MLB Weekly Preview: August 22 – 28

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: TB likely shifts to 4 L / 3 R with Nathan Eovaldi still ailing.

NOTES: Mixed bag schedule-wise this week with two teams playing a large volume of games and only seven teams playing seven contests. The remaining 16 teams will play a basic six, meaning matchup attention is paramount with at-bats coming at a premium. In terms of our hitting targets, there are few clear-cut handedness splits we can exploit as left- and right-handed starting pitchers are fairly evenly split. 

Five-Game Week: DET, WSH, SF, SD, ARI… Along with Los Angeles and Colorado playing the average six-game week, the NL West will only see 27 games this week. Makes it hard to justify playing players in platoon situations.

A Few Areas to Target

Route 66
Since Interleague series don’t mean squadouche in the fantasy game no mo’, unless we are talking major positive/negative park shifts or interesting matchups, we will have to settle for the good ole’ fashion rivalry series. Cards share a week-leading eight games via their doubleheader with the hated Chicago Cubs on 8/23 (five-game series, also three with the Bravos). Most noteworthy, St. Louis is one of a few teams facing a dominant handedness (7-of-8 RHP). This sets up extremely well for Lars Nootbaar (2% rostered in redraft, 33% dynasty), whose six long flies have all come off righties alongside a .244/.367/.456 slash line. Brendan Donovan (12.6%, 41%; eligible all over the diamond) and Nolan Gorman (15%, 76%) should also benefit by being on the long side of the platoon. Don’t forget about Paul DeJong for right-on-right violence and a three-true-outcomes approach (BB, K, HR). 

Meanwhile, the Cubbies also play eight games, including a weekend series in Milwaukee. Clutch-hitting Willson Contreras and raging hot Ian Happ – who is my pick for Offensive Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year? – get a boost with this volume of games. In addition, power-needy gamers can take a chance on Patrick Wisdom (45%, 88%), although he hurt his left ring finger while sliding into home during the weekend, so this add would necessitate monitoring. Nico Hoerner (40%, 84%) is an enticing option, too. I’m most interested in adding Franmil Reyes (57%, 76%) if available on the waiver wire. Chicago did well with their claim of Reyes. The man is flat-out raking! ?

Phillies, Again?
My Philly streaming recommendations last week fell short. Darick Hall was MIA, and Bryson Stott (6%, 54%) cooled off a bit. Jean Segura continued to do his thing, and chasing down one of his foul tips for the ball boy shows me what kind of man he is. With a seven-game week of excellent pitching matchups (CIN – 4, PIT – 3), I’m going right back to the well this week. Stott will see up to six right-handed starters, which will make Kyle Schwarber a pleased man as well. In place of Hall, sub in a surging Alec Bohm (40%, 89%), who may be available in your league and has been seeing the ball real well of late. 

The biggest reason I’m on the Phillies again is the home ballpark factor. Citizens Bank Park is No. 5 overall in Statcast Park Factors, including a 131 mark for triples with the odd caroms and 114 for home runs. Walks are above the mean as well, along with runs and wOBACon. The arrow is pointing upward for the Phillies this week.

Southside
Speaking of favorable park factors, the White Sox will play seven games this week with some nice ones (all three parks are in the top-10 below). This includes a one-game makeup at Kauffman Stadium (110 H, 115 2B, 132 3B, yet 78 HR), three games at Camden Yards (100 H, 104 BB/98 K, 102 R, 112 HR) and back to Guaranteed Rate Field (102 R, 106 BB, 126 HR) for three in an Interleague matchup with the Diamondbacks. This will aid Luis Robert’s success in returning to the lineup (more in IL Report) along with others in the heart of their order. Steaming-wise, AJ Pollock (21%, 54%) has been slashing .286/.323/5.36 over the last seven days with two long flies in 28 at-bats. 

Raging Bull ?
Rangers (@MIN – 1, @COL – 2, DET – 3) could have easily made for another example of ‘taking advantage of bad offenses in good situations,’ but I wanted to highlight them separately first. Primarily because of the two games at Coors Field, plus their pitching matchups are outstanding.

• Sonny Gray (Only above-average pitcher on the docket)
• Germán Márquez
• José Ureña (Plus that awful bullpen)
• Tyler Alexander
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Just his second start back since 5/18)
• Drew Hutchison

Fire up Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Adolis García. In addition, complete the stack with Nathaniel Lowe (56%, 89%), who has been raging with hits in 10 of his last 11 games, including four multi-hit affairs. His latest was a 4-for-5 night on 8/20, resulting in a .400/.483/.600 slash line over the last seven days. 

Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
The Athletics find themselves in a good situation this week as they are one of the seven teams that play seven games. So, if you are facing off in an H2H with someone stacked in Cardinals and/or Cubs, the A’s widely unrostered players can be a decent source to take the power back.

One such stream is Shea Langeliers (3.5%, 39%) if needing catcher help. For example, you have Daulton Varsho in a weekly-lock league. He notched an extra-base hit in three of his four games started (as of 8/20), including his first major-league home run. He’s playing pretty regularly with Sean Murphy by occupying DH most nights and has lit a fire under the ass of Murph with his presence (.348/.444/.783, 3 HR, 4 XBH, 6 R in the last seven days). Langeliers has also struck out in 50% of his plate appearances, so you take the good with the bad, but be mindful if your league weighs strikeouts heavily. Tack on two more XBH (including a triple) in a 3-for-4 day on 8/21!

O Canada
While playing at home presents certain advantages for Toronto (@BOS – 3, LAA – 3), our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Non-vaccinated players can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game. For the Angles, we’ll have to stalk Jeff Fletcher of the SoCal News Group all week leading up to the weekend series.

UPDATE: “The Angels will be making additional moves before Friday night’s game at Toronto because Canada prohibits visitors who aren’t vaccinated against COVID-19 from entering the country. A couple of Los Angeles players are not expected to make the trip. ‘We’ll announce those moves tomorrow (8/26),’ Nevin said.”

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*As of 8/13/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
Now five months into using a humidor at every park, we are seeing a larger majority of stadiums hovering around the mean. So I guess mission accomplished? Warmer months are having an effect too, and I still think northern teams shouldn’t use humidors until June.

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Max Scherzer¹ (@NYY, COL)
2. Julio Urías¹¹ (MIL, @MIA) ⬅️Picks up second start with Ryan Pepiot sent down.
3. Dylan Cease¹² (@BAL, ARI) ⬅️NEW DUE TO 8/21 PDD
4. Robbie Ray²⁵ (WSH, CLE)
5. Jordan Montgomery³⁷ (@CHC, ATL)
6. Sonny Gray⁴⁰ (TEX, SF)
7. Nathan Eovaldi⁴⁹ (TOR, TB) ⬅️Won’t start 8/23; another IL stint for EO. Furthermore, Josh Winckowski has been demoted to Triple-A (again) in favor of Brayan Bello, who should remain ROS and will start on 8/24.
8. Adam Wainwright⁵⁰ (@CHC, ATL)
9. Eric Lauer⁵⁵ (@LAD, CHC)
10. Nick Lodolo⁵⁶ (@PHI, @WSH)
11. Ranger Suárez⁶⁰ (CIN, PIT) ⬅️Suárez’ second stanza gets pushed to next week, along with every other Phillies SP. The spot starter (Cristopher Sanchez) I theorized below comes on 8/24 against CIN instead. This should ensure Syndergaard’s second start with five days’ rest now.

*It’s lonely at the top. Observe the 24-place rank distance between Scherzer and Ray. Following this, we get another 12 places for the third-ranked Montgomery. Shit be tight… not many two steps to be had! H2H players are going to have to stick with some of the pitchers lower on this list despite not-so-ideal matchups. Arms like recently-skipped Eovaldi and Waino may have been ‘other options’ any other week, but I’m thinking of you H2H’ers! For weekly roto leagues, this is a week to go with pitchers higher in ranks regardless of one- or two-start status. Rankings/Matchups updated due to CHW @ CLE PPD on 8/21.

Other Options: Michael Kopech^IL (@KC, ARI), Domingo Germán⁷⁸ (NYM, @OAK), Noah Syndergaard⁸⁶ (CIN, PIT), Aaron Civale⁸⁸(@SD, @SEA), Edward Cabrera⁸⁹ (@OAK, LAD), Jake Odorizzi⁹³ (@PIT, @STL)

*Syndergaard might be higher up on this list with a sweet two-step, but who da faq knows if he’ll pitch twice in a week, let alone on normal rest. I can totally see a spot starter in his stead versus Pittsburgh. Either way, I’d start him against Cincy, and maybe we get a bonus (see above). ??UPDATE: Kopech had a trainer out on the mound before he even threw an official pitch (during warmups). CHW opted to leave him in, and after throwing 19 pitches (1 H, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 ER), he was then removed due to a left knee strain (right, Tony?). . . this team is a MESS!

Danger Zone: Germán Márquez¹¹² (TEX, @NYM), Roansy Contreras¹¹³ (ATL, @PHI), Drew Smyly¹¹⁷ & Adrian Sampson^NR (STL, @MIL), Tucker Davidson¹²⁶ (@TB, @TOR), Austin Voth¹³⁰ (CHW, @HOU), Zach Davies¹⁴³ (@KC, @CHW), Zach Logue¹⁴⁶ & Adam Oller^NR (MIA, NYY), Cole Ragans^NR (@MIN, DET), Drew Hutchison^NR (SF, @TEX), Luis Cessa^NR (@PHI, @WSH)

*I’ve been found guilty of living in the gutter by streaming Voth, but it has paid off handsomely for me. Matter of fact, ‘Austin 3:16’ has had a 2.03 ERA since the middle of July. Many spots are worthwhile to stream Voth, however, this is not one of them! Smyly could be sneaky if you are making that epic comeback. Cessa will fill the vacancy from CIN placing Graham Ashcraft on the IL. It’s been a long journey for Cessa to regain a starter’s role, but he has it for a pitching-starved Cincinnati ballclub. Although he isn’t likely to throw more than a few innings, he could stick around for a bit and build up if he performs. However, Hunter Greene should return from his IL stint in mid-Sept.

(8/24) Madison Bumgarner will be skipped this time through rotation to work on some mechanical issues. While he should return on 8/30 vs. PHI, Davies will pick up the slack in his stead. (8/26) Ragans hits the 15-day IL with a right calf strain. So, Dallas Keuchel is back in our lives, starting on 8/27. In his defense, he has posted a 2.31 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Round Rock.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 22 – 28

*Taijuan Walker will pitch on 8/23 @NYY with his bulging disc subsiding. In turn, this gives Jacob deGrom some extra rest as he works back to normalcy, having him face Colorado at home instead (8/25). For fantasy purposes, you’re starting deGrom regardless, and I won’t blame you if you sit this one out on Walker. — In other news, Aaron Ashby hits the IL on 8/22 (retro 8/20) with left shoulder inflammation. Adrian Houser, returning from the IL, will take his spot. Additionally, I expect Eric Lauer to now pitch twice this week. Rankings/Matchups updated due to CHW @ CLE PPD on 8/21.

Pitching Spotlight: A Lizard Back in Oakland

Jesús Luzardo (29% rostered in redraft, 92% dynasty) lines up to face Oakland on 8/24 unless the Marlins opt for a spot start to keep him on an extra day’s rest. That would be a dumbass decision, as Red from ‘That 70’s Show’ would put it. Not only would it rob the young 24-year-old of a special moment, but the move would place him against the Dodgers for the second start in a row. Luzardo did have a dominant start versus LA, tossing 6+ innings of one-run ball on four hits and two walks with seven punchies. Diving deeper into his 100 pitches (63 strikes), Jesús threw 17 first-pitch strikes to a total of 24 batters faced. Furthermore, he had 11 called strikes and 18 swinging strikes. When netting contact outs, he induced five groundballs to six flyballs. It was a great start, but why test fate?

Luzardo has matured from his days in Oakland thanks to Marlins pitching coach, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. Over three seasons with the A’s, he had a 4.79 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 1.70 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9 in 31 appearances (15 GS). In 22 GS with the Marlins, and after a rough transition in 2021, those same numbers read 5.01 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 1.10 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9. Moreover, in 10 GS this season, Luzardo has a 3.44 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 0.86 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9! As a result, Mel has Jesús above the 79^th percentile in xERA (80), xwOBA (80), xBA (87), xSLG (79), K% (90) and Whiff% (90). 

Pitch usage is behind the positive results. Always blessed with a fine curveball, Luzardo threw it between 28-29% of the time in Oakland. This season, the curveball usage is up to 32.8%, generating a 39.5% Whiff rate and 22.3% Put Away percentage. The spin rate is up too, generating more movement (see graph below from Baseball Savant). He’s also throwing his sinker 21.2% of the time, a far cry from the 26-28% he did in Oakland. His Whiff% and PutAway% are much lower for the pitch, with both figures ranging in 15-16 percent. Finally, his changeup is playing immaculately off his 97 mph four-seam fastball and 96 mph sinker (average mph). The changeup usage is up 2%, and he’s netted an awesome 50.4% Whiff rate along with a 26.3% Put Away percentage this season.

Luzardo’s development has come a long way. It’s tantalizing what this kid can do when healthy. Since returning from the injured list on 8/1 (4 GS), 24 batters left the box shaking their heads in 23.1 IP by Luzardo. In that timeframe, he has a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 26.7% K rate, 5.6% BB rate, .250 BABIP, 41% GB rate and 37.7% FB rate. Those numbers will better in a creampuff matchup with his ex-employer. 

Side Note: On the other side of the rubber, JP Sears will also face his former team on 8/25 (NYY) if the current rotation holds. It’s a small world after all! And rivalry week doesn’t end there. Mike Clevinger will face Cleveland at the beginning of the week.  

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Teoscar Hernández – DTD, Bruised Left Foot
Hernández fouled a ball off his left foot in the eighth inning of Toronto’s 5-2 win over the Yankees on 8/20 and was replaced defensively in the next inning, but X-rays were negative. He will test out his foot before the series finale to determine his status. Teammate George Springer (DTD, Knee) fouled a ball off his right knee against New York on 8/18 and was out of the lineup on 8/19 and 8/20. Whit Merrifield and Jackie Bradley will see playing time in right and center field respectively. UPDATE: Hernández is back in the lineup on 8/21 at DH. Springer remains OUT.

Keegan Thompson – 15-day IL, Lower Back Tightness (8/20)
AKA, I pitched too many innings this year. Thompson has been scuffling in three of his last four games, the fourth being vs. Washington. Whether it be a tired arm or the back tightness causing the dip in productivity, Thompson will have 15 days to right the ship for the stretch run. He is eligible to return on 9/6.

Tyler Mahle – 15-day IL, Right Shoulder Inflammation (Retro 8/18)
This is the second time this year the righty has gone on the IL due to a shoulder issue. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune labels the designation as precautionary since Mahle was set to miss his scheduled start at Houston in any event. By placing Mahle on the IL now, Minnesota can recall Devin Smeltzer, who can aid the pen or make a spot start in the vacancy of Mahle. In fact, Smeltzer was used right away, throwing 45 pitches and covering three innings in relief of Chris Archer on 8/20. While a bit too many throws to serve as an IRL bullpen session, Smeltzer could still throw bulk innings on 8/23 @HOU, when Mahle was supposed to go. He is eligible to return on 9/2. 

Braxton Garrett – 15-day IL, Right Oblique Strain (Retro 8/17)
Craig Mish of SportsGrid.com and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald report the move and opinion that Garrett will be shut down for the season. Drat, just when he was heating up, but we knew the innings would be an issue eventually. This injury just “expedites” things. Garrett was a late scratch on 8/20 and will have limited time to build back up, even if the strain turns out mild. See ya next spring, kid!

Yordan Alvarez – DTD, Illness
Alvarez fell ill on the field on 8/19 versus Atlanta. He was transported to a local hospital for further evaluation. The club announced the following day that all tests came back normal, and Alvarez arrived at the ballpark to undergo further evaluation. He could return to the lineup on 8/21. Otherwise, expect Trey Mancini to operate as the designated hitter. UPDATE: Alvarez is back in the lineup on 8/21.

Now for some good news. . . Luis Robert returns to the lineup! Robert (left wrist sprain) sees his first action since 8/12! ?

THIS JUST IN…

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Ross Stripling⁶⁸, RH TOR (@BOS, LAA; 14% rostered in redraft, 58% dynasty) – Since joining the Blue Jays rotation full time in June, Stripling has a 2.21 ERA (2.64 FIP), and the mark lowers to 1.66 from July to current, so the trend is pointing up. He averages 75-80 pitches per start, which lowers win potentiality, especially as he comes back from injury. However, I’m randy about his outstanding changeup, which has a 33% Whiff rate. Coupled with a 4.2% walk rate, I’m all aboard the Ross Train. Choo, choo, mutha fu. . .

Honorable Mentions: Corey Kluber⁶¹, RH TB (LAA, @BOS; 42%, 87%), Jeffrey Springs⁶⁹, LH TB (LAA, @BOS; 33%, 68%), Daniel Lynch¹⁴⁹, LH KC (CHW, SD; 2%, 44%) – “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” We’re picking on two offenses this week that are on the down & outs. Plus, Stripling, Kluber and Springs are all well-ranked and solid arms if available in your leagues. Lynch is not so well-ranked but coming off a string of six starts allowing three runs or fewer in five of them since the middle of July (3.60 ERA). Furthermore, he has tormented the Pale Hose this year (2 GS, 11.1 IP, 2-0, 8 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 14 K, 11.12 K/9, 0.88 WHIP).

Solo Start: David Peterson¹⁴⁸, LH NYM (COL; 17%, 57%) – “HOMER MOVE, POV!” Sorry, but I can’t pass up Peterson against the Rockies. Colorado is 29^th in runs scored away from home, which lies in Tigers territory. In comparison, the Mets are seventh in runs scored at home, which furthers Peterson’s win probability. The 26-year-old lefty has been solid with a 3.44 ERA (3.46 xFIP). Peterson has been showcasing his wipeout slider more often than his sinker this year, which ironically has led to more groundballs and whiffs. He’s generating a 61.2% GB rate on sliders and 45.2% on the fastball.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, August 28, 2022
*Not Confirmed