Last week was another bad week DFS wise and had a bunch of guys who were great on Thursday/Friday but then just completely fell apart on the weekend making most of the plays and bets miss. We hit a top 20 and a couple top 30 bets to bring some money back but for the most part it was a down week for me and some in chat beside for showdown. Let’s get to this week now.
Course Preview
This week we move to TPC Craig Ranch in Texas for the tune up week to the PGA Championship. Usually, this course does not have the greatest of fields because of scheduling but this year we have a lot of good golfers on tap for this week. We even have the world #1 in Scottie Scheffler playing again in his home state and could add another win to his belt if he wants to go for it this week. This course is way too easy, and we probably see a mid-20 winner with someone potentially pushing -30 if the weather is perfect. This course is a 7,468-yard par 72 with the standard 4 par 5’s, 10 par 4’s and 4 par 3’s. three of the four par 5’s yields a 48%+ birdie rate while the other one yields a 38% so you will really want to make sure you can score on these holes because if you don’t you will put yourself behind. We have bentgrass greens this week along with Zoysia fairways. The fairways are wide and easy to hit along with the greens which yields over 70% greens hit rate which is above average. We are probably going to see another week where whoever can make the most putts will win with a huge score so it will be a very random week and one, I don’t think I’d recommend playing cash games.
Stats I am Looking at
BoB gained
SG: APP
Driving Distance
Prox 200+
Par 5 scoring
Putting
Player Breakdown
Justin Thomas
Number 1 in the field in the last 24 in BoB gained and 11th in the field in Par 5 scoring. Probably my favorite play on the board this week.
Scottie Scheffler
Playing in his home state and we all know he can score with the best of them. I will have him slightly below JT, but I do like him as well coming in 7th in Bob and 8th in par 5 scoring.
Dustin Johnson
He really will come down to an ownership play for me because if he comes in at half of what Scottie and JT come in at, I want a lot of DJ just because he has that massive upside like we saw when he scored better then -30 at a tournament.
Xander Schauffele
Per usual I would love him as a safer pick up in this range. Guy is more than likely going to make the cut and can score well here.
Sam Burns
Sucks we aren’t on his favorite greens in Bermuda, but he comes in second in Bob gained in the last 24 rounds so he should have plenty of scoring this week.
Brooks Koepka
If he is sub 15% I’ll be on this play but I’m not sure that he will be. Koepka can win at any tournament, but this seems like a tune up for him to compete next week at the PGA championship.
Joaquin Niemann
I always get him wrong and he usually finishes like 50th or misses the cut when I talk him up but top 15 in BoB gained and 12th overall in my model, could have a good week.
Talor Gooch
Love him always and that will not change this week. His putter is mediocre but ranks 8th in BoB gained 1st in par 5 scoring and also 3rd in approach. Great play in all formats this week at that price.
Jhonattan Vegas
Another guy in this range I like quite a bit. He can score and plays the easier course better than anything else. Finished 9th here last year and also finished 10th at the Waste Management.
Aaron Wise
Trust me I know this is a super risky play a majority of the time, but the dude can score. He ranks 3rd in BoB gained and 10th in par scoring over the last 24 so I am willing to take my chances on him.
Seamus Power
If he isn’t chalky then I am not sure what I am doing with research because his stats line up for this week. He ranks 10th in BoB gained and 1st in par 5 scoring along with his best putting surface being bent grass and ranks 11th in the field. Also finished 9th here last year and his win in July of last year was on bent grass greens.
Maverick McNealy
Kind of all over the place but can make a splash this week. His proximity from 200+ is 8th in the field and if he gives himself those opportunities this week that can be huge.
Lanto Griffin
Comes in 18th in my overall model this week with being 13th in BoB gained so he can score. He likes easy courses and his best putting surface is bent.
Mito Pereira
His irons are very good its just his scoring that scares me. If I played him, it would be in a contest you wanted someone safer who could finish top 20.
Sepp Straka
He screwed us all last week, but I do see him doing well here. 24th in Bob gained and 12th in par scoring. He is also a decent putter and can get hot with it.
Bubba Watson
Not sure how to feel about this play but we all know he has massive upside when his game comes together. Not great recent form but he has the ability to get there.
Keith Mitchell
If his APP game is on, he can top 10 here for sure. If it’s off, you might see a missed cut or finish almost dead last on the weekend. I would use him in deep GPPs only with big upside.
Luke List
Deep GPP play only for me, biggest thing for him is that God-awful putter but if he were to somehow break even this week, he could finish top 15 and I wouldn’t blink an eye.
Matthew Wolff
The biggest question is do we think Wolff is fixed. If he is I will have 100% exposure to him and will be a core play for me. I personally am not sure if he is fully back but even if he is 75%, I think he can top 10 at this course.
Patton Kizzire
Cannot go without writing up my man. He likes easy courses and finished top 10 at this course last year. I always play him in Texas.
Carlos Ortiz
Terrible recent form but finished 21st here last year and also 4th at the Waste Management so curious to see where his ownership comes in.
Mark Hubbard
Plays well on the par 5s ranking 10th in field over the last 50 rounds so I just hope that can carry him to a good round and make the cut.
Doc Redman
Anytime birdie fests come about you have to have some Redman, he loves to score and it shows with him finishing 9th here last year.
Hudson Swafford
The good thing for him this week is the greens are easy to hit and should not have to scramble too much. That puts me on him because his ARG game is where he struggles the most.
Austin Smotherman
I lost a bet and holding my word to Kcavany21 in chat. His irons are great so maybe that will bring him to make the cut and score well.
Hayden Buckley
Loves his easy courses and has good irons so we will see how this one plays out.
GPP Core:
Talor Gooch
Matthew Wolff
