In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Outwork, Everyone. That’s the name of the game. Right now, your opponents are becoming weak, taking vacations, and getting ready for their fantasy football drafts. Ok, we are doing that last one, too. But with the help of our gorgeous NFL team here at Fantasy Guru, there are no worries. Fantasy baseball is a marathon and one that many are ill-equipped to handle. My hope is, every week when I write this article, that I offer you the edge to maintain a balanced lifestyle whilst crushing the competition. Full disclosure: I’m attempting to lead a balanced lifestyle this week. Luckily, I was able to travel to DC to watch my favorite pitcher make his triumphant return after 391 days. Even as I type these words in a Baltimore hotel room, I’m also spending time with my niece and enjoying the sites.
I appreciate all of your patience, especially all of our beloved animals in the Discord chat. Because even though I’m “Griswolding” it this week, I am here for you. I am here to provide you with the nuts and bolts to continue winning in Week 19. Let’s ::Bleeping:: GO!
Seven-Game Week: BAL, KC (six days), CHW (six days), MIA (six days), PIT, ARI
Six-Game Week: NYY, BOS, TOR, DET, CLE, LAA, SEA, OAK, TEX, HOU, WSH, NYM, ATL (five days), PHI, STL, CIN (Friday off-day), CHC (Friday off-day), SF, SD, COL
Five-Game Week: TB, MIN, MIL, LAD
A Few Areas to Target
Take Flight
We have to dig into the six-gamers this week with so many, and naturally, the Rockies at home all week stands out like a sore thumb. Coors Field has caught up to Great American Ball Park with a 111 overall Statcast Park Factor this season. Furthermore, Colorado’s .350 wOBA at home is the highest in MLB this season.
Care Bears
The Cubs have a few things going for them this week, enhancing the outlook for their hitters. One, the opposing starting pitching corps consists of such arms as Aníbal Sánchez, Paolo Espino and Justin Dunn, and it doesn’t get better with the WSH & CIN pen. Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA with 5.07, while the Nationals’ relief arms aren’t much better with a 4.24 (seventh-worst). Two, they travel to the aforementioned Great American Ball Park. Despite being tied with Coors Field in overall park factor, they are still rocking the homers with a 154 Statcast factor (Coors – 110). All Nico Hoerner (33% rostered in redraft, 80% dynasty) does is hit yet is hanging around in a fair amount of leagues. Some O-fers have popped up of late, causing doubt in some, but he merits streaming consideration following a 3-for-4 day on 8/6 and the above rationale.
Lefty Killers
The Cards boast some of the finest numbers in the league versus left-handed pitching: .266 BA (third), .777 OPS (third), .337 wOBA (third), .168 ISO (ninth), 121 wRC+ (second). Just so happens, St. Louis is set to face three lefty starters this week. Beginning the week in Coors is nice, especially against substandard starters and a dreadful bullpen (4.72 ERA, second-worst). Dylan Carlson (59%, 88%) is a no-brainer stream if available in your league. But perhaps peeps forgot about Paul DeJong (2%, 29%)? He found his home-run stroke in the minors – even carrying the boomstick into MLB with 2 HR in the first two games back – and has a hit in four of seven games. The production could pick up steam this week!
Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
The Diamondbacks are not what we would call a bad offense. They carry the ninth-highest ISO with .161… if only they could get on base more to set the table. However, they’re in a bad way with a 47-59 record, 26.5 games out of first place in the NL West and 11.5 games out of Wild-Card positioning. With little to play for, guys like recently promoted Seth Beer (<1%, 29%) will put forth efforts to illustrate they belong. Overall for the team, the schedule is succulent. First, they host the Buccos for four:
- Tyler Beede
- Zach Thompson
- Mitch Keller
- JT Brubaker
Second, the D’backs will slither into Colorado with three over the weekend to wrap the week. Bump up the values for 1-5 (J. Rojas, A. Thomas, K. Marte, C. Walker, D. Varsho), and Carson Kelly (14%, 46%) makes for an interesting streamer if you’re hurting at catcher. He’s found his stroke of late, slashing .360/.417/.707 with 6 HR, 19 R and 15 RBI since 6/26! IKR
O Canada
While playing at home presents certain advantages for Toronto (@BAL – 3, CLE – 3), our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Players who are not vaccinated can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game. For the Guardians, we will have to stay tuned later in the week! UPDATE: James Karinchak is the only player on Cleveland’s 26-man roster without the vaccine, according to Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*As of 8/4/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Zack Wheeler14 (MIA, @NYM)
- Chris Bassitt19 (CIN, PHI)
- Zac Gallen21 (PIT, @COL)
- Logan Gilbert25 (NYY, @TEX)
- Shane Bieber28 (@DET, @TOR)
- Charlie Morton30 (@BOS,
@MIA) ⬅️ “Uncle Charlie” picks up a second start with Max Fried hitting the Seven-day Concussion IL. ATL does an about-face, promoting Kyle Muller to pitch in doubleheader and pushing Spencer Strider to 8/14. Makes sense for Strider, but why not have this plan from jump street instead of straight lying? MF! - Miles Mikolas35 (@COL, MIL)
- Alex Wood48 (@SD, PIT)
- Martín Pérez49 (@HOU, SEA)
- Brady Singer50 (CHW, LAD)
- Blake Snell54 (SF, @WSH)
- Lance Lynn59 (@KC, DET)
*Geez, that’s some ugly two-steppers in the top-10… kinda like me at the Moonrise Festival. Thank goodness a recently resurgent Lynn comes in at number 11 with some real nice matchups. It’s like that one time I came in right when the beat dropped perfectly and could not replicate all evening.
Other Options: Cole Irvin67 (LAA, @HOU), Jameson Taillon83 (@SEA, @BOS), Jordan Lyles107 (TOR, @TB), Kyle Freeland111 (STL, ARI), Yusei Kikuchi123 (BAL, CLE)
*Freeland is being pushed to 8/10 with Ryan Feltner entering the rotation on 8/9 rather than 8/13 as earlier reported. Kikuchi loses second start due to 8/10 PPD & TOR keeping Mitch White in rotation. Lyles will keep his second start, even with DL Hall (MLB No. 22 ranked prospect & BAL’s fourth-ranked) making his MLB debut on 8/13. The 23-year-old pushes Spenser Watkins to next week’s Toronto series along with Bradish. The timing is curious since Hall hasn’t exactly been lighting it up since his promotion to Triple-A.
Danger Zone: Rich Hill124 (ATL, NYY), Kyle Bradish137 (TOR, @TB), Tyler AlexanderNR (CLE, @CHW), Justin DunnNR (@NYM, CHC), Tommy HenryNR (PIT, @COL), Aníbal SánchezNR & Paolo EspinoNR (@CHC, SD), Zach ThompsonNR & Tyler BeedeNR (@ARI, @SF)
*Michael Wacha will return 8/14 from the IL, costing Hill’s second start if you were even considering it. He retired 14 of the 15 hitters he faced in a rehab outing with Triple-A Worcester on Thursday, including the first 13 in a row. Overall, he pitched 4.2 innings and struck out eight while walking one. If he only needs one more rehab appearance Tuesday, he theoretically would be available by the end of the week. The two could pitch in tandem since Hill is available out of the pen, according to manager Alex Cora. Due to the Nats skipping Patrick Corbin through this turn, Espino picks up a second start, FWIW. Also, the 8/10 PPD wipes Bradish’s second stanza.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 8 – 14
#91 George Kirby (@TEX) – Rather than skipping Kirby to manage his innings, SEA will shift a struggling Chris Flexen to a long-relief role in the bullpen for the time being. Flexen could return to the rotation if Kirby reaches his max, or possibly SEA opts to pitch the two in tandem. Kirby is listed as the starter for 8/12, so this game should be a good indication of the team’s plans.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Clayton Kershaw – 15-day IL, Back (Retro 8/5)
As expected, Kersh hit the injured list on Friday due to his ailing lower back. MRI results were positive, showing no further damage to the area. He received an epidural injection and remains without a timetable for rehab. The left-hander has been on the injured list with back trouble in five of the last seven seasons.
George Springer – 10-day IL, Right Elbow Inflammation (Retro 8/5)
Springer was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday with right elbow inflammation. He’s been dealing with the issue for weeks, but planned off-days haven’t been enough for the elbow to get back to 100 percent. He isn’t expected to need more than the 10 days required on the IL. In the meantime, Whit Merrifield will continue seeing time in CF with Santiago Espinal remaining at the keystone.
Anthony Rizzo – DTD, Back
Rizzo was scratched from Friday’s starting lineup due to back soreness and was out of the lineup again Saturday. He missed four games in early July because of the same ailment. He’s unlikely to play Sunday against the Cardinals, according to Brendan Kuty of The Newark Star-Ledger.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – 60-day IL, Recovery from Wrist Surgery
After many trials with bat swinging, Tatis participated in his first game in more than 10 months on Saturday as he began rehabbing with Double-A San Antonio. He saw the ball well despite the extended absence, walking twice in an 0-for-2 night. The team is hoping Tatis will be ready for activation by the middle of August, although no timetable has been set by Padres manager Bob Melvin.
Lance McCullers Jr. – 60-day IL, Right Flexor Tendon
McCullers will make his fourth Minor League rehab start at Triple-A Sugar Land on 8/7 and could then face a decision on whether he’s ready to be activated for his season debut. He could slot perfectly in Jake Odorizzi’s spot and pitch 8/12 vs. OAK, a fine darn first matchup to make a return.
Tylor Megill – 60-day IL, Right Shoulder Strain
Four weeks have elapsed since Megill was shut down from throwing. The 27-year-old is now in the process of building back up, which could be a quick process if the Mets are indeed intent on converting Megill to a multi-inning pen role, one which makes sense to have him back quicker while preparing for his likely role in the playoffs. Fantasy-wise, it’s a bummer except if your league values holds. But as the season grows late, I like having arms like this for cheap ratio improvements (think Aaron Bummer when he’s on). Megill, who has been out since mid-June, has a bullpen session scheduled for 8/13.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Braxton Garrett88, LH MIA (@PHI, ATL; 19% rostered in redraft, 62% dynasty) – He comes with some worts and the return of bloody-awful Trevor Rogers, who could wipe away the second start. But I’m here for the K upside. I was told there would be cake strikeouts.
Honorable Mention: Keegan Thompson71, RH CHC (WSH, @CIN; 36%, 62%) – Fool me once with Keegan, shame on you. But fooling me twice? Well, you know the saying. However, this week, he would have five days rest to finally net the two starts. He’s an HM cause CHC will probably wind up with a spot start come Cincinnatti, but you gotta love that home start vs. the Nats with his home/road splits (2.50 Home ERA / 5.09 Road ERA).
Solo Start: José Quintana75, LH STL (@COL; 27%, 66%) – Look, before you have my head, hear me out. This is a classic flip-flop recommendation. No secret that I’ve been hyper-critical of Quintana all season. But even I have to admit the dude is enticing a bevy of ground balls this season (45.3% GB rate). This bodes well for his start at Coors Field. However, Quintana now sports the fifth-best defensive runs saved (DFS) defense behind him. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but the K/BB rate is 2.91, which plays.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!