Fantasy baseball in 2025 is all about rankings, rankings and some more rankings. We totally get that. Still, there is more to baseball than spreadsheets, please tell me you believe that too, so in this piece we will attempt to answer some of the burning questions you likely have heading into the coming campaign.
What will Shohei Ohtani do for an encore?
Go 60/60?
The truth is, the guy has nowhere to go but down after one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time (.310-54-130-134-59). There are two central questions to consider with The Greatest.
1 – How will pitching impact his offense?
2 – Is he one person or two in your league?
If he’s a pitcher and hitter in one player – he’s the #1 pick in your fantasy league, period. There is no debate on that. How cautious will the Dodgers be with his arm? Will he end up on the IL because of an injury to his throwing arm? How many at-bats, if any, will he lose as a result of pitching? Totally open ended there, but adding pitching to his offense… if he’s two players… then he’s only a first round pick as a hitter.
Let’s hope for 30/30 on offense. After all, he’s only gone 30/30…once. Fair to actually set that baseline goal at 40/25 if you’re asking me.
Do we trust Blake Snell in his first year with the Dodgers?
I will never use the word trust with Blake Snell. Never ever.
Snell has made 25 starts once in three years. That doesn’t work.
Snell has thrown 130-innings once in six years. Once. In a nine year career he’s done it – twice. That doesn’t work.
How many Dodgers pitchers throw 130-innings? Here’s the list the last four years for his new team.
2021: Buehler, Urias
2022: Anderson, Gonsolin, Anderson
2023: Kershaw
2024: Glasnow, Stone
The last four years the Dodgers average two hurlers a year at 130 innings. Yikes.
That’s the biggest issue – a relative lack of workload on a consistent basis from Dodger pitchers historically, and Snell more directly. He’s also extremely inconsistent within a season. Last year he went 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts. Over his first six starts he was 0-3 with a 9.51 ERA. Hell, in 2023 when he won the Cy Young award he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA his first nine starts.
Taken that all into account – Snell will not be on any of my teams in 2025.
Is Paul Skenes the no doubt top pitcher in 2025?
He is in the conversation for sure.
Skenes was magical as a rookie going 11-3, 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 33 percent K-rate. He averaged 5.8 innings and 92.4 pitches an outing (he recorded 100 pitches in nine of 23 starts). He made 19 starts on five days rest and four on 6+ (compare that to Zack Wheeler who made 13 start on four days). Skenes actually performed better with less rest, but he will need to get that workload total up to be a true ace because his ERA is likely going up a run in 2025. Skenes has thrown 85.2, 129.1 and 160.1 innings the last three years, so he actually tossed a solid amount of innings last year if we count the minor league stuff putting him in position to ascend in 2025.
I like the stability of guys that have proven it. Skenes hasn’t done that over a full season yet, but the dominance, the consistency from start to start and the pedigree all suggest he should be an SP1 in 2025. Plus, look at that suit.
Who will Ronald Acuna be this year?
Coming back from a significant knee injury (ACL tear) reports suggest that Acuna may not be ready for Opening Day and the Braves’ GM went as far as suggesting that Acuna seems likely to miss the first month of the season.
Coming off one of the best fantasy seasons ever in 2023 (.337-41-106-149-73), Acuna struggled in a real way in 2024. He still stole 16 bases in just 49 games which totally works, but the bat wasn’t top shelf. Actually, it wasn’t close. Acuna saw his K-rate lean from 11.4 percent to 23.9, which is obviously a 100 percent increase. His launch angle remained in the single digits for the second straight year as we point out that the mark was 14.0 percent from 2018-22. So, he didn’t hit he ball as often or lift it as much last year. He also lost 2.5 mph and 5.9 percent off his barrel rate as he also didn’t hit the ball as hard. All of that is concerning.
I’d be targeting his rookie numbers this year as a baseline (.293-26-64-78-16 in 111 games) with hope that the steal total is double that number of 16. With it looking likely that his K-rate in 2023 was the outlier, it would seem wise to expect him to struggle to hit .300, and the lack of elevation with the batted ball doesn’t make it a lock that he returns to 30 homers in 2025 eiher.
How good will Roki Sasaki Be as a rookie?
With Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s campaigns last year as a baseline, what will this season’s top import have to offer? A quick scouting report.
Sasaki is 6’2, 185 lbs., right-handed and 23 years old. He’s dominated in Japan with a 30-15 record, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB. The numbers are outstanding. Note that he has thrown 129.1, 91.0 and 111.0 inning in three years, and that’s low if we’re expecting him to qualify for the ERA title. That’s a legit concern if we are prognosticating stardom in the fantasy game.
In terms of stuff… his fastball sometimes hits 100 mph and grades out at about a 70-75 on the 20-80 scale (though there has been a slightly velo drop in ‘24). It’s a huge pitch. The splitter… it might be even better. It’s a vicious pitch that batters cannot even make contact with (his K-rate on the pitch was 57 percent last year versus the 35 percent of the splitter in the Majors last season). His third offering is a slider and it grades out as above average. As a result of that profile, scouts think he could be a #1 at the big-league level.
So, who will Roki be in 2025? The stuff is elite and the makeup seems solid. However, the parks are different. The offensive game is different. The baseball is different. The usage patterns are different. The workload piece – that is an unknown – and that is likely the biggest concern here. Sasaki has a shot to win ROY. He could match the ratios of Yamamoto last year. He will strike out batters. He has the talent to be a top-25 starting pitcher in 2025, but that isn’t a price I would feel fully comfortable paying.
Will Wyatt Langford be a star this year?
Langford might have been the fastest rising player in fantasy last season. He was expected to go 20/20 and to win the ROY award going away hitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup and was even being drafted as a top-50 player late in March by some. The games started and he then struggled with health and production, and through the end of May the number were awful (.222/.288/.286 with one homer and one steal). From that point on he was effective going .263/.337/.458 with 15 homers and 18 steals over 100 games, clearly performing like the player he was drafted to be.
Given that second half growth, and the skillset, it would be disappointing if he didn’t go .260-20-85-85-20 this season.
Will Jackson Holliday be usable this year?
He was just… dreadful.
In 60 games with the Orioles, Holliday was simply swallowed up by big league pitching at .189/.255/.311 slash line with a 33 percent K-rate. As hideous as that effort was, the start was catastrophic as he went 2-for-34 with 18 punchouts leading to the unthinkable – he was demoted.
Looking at those 60 games we have no contact and a rough ISO (.121). His 8.2 percent barrel rate, and 89.3 exit velocity numbers were decidedly average leading to a .262 xwOBA (only slightly above his .251 wOBA). His skills and pedigree say he will be vastly improved. Will he take enough of a leap to distance himself from Brendan Rodgers? I just don’t know.
Will Cole Ragans arm fly off?
Ragans was terrif last season going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 223 punchouts over 186.1 innings. Now, let’s be real.
He had Tommy John surgery in 2018. In 2019 he tore the graft used in the surgery, and that caused him to miss the 2019 season after needing another surgery… yes, that is two TJ surgeries. Covid hit in 2020 causing him to fail to throw an official pitch. Wild to think he lost 2018, 2019 and 2020.
2016: 7.2 innings
2017: 57.1 innings
2018: Zero innings
2019: Zero innings
2020: Zero innings
2021: 80.2 innings
2022: 134.2 innings
2023: 124.1 innings
2024: 186.1 innings
He threw 51.2 innings more than ever before.
He threw 62 innings more than 2023.
He has never thrown 125-innings two years in a row.
Not sure we can just chalk up another 180-innings, but the arm is damn impressive.
We’re all in with Jacob deGrom, right?
Speaking about workloads…
He finally made it back from TJ surgery last year and tossed 10.2 solid innings.
Look, I’m out on deGrom. I have been for five years and I’ve slept like a baby every one of those nights. You should be too sleeping soundly too. Here at FG we play the game of WHAT IS not – what could be, though I know everyone prefers they hypothetical to the real.
What is the truth with deGrom?
1 – He is a tremendous talent but he turns 37 in June.
2 – He never plays as he’s dealt with elbow, lat, shoulder issues the last couple of years.
The facts.
The last time he threw 75-innings in the bigs was 2021.
The last time he threw 100-innings in the bigs was 2019.
Good luck.
Does Michael Harris have another level?
In just 114 games as a rookie he went .297-19-64-75-20 and appeared headed for stardom.
In his second season he went .293-18-57-76-20… virtually identical numbers, but he had 98 extra plate appearances which made the results slightly disappointing.
Last year he went .264-16-48-58-10 in 110 games, easily his worst effort in three years.
What gives?
Last year dealt with multiple health issues, and that was likely the primary culprit for his downturn even though he finally escaped the bottom third of the order hitting there in just 34 of 110 games, and that will help his counting category numbers big time.
So, what went wrong last year, besides the injuries?
The EV/LA/Barrel/HH rates were virtually identical to 2023. His BB/K was a hundredth different. His GB/FB was off a tenth. Our friend, BABIP, dropped thirty four points. If we look at his 2024 expected numbers we end up with .288 average and .470 SLG. The first two seasons of his career he hit .295 with a .494 SLG.
He’s going 20/20 this season with a massive breakout, .290-25-90-90-25 type season, possible. #Invest
Is Lawrence Butler on the precipice of becoming a star?
In 167 career games Butler has gone .250-26-67-73-18 over 580 PAs.
Last year he was insanely for a stretch of games producing at elite levels as his July was insane: .363-10-27-23-4 with a 1.210 OPS. Over the final 61 games in the second half, Butler went .300-13-32-43-12 with a .898 OPS. Overall, the athletic outfielder hit the ball harder gaining almost three mph and 10 percent in the hard-hit category compared to his rookie season. He accomplished this while doubling his walk rate and cutting his K-rate from his rookie season. He ended up with a .345 wOBA and an expected mark of .347. Sure seems like he earned the production.
Pitchers will adjust in 2025, but I really like the strides we saw from him last season. I think his 22/18 effort can become 25/25 this season and his move to playing his home games in Sacramento should boost his outlook as well as Oakland simply isn’t an offensive environment.
Is Royce Lewis worth it?
Maybe?
Look, the dude can hit. There ain’t no debate, but can he stay on the field? The data says – no. Here are the game played marks since 2020.
2020: zero
2021: zero
2022: 46
2023: 72
2024: 90
Does it matter how talented a player is – when it is impossible for him to play daily?
Speaking of the bat, his impressive .921 OPS from 2023 dipped to a blahtastic .747 in 2024. The launch angle, walk and strikeout rates were nearly identical to 2023, but there was a catastrophic drop of 3.1 mph in exit velocity, down to 87.1 mph (the league average was 88.8). Amongst players with 300 PA he checked in 120th out of 286 qualifiers in xwOBA so not nearly as poorly as in the EV column, but his .323 xwOBA was just there. I’ll chalk up some of those struggles to ill health, but isn’t that the whole point with Royce?
Grayson Rodriguez – yay or nay?
Grayson went 13-4 and upped his K-rate to 27 percent while dropping the walk rate to seven percent. He lowered his pitches an inning mark from 2023, as well. Further, if we go back 30 starts and call that a full season he’s gone 18-6 with a 3.37 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 189 punchouts in 176.1 innings. Sign me up for a campaign like that, right?
However, he also gave up more than six percent in the ground ball rate dropping to 41 percent in 2024. He was also beaten up badly by right-handed batters (.279/.336/.467 with a 1.46 HR/9 mark). Then there were the health woes. He was placed on the IR August 4th and his season was shut down in September with a lat issue that was originally called a shoulder issue. Offseason reports suggest he is fully healthy, but he wasn’t able to replicated the 163 innings he tossed in 2023 falling to just 116.2. The result is that he has just one 125 inning season on the resume.
I’m slightly more lukewarm than I want to be with Grayson. An elite, can’t miss prospect, there were only slightly more positives than negatives in ’24. Still, I’m going to be a buyer here as another year of experience and an offseason to get healthy have him lined up to post a season that vaults him into the near must-start zone in fantasy baseball with the best ratios and highest workload marks of his career.
Should we trust any Rays’ pitchers?
No.
No.
No.
First off, we have the stadium change, and that ain’t helping nobody.
Second, they burn out their arms constantly and mix n’ match as much as anybody.
In 2024 – one pitcher threw 140-innings (Zack Littell).
In 2023 – one pitcher threw 125 innings (Zach Eflin).
In 2022 – three threw 140-innings (Shane McLanahan, Corey Kluber and Drew Rasmussen).
In 2021 – one pitcher threw 125-ininings (Ryan Yarbrough).
The last four years the Rays have produced six seasons of 140 innings and nine of 125. That’s pathetic.
The last four seasons the Rays have produced just two seasons of 15 saves (Pete Fairbank at 25 and 23 the last two years). That’s pathetic.
What the Rays do works – in terms of getting outs – but does that mean I’m building my pitching staff around Rays arms? Even with the potentially dynamic talent they could run out there in their top-5 this season, I really struggle to tell anyone that they should be rostering more than one Rays pitcher on draft day.
Will Bo Bichette Rebound?
Of course he will. The question is – how much?
Bichette’s 2024 season was a catastrophe of unimaginable levels. From 2019-21 his average effort was .298-24-89-94-14 and he entered 2024 at 26 years of age. Injurie held him to a mere 81 games, and the results were flippin’ horrendous for a guy who had finished in the top-16 of the MVP vote each of the previous three years: .225-4-31-29-5 with a .598 OPS.
As noted above, he has to improve… but back to his near elite levels of 2021-23? As much as I would like to say “yes”, last season was so miserable that I simply can’t. What I can say is that I expect him to be a usable mixed league asset along the lines of Ezequiel Tovar which, admittedly, is just ho-hum. I will buy Bichette on a discount, but there will be no reaching from this guy to obtain the services of Bichette, not after that wet-noodle of a season.
THE FREE DAILY SHOW
Don’t forget about FREE show, Fantasy Sports Daily, M-F, 12pm EST.
You’re really missing out if you don’t tune in to the show either on the website, on YouTube, or at your favorite podcast service.
Find the show in podcast form on Pandora, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts.
