Very mediocre week last week even though we hit a bunch of placement bets. Congrats to Xander who I thought was never going to win at this point, but he got it done even though he didn’t do all that much on Sunday besides watch everybody behind him crumble. Now we move to the John Deere Classic which is not the greatest of tournaments due to how the schedule falls and most guys already traveled over seas to play this week and get acclimated to the time change and everything before The Open. We are still going to break this week down and try to find the best possible edge to make some money. Let’s get it!!
Course Preview
This week we make our way to TPC Deere Run in Illinois for the John Deere classic. This is field is so bad due to most golfers who are playing The Open are playing in the Scottish Open to get ready for next week. The highest priced guy this week is Webb Simpson and that should tell you everything you need to know for this field. This course plays as a 7,268-yard par 71 with three par 5’s, four par 3’s and eleven par 4’s. The par 5’s are the easiest holes on the course with the 2nd hole being the easiest one yielding over a 50% birdie rate and a 4% eagle rate. This is course is easy, but you still need to strike the ball well and have a good APP game. Scores have pushed past -20 in 9 of the last 12 times played at this course and should be a lot of scoring this week. We do not want to go safe this week because you want as much upside as you can possibly get. I recommend to not play cash games this week because the field is bad and even the favorites could do very bad, so if you want to play cash you can, but I recommend against it.
Stats I am Looking at
- SG: APP
- BoB gained
- Good drives
- Par 4 scoring
- Par 5 550-600
- SG:P (slightly)
Player Breakdown by tier (in order of preference)
Top Tier
Adam Hadwin – You could honestly have Webb here also, but it all came down to Hadwin playing here in 2016 and coming top 10 and also playing better lately.
Jason Day – I know I might be a little crazy for this one but his talent in this field is a lot better than probably the entire field. Plays well at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage. Give me some Jason.
Maverick McNealy – He can be so tilting some weeks, but he is a guy who can score in bunches and that is what we want. Also has two top 25s with an 8th at the Rocket Mortgage.
Mid-Tier
Lento Griffin – He doesn’t always have his driver on point, but he can score in bunches and can contend here. 3rd in my model for the week.
Charles Howell III – Other weeks he would not be priced up to $9,300 but here we are in this field and honestly, I think it is a good price this week. He comes in 4th in my model and his irons are good majority of the time and we need guys giving themselves scoring opportunities.
Martin Laird – I really like his price this week and think he can pay it off quite easily. 5th in my model and is a very accurate golfer.
Adam Svensson – Playing well lately and is 6th in my model in APP and also 16th in BoB gained. If he can find a putter on his way to the tournament then he will do well.
Scott Stallings – His driver needs some work, but I can’t be too picky this week because every guy I write up will have a flaw. Has played well at this tournament and has a couple top 10s at the travelers. Also comes in 3rd in the model for BoB gained.
Adam Long – A top 20 is well within the cards for this weekend. He won’t win but he should pay off this price in this field.
David Lipsky – He comes in 6th in my model this week and it kind of shocked me but he does play good on easier courses and can score. Also very good with his driver and irons.
Brendon Todd – He doesn’t have the highest BoB gained number, but he is so accurate and good with his putter. He can mitigate the damage and score giving himself a top 15 opportunity this week.
Cameron Davis – If you want some big upside, Davis is your guy. Oh, and he won at the Rocket Mortgage which is a comp course.
Lucas Glover – Trust me I do not want to play him as much as you don’t, but he is good at this course and won it last year. It is hard to ignore good course history in a field like this and his APP numbers are 3rd in my model.
Mark Hubbard – MR. Chuba Hubbard himself making his way into the article this week. He is number one in my model for P5 from 550-600 so we know he will be scoring on those and will put himself in contention.
Doug Ghim – He is from this area and place 18th in 2021. I do not like how bad his BoB gained number is but hopefully he can get it going this week.
J.T. Poston – Has played well at the comp course but not so much at this course itself. He is not safe by any means, but he can finish top 10 if he is on.
John Huh – Comes in 12th in my model and 9th for BoB gained. Putter is so bad but hopefully he finds it this week.
Value Tier
Ryan Moore – This is my dude this week. Top 10 here we come baby.
Nate Lashley – This man has some big upside this week. Only has a 26th at this course in the one time he played it but comes in 10th in my model and is 11th in BoB gained. He will be scoring a lot this week.
Chad Ramey – He seems to play better at easier courses and is a good talent.
Vaughn Taylor – We usually only use him for round one of showdowns but I do think he can do well here. Last five years has missed the cut once and has a 6th in 2019.
Hank Lebioda – Going to be a risky play this week but has finished well here and the comp courses in the past. Also good on the par 5’s for the distances this week.
Doc Redman – Coming in with some terrible form but if we want a guy who can score in bunches and finish with a bunch of points this is our guy.
Wesley Bryan – He tilts me every time I recommend him but has two top 10 finished here in the past and has played the comp courses well.
