MLB Weekly Preview: 8/7 – 8/13

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: FWIW, OAK shifts to 1 L / 5 R with Trevor Williams returning from bereavement list (see Two Start Pitchers).

NOTES: Week 20 offers a return to normalcy following the aftermath of the MLB Trade Deadline. Fortunately, this week is easy to dissect. Twelve teams play seven or more games this week, with Atlanta seeing a week-high eight games due to the makeup doubleheader on 8/12 with the Mets. I haven’t had to bust out the “dark green 1” in quite some time! Half of the league will play the standard six games with edges to be found thanks to a few friendly hitters’ parks. While, as you see below, three teams get the shaft. Let’s go get one step closer to securing your spot as a fantasy baseball champion!

Five-Game Week: SEA (SDP – 2, BAL – 3) The Vedder Cup, STL (@TBR – 3, @KCR – 2), ARI (LAD – 2, SDP – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

It’s GOOD
The Red Sox have a Fenway Park Homestand (KCR – 4, DET – 3), the next best thing to a Rockies Homestand. Fenway’s overall Statcast Park Factor is 109, just behind Coors Field’s 112. Some may argue it’s even better with a more talented lineup and more on par with Cincy Homestand. Boston is hitting a league-leading .292 at home. Their .829 OPS at home is third-best in baseball, and they’re one of only four teams to strike out less than 20%. In any event, it’s goooood!

Also, what makes things even better is the opposition. Kansas City’s starting pitchers, albeit better of late, possess a 5.11 ERA, good for fourth-worst in all of baseball. Backing them up, Royal relievers own a 5.18 ERA (third-worst). Furthermore, the team has a 5.31 road ERA, second only to Oakland. As for Detroit, their starters rank 25^th in ERA (4.75), and now they are minus Michael Lorenzen. While Eduardo Rodriguez has been good, the Sox will miss him, and Detroit is still nursing Tarik Skubal along with extra rest and early hooks. Additionally, the Tigers’ bullpen is not much better with a 4.15 ERA (20^th). 

Rafael Devers will crush this week, even with the three Southpaw arms on his docket. Devers is roping .295 with a .914 OPS vs. fellow lefties (122 ABs). Also, Jarren Duran (73% rostered in Yahoo, 28% in ESPN, 78% in Fantrax Dynasty) holds his own against lefties in limited ABs (.293 BA, .756 OPS, 41 ABs). At home this season, Duran is hitting .348 with 21 XBH and 14 steals in 42 games. He’s striking out at a respectable 21%, and his .958 OPS is by far a career-high. In his last 11 games, he’s hitting .310 with 5 XBH, nine runs scored and six stolen bases. He makes for a better daily play in H2H, but I still like him for weeklies.

Lastly, over the last 40 games, Justin Turner is hitting .321 with 23 XBH and a robust 45 RBI. The level of contact has been great. His zone contact rate of 87.1% is well above league average, and his 17.7% whiff rate is 88^th percentile. The split of three lefties to four righties means little to Turner, as he is handling them both very well this season.

Eight Is Enough
Just like the somewhat famous sitcom of the late 70s and early 80s, eight is plenty for a hot-hitting team like Atlanta (@PIT – 4, @NYM – 4). The Braves will play eight games in seven days with their April 29 makeup DH versus the Mets. Oh, and the pitching matchups are tasty AF!!! Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has had a collective 5.14 ERA since the beginning of July. They also have an abysmal 12.4% K-BB rate during that span. On the other hand, New York has parted with their two high-priced aging superstars (yet is still paying a bulk of the salary to rebuild their farm). The Braves will still face Kodai Senga. Yet, are you afraid of guys like José Quintana or Tylor Megill? Cause the Braves are not, specifically Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II.

Arcia (60% Yahoo, 30% ESPN, 67% Fantrax) has consistently rewarded those who took a flier on him late in drafts. On the season, he’s hitting .289 with a .748 OPS against right-handers, and he will see six righty starters in the eight contests. His 7.5% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit rate are career highs. Since July 1, he’s been hitting .291 with five home runs, 13 runs scored and 12 RBI. He’s a great play for point leagues this week. As for Harris, he will feast on the righty pitching this week. He’s hit .338 with 24 XBH and 35 runs scored since the end of May when he turned his year around. In a more proximal sample, since June 18, Harris has been hitting .361 with 17 XBH and six stolen bases in 35 games. You weren’t one of the foolish managers who dropped Harris. Are you? ?

Both clubs get below-average SPF this week, yet they are both good streaming sources. Besides Arcia for the Braves, we can look toward Brett Baty (9% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 63% Fantrax) and Omar Narváez (FREE) for good streaming options with the Mets facing six righties in seven games. This week, I can see potential DH ABs for either Narváez or Francisco Alvarez when the prior is behind the plate. 

Quick Hitters…

• TOR (@CLE – 4, CHC – 3): Great pitching matchups despite fairly even three lefties to four righties. 
• DET (MIN – 4, @BOS – 3; 2* L / 5 R): The two lefties Detroit may see are Chris Murphy in a bulk relief role and/or a returning Chris Sale, who may be a glorified opener (see IL Report).
• MIN (@DET – 4, @PHI – 3; 4 L / 3 R): See Tigers pitching stats above.
• LAA (SFG – 3, @HOU – 3): Decent SPF [Angel Stadium: 101, t-9th (120 HR, 115 3B); Minute Maid Park: 99, t-15th (111 3B)] and look to stream C.J. Cron (67% Yahoo, 54% ESPN, 87% Fantrax), Randal Grichuk (36% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 59% Fantrax) and Mike Moustakas (6% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 22% Fantrax) in daily leagues where available. It’s a Rockies Invasion!
• WSH (@PHI – 4, OAK – 3): The Nats’ young hitters still have something to prove and will look to do so during a favorable week. The split of two lefty starters to five righties is of benefit to CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz (43% Yahoo, 58% ESPN, 75% Fantrax) and Dom Smith (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 20% Fantrax).
• PIT (ATL – 4, CIN – 3): Liover Peguero (1% Yahoo, 0% ESPN, 18% Fantrax) is low-cost and has been flat-out raking with a .308/.357/.692 slash (1.049 OPS so you don’t have to do the math), three home runs and a stolen base over the past 14 days (28 PA). The organization’s No. 5 prospect is 97^th percentile in sprint speed and stole over 20 bases in each of his past three seasons in the minors. With three lefties scheduled to face Pittsburgh this week, he should have a bead on more PAs as an RHH! 
• SDP (LAD – 1, @SEA – 2, @ARI – 3): The Friars face six right-hand starters this week in their travels, much to the delight of Mr. Soto.
• LAD (@SDP – 1, @ARI – 2, COL – 4; 3 L / 4 R): After Petco Park, Dodgers have prime SPFs at Chase Field (101 SPF, t-9th) and home (101 SPF, t-9th; 124 HRPF).

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
The Royals (@BOS – 4, STL – 2) are coming out like they have something to play for game after game. Winners of seven in their last nine games, their offense is firing on all cylinders. They will get the boon of Fenway Park (see Red Sox above), plus Kauffman Stadium is tied for seventh with a 102 SPF, albeit low in the HR PF. Furthermore, the pitching matchups are better than you would think. Boston has the ninth-worst starter ERA at 4.69, and the Cardinals are the eighth-worst at 4.71. Plus, St. Louis is now minus Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty. As for the bullpens, Boston’s 4.02 pen ERA is middle-of-the-road, while St. Louis’ 4.46 is the eighth worst in baseball.

Maikel Garcia (32% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 55% Fantrax) continues to be an excellent streaming option. Over the last 14 days, he’s hitting .280 with 4 XBH and three stolen bases. He is an on-base machine (.323 OBP on the season, .322 xwOBA). It also helps to hit leadoff ahead of red-hot Bobby Witt Jr. With a mix of lefty and righty opposing starters and openers, it’s hard to play the platoon game in weekly leagues. However, for daily leagues, I’m playing the matchup game with Michael Massey (3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 28% Fantrax) and MJ Melendez (51% Yahoo, 50% ESPN, 85% Fantrax). 

Places to Avoid

I’m not fading anyone outside of the three five-game teams – Seattle, St. Louis and Arizona. I’m even keeping players like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in my lineup while they push for the best offensive output possible in a lost season. Oh, it matters when you’re 35- and 32 years old, respectively. Arizona is probably my biggest avoid due to facing two of the better pitching rotations in baseball. Also, since July 16, the D-backs are hitting just .238 as a team with only 17 home runs. You may want to keep Corbin Carroll in your lineup, and it’s hard for me to justify otherwise. However, he has been on a cold streak, hitting around .200 for the past 14 days. And, by facing three lefty starters in five games, I find it hard to justify playing him (.264 BA, .661 OPS vs. LHP). 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 8/5/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole¹ (@CHW, @MIA)
2. Spencer Strider² (@PIT, @NYM)
3. Logan Webb⁴ (@LAA, TEX) ⬅️Webb moves up on regular rest to pitch on 8/7, giving him two starts.
4. Framber Valdez¹⁰ (@BAL, LAA) ⬅️HOU will opt for a six-man rotation with nine games in nine days by splitting up José Urquidy & J.P. France, who pitched in tandem in Urquidy’s return from the IL. They will have another busy stretch in two weeks, but not sure if they will keep six-man in between.
5. Pablo López¹⁷ (@DET, @PHI)
6. Dylan Cease²⁴ (NYY, MIL)
7. Kodai Senga²⁵ (CHC, ATL)
8. Zach Eflin²⁷ (STL, CLE)
9. Mitch Keller³³ (ATL, CIN)
10. Freddy Peralta³⁷ (COL, @CHW) ⬅️ One of my favorite starts of the week!
11. Jameson Taillon⁴⁰ (@NYM, @TOR)
12. Brayan Bello⁴¹ (KCR, DET) POV SPECIAL
13. Tanner Bibee⁴² (TOR, @TBR)
14. Sonny Gray⁵¹ (@DET, @PHI)
15. Julio Urías⁵⁵ (@ARI, COL)
16. Seth Lugo⁵⁶ (LAD, @ARI)
17. Kutter Crawford⁵⁸ (KCR, DET)
18. Eduardo Rodriguez⁶⁰ (MIN, @BOS!) ⬅️ ERod picks up a second start with Joey Wentz optioned to minors. #RevengeGame?
19. Ranger Suárez⁶⁹ (WSH, MIN) ⬅️ Suárez is the probable starter for 8/13 as of 2pm ET on 8/12. if Phillies do keep rotation in-line, Zack Wheeler appears set for the extra rest with a date in Toronto on 8/15. Still worth monitoring!
20. Eury Pérez⁷¹ (@CIN, NYY)

Other Options: Grayson Rodriguez⁷² (HOU, @SEA)*, Josiah Gray⁷³ (@PHI, OAK), Tony Gonsolin⁷⁷ (@SDP, COL), Dane Dunning⁸² (@OAK, @SFG) POV SPECIAL, Hyun Jin Ryu¹¹⁷ (@CLE, CHC) POV SPECIAL

*Grayson Rodriguez is 33 innings over his 2022 total. UPDATE: BAL will go to a six-man rotation with Rodrigiuez (and others) up against it with innings. Cole Irvin will start on 8/12 and could remain in rotation.

Danger Zone: Trevor Williams¹²² (@PHI, OAK)*, Brandon Williamson¹²⁴ & Luke Weaver^NR (MIA, @PIT), Drew Smyly^PEN (@NYM, @TOR), Brandon Pfaadt¹²⁷ (LAD, SDP), Gavin Williams¹²⁸ (TOR, @TBR), Cole Ragans¹⁴⁷ (@BOS, STL), Yonny Chirinos^NR (@PIT, @NYM), Ken Waldichuk^NR (TEX, @WSH), Kyle Freeland^NR & Peter Lambert^NR (@MIL, @LAD)

*Brandon Pfaadt has been pitching well and is coming off his best start at the major-league level vs. SFG. The Dodgers are somewhat fearsome, but as San Diego drifts further out of wild-card contention, the Padres are not. You can take your shot with Pfaadt if you’re trying to make up ground. In three starts since being back with the big club, he has a 3.42 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 16:2 K:BB over 18.2 frames. Finally, his second start is conditional to the club using a four-man rotation with only five games this week. Technically, they won’t need a fifth starter till 8/15. This could give time for ailing pitchers to heal up.

UPDATE: Trevor Williams returns from the bereavement list to pitch on 8/7, which pushes everyone a day. As a result, Williams gets two starts, and MacKenzie Gore gets just the one (@PHI). With the 8/7 PPD, Williams will get a second start and Josiah Gray will shift to 8/15 for two extra days rest. Smyly goes back to the pen for long relief/bulk innings. Javier Assad will make a spot start on 8/11, and Justin Steele gets an extra day of rest to 8/12. CHC play five games next week with Marcus Stroman^IL potentially returning to the rotation on 8/16 when first eligible (if not Assad would get a second turn). Hayden Wesneski is floating around as well but for now will remain in the pen.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUG 7 – 13

“MUST SEE TV!”

New York Yankees @ Miami Marlins
Sunday, August 13 – 1:40 PM ET
Gerrit Cole vs. Eury Pérez
Phenomenal matchup to round out our week! As seen in the tweet above, Pérez will likely start on Monday, 8/7 (@CIN, NYY). If he is floating out on your league’s waiver wire cause his fantasy manager couldn’t hold him, pounce despite the toughish matchups (52% rostered in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 80% in Fantrax Dynasty). Also, we have another electric matchup with Justin Steele vs. José Berríos⚡

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Josh Jung, Rangers – 10/60-day IL Likely, Fractured Left Thumb

Jung left his game on 8/6 in the sixth inning shortly after he knocked down a 109.4 mph line drive with his glove hand and then started a double play. Per Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, X-rays on Jung’s hand revealed a left thumb fracture. Jung doesn’t have an official timeline for his return, but he’s likely looking at a multi-week absence, at least. Ezequiel Duran would be my preference if looking for a replacement in-house. Bummer!

Tyler Glasnow, Rays – DTD/Scratch, Back Spasms

About two hours before first pitch on 8/6, the Rays announced that Glasnow would not make his scheduled start in Detroit due to back spasms. The club is gathering information but is hopeful that Glasnow will only miss one turn through the rotation. Have you ever seen a team more snake-bit when it comes to pitching injuries? Good Lord! After all, the team just placed Shane McClanahan on the 15-day IL due to left forearm tightness. McClanahan is headed to Los Angeles for an appointment on 8/7 with Dr. Neal ElAttrache to determine the extent of his injury. ?

Joe Musgrove, Padres – 15-day IL, Right Shoulder Capsule Inflammation (Retro 8/1)

Musgrove has inflammation in his right shoulder capsule. He’ll be shut down for at least three weeks. “We’re not ruling him out for this year,” Padres general manager A.J. Preller said. With San Diego still in the Wild-Card hunt as of this writing (2.5 GB), there will be motivation to get Joe Slick back on the mound. But with days fleeting and teams amassing in front of them, the percentage we get Musgrove back this season goes down precipitously. 

Medical Updates…

• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Kershaw (shoulder) is on track to return from the 15-day IL on 8/10 vs. COL. Maybe. We think so. For sure this time. I think.
• Carlos Rodón, Yankees: Rodón left his game on 8/6 vs. the Astros in the third inning with left hamstring tightness. He will undergo an MRI on 8/7. For now, his removal is being labeled as precautionary. Before his early exit, Rodón had allowed three hits and five earned runs in 2.2 IP, including two home runs. He struck out five and walked two. ? UPDATE: Despite wanting to pitch through the injury, tests reveal muscular tear in hamstring, so Rodón hits the IL. Clarke Schmidt could gain a sneaky second start @MIA if Yanks roll a four-man rotation. Otherwise, Randy Vásquez or Jhony Brito (if injury backdating) would need to be recalled.
• Chris Sale, Red Sox: Sale (left shoulder blade stress reaction) was dominant for Triple-A Worcester on 8/6 in what might have been his final rehab start. The lefty fired 4.1 scoreless innings, giving up three hits while walking none and striking out seven. He could be activated for a start on 8/12 vs. DET. 
• Max Muncy, Dodgers: Muncy (wrist) remains out of the lineup on 8/6 after getting hit by a pitch on 8/3 despite X-rays coming back negative. The wrist remains sore, hampering his swing.  

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Hyun Jin Ryu¹¹⁷, LH TOR (@CLE, CHC; 19% rostered in Yahoo, 6% in ESPN, 41% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Ryu had a very rude awakening, making his 2023 debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He had not started since June 1, 2022, after coming down with the injury. The rust was apparent against Baltimore, who tuned him up for nine hits and four runs in five innings. The importance here was Ryu completed the outing healthily. He did not fool many batters, striking out three, but he only offered one free pass. Also, Baltimore is one of the better-hitting teams in the league vs. LHP (109 wRC+). 

On the contrary, Cleveland is a bottom-5 team vs. LHP in all major hitting categories. And while the Cubbies are top-10 in ISO vs. LHP, they are only middle-of-the-pack in terms of BA, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. I firmly believe Ryu is in store for a rebound this week! UPDATE: Ryu was straight dealing vs. CLE with four hitless innings and two punchies before catching a comebacker off his right knee. He left the game early, and imaging reveals just a bruise for now. Good to go for his next start!

Honorable Mention: Brayan Bello⁴², RH BOS (KCR, DET; 64% Yahoo, 28% ESPN, 92% Fantrax), Dane Dunning⁸², RH TEX (@OAK, @SFG; 68% Yahoo, 30% ESPN, 77% Fantrax) – I would add/start either if available in your league.

One-Start Pitcher: Steven Matz⁷⁵, LH STL (@KCR; 45% Yahoo, 16% ESPN, 68% Fantrax) – Matz has delivered three quality starts in as many games for the first time all year and finished July with a 2.17 ERA. After finding some success in relief (1.64 ERA over six relief appearances in June), Matz has worked his way back into the Cardinals’ good graces. The veteran lefty has found his control of late, surrendering just eight free passes over his last seven games. Matz has also kept the ball in the yard, having allowed just two home runs (both in the same game) since 5/24. He deserves a spot in most leagues while he’s pitching well.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!