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Finish Strong
The end of every fantasy baseball season always makes me feel sentimental. If you are still with us and reading this, congratulations on making it to the end. That is an accomplishment unto itself. However, the work is not done.
Before we get into the goods, for the past few seasons, I’ve shared a story for motivation. I’m copying and pasting it again for the new subscribers this year and as a reminder to those who have been with us for a while. Feel free to skim to the good parts if you’ve #beentheredonethat ??
So, the story… coaches from the youth level on up can, and often do, shape a person into who they become in life. Instilling fundamental moral principles and motivations while instructing the game they love. If you ever played a sport, you know exactly what I mean. Two stand out for me: my high school strength & conditioning coach, John Mckenna, and my college baseball coach, Fred Hill. Unfortunately, both of these great men are no longer with us, but their legacy lives on in all of their athletes. What did the two have in common? Coincidentally enough, both had the same mantra, which was often repeated at practices, scrimmages, games, seasons, etc. “Start Strong, Finish Strong!”
These words have carried me through A LOT in life. Every time I feel weak, weary or overwhelmed, I repeat these words in my head. Matter of fact, I’m reciting them as I type the words. I repeat them when I’m up at 3:24 am ET reviewing pitching matchups. The mantra inspires me to be my very best. No matter what, being at my best – reaching my max potentiality – makes me feel like a winner. And what do winners do? They fucking win!
This brings me to the point. It is time to FINISH STRONG. We braved the elements, handled the vast amount of SP injuries, and dealt with the late scratches. We shuffled our rosters when players were suddenly unavailable. Now is not the time to stray from the mission and deviate off course. The title of champion remains the same, and the color of money stays true. Don’t let the NFL get your eye off the prize! You worked hard this season, under challenging circumstances, and now is the time to finish as strong as you started to lock up that championship. Fuck your Fantasy Football lineups… let’s gooooooooo!
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: In the final week of the fantasy season, you will find this article to be more of the “meat and potatoes” version. All of the information will be provided minus my jibber-jabber. If you need me to expand on anything or have any questions, tag me in Discord or hit me up on Twitter (links above). There are two seven-game teams in the American League, none more vital than Seattle’s week (HOU – 3, TEX – 4). Texas has seven games on the docket too, so both the AL West and AL Wild Card races will be… well… wild! In the National League, we also see only two seven-game teams thanks to a Dodgers/Rockies doubleheader on 9/26. Not as wild as the AL, but the four-game series goes down in Coors Field, and the Rockies host the Twinkies to close out the year. #NolanJonesSZN
Five-Game Week: TBR (@BOS – 2, @TOR- 3), CLE (CIN – 2, @DET – 3), WSH (@BAL – 2, @ATL – 3), CIN (@CLE – 2, @STL – 3) | Does anybody else feel there shouldn’t be interleague play in the last week? Or at least only one series since odd teams in each league. That’s something I don’t like about the balanced schedule.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are the. . .
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
**2023 Statistics**
*As of 9/22/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant.
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
*Reminder: All starts, especially second ones, are subject to change this final week. Pay close attention to division and wild-card races!
- Blake Snell1 (@SFG, @CHW) ⬅️ Start carving that NL Cy Young trophy now for Snell! His one bug-a-boo has been the free passes, but in 12 IP (2 GS) vs. SFG this season, he has four walks and 19 strikeouts.
- Kevin Gausman4 (NYY, TBR)
- Luis Castillo6 (HOU, TEX)
- Logan Webb7 (SDP, LAD)
- Zac Gallen10 (@CHW, HOU)
- Justin Verlander19 (@SEA, @ARI)
- Aaron Nola20 (PIT, @NYM)
- George Kirby23 (HOU, TEX)
- Justin Steele26 (@ATL, @MIL)
- Kyle Bradish30 (WSH, BOS)
- Mitch Keller32 (@PHI, MIA)
- Kenta Maeda45 (OAK, @COL)
- Hunter Greene48 (@CLE, @STL)
- Michael King49 (@TOR, @KCR)
- Bryce Elder51 (CHC, WSH)
- Jon Gray52 (@LAA, @SEA)
Other Options: Ryan Pepiot67 (@COL, @SFG), Reese Olson89 (KCR, CLE) POV SPECIAL, Paul Blackburn93 (@MIN, @LAA), Tanner Houck112 (TBR, @BAL)
Danger Zone: Zack Thompson117 (@MIL, CIN), Adrian Houser132 (STL, CHC), Alec MarshNR (@DET, NYY) POV SPECIAL, Chase AndersonNR (LAD, MIN), José UreñaNR (ARI, SDP)
*In case you have to dive deep with Thompson, there is a reason he’s in the danger zone. On top of a challenging start in Milwaukee, he could lose his second start if STL wants to pitch Adam Wainwright in the last game as a final farewell.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPT 25 – OCT 1
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.
Max Fried, Braves – 15-day IL, Blister (Out for Regular Season)
Fried’s hot spot finally blistered in his last start vs. WSH. At first, it was reported Fried would pitch through the blister and not miss his last start of the fantasy season. However, it’s not rocket science to see a move like this, especially with not much to play for in Atlanta. The good news is Fried will likely return for the NLDS, but this does squadouche for our fantasy teams. Darius Vines was recalled from minors in a corresponding move and will likely take Fried’s previous start (9/27 CHC).
Royce Lewis, Twins – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain (Retro 9/21)
After much speculation and managers debating on whether to cut Lewis loose in redraft leagues, we got our answer before the Twins began their weekend set with the Angels. Lewis, who is experiencing pain in his left hammy, will hit the shelf to virtually end his fantasy season (eligible 10/1).
Luke Raley, Rays – 10-day IL, Cervical Strain (Retro 9/21)
Sidelined since 9/16 due to neck stiffness he sustained in an accidental collision during pregame batting practice, Raley returned to action as a pinch-hitter on 9/20 this week but did not take his place in right field the next inning. After the game, Raley revealed that his left arm “just kind of went numb” after his last swing of the at-bat, leaving him with a “dead arm” feeling. He was officially placed on the injured list on 9/22. While teams will always retro-date when they can to allow a player to return before the last day, the severity of this issue assures he will remain sidelined till the playoffs so he can get right.
Medical Updates…
- Manny Machado, Padres: Machado appears headed for offseason elbow surgery – or perhaps even in-season elbow surgery, depending on the Padres’ fate down the stretch – to treat tennis elbow in his right arm, which he has been dealing with for the past two seasons.
- Starling Marte, Mets: Marte (right groin strain) played in a sim game on 9/19. He is scheduled to appear in two more sim games at the team’s Spring Training complex before beginning a brief rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on 9/23.
- Shane Bieber & Triston McKenzie, Guardians: Both Bieber and McK will make it back to the mound for at least one more trip before the season’s end. Too little, too late for the Guardians and our fantasy teams, but a feel-good story for their 2024 prospectus.
- MacKenzie Gore, Nationals: Washington announces that Gore will not make another start this year because of left middle finger blisters.
- Sandy Alcantara, Marlins: Alcantara (right UCL sprain) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on 9/21. He tossed four scoreless innings for the Jumbo Shrimp (best name in the game, lol), giving up only one hit and no walks with four strikeouts (51 pitches – 34 strikes). His only baserunner was via a single to the No. 2 overall prospect, Jackson Chourio. Also, Alcantara maxed out at 98.3 mph on a strikeout of Jesse Winker to end the first. According to reports, he threw all of his pitches – four-seamer (22), changeup (10), sinker (10), slider (six) and curveball (three). The Uncle Charlies are most noteworthy, as he first felt the discomfort in his forearm tossing a curveball with his last pitch before hitting the shelf. Theoretically, he could make a 70-80 pitch start as soon as 9/26 @NYM to help his team into the postseason. I have him ranked 77 based on extreme risk and lack of proper build-up, but I’m tossing him into a points-league H2H lineup. To be honest, it’s a consolation matchup for the number one pick next season, so the move is probably more worth my risk than yours. And if you are maintaining fine ERA and WHIP numbers, a matchup with my Mets is one to avoid. If he tosses a side session or another rehab start before joining the Marlins rotation in Pittsburgh (could also theoretically be available for both), then we are talking about some serious “pin action!”
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Reese Olson89, RH DET (KCR, CLE; 25% rostered in Yahoo, 8% in ESPN, 47% in Fantrax Dynasty)
One-Start Pitcher: Bailey Ober86, RH MIN (OAK; 39% Yahoo, 28% ESPN, 77% Fantrax)
Bulk Guy!: Alec MarshNR, RH KCR (@DET, NYY; 1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 10% Fantrax) – Potential cheap wins for leagues with strict start limits and/or open pitching slots. Although, Marsh comes with warts.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
