In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my data collection systems and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…
While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial that will benefit me this season: using bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.
That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!
In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!
Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article you wanna read and boom.. presto… alakazam.
Happy Fourth of July!
In the spirit of independence, I am freeing you of extra reading today so that you can spend time with your family, friends and loved ones. Fantasy Baseball is life for us diehards, but it’s vital to cherish more important things. Thank you all so much for the positive feedback on the article this year. I feel like you are part of my extended family. Your kind words have been heard and moving forward in future weeks, I’ll be putting out an occasional second article to accompany my MLB Weekly Preview. We’ve established there is far too much data and fantasy goodness for one piece to contain. So, for our next split report, look down on the farm, player breakdown or other topics you have grown accustomed to seeing in this opening segment, you will find them on a separate page. This way, nothing gets lost in the shuffle!
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: A little under half the league gets to play seven games this week. Be cognizant in setting your lineups while choking down some hot dogs! Interestingly, only four teams in the AL play seven, making NL-only managers and those who are more NL dominant in mixed leagues live the good life. However, no team plays five games this week, keeping things fairly balanced. The key will be targeting the good matchups and positive ballpark shifts.
A Few Areas to Target
Just Can’t Wait To Get On the Road Again
The White Sox hit the road all this week with a pair of three-game sets and are scheduled to face right-handed pitchers in every single game (albeit Tyler Wells will merely be an opener). Firstly, Minnesota and Baltimore are two of MLB’s worst pitching teams. According to FanGraphs, the Twinkies have the fourth-highest team ERA (5.06), and the O’s own the highest team ERA (5.48) this season. José Berríos will be a tall hurdle, but otherwise, Chicago bats will be in favorable situations. But which bats should we target? Remember that fact I slipped in there about all RHP? Fire up Tim Anderson (.296/.335/.422 vs. RHP), a returning Adam Eaton (.282/.362/.433 vs. RHP lifetime) and both Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal depending on health. Gavin Sheets is the hot pickup!
I Didn’t Hear No Bell!
Philadelphia is also road-bound for this week with four at Wrigley Field (more on that in a moment) and three at Fenway Park (definitely more on that in Interleague Outlook). Their pitching matchups are mostly mouthwateringly tantalizing, and they get park-factor boosts. Here’s who the Fightin’ Phils will face this week:
- Zach Davies: 6.20 xERA, 5.94 K/9, .377 xwOBA
- Jake Arrieta: 5.84 FIP, 4.21 BB/9, .520 xSLG, 47% HH, .373 wOBA vs. LHH
- Trevor Williams+: Potentially returning from appendectomy
- Adbert Alzolay: 4.90 FIP, 11.5% barrel rate (11th percentile), .468 xSLG
- Garrett Richards, Nick Pivetta & Martín Pérez (Pérez may be the best of the bunch)
Limping Into the Break
The Cubbies are at Wrigley all week to wrap up the first half (PHI – 4 & STL – 3). Just in time too, as they wrap up a 10-game road trip with eight straight losses (heading into 7/4). The offense as a whole has been down in June – .182 BA, .268 wOBA, 69 wRC+ and 27.8% K rate. Ballpark factors have been down so far at Wrigley (0.931 R, 0.871 HR) this season, but this is to be expected in the colder opening months of the season where the winds primarily inward blow. Looking at the extended forecast for Chicago, IL, the week begins with near 90° temps and dips to upper 70’s/low 80’s by week’s end. Should set up for prime hitting conditions for Chicago to go out on a high note.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. Luckily, we won’t have to deal with that this week, plus we gain extra Phillie and Red bats! For the Phillies, the only real uptick of note would be for Miller. He has served as DH or given defensive respite to Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen, which I can see in play for when Philadelphia faces Garrett Richards and old friend Nick Pivetta. On Sunday before the break, expect Philly to DH J.T. Realmuto and have Knapp behind the plate against southpaw Martín Pérez. The club plays seven games this week with six scheduled right-handed pitchers, making Miller (20% own) a viable stream in deep leagues when coupled with their trip to Fenway Park. FWIW, he does have 11 XBH in 160 plate appearances.
Nothing too exciting on the Reds front. Jesse Winker will undoubtedly DH, freeing up OF at-bats for Shogo or Aristides (remember that magical HR run?). For daily leaguers, Aquino makes for a sneaky lineup insertion on 7/5 (Mike Minor) or 7/6 (Kris Bubic), assuming he makes the starting nine. Brady Singer is the third arm Cincinnati will face. Lefty-hitting Akiyama could fare well if selected to start 7/7. Singer hasn’t been going deep into games recently as a means to either manage his workload or mask the shoulder issue he’s been dealing with since mid-June. If Shogo doesn’t get to Singer, he may still have an opportunity to produce against KC’s bullpen, ranked 20th in ERA with a 4.50.
*Rivalry Series: None
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Jacob deGrom1 (MIL,
PIT) ← Rainout pushes deGrom to Wed and last start before the break. Maybe we see him in Colorado after all? Don’t do it, Jake! Stay home and rest for us fantasy managers, ur um, I mean your team!!! - Brandon Woodruff2 (@NYM, CIN) ← Let’s try this again! Makes sense to deploy Woody on the Mets & Reds to finish the first half.
- Walker Buehler5 (@MIA, ARI)
- Joe Musgrove7 (WSH, COL)
- Kevin Gausman8 (STL, WSH)
- José Berríos13 (CHW, DET)
- Chris Bassitt15 (@HOU, @TEX)
- Pablo López24 (LAD, ATL)
- Aaron Nola26 (@CHC, @BOS)
- Trevor Rogers39 (LAD, ATL)
- Luis Castillo43 (@KC, @MIL)
- Max Fried44 (@PIT, @MIA)
- Luis Garcia45 (OAK, NYY)
- Dylan Cease53 (@MIN, @BAL)
- Tony Gonsolin57 (@MIA, ARI)
Other Options: Patrick Corbin59 (@SD, @SF), Rich Hill62 (CLE, TOR), Jon Gray63 (@ARI, @SD), Mike Minor87 (CIN, @CLE), Martín Pérez98 (@LAA, PHI), Steven Matz103 (@BAL, @TB), Jameson Taillon104 (@SEA, @HOU), Zach Davies109 (PHI, STL), Kwang Hyun Kim113 (@SF, @CHC), Ryan Weathers116 (WSH, COL), Bailey Ober126 (CHW, DET)
Danger Zone: Vladimir Gutierrez133 (@KC, @MIL), Justus Sheffield143 (NYY, LAA), Jon Lester147 (@SD, @SF), Kris BubicNR (CIN, @CLE), *Logan AllenNR & J.C. MejiaNR (@TB, KC), Matt MooreNR (@CHC, @BOS), Matt HarveyNR (TOR, CHW), Wily PeraltaNR & José UreñaNR (@TEX, @MIN), Chad KuhlNR & Chase De JongNR (ATL, @NYM), Jordan HollowayNR (LAD, ATL), Riley SmithNR (COL, @LAD)
*Zach Plesac could be activated from the IL to take one of these starts vs. KC. Will depend on results from second rehab start. *UPDATE: Plesac will be activated but will pitch on 7/8 in place of Eli Morgan. However, due to Tropical Storm Elsa’s path already postponing Cleveland’s game on 7/6, it will need to be made up during a doubleheader on 7/7. This negates Allen & Mejia’s second start, and Morgan will start Sunday. No fantasy-relevant arms here, but wanted to keep you in the know.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 5 – 11
*Trevor Bauer has been omitted from the rankings due to administrative leave during ongoing investigations. While I am a big proponent of ‘innocent until proven guilty,’ he will not pitch this week. He would have ranked #10, facing Arizona.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
According to manager Dave Martinez, the hottest hitter on the planet, Kyle Schwarber (right hamstring strain), could be looking at a lengthy absence. This is why we can’t have nice things. Schwarber was officially placed on the 10-day injured list 7/3 after MRI results showed a significant strain. No surgery is required, which is the silver lining, but the injury will take time to heal. In the meantime, Gerardo Parra could serve as the primary left fielder going forward. Get ready to have more Baby Shark in your lives…
José Ramírez (elbow) was scratched on 7/2 due to left elbow soreness, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports. JRam was dinged up while diving for a ball the day prior and remained out of the lineup on 7/3. Manager Terry Francona said the star third baseman was “minimally better” but not yet ready to play because he has pain when extending on a swing. Cleveland has activated Franmil Reyes from the injured list on the bright side, and he batted fourth on 7/2.
Zac Gallen again pops up on our injury report, but at least this time, it is not an arm injury. Gallen exited his last start on 7/2 with right hamstring tightness, Steve Gilbert reports. Trainers came to the mound after Gallen pulled up lame on his delivery, and he was yanked after giving up three runs on five hits and three walks while striking out three in two-plus innings. After further testing, it was determined the 25-year-old pitcher is dealing with a “very mild” strain, yet he is back on the IL for 10 days at least. Not surprising, as this way Gallen can rest and rehab till after the all-star break.
Madison Bumgarner (left shoulder inflammation) threw a 52-pitch bullpen session on 7/2 after a 34-pitch simulated game on 6/28 and could make a rehab appearance as soon as this week. He has been out since June 2.
Tyler O’Neill was plunked by a pitch during his 7/2 contest in the top of the sixth. The 90.6mph four-seam fastball by Chi Chi González struck the pinky of O’Neill’s right hand, and after initially staying on as a runner, he followed the all too common path of leaving the game when it’s time to play defense, and the digit is not working. He was devoid of the lineup on 7/3, but X-rays revealed no structural damage.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAM OF THE WEEK
→ Kolby Allard108, LH TEX (DET, OAK; 41% owned) – Allard threw another quality start (QS) his last time out against Oakland. It was the second in his last three outings. At 41% rostered, he has been a usable option. A large component of this recommendation stems from using a left-handed pitcher against Detroit, which has been a running theme all season. So why stop now? The Tigers are still firmly entrenched at the bottom of the league in strikeout rate (29.0%, worst), ISO (.133, second-worst), wOBA (.287, second-worst) and wRC+ (79, worst) vs. LHP. The Oakland game does give some pause, especially when considering it will be his third start against the club in the last four (also faced Oakland 6/24 and was hit around a bit more, losing the QS).
With the Athletics offense swooning a bit of late, I’m willing to roll the dice on Allard. And especially so in daily leagues. The first start is just.. too… SWEEEEEEET!
Honorable Mention: Tylor MegillNR, RH NYM (MIL, PIT; 18% owned) – One for deep leaguers and not the faint of heart. Milwaukee has been raging hot, and Pittsburgh strikes out at a bot-5 rate, so there are warts to Megill. However, everything else against the Pirates screams money as they are “neck-and-neck” with Detroit in terms of futility, facing lefty or righty. The Brewers offer a much more formidable challenge right now, scoring double-digit runs in four of their last eight ball games and 71 runs overall in that same span. To Megill’s credit, he’s faced a strong lineup in Atlanta twice and struck out 12 Brave batters in 9.1 IP (30.0%). He generated 50% ground balls with a sharp, biting 87mph slider along with getting a good amount of swings and misses (47.4 Whiff%). Brewers struggle with sliders (.190 BA/.333 SLG/32.2% K).
Megill works both sides of the plate well. His 97mph four-seamer has up-and-in action to right-handers, and his 85mph changeup has great disparity from his fastball. It’s a great weapon vs. LHH.
Solo Start: Alec Mills141, RH CHC (PHI; 30% owned)
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, July 11, 2021
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) | 7-4 | 4.14 | 3.93 | 3.79 | 3.69 | 29.4% | 9.8% | 35.4% | 40.7% | ||||||||
| Spenser Watkins (RHP, BAL) | 1-0 | 1.50 | 5.48 | 6.50 | 2.70 | 8.7% | 13.0% | 22.2% | 27.8% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Chase De Jong (RHP, PIT) | 1-3 | 5.08 | 5.19 | 4.91 | 4.58 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 46.7% | 45.2% | ||||||||
| Aaron Loup* (LHP, NYM) | 3-0 | 1.73 | 2.33 | 2.52 | 2.70 | 30.8% | 5.8% | 32.3% | 19.0% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Robbie Ray* (LHP, TOR) | 6-4 | 3.36 | 3.23 | 3.20 | 4.16 | 31.1% | 6.3% | 48.5% | 39.7% | ||||||||
| Rich Hill (LHP, TB) | 6-3 | 3.65 | 4.38 | 4.21 | 4.10 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 36.6% | 40.3% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
(RHP, PHI) | 6-5 | 4.53 | 3.36 | 3.27 | 3.72 | 29.5% | 5.4% | 36.8% | 38.5% | ||||||||
| Nick Pivetta* (RHP, BOS) | 7-3 | 4.09 | 4.34 | 4.11 | 4.16 | 28.0% | 10.8% | 41.3% | 46.4% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Ian Anderson (RHP, ATL) | 5-4 | 3.27 | 3.61 | 4.03 | 3.88 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 40.5% | 28.3% | ||||||||
| Pablo López (RHP, MIA) | 4-5 | 2.94 | 3.39 | 3.51 | 3.41 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| PPD* | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Carlos Hernández (RHP, KC) | 1-0 | 4.98 | 4.41 | 4.07 | 4.27 | 30.0% | 15.0% | 44.4% | 41.5% | ||||||||
| Eli Morgan (RHP, CLE) | 1-3 | 8.44 | 4.88 | 4.37 | 5.95 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 40.6% | 55.2% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Wily Peralta (RHP, DET) | 2-1 | 2.14 | 4.13 | 4.17 | 4.99 | 17.1% | 6.1% | 40.3% | 27.4% | ||||||||
| José Berríos (RHP, MIN) | 7-3 | 3.36 | 3.52 | 3.71 | 4.07 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 37.2% | 31.0% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Jameson Taillon (RHP, NYY) | 4-4 | 5.05 | 4.29 | 3.98 | 4.22 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 40.3% | 44.1% | ||||||||
| Framber Valdez (LHP, HOU) | 5-1 | 2.86 | 3.18 | 3.28 | 3.05 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 44.4% | 14.9% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Luis Castillo (RHP, CIN) | 3-10 | 4.81 | 3.94 | 4.33 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 38.7% | 25.2% | ||||||||
| Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) | 7-4 | 2.10 | 2.91 | 3.13 | 2.54 | 30.7% | 6.1% | 32.0% | 30.6% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) | 7-5 | 3.58 | 3.78 | 4.04 | 3.77 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 37.2% | 28.2% | ||||||||
| Trevor Williams (RHP, CHC) | 3-2 | 5.51 | 4.00 | 4.19 | 4.70 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 47.2% | 30.2% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Chris Bassitt* (RHP, OAK) | 9-2 | 3.41 | 3.90 | 3.77 | 3.26 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 33.1% | 36.8% | ||||||||
| Kolby Allard* (LHP, TEX) | 2-5 | 3.45 | 3.92 | 3.71 | 3.80 | 24.6% | 5.5% | 36.6% | 40.5% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Erick Fedde (RHP, WSH) | 4-5 | 4.53 | 4.36 | 4.68 | 4.36 | 20.6% | 10.3% | 39.1% | 31.7% | ||||||||
| Kevin Gausman (RHP, SF) | 8-3 | 1.74 | 3.36 | 3.33 | 2.70 | 30.0% | 6.5% | 36.4% | 40.5% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) | 5-7 | 4.60 | 3.99 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 20.5% | 5.9% | 40.3% | 32.4% | ||||||||
| Tony Gonsolin (RHP, LAD) | 1-0 | 2.11 | 4.87 | 4.76 | 2.74 | 27.5% | 15.4% | 36.5% | 48.1% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Jon Gray (RHP, COL) | 5-6 | 3.94 | 4.21 | 4.43 | 3.51 | 21.5% | 9.4% | 36.2% | 31.0% | ||||||||
| Ryan Weathers (LHP, SD) | 4-2 | 3.02 | 4.60 | 4.63 | 4.73 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 44.6% | 36.8% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| José Suarez (LHP, LAA) | 3-2 | 2.37 | 4.18 | 4.12 | 3.46 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 36.1% | 34.1% | ||||||||
| Hector Santiago* (LHP, SEA) | 1-1 | 3.38 | 3.55 | 3.33 | 2.68 | 29.8% | 9.6% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!
