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Expect the Unexpected

Expect the Unexpected

TylerBuecher

Every fantasy season throws a few curveballs, such as players no one saw coming who end up becoming league-winners. Whether it’s a late-round flyer, a waiver-wire hero, or a breakout star nobody saw coming, surprise performances can define a season just as much as your first-round pick.

In this article, I’ll be diving into the biggest surprises from 2024 and spotlighting the names you’ll want to keep an eye on in 2025. It’s not always your first-round pick that makes the difference, at times it’s the player most were not expecting to make the difference.

Surprise Players: Looking Back and Ahead

QB Sam Darnold, Seahawks – Darnold had a breakout 2024 season with the Vikings, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns while completing 66% of his passes. He finished as QB7 in fantasy scoring and set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and QBR. He also topped his previous best fantasy season by over 100 points and, for the first time in his career, averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game. Drafted as QB31 in most one-QB leagues, Darnold massively outperformed expectations and became a true difference-maker for anyone who took a shot on him.

This year’s Darnold: There are a few candidates to be this year’s Darnold, but I keep coming back to Justin Fields, now with the Jets on a two-year deal. He gets a fresh start alongside young stars Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, a former college teammate. Fields has demonstrated nice fantasy upside, finishing QB7 and QB14 in points per game in the only two seasons that he played at least 13 games. He’s currently being drafted as QB20, making him a potential steal if he starts all 17 games in 2025.

RB Chase Brown, Bengals – Brown was a familiar name in the fantasy community heading into 2024, and those who took a mid-round shot on him were rewarded. Despite being drafted as the RB36 in PPR leagues, behind teammate Zack Moss, Brown finished as the RB10 in PPR scoring. Moss opened the season as the Bengals’ primary back, but Brown took over by October and never looked back. He racked up 990 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, adding 54 receptions for 360 yards and four more scores through the air. Brown set career highs across the board, including rush attempts, yards, touchdowns, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He totaled 294 opportunities, averaged 0.9 PPR points per opportunity, and accounted for 64 percent of the team’s rush attempts and 11 percent of the target share.This year’s Brown: Najee Harris is the player who comes to mind as this year’s version of Brown. Now with the Chargers, Harris is expected to operate as the team’s featured back in 2025, a role that should lead to plenty of volume. He’s proven he can handle a heavy workload and stay on the field, finishing as RB3 and RB13 in PPR formats in seasons where

This year’s Brown: Najee Harris is the player who comes to mind as this year’s version of Brown. Now with the Chargers, Harris is expected to operate as the team’s featured back in 2025, a role that should lead to plenty of volume. He’s proven he can handle a heavy workload and stay on the field, finishing as RB3 and RB13 in PPR formats in seasons where he logged 270+ carries. Harris is also a capable pass-catcher, with two seasons of 40+ receptions under his belt. The Chargers ranked 13th in rush attempts per game last season (26.7), and Harris has the skillset to operate as a three-down back. Currently being drafted outside of the top 20 at the position, he offers strong value if he sees a heavy workload. As of now, he sits inside my top 12 running backs for 2025.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks – After flashing potential as a rookie in 2023, Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in 2024. He hauled in 100 passes for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns, with his 100 receptions tying for seventh among wide receivers and ninth among all players. He posted career highs across the board, including targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per target, and air yards. Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, commanding a 24% target share and averaging 8.1 targets per game. He also ran a team-high 625 routes, with 83.6% of them coming from the slot. Finishing as WR10 in PPR formats, he far outperformed his average draft position as WR40.

This year’s Smith-Njigba: I don’t believe Stefon Diggs has another top-10 season in him, but he’s being undervalued at his current ADP of WR58. Even if his draft stock rises into the WR40 range before the season starts, he still has the potential to outperform expectations. Diggs signed a three-year, $69 million deal with the Patriots this offseason and is expected to be their go-to target. Given New England’s thin receiving corps, he should see a healthy volume of targets in 2025. He’ll likely become a reliable safety valve for second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who showed promise as a rookie. Before suffering a season-ending injury in 2024, Diggs was quietly productive, finishing as WR17 in PPR points per game. While I’m not projecting a WR1 finish, a top-30 season is well within reach, making him a solid WR2/WR3 depending on league format, and a major value compared to his current ADP.

Final Thoughts

The 2024 season proved that fantasy success isn’t just about big names, it’s about timing and opportunity. As we look to 2025, staying flexible and open to unexpected breakouts could be the key to gaining an edge. The next difference-maker might be sitting at the bottom of draft boards right now.