MLB Weekly Preview: June 28 – July 4

In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

In memory of John Cannella Sr.

They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my data collection systems and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…

While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial that will benefit me this season: using bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.

That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!

In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!

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MLB Split Report

Seven weeks have passed since the first Split Report of the season. In that early look, our purpose was to set player leader baselines for the season to track movements and trends in later reports on top of using the info as early indications. Now, players are approaching (or have exceeded) 300 plate appearances or 15 game starts on the season. We will be able to see who stayed atop the leaderboards and who broke through since the last data collection (included last report’s leaderboards so you don’t have to switch back and forth between tabs). As always, we will review the top hitters vs. left/right-handed pitchers, and inversely, top pitchers vs. left/right-handed hitters. Here are the top men in each category, and I’ll also take a look at some home/road splits.

*Stats as of the completion of games on 6/23/21 – Leaders in Bold

Top Hitters vs. LHP

• Nelson Cruz (RH) – 32/91, 12 XBH, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .390/.438/.683/1.121, .293 ISO, .475 wOBA, 206 wRC+
• Yuli Gurriel (RH) – 35/112, 15 XBH, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 1.4 BB/K, .357/.411/.633/1.043, .276 ISO, .433 wOBA, 182 wRC+
• Matt Olson (LH) – 30/112, 16 XBH, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .297/.357/.634/.991, .337 ISO, .415 wOBA, 171 wRC+
• Andrew McCutchen (RH) – 28/109, 13 XBH, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .298/.394/.596/.990, .298 ISO, .420 wOBA, 169 wRC+
• Trey Mancini (RH) – 26/99, 12 XBH, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .299/.374/.621/.994, .322 ISO, .414 wOBA, 166 wRC+
• Xander Bogaerts (RH) – 25/92, 8 XBH, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .329/.435/.539/.974, .211 ISO, .416 wOBA, 163 wRC+
• Alex Bregman (RH) – 29/103, 8 XBH, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 0.9 BB/K, .330/.427/.511/.939, .182 ISO, .397 wOBA, 159 wRC+
• Yordan Alvarez (LH) – 32/114, 13 XBH, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .320/.386/.530/.916, .210 ISO, .391 wOBA, 155 wRC+
• Rhys Hoskins (RH) – 24/105, 14 XBH, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .264/.362/.571/.933, .308 ISO, .396 wOBA, 153 wRC+
• Carlos Correa (RH) – 30/115, 10 XBH, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1.2 BB/K, .309/.417/.474/.892, .165 ISO, .388 wOBA, 153 wRC+

Min: 90 PA – No big surprise Cruz reclaims his crown as King Lefty Crusher. He has a lifetime .579 slugging percentage vs. the handedness. Mancini is our biggest riser and continues to mash the baseball against lefties. Along with improving upon his already snazzy power numbers, he is taking more walks and getting on base. Death, taxes and Astros hitters raking lefties… all of the above hold true. Bummer we will be without Bregman for a few weeks, but young replacement Abraham Toro is doing his best impression with five hits in nine at-bats against southpaws. A pair of Phillies jump into the fray, maybe due to the 25-run barnburner last week! Cedric Mullins, who did leave our leaderboard, still ranks 13^th with his 147 wRC+ and continues his remarkable breakthrough season after opting to abandon switch-hitting for the lefty stick. Joey Gallo is 12th with a 150 wRC+.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Cedric Mullins (LH) – 18/51, 5 XBH, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .383/.431/.574/1.006, .191 ISO, .434 wOBA, 188 wRC+
• Nick Solak (RH) – 17/53, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .347/.396/.571/.968, .224 ISO, .418 wOBA, 177 wRC+
• Alex Bregman (RH) – 15/49, 4 XBH, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .341/.408/.568/.976, .227 ISO, .409 wOBA, 175 wRC+
• Yuli Gurriel (RH) – 15/51, 6 XBH, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .326/.392/.543/.936, .217 ISO, .403 wOBA, 171 wRC+
• Joey Gallo (LH) – 14/64, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .275/.422/.490/.912, .216 ISO, .401 wOBA, 166 wRC+
• Matt Chapman (RH) – 11/48, 5 XBH, 4 HR, 5 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .262/.354/.571/.926, .310 ISO, .395 wOBA, 165 wRC+
• Jed Lowrie (SW) – 18/54, 6 XBH, 12 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .353/.389/.471/.859, .118 ISO, .375 wOBA, 151 wRC+
• Jose Altuve (RH) – 17/48, 2 XBH, 5 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .386/.417/.432/.848, .045 ISO, .372 wOBA, 149 wRC+
• Yordan Alvarez (LH) – 14/50, 5 XBH, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0.1 BB/K, .318/.360/.477/.837, .159 ISO, .358 wOBA, 139 wRC+
• Trey Mancini (RH) – 14/50, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .298/.320/.532/.852, .234 ISO, .361 wOBA, 137 wRC+

Top Hitters vs. RHP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RH) – 75/238, 35 XBH, 21 HR, 54 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .361/.437/.736/1.173, .375 ISO, .484 wOBA, 210 wRC+
• Jesse Winker (LH) – 72/222, 31 XBH, 16 HR, 39 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .360/.423/.680/1.103, .320 ISO, .464 wOBA, 195 wRC+
• Jared Walsh (LH) – 62/205, 31 XBH, 14 HR, 39 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .344/.420/.678/1.097, .333 ISO, .455 wOBA, 194 wRC+
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (RH) – 49/190, 27 XBH, 18 HR, 42 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .301/.384/.687/1.071, .387 ISO, .439 wOBA, 184 wRC+
• Shohei Ohtani (LH) – 46/193, 28 XBH, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .274/.368/.625/.993, .351 ISO, .412 wOBA, 165 wRC+
• Joey Wendle (LH) – 52/177, 24 XBH, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .327/.390/.572/.962, .245 ISO, .406 wOBA, 165 wRC+
• Nick Castellanos (RH) – 71/228, 29 XBH, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .343/.404/.575/.978, .232 ISO, .417 wOBA, 164 wRC+
• Matt Olson (LH) – 46/183, 22 XBH, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 1.0 BB/K, .299/.388/.584/.972, .286 ISO, .405 wOBA, 164 wRC+
• Kyle Tucker (LH) – 45/164, 22 XBH, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .308/.380/.575/.956, .267 ISO, .403 wOBA, 162 wRC+
• Rafael Devers (LH) – 53/201, 35 XBH, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .291/.348/.654/1.002, .363 ISO, .410 wOBA, 159 wRC+

Min: 150 PA – Remember when I compared Vlad Jr. and Winker last week? Well, here they are at 1 & 2. They, along with Walsh, rose to the top of the rankings. Ohtani continues to rise like Mercury in all ways of life. We knew it wouldn’t be long before Tatis Jr. joined the party, and he brought along a stellar .387 ISO. The question remains: will he continue to be the life of the party till dawn (October), or will he crash out with marker all over his face (injury)? And who dafuq invited Joey Wendle? Olson shows up on both lists vs. LHP & RHP, further substantiating his awesomeness. Devers representing the XBH! No doubt, Mike Trout (99 PA vs. RHP) would have remained here if not for being injured. Ronald Acuña Jr. has “slipped” to 20^th in wRC+ with 155. Still a solid number.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Mike Trout (RH) – 28/77, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 15 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .431/.519/.908/1.427, .477 ISO, .583 wOBA, 292 wRC+
• J.D. Martinez (RH) – 28/89, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .368/.461/.776/1.237, .408 ISO, .515 wOBA, 239 wRC+
• Jesse Winker (LH) – 28/75, 12 XBH, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .418/.480/.791/1.271, .373 ISO, .533 wOBA, 233 wRC+
• Jared Walsh (LH) – 25/80, 8 XBH, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .379/.475/.667/1.142, .288 ISO, .479 wOBA, 220 wRC+
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RH) – 30/99, 12 XBH, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .361/.465/.651/1.115, .289 ISO, .468 wOBA, 209 wRC+
• José Ramírez (SW) – 18/75, 12 XBH, 8 HR, 15 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .286/.373/.746/1.119, .460 ISO, .455 wOBA, 200 wRC+
• Nate Lowe (LH) – 20/73, 8 XBH, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .323/.425/.613/1.038, .290 ISO, .443 wOBA, 194 wRC+
• Bryce Harper (LH) – 21/75, 9 XBH, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 1.0 BB/K, .333/.440/.667/1.107, .333 ISO, .461 wOBA, 190 wRC+
• Shohei Ohtani (LH) – 22/78, 14 XBH, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .301/.346/.685/1.031, .384 ISO, .433 wOBA, 188 wRC+
• Giancarlo Stanton (RH) – 25/84, 11 XBH, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .325/.381/.649/1.030, .325 ISO, .434 wOBA, 188 wRC+
• Ronald Acuña Jr. (RH) – 27/103, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 16 RBI, 1.1 BB/K, .314/.417/.686/1.104, .372 ISO, .457 wOBA, 187 wRC+

Top Pitchers vs. LHH

• Jacob deGrom (RH) – 36.1 IP, 0.50 ERA, 42.4% K%, 4.8% BB%, 36.4% GB%, 31.8% HC%, .101/.144/.227, .163 wOBA
• Clayton Kershaw (LH) – 28.2 IP, 2.20 ERA, 28.6% K%, 4.8% BB%, 52.9% GB%, 28.6% HC%, .150/.190/.190, .173 wOBA
• Sean Manaea (LH) – 24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 35.7% K%, 4.8% BB%, 44.9% GB%, 42.0% HC%, .127/.167/.253, .184 wOBA
• Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 49.0 IP, 1.65 ERA, 33.3% K%, 7.0% BB%, 44.6% GB%, 34.9% HC%, .145/.210/.221, .197 wOBA
• Tyler Anderson (LH) – 21.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, 14.6% K%, 6.1% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 23.1% HC%, .171/.222/.224, .203 wOBA
• Tyler Glasnow (RH) – 40.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 37.2% K%, 5.5% BB%, 41.0% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .139/.186/.285, .206 wOBA
• Max Scherzer (RH) – 40.1 IP, 1.12 ERA, 36.8% K%, 6.6% BB%, 22.2% GB%, 33.3% HC%, .152/.219/.239, .208 wOBA
• José Urquidy (RH) – 31.0 IP, 3.19 ERA, 25.2% K%, 6.1% BB%, 35.5% GB%, 25.3% HC%, .168/.219/.280, .221 wOBA
• Kevin Gausman (RH) – 49.1 IP, 1.28 ERA, 31.4% K%, 4.8% BB%, 44.1% GB%, 29.2% HC%, .179/.218/.291, .224 wOBA
• Zack Greinke (RH) – 38.1 IP, 1.64 ERA, 18.4% K%, 5.7% BB%, 47.6% GB%, 21.5% HC%, .191/.234/.275, .225 wOBA

Min: 20 IP – Woodruff and Gausman jump out right away. Manaea rises to third and can be very tough on fellow lefties. However, the hard contact disturbs me. He’ll need to keep up that 44.9% ground-ball rate to maintain this status.  A trio of Mets righties shows up in the leaderboard. We all know deGrom is Superman minus the cape, but Marcus Stroman (16^th) and Taijuan Walker (14^th) have been deGrom’s Flash and Cyborg respectively. If only Aquaman (Carlos Carrasco) could get healthy, and in this universe, Thor is invited to the Justice League. The old Dark Knight of Gotham has dove into his cave of mediocrity, and Matt Harvey may soon be never heard from again. Kyle Gibson did drop significantly from the last go-around, but he still lies in the top-20 with his .255 wOBA (20^th). Meanwhile, Greinke continues to find ways to get it done.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Clayton Kershaw (LH) – 12.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 24.4% K%, 2.4% BB%, 53.3% GB%, 26.7% HC%, .125/.146/.125, .125 wOBA
• Gerrit Cole (RH) – 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 51.4% K%, 0.0% BB%, 21.2% GB%, 27.3% HC%, .130/.143/.174, .140 wOBA
• Huascar Ynoa (RH) – 14.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 26.9% K%, 3.8% BB%, 54.3% GB%, 44.4% HC%, .140/.173/.180, .160 wOBA
• Michael Kopech (RH) – 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 50.0% K%, 9.5% BB%, 56.3% GB%, 23.5% HC%, .105/.190/.184, .165 wOBA
• John Means (LH) – 11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA, 26.3% K%, 7.9% BB%, 36.0% GB%, 16.0% HC%, .114/.184/.200, .178 wOBA
• Matt Harvey (RH) – 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 14.0% K%, 2.0% BB%, 36.6% GB%, 36.6% HC%, .149/.180/.255, .191 wOBA
• Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 31.3% K%, 9.0% BB%, 42.5% GB%, 37.5% HC%, .148/.224/.180, .191 wOBA
• Tyler Glasnow (RH) – 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 38.2% K%, 4.4% BB%, 41.0% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .138/.176/.262, .192 wOBA
• Tyler Mahle (RH) – 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 35.1% K%, 10.8% BB%, 41.0% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .123/.230/.185, .201 wOBA
• Kyle Gibson (RH) – 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 15.9% K%, 0.0% BB%, 51.9% GB%, 27.8% HC%, .169/.217/.231, .203 wOBA

Top Pitchers vs. RHH

• Jacob deGrom (RH) – 35.2 IP, 0.50 ERA, 51.2% K%, 3.2% BB%, 49.1% GB%, 28.1% HC%, .125/.152/.183, .149 wOBA
• Kevin Gausman (RH) – 47.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 30.1% K%, 6.3% BB%, 46.8% GB%, 32.1% HC%, .134/.188/.220, .184 wOBA
• Anthony DeSclafani (RH) – 47.2 IP, 0.94 ERA, 22.1% K%, 7.7% BB%, 48.0% GB%, 24.4% HC%, .158/.223/.206, .196 wOBA
• Freddy Peralta (RH) – 39.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 44.6% K%, 8.8% BB%, 35.3% GB%, 26.5% HC%, .127/.209/.224, .200 wOBA
• Joe Musgrove (RH) – 38.2 IP, 1.63 ERA, 30.4% K%, 6.1% BB%, 40.2% GB%, 25.0% HC%, .162/.223/.235, .205 wOBA
• José Berríos (RH) – 48.0 IP, 3.19 ERA, 26.4% K%, 4.4% BB%, 53.3% GB%, 29.3% HC%, .172/.221/.254, .213 wOBA
• Trevor Bauer (RH) – 53.2 IP, 1.34 ERA, 36.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 37.3% GB%, 26.1% HC%, .128/.213/.257, .214 wOBA
• Gerrit Cole (RH) – 53.0 IP, 2.21 ERA, 29.5% K%, 4.5% BB%, 50.8% GB%, 32.6% HC%, .184/.220/.268, .216 wOBA
• Corbin Burnes (RH) – 36.0 IP, 2.75 ERA, 44.1% K%, 2.2% BB%, 44.3% GB%, 31.4% HC%, .188/.221/.273, .217 wOBA
• Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 46.0 IP, 2.15 ERA, 28.5% K%, 4.7% BB%, 50.5% GB%, 23.9% HC%, .164/.212/.283, .219 wOBA

Min: 20 IP – DeGrom’s overall ERA: 0.50. His ERA vs. LHH: 0.50. His ERA vs. RHH: 0.50. This is not a typo. I triple-checked. Batters will need to grow a third arm to hit him. This man is not human. Hey look, it’s that Gausman fella again. No wonder, as the 30-year-old hurler is pitching amongst the elites since calling San Francisco his home. He’s been an innings bulldog… am I allowed to call him a bulldog? Ray, can you weigh in on this one?? Gausman’s teammate, Tony Disco as my man Vlad dubs him, resides right beside with a tight .196 wOBA vs. righties.

Berríos is having a consistently solid year to date, but I’m a little skeptical about his success against RHH. While he ranks in the top-10 in both reports and even gained some ground, his career GB% vs. RHH is 43.9%, and his career FB% is 34.7%, 9.3% higher than this year’s mark. Gotta expect some regression, which will still be good, but not this good and not this consistent. That just isn’t Berríos’ style. Who has the best 1-2-3 in the league? It might be the Brewers!

Last report (5/5/21)

• Jacob deGrom (RH) – 21.2 IP, 0.42 ERA, 51.4% K%, 1.4% BB%, 40.0% GB%, 22.9% HC%, .125/.135/.194, .142 wOBA
• Joe Musgrove (RH) – 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 37.0% K%, 6.5% BB%, 53.8% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .093/.152/.163, .147 wOBA
• Corbin Burnes (RH) – 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 56.6% K%, 0.0% BB%, 45.5% GB%, 31.8% HC%, .135/.151/.212, .160 wOBA
• Cristian Javier (RH) – 13.1 IP, 0.68 ERA, 37.5% K%, 8.3% BB%, 29.2% GB%, 29.2% HC%, .095/.208/.167, .184 wOBA
• Alex Wood (LH) – 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 30.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 69.2% GB%, 22.5% HC%, .133/.200/.200, .186 wOBA
• Adbert Alzolay (RH) – 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 35.3% K%, 5.9% BB%, 37.9% GB%, 24.1% HC%, .128/.196/.213, .189 wOBA
• Anthony DeSclafani (RH) – 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 20.8% K%, 9.1% BB%, 51.9% GB%, 18.5% HC%, .129/.208/.200, .191 wOBA
• Carlos Rodón (LH) – 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 35.1% K%, 10.4% BB%, 38.5% GB%, 28.2% HC%, .091/.221/.167, .194 wOBA
• José Berríos (RH) – 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 38.8% K%, 4.5% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 33.3% HC%, .145/.209/.210, .194 wOBA
• John Means (LH) – 35.0 IP, 1.54 ERA, 31.3% K%, 5.5% BB%, 35.8% GB%, 32.1% HC%, .140/.188/.248, .195 wOBA

Best Hitters (HOME)

• Carlos Correa (RH) – 40/155, 18 XBH, 10 HR, 24 RBI, 1.1 BB/K, .315/.432/.614/1.046, .299 ISO, .439 wOBA, 190 wRC+
• Cedric Mullins (LH) – 49/166, 24 XBH, 10 HR, 17 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .336/.404/.651/1.054, .315 ISO, .441 wOBA, 184 wRC+
• Ronald Acuña Jr. (RH) – 41/179, 23 XBH, 14 HR, 30 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .289/.419/.655/1.074, .366 ISO, .445 wOBA, 183 wRC+
• Jose Altuve (RH) – 41/150, 16 XBH, 10 HR, 25 RBI, 0.9 BB/K, .318/.393/.597/.990, .279 ISO, .412 wOBA, 173 wRC+
• Matt Olson (LH) – 38/159, 21 XBH, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .284/.371/.604/.976, .321 ISO, .406 wOBA, 169 wRC+

Min: 150 PA – Cedric the Entertainer continues to have a hellacious season, especially in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards. He carries the highest batting average, hit total and extra-base hit total of this group. You can find individual leaders in each statistic here, but these are the best in combination. Acuña loves Truist Park more than a fat kid loves candy. His power has been on full display at home with 54 of his 101 career longballs fueled by home cooking. Correa and Altuve have always raked at Minute Maid Park (2021 Ballpark Factors – Runs: 1.083, Home Runs: 1.195). Matt Olson has done a lot of his aforementioned damage in a much more difficult ballpark to hit in (R: 0.871, HR: 0.790). Dude murders baseballs!

Last report (5/5/21)

• J.D. Martinez (RH) – 27/79, 14 XBH, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .391/.468/.739/1.207, .348 ISO, .505 wOBA, 228 wRC+
• Kris Bryant (RH) – 18/76, 10 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .273/.368/.515/.884, .242 ISO, .377 wOBA, 139 wRC+
• Trevor Story (RH) – 22/75, 9 XBH, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .324/.360/.529/.889, .206 ISO, .372 wOBA, 107 wRC+
• Mark Canha (RH) – 16/88, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .225/.375/.394/.769, .169 ISO, .349 wOBA, 138 wRC+
• Kiké Hernández (RH) – 17/77, 8 XBH, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .250/.325/.471/.795, .221 ISO, .341 wOBA, 115 wRC+

Best Hitters (AWAY)

• Rafael Devers (LH) – 42/160, 27 XBH, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .296/.363/.669/1.032, .373 ISO, .422 wOBA, 172 wRC+
• Jesse Winker (LH) – 52/155, 18 XBH, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .335/.387/.568/.955, .232 ISO, .407 wOBA, 160 wRC+
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RH) – 45/179, 17 XBH, 10 HR, 27 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .298/.402/.543/.945, .245 ISO, .404 wOBA, 159 wRC+
• Xander Bogaerts (RH) – 43/152, 17 XBH, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .319/.382/.519/.900, .200 ISO, .383 wOBA, 145 wRC+
• Justin Turner (RH) – 40/167, 13 XBH, 6 HR, 23 RBI, 0.9 BB/K, .288/.401/.468/.869, .180 ISO, .380 wOBA, 143 wRC+

Min: 150 PA – Road Warrior Devers makes sense. A young player stepping up to the plate away from the pressures of the home crowd. They get wicked harsh real quick. But Bogey? Eh, he does damage at home, as well. Turner is the only repeat offender of abusing pitchers on the road. Winker is a bit of a surprise for me, as I thought he would be more proficient in Great American Small Park. But then I remembered how much he likes to stick it to the opposing fans, and he has done so a leading 52 times. For Vlad, haven’t they all been on the road, technically? Tremendous year for Junior no matter what the venue. His selective approach at the plate has taken him to another level and is reflective in his leading .402 on-base percentage.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Justin Turner (RH) – 21/78, 7 XBH, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .313/.397/.507/.905, .194 ISO, .391 wOBA, 146 wRC+
• Mookie Betts (RH) – 18/77, 7 XBH, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1.0 BB/K, .277/.390/.446/.836, .169 ISO, .366 wOBA, 130 wRC+
• Corey Seager (LH) –19/85, 6 XBH, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .264/.376/.417/.793, .153 ISO, .349 wOBA, 119 wRC+
• Marcus Semien (RH) – 16/77, 5 XBH, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .235/.312/.426/.738, .191 ISO, .321 wOBA, 110 wRC+
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (RH) – 19/76, 4 XBH, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .271/.316/.371/.687, .100 ISO, .302 wOBA, 97 wRC+

Best Pitchers (HOME)

• Jacob deGrom (RH) – 47.0 IP, 0.77 ERA, 48.1% K%, 3.8% BB%, 41.6% GB%, 36.4% HC%, .104/.138/.195, .147 wOBA
• Kevin Gausman (RH) – 35.0 IP, 2.31 ERA, 32.3% K%, 3.9% BB%, 51.9% GB%, 28.4% HC%, .123/.157/.238, .174 wOBA
• Freddy Peralta (RH) – 46.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 35.3% K%, 8.1% BB%, 28.4% GB%, 31.6% HC%, .109/.197/.205, .188 wOBA
• Tyler Glasnow (RH) – 43.2 IP, 1.65 ERA, 40.5% K%, 5.5% BB%, 45.5% GB%, 43.2% HC%, .169/.215/.260, .212 wOBA
• Carlos Rodón (LH) – 31.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 35.3% K%, 5.0% BB%, 44.8% GB%, 29.4% HC%, .157/.220/.269, .219 wOBA

Min: 30 IP – Glasnow… tear! The Tropicana Faithful are hopeful for a mid-to-late August return for the 27-year-old. I breezed past Peralta before, who has also been dominant versus fellow righties. I don’t intend on writing a novel each week; it kinda just works out that way when the words start flowing, so being as concise as possible. It’s ok to think it. I am a wordy fuck. Back to Peralta: The 1.55 ERA is second to deGrom in this report (sixth overall at home). Miller Park American Family Field plays favorable to the hitters, making what Peralta has accomplished all the more impressive. Gausman has said, “Fences moved in? No problemo!” Ok, he didn’t say that, but it’d be a lot cooler if he did. However, the numbers say more than he can. Despite an “inflated” 0.77 ERA, deGrom is deGrominant at Citi Field.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Carlos Rodón (LH) – 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA, 38.8% K%, 2.0% BB%, 50.0% GB%, 21.4% HC%, .043/.082/.064, .073 wOBA
• Jacob deGrom (RH) – 23.0 IP, 0.78 ERA, 48.1% K%, 1.3% BB%, 45.0% GB%, 30.0% HC%, .128/.139/.244, .164 wOBA
• Anthony DeSclafani (RH) – 15.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 30.4% K%, 3.6% BB%, 48.6% GB%, 24.3% HC%, .167/.196/.185, .173 wOBA
• Corbin Burnes (RH) – 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 46.2% K%, 0.0% BB%, 55.9% GB%, 32.4% HC%, .172/.185/.281, .202 wOBA
• Cristian Javier (RH) – 17.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 34.4% K%, 9.4% BB%, 31.4% GB%, 25.7% HC%, .140/.234/.193, .204 wOBA

Best Pitchers (AWAY)

• Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 52.1 IP, 1.55 ERA, 32.3% K%, 7.8% BB%, 49.6% GB%, 30.7% HC%, .114/.188/.182, .174 wOBA
• John Means (LH) – 52.2 IP, 1.37 ERA, 26.4% K%, 3.6% BB%, 33.1% GB%, 25.4% HC%, .163/.198/.266, .205 wOBA
• Kevin Gausman (RH) – 61.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 30.0% K%, 6.3% BB%, 41.9% GB%, 31.8% HC%, .176/.228/.267, .221 wOBA
• Walker Buehler (RH) – 39.1 IP, 2.06 ERA, 23.3% K%, 3.4% BB%, 49.0% GB%, 31.1% HC%, .188/.222/.290, .225 wOBA
• Carlos Rodón (RH) – 42.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 37.5% K%, 8.3% BB%, 36.4% GB%, 27.3% HC%, .167/.246/.267, .230 wOBA

Min: 30 IP – No, you’re not experiencing déjà vu. That Gausman guy is here again! Home or away, the dude’s been elite, and his 1.02 ERA in 61.2 IP on the road sparkles more than a two-carat diamond. Means may be on the shelf, but when he was active, he thrived away from Camden Yards. Woodruff’s road success stems from keeping guys off base. WHAT A CONCEPT! Buehler has been LA’s most consistent starter this year, yet the 26-year-old righty has fared even better away from Chavez Ravine. His low walk rate leads this group and has been the secret to his success. Finally, Rodón is good at home and on the road. Consider yourself lucky if he’s on your roster this year cause not even Miss Cleo could see this season coming! Rodón has always had the skillset but has had health in his corner, too.

Last report (5/5/21)

• Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 35.4% K%, 7.7% BB%, 45.9% GB%, 29.7% HC%, .067/.138/.067, .107 wOBA
• Julio Urías (LH) – 21.0 IP, 0.86 ERA, 37.5% K%, 2.8% BB%, 48.8% GB%, 16.3% HC%, .114/.139/.171, .139 wOBA
• John Means (LH) – 34.2 IP, 0.78 ERA, 32.0% K%, 4.1% BB%, 37.2% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .120/.156/.179, .152 wOBA
• Danny Duffy (LH) – 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 29.9% K%, 9.0% BB%, 29.3% GB%, 39.0% HC%, .131/.209/.197, .191 wOBA
• José Berríos (RH) – 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 32.8% K%, 3.3% BB%, 43.2% GB%, 27.0% HC%, .158/.213/.228, .201 wOBA

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: Plethora of games this week – 17 teams are scheduled for seven games. Tampa Bay is the only team to draw the short end of the stick with five games. However, the Rays are scheduled to face Joe Ross, Jon Lester, Ross Stripling, Robbie Ray and potentially Alek Manoah, who would be eligible to return from suspension. Not an overwhelming lot and keeps Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and recent call-up (finally!) Wander Franco viable. And as we see in the split report for top hitters vs. RHP, Joey Wendle is playable with three righties on the docket. If the two lefties give you pause, I’ll understand the sit with his .186 batting average vs. southpaws.

A Few Areas to Target

Astros Are Ready To Take Orbit
This one is simple. Houston plays seven games this week: three home, four away. The away games are at Progressive Field, which is a mixed bag – Park Factors: R = 0.972 (11^th lowest), HR = 1.048 (13^th highest). However, they could be playing on a magnetic landing strip with baseballs made from nickel, and I would still start all of my Astro hitters. Why? Here is their pitching matchup schedule: Thomas Eshelman, Zac Lowther/Dean Kremer (my gut says Lowther), Matt Harvey, Logan Allen in his return from Triple-A, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan and J.C. Mejia. Police may need to respond to a one-eight-seven!

Red Birds in Coors for Four
St. Louis plays at MLB’s premier hitting venue this week and gets the most bang for their Joe Buck with four games. You knew I was gonna drop a pun, so stop it haha! Furthermore, their pitching matchups for the entire week are S.A.W.F.T. The Cardinals should pile up offensive statistics this week.

Rockie All Night, Party Every Red
Both Colorado and Cincinnati are home all week long. If you like offense, giddy up! These are the weeks you love rostering Rockies’ hitters, and the pitching matchups are favorable. Moreover, the Reds rank fourth in wRC+ (122), second in ISO (.215), and first in wOBA (.357) at home this year.

A Polar Bear Is Loose!
Mets are on the road for all seven games this week. Normally for most teams, this could be a negative, depending on park shifts. However, for Pete Alonso, he has enjoyed his time away from Citi Field. Even though Pete believes he can hit the ball out of any ballpark, Citi does have the 14^th lowest home run park factor (1.000, middle of the pack) this season. Furthermore, the park ranks fourth-lowest in terms of runs (0.891). Alonso and the Mets travel to Washington for a make-up game, Atlanta, and then return to New York only the Bronx. Nationals Park ranks fourth-most in runs and second-most in home runs. Truist Park in Georgia ranks 15th in both runs and home runs, while Yankee Stadium registers the second-lowest runs and fifth-lowest home runs. A mixed bag but historically good-hitting parks.

As I wrote, Alonso has enjoyed his time on the road this year, and this is why I single him out. In the spirit of our split report, here are his splits:

• 27 Home Games: .209 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBI
• 34 Road Games: .289 BA, 10 HR, 29 RBI

WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. Let’s face facts. Unless you own any Met and/or Yankee players or live in the Tri-State Area, you could give a rat’s ass about the Subway Series. 

Mets have a lot of options for handling the DH. Here’s the 411. Brandon Nimmo should come off the IL on 6/29, taking ABs away from Kevin Pillar as well as Billy McKinney and Albert Almora Jr. However, with the added DH by week’s end, I can see some salvation. One of Pete Alonso or Dom Smith will occupy DH with the other playing first (my guess, Alonso DH). This will free up left field for the aforementioned outfielders. Manager Luis Rojas will play the matchups and defensive scenarios, and you should too if taking a flier or in a deep league. Yankees are scheduled to throw Gerrit Cole, Michael King and Jameson Taillon, all righties. McKinney will be the biggest benefactor, but Pillar has been hitting the ball hard over the last seven to ten days. Plus, Pillar or Almora can help ease Nimmo into action.

As for Choi and Díaz, Ji-Man should start both games (vs. Joe Ross, RH – Jon Lester, LHP), and Yandy could slide over to third if manager Kevin Cash opts to sit Joey Wendle against the lefty. FWIW, Choi has five hits in his last nine at-bats, including a home run.

*Rivalry Series: Subway

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

1. Brandon Woodruff⁴ (CHC, @PIT) ← Aaron Ashby’s spot start on 6/30 gives rotation rest. Peralta keeps second start, but unfortunately for this week, Woodruff loses his. He tentatively lines up for 7/5 @NYM.
2. Trevor Bauer⁸ (SF, @WSH)
3. Lucas Giolito¹⁶ (MIN, @DET)
4. Zack Greinke²⁰ (BAL, @CLE)
5. Freddy Peralta²⁷ (CHC, @PIT)
6. Robbie Ray²⁸ (SEA, TB)
7. Trevor Rogers³⁰ (@PHI, @ATL)
8. Charlie Morton³² (NYM, MIA)
9. Anthony DeSclafani³³ (@LAD, @ARI)
10. Dylan Cease³⁷ (MIN, @DET)
11. Kyle Hendricks⁴⁷ (@MIL, @CIN)
12. Blake Snell⁴⁹ (@CIN, @PHI)
13. Rich Hill⁵² (@WSH, @TOR)
14. Kenta Maeda⁵⁴ (@CHW, @KC)
15. Germán Márquez⁵⁷ (PIT, STL)

Other Options: Dylan Bundy⁵⁸ (@NYY, BAL), Nick Pivetta⁶⁵ (KC, @OAK), James Kaprielian⁹⁹ (TEX, BOS), Jameson Taillon¹⁰⁰ (LAA, NYM), Wade Miley¹¹⁴ (PHI, CHC), Tyler Anderson¹¹⁵ (@COL, MIL), Bailey Ober¹¹⁹ (@CHW, @KC), Garrett Richards¹²⁰ (KC, @OAK) ← Ober and Cease above lose second start due to 6/28 PPD (game to be made up 7/19)

Danger Zone: Chris Flexen¹²¹ (@TOR, TEX), Mike Foltynewicz¹²³ (@OAK, @SEA), Brad Keller¹²⁵ (@BOS, MIN), Joe Ross¹⁴⁸ (TB, LAD), Carlos Martínez^NR (ARI, @COL), Vince Velasquez^NR (MIA, SD), Kyle Freeland^NR (PIT, STL), Michael King^NR (LAA, NYM), Jerad Eickhoff^NR (@WSH, @NYY), Eli Morgan^NR (DET, HOU), J.C. Mejia^NR (DET, HOU), Thomas Eshelman^NR (@HOU, @LAA), Wade LeBlanc^NR (ARI, @COL) ← DZ crowded this week… Choose wisely!

For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 28 – JULY 4

Pitcher Spotlight: Aaron Nola

Congratulations are in order for Mr. Nola. In case you missed it, he tied a 51-year-old record by striking out 10 consecutive Met batters in his most recent start. Ironically, he tied Tom Seaver against his team and in their city. If you did miss it, you’re not alone. Apparently, his teammates didn’t realize the historic mark when Nola strode into the dugout, barely receiving a high-five or a handshake. It is quite an accomplishment, considering how many have tried and failed while throwing in the strikeout era in which we live. 

Nola was electric. His curve was dialed in from twelve to six. The fastball had significant tailing action, emblematic of years past. Additionally, he had great arm action on his changeup, disguising its lower velocity until it was too late. In a season where Nola hasn’t exactly looked himself, we saw the Nola of old. Ok, maybe that’s too strong of a statement, but the numbers have been elevated so far (entering his last start): 4.22 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 37.3% hard-hit rate, 38.0% fly-ball rate, 41.0% ground-ball rate, 1.22 WHIP. His 1.80 ABA is solid and makes for a reliable fantasy arm, but we’ve regularly seen him in the 1.55-1.79 range. 

Nola’s CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs) currently sits at 30.2%, which is good yet down from his career mark of 31.6% and even further removed from his career-high 33.4% in 2016. This correlates to his SIERA, which is usually in the 3.25-3.40 range. So, the numbers are off here, but not that far off and could indicate positive regression. This hypothesis is supported by his 26.7% strikeout rate (career 26.6%), and his walk rate has been wicked low at 5.9% despite the down numbers above. When considering his career numbers (3.54 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA, 34.1% hard-hit rate, 30.3% fly-ball rate, 49.6% ground-ball rate, 1.17 WHIP), Nola screams positive regression and a strong second half. By the way, his xERA is 3.85.

Did we see the beginning of a strong run on 6/25? I believe so, and now would be the time to buy low if a leaguemate is inpatient and willing to swap. 

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

José Abreu exited after being hit by a pitch on the left knee in the bottom of the sixth inning of the White Sox resumed game with the Mariners. Despite not being able to put any weight on his leg, X-rays were negative. He’s day-to-day with a left knee contusion. 

Bryce Harper is experiencing left calf tightness after catching a 92mph slider off his lower leg, according to Todd Zolecki. As expected, Phillies held him out of the lineup on 6/27, and he too is day-to-day. Mounting injuries are slowly derailing his season.

Josh Fleming (right calf strain) – Fleming went 3.2 innings in his most recent appearance, serving as the primary pitcher, but his time on the mound was cut short with injury. He was placed on the 10-day IL on 6/26, but the expectation is he’ll be back after the minimum. Can you say, “workload management?”

Danny Duffy has become a hybrid pitcher as he comes back from a forearm injury. And just when you thought we’ve heard every term for a pitcher.

Josh Naylor – Manager Terry Francona announced Naylor has an “unspecified leg fracture and the specifics of the injury remain unclear,” Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports. Naylor was carted off the field after a collision with Ernie Clement.

Here’s your (seemingly) weekly Dinelson Lamet update. Lament experienced a slight dip in velocity and erratic control of his slider in his most recent start and was pulled after 2.1 innings, giving up four runs on six hits. Manager Jayce Tingler said the 28-year-old pitcher is dealing with forearm fatigue and his removal was precautionary. Lament said he had trouble gripping his slider – go figure! Maybe MLB should adopt a more “tackier” baseball similar to the Japanese leagues. Would certainly help keep pitchers healthier and help in the sticky stuff saga. Lament will be further evaluated to determine his status for his next scheduled game against Philadelphia this weekend. This Just In: Tingler is a liar haha. After evaluation, they found inflammation in the forearm and have placed Lamet on the 10-day IL. His partner in injury, Ryan Weathers, should be called up to take his rotation spot.

Steven Matz (COVID-19 IL) will return to start 6/30 vs. Seattle, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. He recently threw 60 pitches of live BP and should be able to reach 75-80 pitches.

Jesse Winker (right hip contusion) – After exited his game on 6/26 when he got banged up on a diving attempt in the field, Winker was held out of the lineup the following day. However, Winker and the team do not expect it to be a long-term issue.

Finally, as discussed on Ray’s Rundown, Mike Soroka had just shed his walking boot in an attempt to take his long-winding rehab from an Achilles tear to the next level. Sadly, the right-hander tore his surgically repaired right Achilles tendon while simply walking into the home clubhouse at Truist Park. Soroka will undergo season-ending surgery.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAM OF THE WEEK

→ Matt Manning¹²⁰, RH DET (@CLE, CHW; 65% owned) – Manning is still a heavily regarded prospect despite his stock taking a bit of a hit over the past year. While he hasn’t moved the needle up in the majors, he hasn’t lowered it either with two respectable starts (10.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, 1-1 record). The pedigree and the skillset are there to be tapped. He faces Cleveland and an injury-plagued White Sox team that can be maximized.

Honorable Mention: Caleb Smith¹¹⁶, LH ARI (@STL, SF; 55-60% owned)

Solo Start: Jon Gray⁶⁰, RH COL (PIT; 65% owned)

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, July 4, 2021

And finally, the more things change, the more they stay the same…

STOLEN BASE TARGETS

If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!

So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!