WE ARE BACK!! Welcome back everybody!! Hopefully new users have joined us for the new season. Golf has a pretty short layoff, but it is one I really needed as I was just getting in my own head. I have had time to clear it out and come back better and more prepared than before. Early in the season we will see mediocre fields and not many with top tier golfers. This week for example we have Hideki Matsuyama as the highest priced golfer in the field. I will still put together a list of golfers I like for each week and this season we will bring a lot of money to Elite members pockets. Now let’s get to it baby!!
Course Preview
First week back and we are making our way to Napa to play at the Silverado Resort and Spa which is the 16th straight time we see a golf tournament played here so plenty of data to go off of. Max Homa won here last year with a score of -19 topping Maverick McNealy by one stroke. We will be getting a field of 156 with a normal cut of top 65 and ties. Silverado plays as a 7,123-yard par 72 with four reachable par 5’s, ten par 4’s and four par 3’s. Hitting fairways is not necessarily at a premium this week but hitting from the fairways will give you a good chance to score here. Bombers and plodders all have had their fair share of doing well at this course, so I don’t think any specific golfer has a huge advantage. Greens are POA and Bent grass blend and we should see a winning score in the range of -18 to -20.
Stats I am Looking At
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG
- Par 5 scoring
- Prox 75-150
- P4: 400-450
- BoB gained
- Driving Distance (Lighter but should help)
Player Breakdown
Max Homa (GPP)
I know its weird having Homa up here in this price range and listing him as GPP only, but he is the type of player who is boom or bust and even in a smaller field could miss if not finishing top 5. He has all the talent in the world but seems to disappear sometimes.
Corey Conners (Cash/GPP)
I always love courses where the putter being bad doesn’t completely kill you. One of the better players in the field on approach and should make the cut and score well for us this week.
Maverick McNealy (GPP)
McNealy is another golfer who is super boom or bust in this top range. He did finish 2nd here last year but before that he doesn’t have a finish in the top 40. Good at scoring but just know he could also go out and either miss the cut or make the cut and finish towards the bottom. Other than that, he has top 10 upside.
Taylor Pendrith (Cash/GPP)
Love me some Pendrith this week. Comes in 2nd in my overall model this week along with having some good distance too him and his form is actually really good. I can really see a top 10 from him this week and be in the optimal lineup.
Cameron Davis (Cash/GPP)
I might realistically start my teams in the $9k range this week with the guys we have here. Davis can score a bunch of points this week even without winning. Comes in first in my model and even though he does not have a top 10 here I do not care as I think he will still score more than most around him.
Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
If the putter really does not matter this week, then you will see Grillo towards the top of the leaderboard. He is a good golfer but that putter really does kill him week in and week out.
Thomas Detry (Cash/GPP)
Euro tour golfer who is actually a good talent. In this type of field, he should actually fair well and be able to make the cut. His form is actually good also, so I am willing to bet on talent.
Taylor Montgomery (Cash/GPP)
We are going to have to get used to guys like this making their way onto the PGA tour now that it is swing season. After some digging this kid is really good and could be the next Morikawa/Hovland type. His driver is long but not very accurate which is kind of a concern. Other than that, his irons are good, and his putter is also good, so his skill set is great for most tournaments. Likes to make a bunch of birdies and that is why he is priced up in this field this week.
Webb Simpson (GPP)
I know his form is God awful but with his talent and how he plays if he can get it back to his old self then he should be prices close to $10k. thing is he is priced at $8,400 which leaves you more room for error if he makes a mistake and finishes 15th instead of top 5.
Cameron Champ (GPP)
Has won here before and also has won at the 3M open which is a comp course. I like how long he can hit it and put himself further up to hit his shorter irons.
Carl Yuan (GPP)
Another young talent coming from the KFT this week but I am less on him than I am with Montgomery. While Yuan is super long with his driver and has a good birdie rate. His driving accuracy is going to be an issue for him on most weeks. I do not think this course specifically but he is kind of an up and down golfer who has great upside.
Andrew Putnam (Cash)
Do not love him for GPP this week but I do think he makes the cut and come in around 30th place just like the last three times played here.
Chez Reavie (Cash/GPP)
Probably my top mid-range guy this week. Coming into my model 8th and also plays at this course really well along with pebble and 3m open. Sets up very nicely this week.
Nick Hardy (GPP)
I won’t go out and say Nick is going to win this tournament or anything, but he very realistically can finish top 20 with more in the tank. He can score and if he can get those irons hot. He has some massive upside.
Kevin Streelman (Cash/GPP)
I think it’s crazy how he comes in 100th in my model for BoB gained but he does really well at this course and the comp courses I am looking at. He should do just enough this week to pay off this salary with upside in the top 5 like we have seen from him here in the past.
Adam Long (GPP)
Only reason he is GPP this week is because for him to do well here is he just plods along and doesn’t make any dumb mistakes. He will not go out and drop birdie for birdie like the rest of the guys in this article, but his form is actually pretty good and his T2G game has mostly been the reason why.
Michael Gligic (GPP)
When his irons are not complete crap he plays well and that is even in tougher fields then this one. He should be just fine this week making the cut and hopefully getting us a top 30 or more.
Alex Smalley (Cash/GPP)
Another KFT guy who came on tour late in 2021 but by now we know a little more about him. He is a decent talent who in fields like this should fair well. I do not love his game but has decent approach and should be able to hit fairways giving himself opportunities.
Patrick Rodgers (GPP)
I am going to say this right away, so nobody gets confused. If Patrick Rodgers is missing fairways and you played him just chalk it up because that lineup is dead. When he is able to hit fairways, he actually looks decent and has also played well here in the past. Great on par 5 scoring so hope he can make his living there this week and doesn’t make too many mistakes elsewhere. This is a GPP winning play if he shows up.
Mark Hubbard (Cash/GPP)
Hubbard is not a bomber by any means, but he can hit it in the fairways and his irons are good. 7th in my overall model and 3rd in APP out of the entire field. Wish he has a bit more distance to him, but he has shown he can play well here with two top 20s.
Adam Svensson (Cash/GPP)
Man, I hope the new season is going to be his best season. He has some talent but every week he just falls apart one day and messes himself up. I really do believe he can win a tournament this season and maybe this one is it.
Matt Wallace (GPP)
This play all depends what type of season he has. If we get Wallace from 2021 then this price is way too cheap in this field. If we get last season, they he will suck again. I will lean slightly towards going back to 2021 season because Wallace was dealing with some stuff, and I believe an injury was involved so let’s hope he is 100% because his talent in this field is top 15.
Austin Eckroat (Cash/GPP)
I really would like to see what this kid has in him on the PGA tour. Good driving distance, good driving accuracy, great GIR% and also a great birdie % last season. We could probably just use him for showdowns, but he has the top 25 upside this week.
Nick Taylor (GPP)
His form is God awful, but he loves this course and also plays well at Pebble. Also don’t forget to play him for Round 1 Showdown.
Ryan Moore (GPP)
If you guys thought he wasn’t going to be in the article you were mistaken big time. Has a couple good finishes at this course and I do think he has talent. Just had a bad year last year and still started to find something towards the end.
