In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my systems of data collection and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…
While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial which will benefit me this season: utilization of bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.
That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!
In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!
Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article you wanna read and boom.. presto… alakazam.
The New Baseball Still Seems Juiced
MLB altered the baseball for the 2021 season ever so slightly. After we saw a record 6,776 home runs in 2019, scientists commissioned by Major League Baseball determined baseballs being used had less drag on average than in previous seasons. They felt this was a key reason for the dramatic elevation in the number of home runs. Inconsistencies in seam height were credited as the reason for the boom. In our MLB Draft Guide, Ray shared his thoughts on the ball change and what it means for hitters and pitchers. If you haven’t read it, I suggest you go back and have a look!
The Rawlings factory in Costa Rica manufactures the balls used by MLB. They are hand-sewn, and because of this, can have minor deviations. A coefficient of restitution (COR) is required by the league. In case you don’t have a Ph.D. from MIT – don’t worry, I don’t either – COR represents the “bounciness” of the baseballs. Ranging from .530 to .570, the average COR had trended toward the top of that range in recent years. To solve the issue, Rawlings loosened the tension on the first of three wool windings within the ball. They believe this action will lower COR slightly, while also lessening the ball’s weight by 2.8 grams without changing its size. In trials, the independent lab found the new balls will fly one to two feet shorter on balls hit over 375 feet.
Has MLB accomplished its goal? Let’s have a look at various home run metrics from the games played so far and compare the numbers to 2019 & 2020 to show what (if any) effects the new baseball is having. We’ll begin with Spring Training.
According to an interesting article I read by Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur of ‘The Ringer,’ the data from the spring say MLB failed to accomplish their task. As a matter of fact, “the early returns suggest that the new ball is far from dead. In some respects, it seems more lively than ever. In fact, batted balls this spring have been more likely to leave the yard than they were in any preceding exhibition season dating back at least 15 years.” With the changes made, home run rates should decrease by about five percent. Spring Training box scores and Statcast ball flight tracking data indicate Grapefruit and Cactus League home run activity is on par with previous springs. This chart shows Spring Training and Regular Season HR/Contact rates in each season since 2006 (courtesy of The Ringer).
Now, onto the season so far. Most teams have played at least four games at this point. As Kyle Elfrink pointed out in a recent edition of the Baseball Elite Podcast, we’ve already seen two four-HR innings so far this regular season (in SD on Opening Day & on 4/2 in COL). I’m seeing current home-run leaders named Evan Longoria, Whit Merrifield, Michael A. Taylor and Colin Moran, to name a few. Yeah, those seams and loosened wool winding are not having the desired effect. However, let the numbers speak for themselves (through four games).
| Home Runs | HR/Contact | # of HR Hitters | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 105 | 5.4% | 109 |
| 2020 | 97 | 5.1% | 101 |
| 2021 | 101 | 5.0% | 107 |
At the end of the day, we all love home runs, especially in fantasy. As long as the new balls are indeed not affecting pitchers’ grips or pitches, then we are good. Quite the opposite, according to Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole, who love the feel and results so far. They are similar to these former baseball greats, who reminded us, chicks dig the long ball…
Full Disclosure: This embed idea and original concept was pilfered from Mr. Ray Flowers, aka Oracle, aka The Fantasy Pterodactyl, aka Easter Bunny, aka Dexter Kitty’s Proud Papa… C’mon, STEP INTO IT!
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
THIS JUST IN (4/4, 7pm, via Ken Rosenthal): Monday’s Nationals/Braves game has been postponed. *4/5 UPDATE: Nationals to play a doubleheader vs. Atlanta Braves on 4/7 to make up Monday’s game (both games seven innings). Look to be on track to play 4/6 with call-ups from taxi squad & alternate site. At Monday’s workout, Trea Turner, Josh Bell and Yan Gomes were not among the players present, according to multiple reports. No confirmations whether these players were three of the four players to contract Covid or if they are in quarantine.
Washington rotational effects are in flux without a clear picture for when the team will return to play from their COVID outbreak. Important to stay flexible, as we learned last season. I did my best to capture the most accurate left/right splits. If they do indeed return against Atlanta to begin the week, the Nationals will face a BP game on 4/7 since Mike Soroka isn’t expected to be ready to make his 2021 debut until late April. However, both long relievers for the Bravos are righties (Josh Tomlin, Huascar Ynoa). As for the Mets, the schedule change could allow for them to work with a four-man rotation until 4/14 and subsequently skip Joey Lucchesi, who was planning to follow opener Jacob Barnes on 4/10 before the schedule change.
Toronto is the only team that plays every day this week. On 4/6, they will face promising prospect Dane Dunning, who the Rangers acquired in the Lance Lynn deal. However, it will only be for 1-2 trips through the lineup, as he will pitch in tandem with Wes Benjamin (LH). Dunning is expected to open the game, and this tandem will help mitigate his innings early on since he hasn’t pitched much over the last two seasons due to injury. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Royals, Indians and Astros only play five games this week.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. We don’t see that this week, however. Instead, a positive shift occurs with two NL teams gaining the extra batter. With LA, pick your poison here! From what I gather, the prudent move is to shift AJ Pollock to DH and start Chris Taylor in left. The 33-year-old outfielder has had a plethora of injuries over the last few seasons, so ABs without the strain of playing the field are welcomed. If they start both players in the field, Gavin Lux could DH, or Dodgers are always looking to get Edwin Ríos ABs. My prediction: two starts for Pollock at DH, one for Ríos with another in the field.
As for San Diego, their series in Texas is a prime opportunity to get Kim more plate appearances to further acclimate him to the North American game. However, the Rangers will fire out all RHP, and the Padres aim to start Kim against southpaws. Another option is sliding Caratini to DH for leg rest and starting Luis Campusano behind the dish.
*Rivalry Series: None, although Dodgers/A’s should be.
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE
- Jacob deGrom (@PHI, MIA)
- Max Scherzer (ATL,
@LAD) - Tyler Glasnow (@BOS,
NYY) - Germán Márquez (ARI, @SF)
- Dustin May (@OAK, WSH)
- Sandy Alcántara (STL, @NYM)
- Frankie Montas (LAD, @HOU)
- Marcus Stroman (@PHI, MIA?)
- Jordan Montgomery (BAL, @TB)
- Anthony DeSclafani (@SD, COL)
- Steven Matz (@TEX, LAA)
- Luke Weaver (@COL, CIN)
- Drew Smyly (@WSH, PHI) – Should stay intact, just Tues/Sun now
- Carlos Rodón (@SEA, KC)
- Daniel Ponce de Leon (@MIA, MIL)
Continuing the Mets discussion above, if New York does indeed opt to skip Lucchesi, they have an off-day on 4/9, which would set up both deGrom AND Stroman for two starts. Even if the team doesn’t go this route, deGrom will still pull double duty. Mets beat writer Anthony DiComo says the team does intend to pitch deGrom on regular rest. My money is on both of them going two-stepping! Glasnow’s second start depends on if the Rays keep Rich Hill pitching in tandem with Chris Archer. With the 4/8 off-day, the start versus the Yankees on 4/11 would also be on regular rest. *UPDATE: Michael Wacha is slated to pitch 4/11.
For a detailed breakdown of more two-start pitchers during the season who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 5 – 11
As a result of Monday’s ATL/WSH postponement: 1) Max loses second start… whaw, 2) Strasburg remains vs. ATL, 3) Corbin shifts to @LAD. Also, Ohtani has been scratched from 4/11 start @TOR due to his blister issue resurfacing. His bat, however, remains in the lineup. Alex Cobb will move ahead in the six-man rotation and take the 4/11 start. No word if Ohtani will pitch 4/12 (or in any game) against KC.
Pitcher Spotlight: The Return of the Dark Knight?
Matt Harvey (<5% owned) gave up two runs on six hits in 4.2 IP against Boston on 4/3, whiffing four while issuing only one free base. Additionally, the second run was a bit of bad luck, as a sharp comebacker to the 32-year-old pitcher careened off his body into no man’s land, scoring a run. He was spotting his fastball on the black and hitting 95 on the gun. The pitch was lively with lots of late movement. It was an encouraging outing for Harvey, who’s posted a disgusting 6.09 ERA over the last four seasons. He narrowly missed the win, coming one out short.
Boston’s lineup, while coming off a poor short season, is still formidable to be posting such results. Besides J.D. Martinez’ 3-for-4, most everyone was held in check. So, has the Dark Knight returned? Not exactly. The start more mirrored Old Bruce Wayne than the Caped Crusader. Harvey labored at times through his 4.2 innings yet was effective. He did look to be in great shape, and as I eluded to before, I liked his fastball. If he can continue the control he demonstrated this past weekend, Harvey could return to fantasy relevancy as a streaming option.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Trevor Rosenthal (right shoulder inflammation) – Oakland placed Rosenthal on the 10-day IL on 4/1. Slated to be the team’s closer, we last saw him take the mound on 3/29 in a Spring Training tilt. He has not had an MRI yet, and the team hopes that medication he has taken will resolve the injury by next week, Alex Coffey of The Athletic reports. While on the shelf, manager Bob Melvin will utilize a combination of Jake Diekman, Sergio Romo, Lou Trivino and even J.B. Wendelken for late-inning high leverage work. Diekman could be the favorite to close, as Ray outlines in his Closer Grid. Mike Fiers will also start the season on 10-day IL with a lumbar strain… if you even care. *UPDATE: Rosenthal underwent thoracic outlet surgery. He’ll be re-evaluated in eight weeks.
On the offensive side of the ball, Ramón Laureano (wrist) remained out of the lineup over the weekend. He is considered day-to-day at the moment, and Melvin was optimistic the center fielder would not require a stint on the injured list. However, he said Laureano is likely to miss at least a couple of days.
Sixto Sánchez (slight shoulder discomfort) reported the issue during a simulated game on 3/31 at the alternate training site. He felt the pain in the posterior part of his right shoulder. The team exercised extreme caution with their prized prospect, who has battled his fair share of injuries despite being just 22 years old, and they pulled Sixto from the sim game in the third inning. He had been scheduled to throw five frames or roughly 75 pitches. MRI results indicate only mild inflammation, so may have dodged a bullet. Still, Sixto’s timetable for a return is clouded, and he’s not likely to be in the mix for when the Marlins first need a fifth starter on 4/14. A few days’ rest is what the doctor has ordered, followed by a slow progression on a throwing program.
Luis Castillo had about as rough an Opening Day start as one could have: 10 R – 8 ER – 8 H – 2 BB – 0 K – 3.1 IP. Particularly noteworthy, his velo was down.
Velocity (mph)
| 4/1 | 2020 | DIF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 94.9 | 97.5 | -2.6 |
| Slider | 83.6 | 86.8 | -3.2 |
| 4-Seam | 94.4 | 97.4 | -3.0 |
| Change | 84.9 | 88.9 | -4.0 |
Furthermore, according to Statcast, he threw his changeup only 18 times out of 73 pitches (24.7% – 30% in 2020), opting to throw more sinkers and sliders. The bitter cold in Cincinnati could easily be the culprit here. Or maybe Luis just flat out didn’t have it. However, when I see drops in velo this stark, I immediately think something is wrong physically – either mechanical or a sign of injury. I also could just be a paranoid owner, but this situation does bear monitoring. He’s scheduled to start 4/7 against Pittsburgh at home. If he once again scuffles, my radar will be at high alert!
Colorado Rockies pitcher Jon Gray left his start on 4/3 with what was described as “full-body cramping.” May I suggest some Midol? He’ll make his next start but is considered day-to-day. However, I question his manhood. *UPDATE: Gray is expected to make his next start, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports.
Ji-Man Choi (knee) was placed on the 10-day IL due to arthroscopic surgery. He will require 4-5 weeks of recovery. As a result, both Yoshi Tsutsugo and Yandy Díaz will get play at first base and more at-bats overall.
Ke’Bryan Hayes (left wrist) was pulled on 4/3 against the Cubs in the third inning with left wrist discomfort, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported X-rays came back negative. The Buccos can sleep easy, knowing Hayes avoided a serious injury. He suffered the ailment while diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt. He is currently day-to-day… aren’t we all. *UPDATE: Hayes hits the 10-day IL on 4/4. He is dealing with some inflammation.
Oh, look, another wrist injury. Michael Brantley (right wrist) was removed from the Astros’ game on 4/3 after getting plunked by a fastball. Brantley tried to tough it out and even went back out into the field. However, he was replaced by pinch-hitter Chas McCormick his next at-bat. X-rays were negative, which is a sigh of relief for a Houston team who could ill afford to lose Brantley. He could still miss time, so we will keep tabs. *UPDATE: Dusty Baker said he expects Brantley to avoid the injured list, but the outfielder may not be ready to rejoin the lineup until 4/6 versus the Angels, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Josh Donaldson (hamstring) – The Twins placed Donaldson on the 10-day IL (retroactive to 4/2) with a mild right hamstring strain. Donaldson hurt the hamstring while running the bases after stroking a double. He is scheduled to hit and work out on 4/4. His absence from the lineup may be short-lived and is an example of Minnesota being careful with the Brittle One.
Elieser Hernandez’ (right biceps inflammation) 2021 debut was short-lived, lasting a mere 34 pitches. Shortly after leaving the game, he received the diagnosis from the team’s medical staff despite it initially appearing to be a blister. His velo had dropped to 85.3 mph after averaging 91 at the beginning of the game. Hernandez is currently still scheduled to start 4/8 against the Mets as of this writing. I will let you know when I know. *UPDATE (4/5, 3:30pm): Hernandez has been placed on the 10-day IL. He is visiting a doctor today to provide a clearer diagnosis and timeline for his return.
Dodgers place Tony Gonsolin on IL with right shoulder inflammation.
POV SPECIAL – TOP SP STREAM OF THE WEEK
→ José De León, RH CIN (PIT, @ARI – 12% owned) – Last week’s special was just that. Special. Chris Flexen outperformed even my expectations, going five strong with six strikeouts, two walks, zero runs and only five hits. His offense put together four runs, and Flex had himself a dub. Did I start him in one or two leagues? You bet your sweet ass, I did. DFS too. They won’t always work out like this, but it sure is fun when it does! On to JDL…
De León earned himself a spot on the roster by showing this spring the once heralded potential the Dodgers saw when they drafted him in the 24th round of the 2013 MLB Draft. A diamond in the rough, he shot up the landscape of LA’s farm system like gangbusters. However, injuries and ineffectiveness on the major league level have left his supporters flat, to say the least. He led the Reds in Spring Training with 24 strikeouts in five spring games over 16.2 innings. De León’s sinking fastball was clocked at 96 mph, a three-year high. It has filthy movement and plays well with his breaking stuff. That’s the good. The bad? Consistency with location, leading to a spring ERA of 8.64 with five home runs allowed (2.78 HR/9). So, he’s definitely a gamble.
However, several pitchers will tell you, they are less concerned with the offensive production they allow in Spring Training and more concerned with how the ball feels coming out of their hand as well as staying healthy. Also, they tend to experiment with pitch grip, locations on the rubber and even new pitches. Despite pitching this week in the launching pad that is Great American Ballpark, he gets a creampuff opening matchup vs. Pittsburgh, who is minus young star Ke’Bryan Hayes. Nobody else in this lineup scares me. De León’s second start is conditional on Tejay Antone’s (hip) status, both in health and role on the team. *UPDATE: De León has been confirmed for second start @ARI. After allowing two first-inning solo bombs, his first start worked out pretty well, I’d say (as he braggartly pats himself on the back).
Honorable Mention: Logan Allen, LH CLE (KC, DET – 33% owned) – The Indians are still unsure if they will use Allen as a bulk pitcher or traditional starter. This bumps him down to honorable mention. Plus, despite his Spring Training success, it may be wise to see if it translates to the regular season. I believe it will. If you have an open pitching slot for the week or are playing in a daily league, take a shot! He’s in phenomenal shape and had more than a strikeout per inning in the spring.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, April 11, 2021
(Record, ERA / xFIP / SIERA)
Nick Pivetta (RHP, BOS: 1-0, 0.00 / 6.37 / 6.47) @ Jorge López (RHP, BAL: 0-1, 7.71 / 4.42 / 4.57)
Trevor Williams (RHP, CHC: 1-0, 3.00 / 2.95 / 2.69) @ JT Brubaker (RHP, PIT: 0-0, 2.25 / 4.02 / 4.86)
Alex Cobb (RHP, LAA: 0-0, 4.50 / 2.69 / 2.46) @ Tanner Roark (RHP, TOR: 0-1, 15.00 / 6.41 / 5.54)
José Ureña (RHP, DET: 0-1, 15.00 / 4.40 / 5.81) @ Logan Allen (LHP, CLE: 0-1, 3.60 / 4.54 / 4.61)
TBD (MIA: 0-0, -.– / -.– / -.–) @ Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM: 1-0, 1.50 / 3.95 / 3.00)
~Most likely candidate: Paul Campbell for a spot start or BP game.
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY: 1-0, 0.00 / 2.55 / 2.39) @ Brent Honeywell* (RHP, TB: 0-0, -.– / -.– / -.–)
*Opener; long-awaited debut… first appearance since 2017! Scheduled starter Michael Wacha (RHP, TB: 0-1, 7.20 / 3.68 / 3.83) will take over in the second or third.
Chris Flexen (RHP, SEA: 1-0, 0.00 / 4.03 / 3.68) @ Matt Shoemaker (RHP, MIN: 1-0, 1.50 / 3.79 / 3.55)
Mike Minor (LHP, KC: 1-0, 6.00 / 5.04 / 4.17) @ Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW: 0-0, 5.79 / 5.73 / 5.89)
Brett Anderson (LHP, MIL: 0-1, 7.20 / 4.23 / 4.02) @ Daniel Ponce de Leon (RHP, STL: 1-0, 1.80 / 6.86 / 5.37)
Adrian Morejon (LHP, SD: 0-0, 4.50 / 4.20 / 4.62) @ Mike Foltynewicz (RHP, TEX: 0-1, 9.00 / 3.20 / 3.59)
Germán Márquez (RHP, COL: 0-0, 3.60 / 5.02 / 5.43) @ Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, SF: 0-0, 1.80 / 5.08 / 5.00)
José De León (RHP, CIN: 0-0, 3.60 / 2.48 / 2.27) @ Luke Weaver (RHP, ARI: 0-0, 4.76 / 4.23 / 4.49)
Max Scherzer (RHP, WSH: 0-0, 6.00 / 3.03 / 2.38) @ Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LAD: 1-1, 4.26 / 3.32 / 3.37)
Matt Moore (LHP, PHI: 0-0, 5.40 / 6.43 / 6.31) @ Drew Smyly (LHP, ATL: 0-0, 3.00 / 2.43 / 2.37)
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY! Promo code Red10 gets you 10% off ANY Elite Sports Package, including VIP.
