MLB Weekly Preview: April 11 – 17

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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Welcome to the 2022 MLB Season!

We are the few, we are the proud. We are fantasy baseball managers! I mean no disrespect to our brave men and women of the Marines with this comparison. Without their service, we fat slobs could not enjoy the freedoms we have today. And in these times, I have learned freedom is not free.

Although, fantasy baseball is indeed a grind of the mind. Who will be diligent enough to maintain a steadfast pace throughout 162? That is always the question year after year. The past two seasons have had their fair share of “extracurricular activities,” creating further hurdles to attain our prize. None of you made them an excuse. Do me a solid? If you won your league (or multiple leagues), raise your arm. Are you doing it? Great, that’s a fair amount of raised arms out there! Keep them raised. Now, if you finished first, second or third in your league, raise your arm on up too. Shoot, some of you in the back are gonna have to stand on your chair, so I can see! Ok, I can’t really “see” you right now, but then again, I can. Just look at these testimonials! 

We are not free of challenges for the 2022 season. The pandemic is simmering down, for now?, so hopefully we can get back to normal scheduling and less turbulent roster management. Gone are the ways of the seven-inning doubleheader, robbing us of vital at-bats/innings, yet the “Manfred Man” still resides for one more season. While it wouldn’t be a surprise if the league and union revisit it down the line, the ghost-runner rule has only been approved for 2022. And speaking of the infinite wisdom of the lazy bureaucrats who negotiated our new CBA, due to the tardiness and lack of compromise on both sides, Spring Training was delayed enough to affect the opening month of the season. Originally slated for March 31, Opening Day comes a week later. Additionally, they agreed to expand active rosters from 26 to 28 players this season until May 1.

Here’s the logic. A shorter ramp-up period does not allow players enough reps to get ready for the season, especially coming off two irregular years. Injuries were already a concern from the past two seasons, and the self-imposed delay only exasperates this. Continue to build depth for your team through multi-position guys and balanced lineups as has been our focus the past two years. By adding a couple players in the early going and limiting the potential for marathon games, the league and union give managers some extra flexibility in keeping playing time in check. Furthermore, teams can carry any number of pitchers in April. Come May, however, MLB is instituting its 13-pitcher limit, which was originally slated for the 2020 season. That’ll eventually be a challenge for clubs, but they’ll have some extra leeway on the mound for the first couple weeks of the season, and so will we.

While it will be nice to have two more rosterable players per team – players who otherwise may have been sent down to the minors – it won’t last long. And as Ray points out in his podcast, the first month of minor-league options won’t count towards the yearly limit of five as decided in the new CBA. With one week to go till the season began, the powers that be in MLB decided this. One week!!! Is Major League Baseball being run by a guy who says he is a fantasy guru yet throws together a home league at the last minute, changing the rules all the way? Maybe. The league also confirmed that if a player is in the game as a pitcher and DH but gets removed as a pitcher, he can stay in as DH. Those who roster Shohei Ohtani are pleased; others are not. 

Finally, the last rule change that was announced a week before the season affects pitchers as well. The minimum stay for pitchers on the injured list is back to 15 days, but starting May 1… April, it’s still 10 days. It’s a new normal. Stay diligent!

I began this introduction with the word proud. I am so proud of this subscriber base, and after reading the influx of activity in our Discord from new subscribers and long-timers alike, the good times will continue to roll here at Fantasy Guru! My pledge is to give my best every day to provide the tools for victory. Alright, here we go. . .

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover in an adjoining article, drop a line in Discord or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: Astros have a light beginning to the season with two off-days in baseball’s second week of action. This week stinks for your ‘Stros hitters because all five of their games are on the road, three of which go down in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (2021 Park Factors – 0.952 runs, 0.934 home runs, 0.946 hits, 0.827 doubles, 0.486 triples). The other two are out in the desert, facing a D’Backs club who also shares the fate of a five-game week (@NYM, 3). The rest of the league has an even blend of six- and seven-game weeks – 14 teams play six and 14 play seven.

As I referenced in the intro, baseball, like the world, is adapting to a new normal and utilizing techniques from the past two years. Due to a shortened Spring Training, some teams are using tandems to get guys stretched out. For example, Tyler Wells (right-hander who is scheduled to face the Yankees) will piggyback with a multi-inning reliever. He’s been pitching in relief ever since returning from Tommy John surgery, although he started throughout his minor-league career. Thus, the Yankees get an * in the right-hander column since a lefty is likely to follow (Keegan Akin). Paul Blackburn (RH) is another example of this, and he will face both Tampa Bay and Toronto.

A Few Areas to Target

Lefty Loosey, Righty Tighty
Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Phillies and Padres could see up to six right-handed starters! Seattle, Philadelphia and San Diego are the most probable of the five teams to face six righties. So, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out we need to fire up the lefty bats. Blue Jays aren’t invited to the party with their righty-laden starting lineup, but this is a week to roll out Raimel Tapia (4.7% owned in redraft, 48% in dynasty) in those deeper leagues. Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco will eat, and we know the Rays like their platoons, so Ji-Man Choi (1.3%, 14%) will see the lion’s share of starts at first base. Also, gotta love Adam Frazier (33.3%, 61%), Jesse Winker and Jarred Kelenic (65%, 98%) this week. 

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are already off to a rip-roaring start in Philadelphia. Expect the good times to keep rolling this week, along with more playing time for the 45^th-ranked prospect in Major League Baseball, Bryson Stott (9.7%, 63%). Finally, our Padres targets will be Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer (29.6%, 51%). And will this be a break-out week for the ninth-ranked prospect, CJ Abrams (13.1%, 73%)? ?

Southside Johnny
ChiSox are home all week (SEA 3, TB 3). Guaranteed Rate Field had a 1.238 HR Park Factor in 2021, but was this an outlier? Looking back in history, when the field was called U.S. Cellular, the HR Park Factor was 1.267 (2003-2016). Digging deeper, “since the 2000 season, there have been 4,450 home runs hit at Comiskey Field/U.S. Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in 132,110 plate appearances, or 3.36 HR per 100 PA. In 2021, that rate was 3.65 HR per 100 PA,” Josh Nelson of Sox Machine writes. The park lends itself to a power surge thanks to reasonable power alleys, prevailing winds and outfield fences no higher than eight feet. Guaranteed Rate Field is a hitter’s paradise, but mainly for the big fly. The park ranked 28^th in singles, 29^th in doubles and 27^th in triples. Bust out the guys with the boomstick! 

Brew Crew
Milwaukee plays seven games this week (@BAL 3, STL 4), and the pitching staffs they’ll face vary from modest to mouthwatering. Brewers have one of the best hitting schedules of the week:

• Bruce Zimmermann
• Dean Kremer/Mike Baumann (not confirmed)
• John Means
• Miles Mikolas
• Steven Matz
• Dakota Hudson
• Jordan Hicks

Oh, and the park factors at Camden Yards and American Family Field are pretty good, even if Oriole brass did push back the fences in left field.

Sneaky Cubies
Cubs travel to Coors for four games to end the week, bumping the value of Chicago’s hitters. While also facing Pittsburgh in a weird NL two-game series, the opposing rotations present them with favorable matchups:

• José Quintana
• JT Brubaker
• Kyle Freeland
• Germán Márquez
• Antonio Senzatela
• Austin Gomber

On Opening Day, the Cubs managed to put up five runs against Corbin Burnes and company. Ian Happ (59.7% owned in redraft, 87% in dynasty) went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI. Nico Hoerner (3.4%, 46%) showed off the pedigree of a first-round draft pick with his laser two-run shot off Burnes, and Seiya Suzuki adjusted just fine in his first game in America (1-for-2, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K).

Rivalry Series
Show-Me Series (KC @ STL, 2) – Royals will see three different ballparks this week as they wrap their season-opening series with Cleveland on 4/11 and cap off the week hosting the upstart Tigers. In between, KC travels to their archrival Red Birds for a two-game interleague set, and they play seven games in total. We’ll also see the Battle for the Ohio Cup (CLE @ CIN, 2).

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2021 Statistics

STOLEN BASE TARGETS

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Zack Wheeler¹¹ (NYM, @MIA)
2. Yu Darvish¹⁴ (@SF, ATL)
3. Alek Manoah²² (@NYY, OAK)
4. Tyler Mahle²⁵ (CLE, @LAD)
5. Luis Patiño⁴⁹ (OAK, @CHW)
6. Huascar Ynoa⁵⁴ (WSH, @SD) ← Ynoa is now scheduled to start 4/18 against the Dodgers, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports. Braves are giving him an extra day of rest after getting roughed up in his first start (pitchers today are so sensitive, geez!). Bryce Edler, who stepped in for Tucker Davidson on 4/12, will pitch again on normal rest.
7. Alex Wood⁵⁹ (SD, @CLE)
8. Yusei Kikuchi⁶² (@NYY, OAK) ← Ross Stripling will make a spot start on 4/15 to rest other arms during a busy schedule. Kikuchi thus loses his second start.
9. Carlos Hernández⁶⁶ (CLE, DET PPD) – More on him later!
10. Ranger Suárez⁶⁷ (NYM, @MIA)

Other Options: Jameson Taillon⁷⁷ (TOR, @BAL), Aaron Civale⁸⁰ (@KC, SF), Andrew Heaney⁸⁴ (@MIN, CIN), Patrick Corbin⁸⁸ (@ATL, @PIT), Chris Flexen⁸⁹ (@MIN, HOU)

Danger Zone: Matt Brash¹⁰³ (@CHW, HOU)*, Elieser Hernandez¹¹³ (@LAA, PHI), Eric Lauer¹⁰⁸ Adrian Houser¹²⁰ (@BAL, STL), Nestor Cortes¹¹⁷ (TOR, @BAL), Taijuan Walker¹¹⁸ (@PHI, ARI)*, Nick Martinez¹²⁷ (@SF, ATL), Michael Wacha¹³⁷ (@DET, MIN), Ryan Yarbrough¹³⁸ (OAK, @CHW), Austin Gomber¹³⁹ (@TEX, CHC)*, Taylor Hearn¹⁴⁵ & Martín Pérez^NR (COL, LAA), Matt Manning¹⁵⁰ & Tyler Alexander^NR (BOS, @KC PPD), Dakota Hudson^NR (KC, @MIL), Bruce Zimmermann^NR (MIL, NYY), Paul Blackburn^NR & Adam Oller^NR (@TB, @TOR), Zach Thompson^NR (@STL, WSH CHC), José Quintana^NR (CHC, WSH), Drew Smyly^NR (@PIT, @COL)

*Brash has surprising talent (based on late draft position) and strikeout upside but is too wet behind the ears to get me to start him against these foes. Too early to hit up the danger zone! Walker would be higher and even creep out of the danger zone, but he will be on a short leash first couple of starts. Gomber could be sneakily interesting.

UPDATE: Sánchez is scratched for 4/11 start due to a stiff neck. You weren’t starting him anyway. WSH will either go with a BP game or reach into the minors (Josh Rogers) to keep other starters on track…. (4/11) Due to the PIT @ STL rainout, Thompson loses his two-start week (whoopty doo) and not Quintana. Pirates opt to move Thompson to 4/13 and slide everyone else down, keeping Quintana on the Tues/Sun assignment, FWIW. As for St. Louis, they will push Hudson back one day in the pitching schedule and have him start 4/12 against the Royals as well as move No. 5 starter Jordan Hicks to the back of the pitching order, keeping the other three members of the rotation as scheduled. Hicks will make his debut as a starter next week against Miami, and Hudson will keep his second start.

Additionally, Tampa Bay Ray pitchers are dropping like flies. Luis Patiño clutched at his side after 13 pitches on 4/11 and was quickly lifted from the game. He has been diagnosed with a strained left oblique and designated for the 60-day IL. Earlier in the day, Ryan Yarbrough was placed on the IL with a groin issue (retro 4/8), although he’s only expected to miss the April minimum of 10 days. He will be eligible for 4/18 @CHC… (4/14) With Brewers going to a six-man rotation by inserting Aaron Ashby into the fold, Lauer loses second start.

Taijuan Walker hits the IL with shoulder bursitis, and David Peterson will likely take his turn in the rotation on 4/17 vs. ARI. Peterson came on in relief for an injured Walker on 4/11, allowing three hits and zero runs with three strikeouts in four innings of work. He looked good and makes for an interesting stream on the last day of those H2H Point League matchups if you’re trailing!!! Arizona boasts four LHH starters in their lineup.

For a breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Ray’s FAAB Values!

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 11 – 17

Pitching Spotlight

On 4/13, Zack Greinke is slated to take on the St. Louis Cardinals and Adam Wainwright. Collectively, the two elder statesmen are 79 years and 29 days old. That’s Joey Tribbiani old. Surprisingly, the two have only locked horns twice before. In 2012, Greinke bested Waino 6-0 as Zack pitched a beautiful seven innings of shutout baseball on four hits and seven strikeouts for Milwaukee compared to Adam’s 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER and 6 K. And in 2013 with the Dodgers, Greinke once again got the best of Waino, 3-2, despite the latter pitching the better game. Third time, the charm? In Wainwright’s swan song, he has been vanquishing former obstacles. 

Tale of the tape…

Wainwright has been pitching like he’s sipped from the fountain of youth, while Greinke just tries to miss bats at this point. To Greinke’s credit, he’s been successful in doing so. At the very least, we’ll see two potential Hall of Famers showdown in the Show-Me Series. UPDATE: Game was postponed due to severe weather… guess we’ll cross our fingers to see this legendary matchup on either 5/2, 5/3 or 5/4. ?

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, MIN, ATL, MIL* (On the horizon is SD when Mike Clevinger returns).
*MIL adds to the list after inserting Aaron Ashby into the rotation… you know what to do! But in case you don’t, Ray tells us!

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

It’s been a beanball war in Washington, with the latest victim being Francisco Lindor. Fortunately, the ball did strike his C-flap (like Pete Alonso the previous night) before making contact with Lindor’s jaw. He was shaken more than anything, barely bleeding from the lip. After lying on the ground before the brouhaha, Lindor rose to his feet and left the field under his own power. His X-rays and concussion tests came back negative.

Xander Bogaerts (right hamstring) – More good news on the injury front. Bogaerts was back on the field 4/9, a day after leaving the Sox Opening Day game with right hamstring tightness. After clearing a full workout and taking batting practice, he made it back into the lineup.

While the RED Sox can breathe a sigh of relief, the WHITE Sox are not so lucky. Lucas Giolito will miss at least two starts due to left abdominal tightness. Shorter Spring Training strikes again. Leaving the game two innings earlier than his expectation (61 pitches), Giolito will require a stint on the IL but will keep his arm moving so that he doesn’t require a full ramp-up. 

AJ Pollock appeared to pull a hammy or glute when rounding first after a hit, aspiring for two bases. Initial tests showed tightness in the right hamstring, and he is being further evaluated. Manager Tony La Russa was already planning to place Pollock on the paternity list following the series finale against the Tigers to witness the birth of his second child. He may have some more time to spend at home. Andrew Vaughn (13.1% owned in redraft, 86% in dynasty) pitch-ran for Pollock and would be the beneficiary if the latter misses significant time. 

Texas placed Jon Gray on the 10-day IL with a right middle finger blister on 4/9. Manager Chris Woodward said he expects Gray to miss only one start (4/14). His replacement for that start remains unknown at the time of this writing, but my guess would be Kolby Allard. However, the Rangers could roll only four starters with two off-days (4/13, 4/18), assuming Gray can return for a 4/19 start in Seattle. UPDATE: Riding four starters is the initial plan.

Quick check-in on Evan Longoria. His stitches were removed on 4/8, and the 36-year-old third baseman is taking ground balls in the field along with one-handed swings. The next step will be to grip the bat in about two weeks. It’s a slow trudge after ligament surgery in his right index finger on 3/29. He is expected to be out for six weeks.

This just in…

Snell will be placed on the 10-day injured list 4/14, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports. The move should be retro by at least three days, and that will give us an indication as to when he can return.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Carlos Hernández⁶⁶, RH KC (CLE, DET PPD; 15.1% owned in redraft, 60% in dynasty) – It’s a crime this guy is so low owned. I mean, we have some arms on the shelf coming into the young season, but a dude ranked 66^thcan be had in 85% of leagues! His stats last season are as follows (85.2 IP): 6-2, 3.68 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.32 xERA, 20.7% K-rate, 11.5% BB-rate (glaring negative), 38.9% hard-hit rate. Up and down to be certain, but I’ll buy him for a dollar (literally)!

Honorable Mentions:  Daniel Lynch¹⁴⁷, LH KC (@STL, DET; <1%, 36%), Jordan Hicks^NR, RH STL (KC, @MIL; 6.1%, 46%, RP eligible in most leagues) UPDATE: Hicks was moved to the back of the pitching order due to 4/11 PPD. In the meantime, Hicks is available out of the bullpen in case you are stuck with him in your weekly lineup (GOT THE W ON 4/12 IN 2 INNINGS RELIEF!!!), expecting a two-step. However, any appearance will be a brief one while he prepares to throw four innings or 45 pitches, whichever comes first. (4/13) And now Lynch loses his second start due to today’s PPD. (4/14) Manager Oliver Marmol said today that Hicks will now make his debut as a starter next week against Miami and continue to throw out of the pen on a limited basis in the meantime. Instead, Marmol will turn to Tuesday’s starter, Dakota Hudson.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, April 17, 2022
(stats listed from 2021)