1, including time spent at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. However, if he does get the second start, Cleveland is below-average in runs per game for August.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, September 4, 2022
*Not Confirmed