MLB Weekly Preview: 9/11 – 9/17

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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Finish Strong

The end of every fantasy baseball season always makes me feel sentimental. If you are still with us and reading this, congratulations on making it to the end. That is an accomplishment unto itself. However, the work is not done.

Before we get into the goods, for the past few seasons, I’ve shared a story for motivation. I’m copying and pasting it again for the new subscribers this year and as a reminder to those who have been with us for a while. Feel free to skim to the good parts if you’ve #beentheredonethat ??

So, the story… coaches from the youth level on up can, and often do, shape a person into who they become in life. Instilling fundamental moral principles and motivations while instructing the game they love. If you ever played a sport, you know exactly what I mean. Two stand out for me: my high school strength & conditioning coach, John Mckenna, and my college baseball coach, Fred Hill. Unfortunately, both of these great men are no longer with us, but their legacy lives on in all of their athletes. What did the two have in common? Coincidentally enough, both had the same mantra, which was often repeated at practices, scrimmages, games, seasons, etc. “Start Strong, Finish Strong!”

These words have carried me through A LOT in life. Every time I feel weak, weary or overwhelmed, I repeat these words in my head. Matter of fact, I’m reciting them as I type the words. I repeat them when I’m up at 3:24 am ET reviewing pitching matchups. The mantra inspires me to be my very best. No matter what, being at my best – reaching my max potentiality – makes me feel like a winner. And what do winners do? They fucking win!

This brings me to the point. It is time to FINISH STRONG. We braved the elements, handled the vast amount of SP injuries, and dealt with the late scratches. We shuffled our rosters when players were suddenly unavailable. Now is not the time to stray from the mission and deviate off course. The title of champion remains the same, and the color of money stays true. Don’t let the NFL get your eye off the prize! You worked hard this season, under challenging circumstances, and now is the time to finish as strong as you started to lock up that championship. Fuck your Fantasy Football lineups… let’s gooooooooo!

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: SDP shift from 3 L / 3 R to 2 L & 4 R and SEA shifts from 4 L / 2 R to 3 L / 3 R with Clayton Kershaw being pushed to 9/15 (read below in Two-Start SPs). Also, NYY shift to 2 L / 5 R, TOR goes to 2 L / 5 R with Andrew Heaney used in relief on 9/10 AND MIL goes to 3 L / 4 R with WSH reshuffling rotation.

NOTES: In the final weeks of the fantasy season, you will find this article to be more of the “meat and potatoes” version. All of the information will be provided minus my jibber-jabber. If you need me to expand on anything or have any questions, tag me in Discord or hit me up on Twitter (links above). This is setting up for a very busy week for our hitters and our last real burst of games for the season. With divisions and wild-card spots on the line, much will be decided for our fantasy and real-life teams. When in doubt about plays, check the standings and choose your players based on teams involved in playoff races. And if a guy has any personal incentives, that works too! We have oodles of seven-game weeks (18!) for our fantasy playoffs. Plus, no club plays five games. 

In the immortal words of Al Bundy…

Quick Hitters

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

• BAL (STL – 3, TBR – 4): Oriole hitters are home all week, but park factors favor the pitcher. They’ll get some real meatballs when the Red Birds fly in, yet stingrays can be dangerous. Since stingrays avoid people, stick with your O’s.
• NYY (@BOS – 4, @PIT – 3): Good hitting conditions in both parks, but more so at Fenway, where the rivalry heightens performance. Don’t look now, but with a humming offense, they are creeping back into the Wild Card discussion.
• BOS (NYY – 4, @TOR – 3): See NYY and lump a heap of Wild Card chasing for Boston.
• TOR (TEX – 4, BOS – 3): Yes, we have lots of seven-game weeks in the AL East. Toronto’s may be the most important, playing the team they are vying with for a Wild Card ticket and the team directly behind them. Expect the best from Toronto hitters!
• TBR (@MIN – 3, @BAL – 4): Not to be left out, Tampa hits the road for seven contests, including a key four-game set for AL East supremacy. Target Field and Camden Yards present positive park shifts.
• MIN (TBR – 3, @CHW – 4): Twins are set up well to stave off the attacking Guardians. Wait, attacking Guardians? That’s kind of oxymoronic. Anywho, Twin hitters get park factors in their favor and some meatballs in Chitown (seven righties in total). 
• TEX (@TOR – 4, @CLE – 3): Oodles of playoff implications will be on the line when the Rangers travel north of the border, and whoever wins that series will be in the driver’s seat for the third WC. Despite the woeful park factors for hitters, I’m playing my Ranger bats.
• HOU (OAK – 3, @KCR – 3): The Astros may “only” be playing six games in comparison to the other AL teams here, but did you see the teams they’re playing? Houston bats will rake, but just don’t expect too many HRs with the HRPF in each park. 
• NYM (ARI – 4, CIN – 3): While Citi Field has favored the pitcher in most categories, the HR park factor is 105. They’ll also see the bottom two of the D-backs’ rotation and a Reds staff in distress.
• ATL (@PHI – 4, @MIA – 3): You don’t need me to tell you to start your Braves. Negative park shifts, but does it matter? Worthwhile to note, however, that they play four games in three days with Philadelphia due to a doubleheader (PPD from 6/21). This will surely cost Murphy ABs (what else is new) as well as potentially Rosario, or worse yet, a resting top bat.
• PHI (ATL – 4, @STL – 3): Just like the AL East, the NL East is full of seven gamers. You have to like the Phils’ hot offense even more with their trip to St. Louis, yet Busch provides a power drain for XBH. While it could be a down week for Schwarber, the dude just finished orbiting baseballs out of Petco, so no park will hold him. Maybe he can work on that .195 BA (.225 xBA).
• PIT (WSH – 4, NYY – 3): Washington starters are sucking wind, esp Gray and Gore. They should host Cole, Schmidt and Rodón, but overall, their batters make for good streams.
• MIL (MIA – 4, WSH – 3): The Brew Crew won’t face Alcantara due to injury and Luzardo and will have opportunities against Miami’s younger arms plus old-man Cueto. Also, see the Washington starters’ comment above.
• CHC (@COL – 3, @ARI – 3): Both the Reds and Cubs are away all week, but I like Chicago bats better. Despite leaving The Friendly Confines, Coors is even friendlier like that guy at the bar wearing Sex Panther cologne. PLAY ALL OF YOUR CUBBIES!
• SFG (CLE – 3, @COL – 4): You can pick up a few Giant bats for free and get four games in Coors. It’s a wise move for those who lose a player due to injury. Wilmer Flores (56% rostered in Yahoo, 35% in ESPN, 80% in Fantrax Dynasty) is hot and qualifies for multiple positions, which is so important and useful this time of year. 
• COL (CHC – 3, SFG – 4): If you don’t start your Rockie hitters this week, you might as well drop them. Wait, don’t do that, just so your opponent can grab a Nolan Jones (48% Yahoo, 12% ESPN, 72% Fantrax) or Ezequiel Tovar (43% Yahoo, 12% ESPN, 82% Fantrax). 
• ARI (@NYM – 4, CHC – 3): Mixed bad of park factors for hitting but also a mixed bag of pitching staffs. D-backs could face up to four lefties!!!

Places to Avoid

• WSH (@PIT – 4, @MIL – 3): While we do want to take advantage of bad teams in good situations, the Nats do not qualify. The team’s batting average has been on the decline for the last two weeks as guys are checking out mentally. Furthermore, their hitters get severe negative park shifts this week.
• MIA (@MIL – 4, ATL – 3): Face some tough opposing pitchers.
• CHW (KCR – 3, MIN – 4): Not interested due to opposing pitchers and park factors. They do get seven righties, but they are tough starts for the playoffs.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 9/10/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Max Scherzer^IL (@TOR, @CLE) ⬅️ Max will miss the rest of the fantasy season due to MRI results revealing a low-grade strain of the teres major muscle. Don’t know about you, but I didn’t even know that was a muscle till this season. His postseason outlook remains cloudy.
2. Framber Valdez¹² (OAK, @KCR)
3. Logan Gilbert¹³ (LAA, LAD)
4. Freddy Peralta¹⁴ (MIA, WSH) ⬅️ We knew Adrian Houser would return from the IL this week, but we didn’t know Colin Rea would also be a primary pitcher to extend Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff & Peralta. But with the big three set to throw on regular rest, we should have known.
5. Tyler Glasnow¹⁵ (@MIN, @BAL)
6. Joe Ryan²⁴ (TBR, @CHW) ⬅️ MIN will recall Bailey Ober¹⁰⁷ to make a spot start on 9/15. Lopez, Gray and Ryan would have all been pitching on normal rest during a busy schedule, so this move gives them extra rest for the stretch run. Unfortunately for us weekly-lock players, we lose Ryan’s second stanza as a result.
7. Clayton Kershaw²⁷ (SDP, @SEA) ⬅️ Monitor Kersh’s left shoulder issue, and if you wanna sit this one out in the playoffs, I don’t blame ya. Season-long players can roll him out to improve ratios. UPDATE: Kersh is pushed back to 9/16 for matchups (and to rest that shoulder… I don’t believe you, Dave Roberts!). Gavin Stone takes the hill on 9/11 and could get the two-step, but LAD may use another pitcher @SEA (Emmet Sheehan).
8. Chris Bassitt²⁸ (TEX, BOS)
9. Charlie Morton²⁹ (@PHI, @MIA)
10. Brandon Woodruff³¹ (MIA, WSH)
11. Sonny Gray³⁴ (TBR, @CHW)
12. Nick Pivetta³⁸ (NYY, @TOR) ⬅️ Due to 9/11 PPD, BOS needs to change plans again (x2). Crawford will NOT retain his second start, which slides to 9/18. Pivetta WILL KEEP two starts. Additionally, Chris Sale will slide to 9/16 to cover Crawford’s original date and gain some rest for his struggles. #SeptemberBaseball!
13. Jesús Luzardo³⁹ (@MIL, ATL)
14. Dean Kremer⁴⁰ (STL, TBR)
15. Taijuan Walker⁴⁶ (ATL, @STL)
16. Eduardo Rodriguez⁴⁷ (CIN, @LAA) ⬅️ ERod projects for 9/13 and one start, but I contend the team will move him up on normal rest to pitch 9/12. Otherwise, some combination of Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo would cover the two starts. UPDATE: I was wrong here. DET goes to six-man rotation to close the season (Faedo bulk-innings guy). Wentz goes 9/12, and Sawyer Gipson-Long gets another look later in the week.
17. Alex Cobb⁵³ (CLE, @COL) ⬅️ Cobb (hip) is DTD as of this writing. After the team pushed ahead his scheduled start on 9/9, Cobb said he expects to be fine for a 9/11 start vs. Cleveland. He’s been dealing with the issue for some time, including his recent flirtation with a no-no. He just needs the cortisone shot to take its course. SFG slides Cobb’s next start to 9/19 @ARI to keep him feeling good with rest and aversion of Coors. Ross Stripling is active and likely to take Cobb’s start @COL.
18. Andrew Heaney⁵⁵ (@TOR, @CLE) ⬅️ Heaney was used in relief of an ineffective Jon Gray on 9/10. Dane Dunning will start on 9/11 and may remain in the rotation for Heaney. There is a slight chance Max Scherzer’s second start bumps to next week, but with TEX chasing a playoff ticket, I highly doubt it. Some combination of Gray, Heaney and Dunning will be used in the first two games at Cleveland. Fun stuff!
19. Zack Littell⁵⁷ (@MIN, @BAL) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL

Other Options: Carlos Rodón⁵⁹ (@BOS, @PIT), Dylan Cease⁶³ (KCR, MIN), Kutter Crawford⁶⁷ (NYY, @TOR), Jordan Wicks⁶⁹ (@COL, @ARI), Brady Singer⁷¹ (@CHW, HOU Jordan Lyles will get the Sunday start instead of Singer since both last pitched in 9/12 DH & the latter needs as much rest as he can get being out of gas), Kyle Wright⁷³ (@PHI, @MIA – Jared Shuster SS elimitates 2nd, Gavin Williams⁷⁵ (@SFG, TEX), Clarke Schmidt⁸³ (@BOS, @PIT) POV SPECIAL, Brandon Williamson⁸⁵ (@DET, @NYM), Reid Detmers⁸⁷ (@SEA, DET)

Danger Zone: Edward Cabrera⁸⁸(@MIL, ATL Bryan Hoeing SS elimates 2nd, same game as Wright lmao), José Quintana¹⁰⁵ (ARI, CIN) POV SPECIAL, James Paxton^IL (NYY, @TOR), Hyun Jin Ryu¹⁰⁹(TEX, BOS), Patrick Corbin¹¹⁹ (@PIT, @MIL), Ken Waldichuk¹⁵⁰(@HOU BLK, SDP BLK), Dakota Hudson^NR (@BAL, PHI), Andre Jackson^NR (WSH, NYY), Touki Toussaint^NR (KCR, MIN), Pedro Avila^NR (@LAD, @OAK), Zach Davies^NR & Ryne Nelson^NR (@NYM, CHC), Kyle Freeland^IL-DFS & Chris Flexen^NR (CHC, SFG), Gavin Stone^NR (SDP, @SEA)

*Could Paxton be skipped again to avoid the Jays? He’s running on fumes. The CIN pitcher could be either Brandon Williamson⁸⁵ or Ben Lively. Both are on the COVID-IL as of this writing. UPDATE: Thanks to @JaysDay in Discord, who pointed out that Paxton went to the IL yesterday. He is done for the season, but we already knew he was done even when on the mound. Nick Pivetta takes his spot. Also, Josiah Gray gets pushed again for rest and will now pitch on 9/14.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPT 11 – 17

UPDATE: Oviedo will now pitch against NYY with PIT pushing Mitch Keller a day (still faces WSH) and potentially utilizing Quinn Priester as spot starter on 9/13. Slight downgrade for Oviedo, but if you were using him in this spot, I wouldn’t stray.

“MUST SEE TV!”

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, September 12 – 6:40 PM ET
Max Fried vs. Zack Wheeler
Fantasy Goodness ?

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

Isaac Paredes, Rays – DTD, Right Hand Contusion

Paredes (right-hand contusion) left his game on 9/9 in the fifth inning after getting plunked on his right hand by a 93.7 mph pitch. He was out of the lineup on 9/10, and his status remains uncertain. We will need to check back before MIN’s first game this week.

Luis Rengifo, Angels – 10-day IL, Biceps Tendon Rupture (Done For Season)

The Halos made it official on 9/9, placing Rengido on the shelf for the season. ICYMI, he left his game on 9/14 after injuring his left arm on a practice swing in the on-deck circle. This team is cursed! Rengifo finishes his campaign with a slash of .264/.339/.444 with 35 XBH, 16 HR, 51 RBI and six stolen bases. Once Zach Neto is healthy, he could slide into a starting role.

Luis Severino, Yankees – 15-day IL, Oblique Strain (Done For Season)

Severino left his start on 9/8 with a left-side injury and was placed on the 15-day IL the following day. Diagnostic testing revealed that he suffered a high-grade left oblique strain and will miss the rest of the season.

Medical Updates…

• Shohei Ohtani, Angels: Ohtani was held out of the lineup for the seventh straight game on 9/10 (aka all week) with right oblique tightness. Just call it a wrap already. I can say this as someone who rosters Ohtani. Don’t hate! Teammate Mike Trout (wrist) has begun holding the bat and taking dry swings. Yay!
• Josh Jung, Rangers: Manager Bruce Bochy said Jung (left thumb fracture) could return as soon as the upcoming 9/15-17 series at Cleveland, which would be a little earlier than the original six-week timeline for his return.
• Jasson Domínguez, Yankees: Domínguez was scratched from the lineup on 9/10 with right elbow inflammation. The team said he is day-to-day.
• Marcus Stroman, Cubs: Stroman (rib cartilage fracture) is scheduled to throw his next bullpen session on 9/11.
• Walker Buehler, Dodgers: Buehler will not return this season, with an eye toward coming back in 2024. 
• MacKenzie Gore, Nationals: Gore hits the 15-day IL with blisters on his left middle finger and is unlikely to return this season (innings).
• Brandon Williamson, Reds: As long as he passes COVID test, he should be good to go this week. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Zack Littell⁵⁷, RH TBR (@MIN, @BAL; 13% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 29% in Fantrax Dynasty) – I’ve written about Littell in this space previously, so I’ll cut right to the chase. Littell has put me in a glass case of emotion. Under-the-radar gems, three straight bad outings, and then Littell cruises through the red-hot Mariners in his last start. He’s pitching too much to contact, which makes him hard to trust, especially in the fantasy playoffs. But if you need to stream an SP, he is the best option, and here’s why. The Twins’ lineup is middle-of-the-pack, and while they can score in bunches, they can be kept off the scoresheet as well. The O’s are a good offense, no doubt, but pitching at Camden Yards is a good oasis from the home-run ball.

I will be starting him on my 15-team NFBC team. Pray for me. But I think he’s a solid option for deeper formats and some shallow leagues, especially if you trail in wins and can sacrifice strikeouts to chase them. 

Honorable Mention: Clarke Schmidt⁸³, RH NYY (@BOS, @PIT; 31% Yahoo, 13% ESPN, 69% Fantrax), José Quintana¹⁰⁵, LH NYM (ARI, CIN; 31% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 66% Fantrax) UPDATE: Major bummer for those streaming Schmidt. Due to 9/11 PPD, NYY reshuffle rotation and move Schmidt to Wed (9/13; the worse of the two starts!). Instead, Randy Vásquez will get the ball for Game 1 of DH to make up game on 9/12, along with Carlos Rodón as normal. Also, Jhony Brito could catch a spot start on 9/16 @PIT due to the rainout. Both Vásquez & Brito are auditioning for Luis Severino’s gig. Vásquez & Brito pitched in tandem on 9/12, with Brito getting the win and pitching better of the two. Could be more of the same for 9/16.

One-Start Pitcher: Seth Lugo⁴⁹, RH SDP (@OAK; 57% Yahoo, 32% ESPN, 81% Fantrax) – I can see those roster numbers decreasing after the Stros laid the beatdown on Lugo last time out. Foolishness with the A’s awaiting this week. Lugo rebounds.

For deep leagues, consider the potentially returning John Means¹⁴², LH BAL (STL; 18% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 46% Fantrax). Means (60-day IL, TJS recovery/Back) has been nursed back to full health with a whooping six rehab starts on top of his throwing program, which had a small hiccup with his back. In his fifth rehab start on 8/31, he tossed five scoreless innings (1 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 86 pitches, 53 strikes). His sixth rehab on 9/6 did not go quite as well (5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 67/45), but it was a final tuneup (good bullpen session on 9/9). Baltimore should activate him by 9/12 as his rehab window is over. He is likely to take Cole Irvin’s former spot and return the O’s to a six-man rotation. Baltimore plays 17 straight games from 9/8-9/27. 

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!