Last week was actually good for me and some others at Elite. I made money on the week long slate and cashed the Sunday showdown as well. It looks like we may be coming to form over here, which is dangerous. I do not like this week at all and I won’t sugar coat it. This tournament does not give us many great golfers and we have Jon Rahm as the biggest favorite at +300. I won’t take too much time with this article but will try and give you everything you need to know.
This week we move to Puerto Vallarta Mexico for the Mexico open at Vidanta. This course is a 7,400-yard par 71 with 5 par 3’s, 9 par 4’s and 4 par 5’s. They have tried making this course tougher by turning it into a par 71 from a par 73 and adding 200 more yards. I will say if we do not have any wind this week this course is going to see a winner at -20 or better because other than that this course is very easy with wide open fairways and barely any rough to hit out of. This week will be great for bombers and great irons players due to the slower fairways. Hitting it far is a plus for everybody. Just note you might see some crazy names in this article just due to field strength so don’t think I’m really this crazy.
Stats I am Looking at
Birdie or better gained
Jon Rahm (Cash/GPP)
Obviously, the best play on the board and that will be shown in his ownership. Even if his ownership is over 50% its hard to fade him. Last time he was +300 to win a tournament he missed the cut so the logic of fading him in tournaments is viable but be very careful if you do.
Tony Finau (GPP)
Risky play per usual and you guys will probably ask why he is over $10k but that is just due to this field being very bad. Finau should be lower owned then Rahm here.
Patrick Reed (GPP)
His stats won’t really show up for you when you look but Reed likes longer courses even if he doesn’t necessarily have the distance.
Gary Woodland (Cash/GPP)
I actually love this play quite a bit this week. Sets up well for everything I am looking at and can win here.
Sebastian Munoz (GPP)
Never thought I would see him up here in this range, but he sets up well and could do really well this week and place top 10.
Aaron Wise (Cash/GPP)
I know I just said this about Munoz but I can’t believe how expensive he is for this week. He has the distance, and his upside is tremendous at this tournament.
Matt Jones (GPP)
Good spot for him this week. Sets up well and always plays Corales and the Puerto Rican Open, which are comp courses. If the wind is up this week that just makes him a better play.
Carlos Ortiz (GPP)
His form is so dang bad, but he is Mexican and while I know its not the same but at the WGC Mexico, he finished 15th and 16th in back-to-back years so he can show up for his home country.
Lanto Griffin (Cash/GPP)
Good price tag on him this week even in a worse field. The only problem with him is his recent form which is actually bad.
Charles Howell III (Cash/GPP)
He is super up and down but has the upside to compete here and can pay off his price tag big time.
Austin Smotherman (Cash/GPP)
His irons are always great but just needs to find that putter and he should be fine.
Chad Ramey (GPP)
Has finished 1st at corales and 5th at the Puerto Rico Open which are comp courses.
Patrick Rodgers (Cash/GPP)
Back on the well this week and hopefully he doesn’t burn me this time. I can see him doing well in this spot and plays Puerto rico and Corales well.
Wyndham Clark (GPP)
He has the distance and has played the comp courses well.
Alex Smalley (Cash/GPP)
Hopefully a sneaky play this week because he sets up very well for me. Also smashes at Corales along with having the distance and good irons.
Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
Very very bad recent form but honestly I can really see him competing for a top 20 spot this weekend.
Joseph Bramlett (Cash/GPP)
I will take a guess and say he will be pretty chalky this week. Has decent upside this week and should be fairly safe in this field.
Wesley Bryan (Cash/GPP)
Wish he had a bit more distance but he sets up well for this week.
Robert Garrigus (GPP)
Don’t love him but he is a coastal guy and has a chance to make the cut.
Grayson Murray (GPP)
One of the most tilting golfers on tour but I have a soft spot for him.
Twitter is @MFGTrod