In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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Welcome to the 2022 MLB Season!
We are the few, we are the proud. We are fantasy baseball managers! I mean no disrespect to our brave men and women of the Marines with this comparison. Without their service, we fat slobs could not enjoy the freedoms we have today. And in these times, I have learned freedom is not free.
Although, fantasy baseball is indeed a grind of the mind. Who will be diligent enough to maintain a steadfast pace throughout 162? That is always the question year after year. The past two seasons have had their fair share of “extracurricular activities,” creating further hurdles to attain our prize. None of you made them an excuse. Do me a solid? If you won your league (or multiple leagues), raise your arm. Are you doing it? Great, that’s a fair amount of raised arms out there! Keep them raised. Now, if you finished first, second or third in your league, raise your arm on up too. Shoot, some of you in the back are gonna have to stand on your chair, so I can see! Ok, I can’t really “see” you right now, but then again, I can. Just look at these testimonials!
We are not free of challenges for the 2022 season. The pandemic is simmering down, for now🤞, so hopefully we can get back to normal scheduling and less turbulent roster management. Gone are the ways of the seven-inning doubleheader, robbing us of vital at-bats/innings, yet the “Manfred Man” still resides for one more season. While it wouldn’t be a surprise if the league and union revisit it down the line, the ghost-runner rule has only been approved for 2022. And speaking of the infinite wisdom of the lazy bureaucrats who negotiated our new CBA, due to the tardiness and lack of compromise on both sides, Spring Training was delayed enough to affect the opening month of the season. Originally slated for March 31, Opening Day comes a week later. Additionally, they agreed to expand active rosters from 26 to 28 players this season until May 1.
Here’s the logic. A shorter ramp-up period does not allow players enough reps to get ready for the season, especially coming off two irregular years. Injuries were already a concern from the past two seasons, and the self-imposed delay only exasperates this. Continue to build depth for your team through multi-position guys and balanced lineups as has been our focus the past two years. By adding a couple players in the early going and limiting the potential for marathon games, the league and union give managers some extra flexibility in keeping playing time in check. Furthermore, teams can carry any number of pitchers in April. Come May, however, MLB is instituting its 13-pitcher limit, which was originally slated for the 2020 season. That’ll eventually be a challenge for clubs, but they’ll have some extra leeway on the mound for the first couple weeks of the season, and so will we.
While it will be nice to have two more rosterable players per team – players who otherwise may have been sent down to the minors – it won’t last long. And as Ray points out in his podcast, the first month of minor-league options won’t count towards the yearly limit of five as decided in the new CBA. With one week to go till the season began, the powers that be in MLB decided this. One week!!! Is Major League Baseball being run by a guy who says he is a fantasy guru yet throws together a home league at the last minute, changing the rules all the way? Maybe. The league also confirmed that if a player is in the game as a pitcher and DH but gets removed as a pitcher, he can stay in as DH. Those who roster Shohei Ohtani are pleased; others are not.
Finally, the last rule change that was announced a week before the season affects pitchers as well. The minimum stay for pitchers on the injured list is back to 15 days, but starting May 1… April, it’s still 10 days. It’s a new normal. Stay diligent!
I began this introduction with the word proud. I am so proud of this subscriber base, and after reading the influx of activity in our Discord from new subscribers and long-timers alike, the good times will continue to roll here at Fantasy Guru! My pledge is to give my best every day to provide the tools for victory. Alright, here we go. . .
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover in an adjoining article, drop a line in Discord or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: The NL has many more Opening Week four-game sets that complete in the first scoring period, with only the Angels/Astros series wrapping by Sunday. The Mets travel to our nation’s capital for four against the Nats. The defending champion Atlanta Braves host the fire sale that is the Reds. The Friars embark upon a mighty quest in the Arizona desert. And what’s Opening Week without four day games at Wrigley Field? The Brew Crew invade for four. UPDATE: D’Backs go from a 1-3 lefty/righty opposing pitcher split to 2-2.
A Few Areas to Target
Yippee Ki Yay, mkdsur fjhxvr! Too soon?
The Dodgers open the season in Coors Field for three. I’ll save ya the time of scrolling down to the new Park Factors section of the article… they favor hitting! Now enter the mass of humanity that is LA’s killer lineup. Fire up your Dodger Blue and set Hollywood ablaze. They’re scheduled to face Kyle Freeland (4.33 ERA in 2021), Germán Márquez (4.40) and Antonio Senzatela (4.42). While the Dodgers will have a considerable upper hand in starting pitching throughout the series, I’m still bullish to play Kris Bryant in his new duds. It feels like that moment when Optimus Prime was resurrected by the power of the Matrix, or when Nick Cage steps off the bus to a cool breeze in Con Air.
Land of the Brave
Atlanta opens the season with a four-game set against the Reds in the cozy confines of Truist Park (see ‘Important Park Factors’ below). Adam Duvall (52% owned in redraft, 86% in dynasty) is on a heater this spring, batting .318 (7-for-22) through 10 games with one home run. The lineup around him will offer opportunities to drive in runs as evidenced by the 113 RBI last year, a career-high. His 38 long flies were also a career-high, and Duvall will look to keep the good time rolling. In addition, the heart of the order – Ozzie Albies, newly-prized Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna – will be looking to feast against a somewhat depleted Cincy rotation.
Rivalry Series
It’s apropos the new season will begin with Yankees/Red Sox. Is there a fiercer rivalry in baseball? All of sports?? The feuds run deep for more than 100 years. These games will provide some fantasy goodness!
The Phillies vs. A’s series is one of historical context. Maybe if we were playing fantasy baseball from 1901 to 1955, we’d have more fired-up plays. The rivalry was significant not only because both teams played in Philadelphia, but because of the strong competition between the National and American Leagues. The competition between the leagues was so strong that the A’s and Phillies did not play at all from 1901 to 1902 because of legal warring between the two parties. “Ok, enough with the history lesson, Pov!” My ultimate point here is to look at the state of both teams in 2022. Philly will be looking to flex that lineup against the likes of Frankie Montas (ok, he’s good), Cole Irvin and Daulton Jefferies. Check, please!
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2021 Statistics
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
None in this first short scoring period.
Other Options: N/A
Danger Zone: N/A
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 7 – 10
Pitching Spotlight
Zack Wheeler had his Spring Training delayed with a nagging shoulder. Through hard work and multiple throwing sessions on the B-field with intrasquad games, he’s currently up to a 45-pitch count. All signs point towards avoiding a trip to the injured list, even with the 10-day availability. His next trip to the bump will go down on 4/7 in Lakeland, and the goal is “around 60 pitches,” according to Phillies manager Joe Girardi. Philadelphia opens its season on 4/8, hosting their once fellow city dwellers Oakland Athletics (see ‘A Few Areas to Target’ above). Their rotation lines up as Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin in that series, followed by Ranger Suárez opening the next series vs. New York. Wheeler is then expected to make his 2022 debut against the Mets on 4/12.
Wheels was my first SP selected in the Rotowire Online Championship (round 3, pick 33), so all of this was music to my ears. Either way, you best believe I backed myself up with Gibson (v OAK) for the first scoring period.
As for more arms in the top-90 scheduled for next week, new teammates Alek Manoah and Yusei Kikuchi will pitch in the next scoring period, as does Luis Garcia, Luis Patiño, Zac Gallen, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Carlos Hernández, Tristan McKenzie, Jameson Taillon and Blake Snell. The latter is still being stretched out. Big surprise! UPDATE: After the Paddack deal, Padres announce Snell will stretch it out in the big leagues and will start 4/10 @ARI. However, he should be limited to four innings. Additionally, D’Backs will go from a 1-3 lefty/right split to 2-2.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
What was feared by drafters when clicking on the names of the two aces in Queens became a reality mighty quick. Like a shot heard ‘round the world – the polar opposite of this one – Jacob deGrom was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his right scapula and will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com was first to report. The good news is it is a bone injury and not muscular or tendon related as deGrom dealt with in 2021. However, it is another injury to add to the backside of the resume. He’ll be re-evaluated in a month and will be out till June at a minimum. If I can add a glimmer of hope towards an early recovery, Brandon McCarthy, who experienced multiple scapular injuries during his career, downplayed the severity on Twitter, writing: “this really isn’t a big deal.”
Regarding Max Scherzer (hamstring), a bullpen session on 4/5 will determine his status for the Mets’ opening series in Washington. If the hammy checks out fine, he’ll most likely start one of the first two games, and a nostalgic one at that. He would face his former team for the first time since the Nationals traded him last season. Other options for Opening Day and Game 2 are Tylor Megill or the tandem of Trevor Williams & David Peterson. Mets manager Buck Showalter confirmed that Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker will pitch Games 3, 4 and 5 of the season, respectively.
UPDATE (4/5, 10:30 am): Scherzer threw his bullpen session in the early morning hours and away from prying eyes in an indoor batting cage. He said afterward that the session was “really good” and that he expects to pitch FRIDAY in Game 2. The final hurdle will be a fielding test on 4/7.
Another top arm to hit the shelf before the games count is Lance Lynn (slight tendon tear). He was pulled from a Spring Training start on 4/2 with discomfort in the right knee. Later, an MRI showed the extent of the damage. Lynn will undergo a 30-minute surgery in Chicago on 4/5, general manager Rick Hahn announced. By the sound of things, it doesn’t seem too invasive, but Lynn will be shut down from mound work for four weeks. He’ll be sidelined for two months total to rehab, long toss by end of April or early May, and build up for a starter’s workload. Lynn dealt with right knee inflammation during the 2021 season and spent 8/29 to 9/11 on the injured list. Reynaldo López and Vince Velasquez should be in the mix for the final spot in the White Sox rotation while Lynn is sidelined.
Jack Flaherty (shoulder) – Placed on the 10-day IL 4/4, which will soon be transferred to the 15-day, as Jack’s shoulder is expected to keep him out into May. He received a PRP injection on 3/18 to calm inflammation in his right shoulder. Soon for a throwing program, but he will need to replicate Spring Training.
Mike Clevinger (sore right knee) was scratched from his scheduled Spring Training start on 4/3 against the A’s and is expected to begin the season on the IL. This comes as the now 31-year-old pitcher (I know, right!) continues to build his way back from 2020 Tommy John surgery.
“It felt like we were in a rush job with him, to begin with,” manager Bob Melvin said. “So it allows us to kind of smooth things out and slow it down some. We don’t feel like it’s a significant thing. But it actually might be a little bit of a blessing, because it did feel like we were rushing him a little bit.”
AJ Cassavell, MLB.com
The Sean Manaea deal is making a whole lotta sense now. Fortunately, this news is not a setback in Clevinger’s TJ surgery. However, the severity of his knee injury is unknown at the time of this publication.
Some more good news of sorts. . .
Ian Anderson left his Spring Training start on 4/4 due to a blister on this right big toe (and not his finger thankfully). He is expected to be fine for his regular-season debut against Cincinnati. Braves still may err on the side of caution when it comes to innings/pitch count.
Luis Castillo (shoulder) begins the year on the IL but is aiming for a mid-to-late April return from shoulder soreness. Reds manager David Bell said that Castillo will probably be limited to 3-to-4 innings when he ultimately returns. That means, for our purposes, Castillo will be difficult to activate until May. The same holds true for teammate Mike Minor (shoulder). Minor is traveling with the team for the opening series in Atlanta and has been steadily throwing, completing a live BP session on 4/4. Meanwhile, Castillo will continue his throwing progression.
Moving onto the bats, Adley Rutschman (triceps) won’t be ready for Opening Day or the start of the minor-league season, Orioles GM Mike Elias confirmed on 4/4. He is making significant progress from a right tricep strain, resuming baseball activities like hitting off a tee and light throwing. His awaited arrival to major league baseball is on pause until at least May, and he should get in minor-league game action in two weeks.
More bad news for the Mets as Brandon Nimmo (neck) won’t play in the last two games of Spring Training due to a stiff neck, an issue that has plagued the 29-year-old outfielder. Buck’s logic is the rest will do a body good so that Nimmo can man center field on Opening Day. If he can’t go, Mark Canha or Starling Marte can cover center field, providing at-bats for Dom Smith in the process.
Lastly, Josh Rojas will be out for “weeks, not days” after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 right oblique strain, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. Horrible news for some fantasy managers who drafted Rojas for his multi-position eligibility (2B, SS, MI, OF, UT) along with the likelihood to add 3B and CI. Piecoro also tweets, “Drew Ellis, who was previously optioned to Triple-A, has a locker again in the big league clubhouse. He seems like the most logical guy to step in and claim at-bats at third base.”
Added to the list… Yoan Moncada, 10-day IL: Grade 1 oblique strain – Expected return in three weeks – Jake Burger & Andrew Vaughn could see time at 3B, but why would they not use newly-acquired swiss army knife, Josh Harrison? That’s my lean.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Hunter Greene78, RH CIN (@ATL; 25-31% owned in redraft, 86% in dynasty) – Not a big fan of streaming anyone in the opening scoring period. If you wanted them on your team, you would have drafted them. But if we are being honest, you should have drafted Greene. Yet, roughly about 70% of managers did not in most redraft leagues. However, that number is going down as I type these words. Maybe most drafted before manager David Bell announced Greene made the starting rotation and will pitch in the Reds’ fourth game of the season on 4/10, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. Greene was slated to battle Nick Lodolo, Reiver Sanmartin and Vladimir Gutierrez for two available rotation spots, but with the Castillo/Minor news, there’s plenty of room at the dinner table. Lodolo will head to Triple-A until a fifth starter is needed on 4/16.
Thanks to Tommy John surgery in 2019 and the pandemic, the 22-year-old 2017 first-round draft pick lost two consecutive seasons of development time. Needless to say, he was chomping at the bit to get back on the mound. Between Triple-A Louisville and Double-A Chattanooga in 2021, Greene posted a 3.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 139:39 K:BB across 106.1 innings. He illustrated poise and retention with his fastball and hard slider, striking out Triple-A batters at a 28.6% clip on top of whiffing Double-A batsmen at a 37% K rate. If this translates to the majors, look the fuck out! And why not, with triple-digit heat? My only reserve is potential workload limits and not being allowed to pitch deeper into games.
Honorable Mention: N/A
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, April 10, 2022
(stats listed from 2021)
1:05 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Daulton Jefferies* (RHP, OAK) | 5-1 | 4.91 | 4.94 | — | — | 20.5% | 3.3% | — | 35.1% | ||||||||
Zach Eflin (RHP, PHI) | 4-7 | 4.17 | 3.61 | 3.81 | 3.84 | 22.4% | 3.6% | 38.9% | 32.9% |
1:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Tyler Wells* (RHP, BAL) | 2-3 | 4.11 | 4.11 | 3.37 | 3.60 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 41.1% | 56.6% | ||||||||
Corey Kluber (RHP, TB) | 5-3 | 3.83 | 4.38 | 4.37 | 4.01 | 24.0% | 9.7% | 34.4% | 37.9% |
1:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Michael Kopech* (RHP, CHW) | 4-3 | 3.50 | 2.99 | 2.70 | 2.72 | 36.1% | 8.4% | 33.8% | 43.5% | ||||||||
Tarik Skubal (LHP, DET) | 8-12 | 4.34 | 4.06 | 3.92 | 5.58 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 45.1% | 41.4% |
1:35 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Carlos Carrasco* (RHP, NYM) | 1-5 | 6.04 | 4.32 | 4.44 | 4.69 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 38.5% | 36.3% | ||||||||
Erick Fedde (RHP, WSH) | 7-9 | 5.47 | 4.06 | 4.30 | 4.86 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 40.0% | 31.3% |
1:35 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Hunter Greene* (RHP, CIN) | 5-8 | 4.13 | 4.04 | — | — | 28.6% | 9.1% | — | 38.9% | ||||||||
Ian Anderson* (RHP, ATL) | 9-5 | 3.58 | 3.96 | 4.38 | 4.27 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 38.7% | 30.9% |
1:37 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Spencer Howard* (RHP, TEX) | 0-5 | 7.43 | 4.98 | 4.80 | 4.63 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 35.4% | 40.4% | ||||||||
Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP, TOR) | 14-10 | 4.37 | 3.94 | 4.17 | 4.45 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 41.6% | 33.1% |
2:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Cal Quantrill (RHP, CLE) | 8-3 | 2.89 | 4.43 | 4.52 | 3.89 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 34.2% | 34.6% | ||||||||
Kris Bubic (LHP, KC) | 6-7 | 4.43 | 4.57 | 4.73 | 5.33 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 39.6% | 32.0% |
2:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) | 10-6 | 3.96 | 5.16 | 4.94 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 37.0% | 47.9% | ||||||||
Bailey Ober (RHP, MIN) | 3-3 | 4.19 | 4.01 | 3.82 | 4.54 | 25.3% | 5.0% | 41.8% | 45.8% |
2:15 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Bryse Wilson (RHP, PIT) | 3-7 | 5.35 | 5.10 | 5.27 | 5.62 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 42.3% | 38.4% | ||||||||
Steven Matz* (LHP, STL) | 14-7 | 3.82 | 3.94 | 4.12 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 37.9% | 32.4% |
2:20 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) | 10-5 | 2.81 | 3.66 | 3.40 | 2.68 | 33.6% | 9.7% | 31.1% | 47.1% | ||||||||
Marcus Stroman (RHP, CHC) | 10-13 | 3.02 | 3.57 | 3.95 | 4.30 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 41.8% | 26.4% |
3:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Julio Urías (LHP, LAD) | 20-3 | 2.96 | 3.73 | 3.64 | 3.08 | 26.2% | 5.1% | 30.3% | 41.2% | ||||||||
Antonio Senzatela (RHP, COL) | 4-10 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 4.44 | 4.30 | 15.7% | 4.8% | 42.7% | 26.8% |
4:05 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Trevor Rogers (LHP, MIA) | 7-8 | 2.64 | 3.54 | 3.72 | 3.37 | 28.5% | 8.4% | 36.3% | 35.6% | ||||||||
Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, SF) | 13-7 | 3.17 | 3.95 | 4.11 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 38.5% | 36.4% |
4:07 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
José Urquidy (RHP, HOU) | 8-3 | 3.62 | 4.39 | 4.27 | 3.95 | 21.3% | 4.5% | 35.9% | 45.6% | ||||||||
José Suarez (LHP, LAA) | 8-8 | 3.75 | 4.33 | 4.44 | 4.09 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 34.4% | 32.6% |
4:10 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Blake Snell (LHP, SD) | 7-6 | 4.20 | 3.74 | 4.02 | 4.86 | 30.9% | 12.5% | 40.9% | 37.3% | ||||||||
Caleb Smith* (LHP, ARI) | 4-9 | 4.83 | 5.26 | 4.68 | 4.15 | 24.8% | 12.6% | 29.0% | 52.3% |
7:08 PM EDT | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Tanner Houck* (RHP, BOS) | 1-5 | 3.52 | 3.20 | 3.28 | 3.20 | 30.5% | 7.4% | 35.1% | 32.1% | ||||||||
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY) | 6-7 | 3.83 | 3.93 | 4.07 | 4.06 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 36.5% | 36.3% |