MLB Weekly Preview: 5/1 – 5/7

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: Talk about a balance of the schedule! Only six teams play seven (or more) games this week: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals, Mets and Braves (thanks to their wrap-around series). The remaining 24 teams play six or fewer games, including two teams out West who get the short end of the stick thanks to a two-game Interleague series (see below).

Five-Game Weeks: TEX (ARI – 2, @LAA – 3), ARI (@TEX – 2, WSH – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Quick Hitters…

• BOS (TOR – 4, @PHI – 3; 2 LHP / 5 RHP) & TOR (@BOS – 4, @PIT – 3; 7 RHP): Will they “ride the bus” together to Pennsylvania? BOS Stream Options = Triston Casas (28% rostered in Yahoo, 33% in ESPN, 82% in Fantrax Dynasty), Jarren Duran (31% Yahoo, 8% ESPN, 58% Fantrax), Reese McGuire (1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 9% Fantrax; if you need a second catcher in a deep league). For TOR, ride a struggling Daulton Varsho!
• NYM (ATL – 2, @DET – 3, COL – 3): A wrap-around series with a doubleheader due to rain against the Braves gives both teams’ hitters a week leading eight games. The Mets do have a fairly even righty/lefty opposing pitcher split with three LHP (who they struggle against), but most are low-quality arms. 
• ATL (@NYM – 2, @MIA – 3, BAL – 3; 1 LHP / 7 RHP): Good week in store for the likes of Matt Olson, a returning Michael Harris II and Sam Hilliard (4% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 18% Fantrax) truthers. Hilliard has a .319/.385/.532 slash vs. RHP this season (52 PA) and could be very serviceable this week. Meanwhile, Eddie Rosario (2% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 21% Fantrax) is catching ABs no matter what the pitcher’s handedness due to Marcell Ozuna being as cold as a popsicle. 
• CHC (@WSH – 4, MIA – 3; 2 LHP / 5 RHP): Cody Bellinger’s renaissance continues. What was once thought of as an aberration has held serve in 88 April at-bats: .295-6-16-21-4 with a .956 OPS. Expect the good times to continue rolling in Week 6 of the fantasy season. His presence, albeit not at the level of 2019, provides the cherry on top of what is a fine 1-5.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Light on options this week, so we’ll scour the Washington Nationals (CHC – 4, @ARI – 3; 2 L / 5 R). They’re set to face the following pitchers:

• Drew Smyly
• Hayden Wesneski
• Marcus Stroman
• Caleb Kilian?
• Tommy Henry
• Ryne Nelson
• Zac Gallen

I only see two arms to potentially fear here: Stro & Gallen. Consider streaming Luis García (6% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 52% Fantrax) and Jeimer Candelario (5% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 46% Fantrax). Also, Dominic Smith (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 19% Fantrax) in deeper leagues is an advanced dart throw.

Places to Avoid

This week, I would avoid the guessing game that is the San Francisco daily lineup for various reasons. First, they’ll see an even mix of starting pitchers (two lefties / four righties), a platoon nightmare. Remove a game or two from a batter’s six-game schedule, and this makes for a futile effort in a weekly league. Second, the quality of pitching they’ll face is quite exquisite.

• Luis Garcia
• Hunter Brown
• Framber Valdez
• Corbin Burnes
• Colin Rea (meh)
• Eric Lauer

Lastly, when we look at current Statcast Park Factors, neither Minute Maid Park nor Oracle Park is popping off the page. Minute Maid is a better hitter’s park than these factors lead on in the season’s opening month. However, you have to be able to hit the ball to create positive regression. #RollSafe

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 4/29/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole¹ (CLE, @TBR) ⬅️ See Tweets below
2. Sandy Alcantara⁷ (ATL, @CHC)
3. Shane McClanahan⁹ (PIT, NYY) ⬅️ TBR rework their pitching rotation.
4. Julio Urías¹¹ (PHI, @SDP) Read below
5. Spencer Strider¹² (@NYM, BAL)
6. Zac Gallen¹⁷ (@TEX, WSH) ⬅️ We knew of Lovullo’s commitment to a five-man rotation despite only playing five games this week. As a result, Brandon Pfaadt gets the call on 5/3, which removes Gallen’s second start this week. Pfaadt will be on extra rest (his day to throw would have been 5/2).
7. Logan Gilbert²⁶ (@OAK, HOU) ⬅️ Prospect Bryce Miller enters the SEA rotation on 5/2 for an extended try-out, pushing everyone back a day and netting a two-start week in his MLB debut. He’s never pitched above Double-A, so while I’m for streaming him against another Double-A team (A’s), I’m not here for committing to the two-step.
8. Luis Garcia^IL (SFG, @SEA) ⬅️ Hunter Brown⁴⁸ would get the second start. UPDATE: HOU will call-up J.P. France to make MLB debut and help the beleaguered HOU staff.
9. Joe Ryan³⁵ (@CHW, @CLE)
10. Blake Snell⁵⁴ (CIN, LAD)
11. Jon Gray⁵⁵ (ARI, @LAA) ⬅️ Dane Dunning replaces Jacob deGrom on 5/5 despite only five games this week, which takes away Gray’s second start this week.
12. José Berríos⁵⁸ (ARI, @LAA)
13. Graham Ashcraft⁵⁹ (@SDP, CHW) ⬅️ CIN reworking rotation and move Ashcraft (who missed time on Bereavement List) ahead of Luke Weaver. They will also skip Luis Cessa’s next turn with off days in schedule.
14. Hayden Wesneski⁶⁷ (@WSH, MIA) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL
15. MacKenzie Gore⁶⁸ (CHC, @ARI)
16. Bryce Elder⁷⁰ (@MIA, BAL)
17. Mason Miller⁷¹ (CLE, @TBR) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL HM
18. Roansy Contreras⁷² (@TBR, TOR) ⬅️ Tough Task for Roansy, but the 23-year-old Pirate hurler has delivered against stiff competition this year. This decision will haunt me till the lineup locks!

*Tony Gonsolin⁵⁷ (PHI, @SDP) could pick up a second start if Noah Syndergaard¹⁰⁶ gets bumped from LAD’s rotation. However, even if Thor is ousted from Asgard, I’m skeptical the club will push Tony G at this point of his early return from the IL. UPDATE: Urias will get the second start. #DaveRoberts

Other Options: Domingo Germán⁷⁴ (CLE, @TBR), Cal Quantrill⁷⁸ (@NYY, MIN), Tanner Houck⁸⁶ (TOR, @PHI), Drew Smyly⁸⁷ (@WSH, MIA) POV SPECIAL HM 

Danger Zone: Taijuan Walker⁸⁸ (@LAD, BOS – Check Heath), Tylor Megill⁹⁰ & (possibly) Joey Lucchesi¹³⁸ (ATL, COL), Yusei Kikuchi⁹³ (@BOS, @PIT)*, Michael Kopech⁹⁸ (MIN, @CIN), Corey Kluber¹⁰³ (TOR, @PHI), Ross Stripling¹¹⁰ (@HOU, MIL), Michael Lorenzen¹¹³ (NYM, @STL)^{Due to PPD}, Steven Matz¹²⁸ (LAA, DET), Tyler Wells¹³⁴ (@KCR, @ATL), Ryan Feltner^NR (MIL, @NYM)

*Kikuchi has a 3.00 ERA & 1.11 WHIP with better than a K an inning… I could give a rat’s ass! He also has a 4.68 xERA, 4.84 FIP, 3.60 xFIP & 3.63 SIERA. The ERA is going up as soon as he loses his command of the strike zone, which will happen in 3… 2… 1.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 1 – 7

*UPDATE: Graham Ashcraft was reinstated from the Bereavement List on 4/30. (5/1) Kodai Senga’s start this week shifts to a home game vs. COL (even better as it makes him a Top-30 pitcher this week; see Joel Sherman’s tweet below)! (5/2) Merrill Kelly pushes a day to face Washington due to Brandon Pfaadt’s callup for 5/3. We’ll take that over @TEX, who poses fierce competition for Pfaadt’s MLB debut.

Pitcher Spotlight: Spencer Strider

“Strider’s latest effort makes him the only pitcher in Braves history to record at least nine strikeouts in nine consecutive starts. The 24-year-old hurler entered Monday sharing the franchise record with John Smoltz. Another Hall of Famer, Nolan Ryan, owns the MLB record with the 11-game streak he produced in 1977.”

~Mark Bowman, MLB.com

Yup, Strider’s pretty good and so far avoiding the dreaded Sophomore Slump, not counting his 2.1 2021 innings. We lost his two-step last week due to the rainy weather in New York, but thanks to the doubleheader on 5/1, we get a second chance for fantasy points and he for superstardom! 

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Aaron Judge, Yankees – DTD, Right Hip Strain

Judge has a mild strain at the top of his right hip and could require a stint on the injured list. The Yankees plan to wait a couple days to see if he continues to improve and hope to decide on whether to put him on the IL by 5/1 (hopefully before lock ??). Judge left the Yankees’ 4/27 win over the Rangers after a hard slide into first base, a day after he appeared to hurt his right wrist sliding into a tag in Minnesota. The hip issue is also a repercussion of the awkward slide against the Twins, Judge said. Even though it would stink for now, put him on the IL and get him right for when it counts, for the Yankees and our fantasy teams.

Julio Rodríguez, Mariners – DTD, Lower Back Tightness

Rodríguez was removed from his game against the Blue Jays on 4/29 during the bottom of the sixth inning due to his back issue. He is also out of the lineup on 4/30 yet is considered day-to-day. Although bear in mind, the star center fielder was placed on the 10-day injured list last September with a lower back strain.

Jacob deGrom, Rangers – 15-day IL, Right Elbow Inflammation

DeGrom was placed on the 15-day IL on 4/29 with right elbow inflammation. The right-hander left his start against the Yankees in the fourth inning with what the Rangers called right forearm tightness. DeGrom left his 4/17 start against the Royals with right wrist soreness but returned to start against the A’s on 4/23. #NewUniSameStory The timing isn’t terrible for the Rangers, at least for this week. With a five-game week, they can get by with four starters (reason I have Jon Gray as a two-start). When they need a fifth starter (no off-days from 5/5 to 5/17), Dane Dunning is the likely candidate after coming on in relief of deGrom and tossing 3.1 IP (52 pitches) and netting the W.

Kenta Maeda, Twins – 15-day IL, Right Triceps Strain/Arm Fatigue/Body Failure (Retro 4/27)

At this point, we might as well keep Maeda as a permanent fixture here in the Injured List Report. Bailey Ober (see Pov Special), who was already with the team, will man his post. Also, if further help is needed with an ailing Tyler Mahle (DTD, Posterior Impingement of the Right Elbow), Louie Varland is on the ready, and his schedule aligns perfectly with Mahle’s schedule.

Update:

Medical Updates…

• Justin Verlander, Mets – Recovering from a low-grade teres major strain, Verlander threw a rehab start on 4/28 for Double-A Binghamton. He fired 4.2 scoreless innings while the goal was merely four frames, but his pitch count was low (the total for the game was 69 pitches – 52 strikes). Verly gave up two hits and one walk with six strikeouts, including 12 swings and misses. As a result, he looks ready and cleared the final rehab hurdle, likely only needing the one rehab start. He could slot into a needy Mets rotation on 5/4 @DET, where it all began!
• Will we see Adam Wainwright begin his farewell season in Week 6? Well, he is pitching a third rehab start on 4/30 since the results have not been positive so far, and he only reached 4.1 IP in rehab start #2. If he hits 90 pitches on 4/30, he can slide into a cushy start vs. DET on 5/6.
• Just three starts into his return from right hip surgery, Red Sox placed RHP Garrett Whitlock on the 15-Day injured list (retroactive to 4/25) due to right elbow ulnar neuritis. RHP Brayan Bello was recalled, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora is hopeful the injury will keep Whitlock out for only two starts. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Hayden Wesneski⁶⁷, RH CHC (@WSH, MIA; 24% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 68% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Wesneski had a tough go of it early in the year, but in two of his last three starts (we’ll excuse LAD), he has resembled the guy who had a strong end of 2022 and was dominate in Spring Training. Also, it doesn’t get much better than these two matchups. Washington doesn’t strike out very much for such a young team. In fact, they lead the league with a team 18.6% K rate. However, they are last in ISO (0.98!), 26^th in wOBA (.296) and 27th in wRC+ (81). Meanwhile, MIA ranks 23^rd in ISO (0.134), 21^st in wOBA (.304) and 23rd in wRC+ (91). Oh, and the Marlins have the seventh-highest K rate at 25.0%.

Honorable Mention: Mason Miller⁷¹, RH OAK (CLE, @TBR; 29% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 63% in Fantrax Dynasty), Drew Smyly⁸⁷, LH CHC (@WSH, MIA; 44% rostered in Yahoo, 16% in ESPN, 67% in Fantrax Dynasty)

One-Start Pitcher: Bailey Ober⁸³, RH MIN (@CLE; 25% rostered in Yahoo, 5% in ESPN, 61% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Last season, Ober rocked a 3.21 ERA (2.92 FIP) in only 56 IP, a “down” year. His slider is his featured pitch. It generates several swings & misses (37% Whiff rate in 2022, 42.1% in limited 2023 action – 30.5% Put Away rate in 2022, 27.8% this season). His 91.5 average mph four-seam fastball doesn’t blow people. However, when paired with an 82.9 mph slide piece and 83.8 mph changeup, the fastball has sneaky life and deception. Cleveland only strikes out 19.0% of the time vs. RHP, but the ISO is .120 (26^th), and the wOBA is .298 (24^th) vs. RHP. Furthermore, the Guardians’ wRC+ is 89, eighth-worst vs. righties. 

While I can see Steven Kwan and Andrés Giménez doing well, the rest of this lineup is mincemeat! Look it up, kids!

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!